{"id":54492,"date":"2019-12-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-12-26T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/modelirovanie-raboty-realnoj-tets-dlya-optimizatsii-rezhimov-par-i-matematika"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:02:30","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:02:30","slug":"modelirovanie-raboty-realnoj-tets-dlya-optimizatsii-rezhimov-par-i-matematika","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/az\/blog\/administrirovanie\/modelirovanie-raboty-realnoj-tets-dlya-optimizatsii-rezhimov-par-i-matematika","title":{"rendered":"Reall\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259ks etdir\u0259n \u0130ST \u0130TT-nin i\u015fini modell\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn optimalla\u015fd\u0131rma rejiml\u0259ri: buxar v\u0259 riyaziyyat","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Reall\u0131\u011f\u0131
\n
\nB\u00f6y\u00fck bir \u0130T\u018fS var. Adi qaydada i\u015fl\u0259yir: qaz yand\u0131r\u0131r, evl\u0259ri isitm\u0259y\u0259 istilik istehsal edir v\u0259 \u015f\u0259b\u0259k\u0259y\u0259 elektrik verir. Birinci v\u0259zif\u0259 - isitm\u0259. \u0130kincisi - istehsal olunan b\u00fct\u00fcn elektri\u011fi topdan bazarda satmaq. B\u0259z\u0259n soyuqda ayd\u0131n havada qar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr, amma bu, suvarma sisteminin i\u015fl\u0259m\u0259sinin yan t\u0259siridir.<\/p>\n

Orta \u0130T\u018fS bir ne\u00e7\u0259 onlarla turbin v\u0259 qozb\u00f6rekd\u0259n ibar\u0259tdir. Laz\u0131m olan elektrik v\u0259 istilik istehsal\u0131n\u0131n d\u0259qiq h\u0259cmi m\u0259lumdursa, v\u0259zif\u0259 yanacaq x\u0259rcl\u0259rini minimalla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa endirilir. Bu halda, hesablamalar, turbin v\u0259 qozb\u00f6rekl\u0259rin t\u0259rkibi v\u0259 y\u00fckl\u0259nm\u0259 faizi se\u00e7imi il\u0259 maksimum s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyi t\u0259min etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn apar\u0131l\u0131r. Turbin v\u0259 qozb\u00f6rekl\u0259rin s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyi avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n n\u00f6v\u00fcnd\u0259n, t\u0259mir vaxt\u0131ndan, i\u015f rejimind\u0259n v\u0259 daha bir \u00e7ox amild\u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u0259 as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Ba\u015fqa bir m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 var: elektrik qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri v\u0259 istilik h\u0259cml\u0259ri m\u0259lum olduqda, t\u0259qdim olunmal\u0131 olan elektrik h\u0259cmini v\u0259 sat\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u0259r\u0259kdiyini nec\u0259 h\u0259ll etm\u0259kdir ki, topdan bazarda maksimum g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 edilsin. Bu zaman optimalla\u015fd\u0131rma faktoru - g\u0259lir v\u0259 avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyi - \u00e7ox az \u00f6n\u0259m k\u0259sb edir. N\u0259tic\u0259, avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tamamil\u0259 effektiv olmayan bir rejimd\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259diyi ola bil\u0259r, amma istehsal olunan b\u00fct\u00fcn elektrik h\u0259cmi maksimum marja il\u0259 sat\u0131la bil\u0259r. <\/p>\n

Teorikada, b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar \u00e7oxdan ayd\u0131nd\u0131r v\u0259 g\u00f6z\u0259l s\u0259sl\u0259nir. Problem - bunu praktikada nec\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irm\u0259kdir. Biz h\u0259r bir avadanl\u0131q vahidinin v\u0259 stansiyan\u0131n \u00fcmumi i\u015fini simulyasiya etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn imitasiyal\u0131 modell\u0259m\u0259 prosesi ba\u015flad\u0131q. \u0130T\u018fS-\u0259 g\u0259ldik v\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcy\u00fcnl\u0259rin parametrl\u0259rini toplama\u011fa ba\u015flad\u0131q, onlar\u0131n real x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259rini \u00f6l\u00e7d\u00fck v\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif rejiml\u0259rd\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259m\u0259sini qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirdik. Bunlar \u0259sas\u0131nda h\u0259r bir avadanl\u0131q vahidinin d\u0259qiq modell\u0259rini yaradaraq, onlar\u0131 optimalla\u015fd\u0131rma hesablamalar\u0131nda istifad\u0259 etdik. \u0130r\u0259lil\u0259yi\u015fi n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, dem\u0259k ist\u0259yir\u0259m ki, sad\u0259c\u0259 riyaziyyatdan istifad\u0259 etm\u0259kl\u0259 faktiki s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyi t\u0259xmin\u0259n 4% art\u0131rd\u0131q.<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu. Amma bizim h\u0259ll\u0259rimizd\u0259n dan\u0131\u015fmadan \u0259vv\u0259l, \u0130T\u018fS-in q\u0259rar q\u0259bul etm\u0259 m\u0259ntiqi bax\u0131m\u0131ndan nec\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259diyini izah ed\u0259c\u0259y\u0259m. <\/p>\n

\u018fsas \u015feyl\u0259r<\/h3>\n

\nElektrik stansiyas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259sas elementl\u0259ri - qozb\u00f6rek v\u0259 turbinl\u0259rdir. Turbinl\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k t\u0259zyiqli buxarla d\u00f6vr edilir v\u0259 bununla elektrik enerjisini istehsal ed\u0259n elektrik generatorlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6vr edir. Buxar enerji qal\u0131qlar\u0131 istilik v\u0259 isti suya gedir. Qozb\u00f6rek - buxar yarad\u0131lan yerdir. Qozb\u00f6rek isitm\u0259k v\u0259 buxar turbinini i\u015f\u0259 salmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox vaxt (saatlar) s\u0259rf olunur, bu da yanacaq itkil\u0259ri dem\u0259kdir. Y\u00fck\u00fcn d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dar da eyni hal ba\u015f verir. Bu c\u00fcr \u015feyl\u0259ri \u00f6nc\u0259d\u0259n planlamaq laz\u0131m g\u0259lir. <\/p>\n

T\u018fH sistemi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn minimum texniki t\u0259l\u0259bl\u0259r var ki, bunlara evl\u0259r v\u0259 s\u0259naye istehlak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r istilik t\u0259min edilm\u0259sini \u0259hat\u0259 ed\u0259n minimum, lakin sabit i\u015f rejimi daxildir. Ad\u0259t\u0259n, t\u0259l\u0259b olunan istilik miqdar\u0131 birba\u015fa hava temperaturundan as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n

H\u0259r bir qur\u011funun effektivliyi g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n bir \u0259yri var v\u0259 maksimum effektivlik n\u00f6qt\u0259si m\u00f6vcuddur: m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n bir y\u00fckl\u0259m\u0259 alt\u0131nda, m\u00fcvafiq bir qazan v\u0259 turbin \u0259n ucuz elektrik enerjisi istehsal edir. Ucuz \u2014 minimum konkret yanacaq istehlak\u0131 anlam\u0131nda. <\/p>\n

Rusiyada yerl\u0259\u015f\u0259n \u0259ks\u0259r T\u018fH-l\u0259r paralel \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259yir, burada b\u00fct\u00fcn qazanlar bir buhar kollektoruna v\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn turbinl\u0259r d\u0259 bir kollektorla qidalan\u0131r. Bu, avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckl\u0259nm\u0259sind\u0259 \u00e7evikliyi art\u0131r\u0131r, lakin hesablamalar\u0131 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015fdirir. B\u0259z\u0259n stansiyan\u0131n avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 f\u0259rqli t\u0259zyiq kollektorlar\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan hiss\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcr. \u0130\u00e7\u0259rid\u0259ki ehtiyaclar \u2014 nasoslar, ventilyatorlar, torlu havaland\u0131rma sisteml\u0259ri v\u0259, g\u00fcnah\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz\u0259 y\u00fckl\u0259m\u0259kd\u0259ns\u0259, T\u018fH-nin arxas\u0131nda olan saunalar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn s\u0259rf olunan x\u0259rcl\u0259ri \u0259lav\u0259 ets\u0259k, burada art\u0131q \u00e7\u0259tinlik yaran\u0131r.<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn avadanl\u0131qlar\u0131n x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri qeyri-x\u0259tti xarakter da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. H\u0259r bir avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckl\u0259m\u0259 xarakteristikalar\u0131 var ki, KPI burada f\u0259rqli olur: 70% y\u00fckl\u0259nm\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259tind\u0259 bir KPI, 30% v\u0259ziyy\u0259tind\u0259 is\u0259 ba\u015fqa bir KPI. <\/p>\n

Avadanl\u0131qlar\u0131n x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri aras\u0131nda f\u0259rqlilikl\u0259r var. Yeni v\u0259 k\u00f6hn\u0259 turbinl\u0259r v\u0259 qazlar m\u00f6vcuddur, f\u0259rqli qurulu\u015flara malik avadanl\u0131qlar var. Avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczg\u00fcn se\u00e7\u0259r\u0259k v\u0259 onu maksimum KPI n\u00f6qt\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 optimal y\u00fckl\u0259m\u0259 il\u0259 y\u00fckl\u0259y\u0259r\u0259k, yanacaq istehlak\u0131n\u0131 azaldaraq maliyy\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rini azaltmaq v\u0259 ya daha y\u00fcks\u0259k marjinal\u0131q \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. <\/p>\n

\"Reall\u0131\u011f\u0131
\n<\/p>\n

T\u018fH nec\u0259 bilm\u0259kd\u0259dir ki, n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r enerji istehsal etm\u0259lidir?<\/h3>\n

\nPlanla\u015fd\u0131rma \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u0259vv\u0259l h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilir: \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u0259rzind\u0259 avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n plan\u0131 m\u0259lum olur. Bu, i\u015f\u0259 sal\u0131nacaq turbinl\u0259r v\u0259 qazanlard\u0131r. \u015e\u0259rti olaraq des\u0259k, bu g\u00fcn be\u015f qazan v\u0259 on turbinin i\u015fl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yi bilinir. Ba\u015fqa avadanl\u0131qlar\u0131 i\u015f\u0259 salmaq v\u0259 ya planla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015flar\u0131 dayand\u0131rmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil, lakin h\u0259r qazan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn y\u00fck\u00fc minimumdan maksimuma q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015fdirm\u0259k, turbinl\u0259rl\u0259 is\u0259 g\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131rmaq v\u0259 azaltmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Maksimumdan minimuma ke\u00e7id m\u00fcdd\u0259ti avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n n\u00f6v\u00fcnd\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olaraq 15-30 d\u0259qiq\u0259dir. Burada v\u0259zif\u0259 sad\u0259dir: optimal rejiml\u0259ri se\u00e7m\u0259k v\u0259 onlar\u0131 \u0259m\u0259liyyat d\u00fcz\u0259li\u015fl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq saxlamaq. <\/p>\n

\"Reall\u0131\u011f\u0131
\n
\nBu avadanl\u0131q t\u0259rkibi haradan g\u0259ldi?<\/b> O, ticar\u0259t n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdi. G\u00fcc v\u0259 elektrik enerjisi bazar\u0131 var. G\u00fcc bazar\u0131nda istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar elan verirl\u0259r: \"Bel\u0259 bir avadanl\u0131k var, planl\u0131 t\u0259mir i\u015fl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmaqla, bel\u0259 minimal v\u0259 maksimum g\u00fcc. Biz 150 MW bel\u0259 bir qiym\u0259t\u0259, 200 MW \u2014 bel\u0259 bir qiym\u0259t\u0259, 300 MW \u2014 bel\u0259 bir qiym\u0259t\u0259 ver\u0259 bil\u0259rik\". Bunlar uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli elanlard\u0131r. Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, b\u00f6y\u00fck istehlak\u00e7\u0131lar da elan verirl\u0259r: \"Biz\u0259 bu q\u0259d\u0259r enerji laz\u0131md\u0131r\". Konkret qiym\u0259tl\u0259r, elektrik istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n ver\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yi il\u0259 istehlak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131nda k\u0259si\u015fm\u0259 an\u0131nda m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilir. Bu g\u00fccl\u0259r h\u0259r saat \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilir.<\/p>\n

\"Reall\u0131\u011f\u0131
\n
\nAd\u0259t\u0259n, \u0130T\u018fC eyni y\u00fckl\u0259nm\u0259 il\u0259 m\u00f6vs\u00fcm boyunca f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259rir: q\u0131\u015fda \u0259sas m\u0259hsul istilik, yayda is\u0259 elektrik enerjisidir. G\u00fccl\u00fc dal\u011falar ad\u0259t\u0259n stansiyan\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259 v\u0259 ya eyni qiym\u0259t zonas\u0131ndak\u0131 qon\u015fu elektrik stansiyalar\u0131nda ba\u015f ver\u0259n q\u0259zalardan yaran\u0131r. Lakin h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 dal\u011falanmalar m\u00f6vcuddur v\u0259 bu dal\u011falanmalar stansiyan\u0131n iqtisadi s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyin\u0259 ciddi t\u0259sir edir. Laz\u0131mi g\u00fcc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 qazanla, h\u0259r biri 50 % y\u00fckl\u0259nm\u0259 il\u0259, ya da iki qazanla, h\u0259r biri 75 % y\u00fckl\u0259nm\u0259 il\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr v\u0259 hamper verdirm\u0259 metodlar\u0131ndan daha effektiv oldu\u011fu m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edilir. <\/p>\n

Marlayla, bazar qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259n v\u0259 elektrik istehsal\u0131n\u0131n istehsal d\u0259y\u0259rind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Bazar qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri o c\u00fcr formala\u015fa bil\u0259r ki, yanaca\u011f\u0131 faydal\u0131 \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 yan\u0131b, lakin elektrik enerjisini yax\u015f\u0131 satmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur. V\u0259 ola bil\u0259r ki, konkret saatda texniki minimuma ke\u00e7m\u0259k v\u0259 z\u0259r\u0259rl\u0259ri azaltmaq laz\u0131md\u0131r. H\u0259m\u00e7inin, yanacaq ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini unutmaq olmaz: eyni t\u0259bii qaz ad\u0259t\u0259n m\u0259hduddur, amma h\u0259ddind\u0259n art\u0131q olan qaz daha da bahal\u0131d\u0131r, dem\u0259k olar ki, mazutdan dan\u0131\u015fm\u0131ram. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar hans\u0131 elanlar\u0131n verilm\u0259si v\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n \u015f\u0259rait\u0259 nec\u0259 reaksiya verilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259qiq riyaz\u0131 modell\u0259r t\u0259l\u0259b edir. <\/p>\n

Bizim g\u0259li\u015fimizd\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259l bunun nec\u0259 edildiyi<\/h3>\n

\nDem\u0259k olar ki, ka\u011f\u0131z \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 d\u0259qiq olmayan avadanl\u0131q x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri il\u0259, bunlar real olanlardan kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r f\u0259rqlidir. Avadanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n testl\u0259rind\u0259n sonra, \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda, faktiki g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rd\u0259n 2 % f\u0259rql\u0259n\u0259c\u0259k, bir ild\u0259n sonra is\u0259 7-8 % f\u0259rq olacaq. Testl\u0259r is\u0259 be\u015f ild\u0259n bir, b\u0259z\u0259n daha az ke\u00e7irilir.<\/p>\n

Dig\u0259r bir m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259, b\u00fct\u00fcn hesablamalar\u0131n \u015f\u0259rti yanacaqla apar\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. SSR\u0130-d\u0259, m\u00fcxt\u0259lif stansiyalar\u0131n mazut, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, qaz, atom enerji istehsal\u0131 v\u0259 s. \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcqayis\u0259 aparmaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n bir \u015f\u0259rti yanacaq sxemi q\u0259bul edilmi\u015fdir. H\u0259r bir generatorun effektivliyini anlamaq laz\u0131m idi v\u0259 \u015f\u0259rti yanacaq m\u0259hz bu effektivliyi ifad\u0259 ed\u0259n g\u00f6st\u0259ricidir. Yanaca\u011f\u0131n kaloriliyi il\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilir: bir ton \u015f\u0259rti yanacaq t\u0259xmin\u0259n bir ton da\u015f k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259rdir. M\u00fcxt\u0259lif yanacaq n\u00f6vl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7evrilm\u0259 c\u0259dv\u0259ll\u0259ri m\u00f6vcuddur. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, q\u0259hv\u0259yi k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r dem\u0259k olar ki, iki d\u0259f\u0259 pisdir. Lakin kaloriliyin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rl\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259si yoxdur. Bu, benzin v\u0259 dizel kimidir: \u0259g\u0259r dizel 35 rubl, 92-ci benzin is\u0259 32 rubl olursa, dizelin kaloriliyi daha effektiv ola bil\u0259r dem\u0259k deyil. <\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc amil \u2013 hesablamalar\u0131n \u00e7\u0259tinliyi. \u015e\u0259rti olaraq bir i\u015f\u00e7inin t\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259sin\u0259 \u0259saslanaraq iki-\u00fc\u00e7 variant hesablan\u0131r, daha \u00e7ox is\u0259 ox\u015far y\u00fck v\u0259 hava \u015f\u0259raiti d\u00f6vr\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn tarixi ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259ki \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 rejim se\u00e7ilir. T\u0259bii ki, i\u015f\u00e7il\u0259r \u0259n optimal rejiml\u0259ri se\u00e7dikl\u0259rin\u0259 inan\u0131rlar v\u0259 hesab edirl\u0259r ki, he\u00e7 bir riyazi model onlar\u0131 he\u00e7 vaxt \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259m\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. <\/p>\n

Biz g\u0259lirik. Problemi h\u0259ll etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, biz r\u0259q\u0259msal \u0259kiz \u2013 stansiyan\u0131n simulyasiya modelini haz\u0131rlay\u0131r\u0131q. Bu, biz x\u00fcsusi yana\u015fmalarla h\u0259r bir avadanl\u0131q vahidi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00fcn t\u0259mm\u0259k prosesl\u0259rini imitasiya ed\u0259r\u0259k, buxar v\u0259 enerjinin tarazl\u0131qlar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n ed\u0259r\u0259k T\u042d\u0426-nin d\u0259qiq i\u015f modelini \u0259ld\u0259 edirik. <\/p>\n

Modeli yaratmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn biz a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131lardan istifad\u0259 edirik: <\/p>\n