{"id":36826,"date":"2019-10-31T22:14:01","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T19:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/aleksej-savvateev-nobelevskaya-premiya-zhana-tirolya-za-analiz-nesovershennyh-rynkov-2014-i-kollektivnuyu-reputatsiyu\/"},"modified":"2019-10-31T22:14:01","modified_gmt":"2019-10-31T19:14:01","slug":"aleksej-savvateev-nobelevskaya-premiya-zhana-tirolya-za-analiz-nesovershennyh-rynkov-2014-i-kollektivnuyu-reputatsiyu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/cs\/blog\/news\/aleksej-savvateev-nobelevskaya-premiya-zhana-tirolya-za-analiz-nesovershennyh-rynkov-2014-i-kollektivnuyu-reputatsiyu","title":{"rendered":"Alexej Savvatejev: Nobelova cena Jeana Tirole za anal\u00fdzu nedokonal\u00fdch trh\u016f (2014) a kolektivn\u00ed reputaci","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Alexej
\n
\nKdybych m\u011bl ud\u011blit Nobelovu cenu Jeanovi Tiroleovi, dal bych ji za jeho teoreticko-hern\u00ed anal\u00fdzu reputace, nebo bych ji alespo\u0148 zahrnul do formulace. Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o p\u0159\u00edpad, kdy na\u0161e intuice dob\u0159e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 modelu, i kdy\u017e je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 tento model ov\u011b\u0159it. Je to typ modelu, kter\u00fd je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 nebo nemo\u017en\u00e9 ov\u011b\u0159it \u010di vyvr\u00e1tit. Ale ta my\u0161lenka se mi zd\u00e1 naprosto brilantn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nobelova cena<\/h3>\n

\nPozad\u00ed ceny \u2014 kone\u010dn\u00fd odklon od jednotn\u00e9 koncepce obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy jako anal\u00fdzy jak\u00e9koli ekonomick\u00e9 situace.<\/p>\n

Omlouv\u00e1m se ekonom\u016fm v t\u00e9to m\u00edstnosti, stru\u010dn\u011b vysv\u011btl\u00edm z\u00e1klady teorie obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy za 20 minut.<\/p>\n

1950<\/h3>\n

\nP\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1zor, \u017ee ekonomick\u00fd syst\u00e9m se \u0159\u00edd\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdmi z\u00e1kony (jako fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed realita \u2014 Newtonov\u00fdmi z\u00e1kony). To bylo oslavou p\u0159\u00edstupu spojen\u00ed cel\u00e9 v\u011bdy pod jakousi spole\u010dnou st\u0159echou. Jak vypad\u00e1 tato st\u0159echa.
\n<\/a><\/noindex>
\nExistuje trh. Existuje ur\u010dit\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed (n) dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, spot\u0159ebitel\u016f statk\u016f, t\u011bch, pro kter\u00e9 trh funguje (statky se spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vaj\u00ed). A ur\u010dit\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed (J) subjekt\u016f tohoto trhu (v\u00fdrobci statk\u016f). Zisk ka\u017ed\u00e9ho v\u00fdrobce je jaksi rozd\u011blen mezi spot\u0159ebitele.<\/p>\n

Existuj\u00ed produkty 1, 2\u2026 L. Produkt je n\u011bco, co lze spot\u0159ebovat. Pokud se fyzicky jedn\u00e1 o stejn\u00fd produkt, ale je spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1n v jinou dobu nebo na r\u016fzn\u00fdch m\u00edstech, pak se jedn\u00e1 u\u017e o r\u016fzn\u00e9 produkty.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nStatek v okam\u017eiku spot\u0159eby v dan\u00e9m bod\u011b. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b, statek nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt dlouhodob\u011b pou\u017eiteln\u00fd. (Ne automobily, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e potraviny, i to ne ka\u017ed\u00e9).<\/p>\n

Tak m\u00e1me prostor RL v\u00fdrobn\u00edch pl\u00e1n\u016f. L-rozm\u011brn\u00fd prostor, ka\u017ed\u00fd vektor je interpretov\u00e1n takto. Bereme sou\u0159adnice, kde jsou z\u00e1porn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla, str\u010d\u00edme je do \"\u010dern\u00e9 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ky\" v\u00fdroby a vyd\u00e1me kladn\u00e9 komponenty toho sam\u00e9ho vektoru. <\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad (2,-1,3) znamen\u00e1, \u017ee z 1 jednotky druh\u00e9ho statku m\u016f\u017eeme ud\u011blat 2 jednotky prvn\u00edho a t\u0159i jednotky t\u0159et\u00edho sou\u010dasn\u011b. Pokud pat\u0159\u00ed tento vektor do mno\u017einy v\u00fdrobn\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nY1, Y2\u2026 YJ \u2014 podmno\u017einy v RL. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 v\u00fdroba \u2014 \"\u010dern\u00e1 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ka\".<\/p>\n

Ceny (p1, p2\u2026 pL)\u2026 co d\u011blaj\u00ed? Padaj\u00ed ze stropu.<\/p>\n

Jste mana\u017eer firmy. Firma \u2014 soubor v\u00fdrobn\u00edch pl\u00e1n\u016f, kter\u00e9 lze realizovat. Co d\u011blat, pokud dostanete takov\u00fd sign\u00e1l \u2014 (p1, p2\u2026 pL)?<\/p>\n

Klasick\u00e1 ekonomie v\u00e1m na\u0159izuje ohodnotit v\u0161echny vektory pV, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1te k dispozici, a ocenit je podle t\u011bchto cen.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nA maximalizujeme pV, kde V vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z Yj. To se naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u041fj(\u0440).<\/p>\n

Na v\u00e1s se sn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed ceny, je v\u00e1m ozn\u00e1meno a mus\u00edte bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u011b uv\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee ceny budou takov\u00e9. To se naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201echov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed cen\u201c. <\/p>\n

Po p\u0159ijet\u00ed sign\u00e1lu z \"cen\" ka\u017ed\u00e1 z firem vyprodukovala P1(r), P2(r)\u2026 PJ(r). Co se s nimi d\u011bje? Lev\u00e1 polovina, spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9, ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich m\u00e1 po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed zdroje w1(r), w2\u2026 wJ(r) a pod\u00edly z zisk\u016f ve firm\u00e1ch \u03b411, \u03b412\u2026 \u03b41J, kter\u00e9 budou generov\u00e1ny vpravo.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nMohou b\u00fdt n\u00edzk\u00e9 po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed w, ale pod\u00edly mohou b\u00fdt vysok\u00e9, tak\u017ee hr\u00e1\u010d vych\u00e1z\u00ed z velk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu.<\/p>\n

Spot\u0159ebitel m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 preference \u05d0. Ty jsou mu p\u0159edur\u010deny a nezm\u011bniteln\u00e9. Preference mu umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed porovnat jak\u00e9koli vektory z RL navz\u00e1jem podle \u201ekvality\u201c, z jeho pohledu. \u00dapln\u00e9 porozum\u011bn\u00ed sob\u011b. Nikdy jste nezkusili \u201eban\u00e1n\u201c (j\u00e1 ho okusil ve 10 letech), ale m\u00e1te o n\u011bm p\u0159edstavu, jak v\u00e1m bude chutnat. Velmi siln\u00e9 informa\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady. <\/p>\n

Spot\u0159ebitel prov\u00e1d\u00ed ocen\u011bn\u00ed podle cen sv\u00e9ho po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1soby pwi a p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 si pod\u00edly ze zisku:<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nSpot\u0159ebitel tak\u00e9 bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm cen\u00e1m a vyhodnocuje sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edjem. Pot\u00e9 za\u010dne utr\u00e1cet a dost\u00e1v\u00e1 se na hranici sv\u00fdch pen\u011b\u017en\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nSpot\u0159ebitel maximalizuje sv\u00e9 preference. Funkci u\u017eite\u010dnosti. Kter\u00e9 x i mu p\u0159inese v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed u\u017eitek. Paradigma racion\u00e1ln\u00edho chov\u00e1n\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Prob\u00edh\u00e1 kompletn\u00ed decentralizace. Z nebe na v\u00e1s padaj\u00ed ceny. Podle t\u011bchto cen v\u0161echny firmy maximalizuj\u00ed zisk. V\u0161echny spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 dostanou sv\u00e9 pouk\u00e1zky a d\u011blaj\u00ed s nimi, co cht\u011bj\u00ed, jak cht\u011bj\u00ed (maximalizuj\u00edc\u00ed funkci u\u017eite\u010dnosti) utr\u00e1c\u00ed za dostupn\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed, za existuj\u00edc\u00ed ceny. Vznikaj\u00ed prooptimalizovan\u00e9 Xi(\u0440).<\/p>\n

D\u00e1le se tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ceny jsou rovnov\u00e1\u017en\u00e9, \u0440*, pokud jsou v\u0161echna rozhodnut\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch agent\u016f navz\u00e1jem shodn\u00e1. Co to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jsou shodn\u00e1?<\/p>\n

Co bylo? Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1soby, ka\u017ed\u00e1 firma zv\u00fd\u0161ila sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed pl\u00e1n:<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nTo je to, co m\u00e1me. A to mus\u00ed b\u00fdt rovno tomu, co po\u017eadovali spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9:<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nCeny \u0440* se naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed rovnov\u00e1\u017en\u00e9, pokud se spln\u00ed toto rovnice. Je jich tolik rovnic, kolik je zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

To je rok 1880, L\u00e9on Walras<\/a><\/noindex> Jej\u00ed propagaci se v\u011bnovali a 79 let matematici-ekonomov\u00e9 hledali d\u016fkaz, \u017ee takov\u00fd vyrovn\u00e1vac\u00ed vektor existuje. To se z\u00fa\u017eilo na velmi obt\u00ed\u017enou topologii a nemohlo to b\u00fdt prok\u00e1z\u00e1no a\u017e do roku 1941, kdy bylo prok\u00e1z\u00e1no Cauchyho v\u011bta<\/a><\/noindex>. V roce 1951 byla pln\u011b prok\u00e1z\u00e1na v\u011bta o existenci rovnov\u00e1hy. <\/p>\n

Ale postupn\u011b se tento model p\u0159etvo\u0159il v klasickou historii ekonomick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je nutn\u00e9 proj\u00edt celou cestu osobn\u011b a zkoumat zastaral\u00e9 modely. Analyzovat, pro\u010d nefungovaly. Kde byly p\u0159esn\u011b n\u00e1mitky. Pak budete m\u00edt zku\u0161enost, dobr\u00fd historick\u00fd exkurz.<\/p>\n

Historie ekonomie by m\u011bla studovat v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fd model v detailu, proto\u017ee v\u0161echny modern\u00ed modely trhu z n\u011bj vyr\u016fstaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1mitky<\/h3>\n

\n1. V\u0161echny zbo\u017e\u00ed jsou pops\u00e1ny extr\u00e9mn\u011b abstraktn\u011b.<\/b> Nen\u00ed zohledn\u011bna struktura spot\u0159eby t\u011bchto zbo\u017e\u00ed a zbo\u017e\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 spot\u0159eby.<\/p>\n

2. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 v\u00fdroba, firma \u2014 \"\u010dern\u00e1 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ka\"<\/b>. Je pops\u00e1na \u010dist\u011b axiomatically. Bere se mno\u017estv\u00ed vektor\u016f, prohla\u0161uje se za p\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

3. \"Neviditeln\u00e1 ruka trhu\"<\/b>, ceny padaj\u00ed z nebe.<\/p>\n

4. Firmy prost\u011b maximalizuj\u00ed zisk P.<\/b><\/p>\n

5. Mechanismus dosahov\u00e1n\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy<\/b>. (Jak ho \"nalezenou\", za\u010dne se ka\u017ed\u00fd fyzik sm\u00e1t?). Jak prok\u00e1zat jeho jedine\u010dnost a stabilitu (alespo\u0148).<\/p>\n

6. Nepodm\u00edn\u011bnost modelu<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Podm\u00edn\u011bnost.<\/b> M\u00e1m model a podle n\u011bj \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m, \u017ee v \u017eivot\u011b nemohou nastat takov\u00e9 a takov\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 m\u016f\u017ee nastat, ale ten nikdy, proto\u017ee m\u016fj model zaru\u010duje, \u017ee v t\u00e9 t\u0159\u00edd\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt rovnov\u00e1ha. Pokud p\u0159edlo\u017e\u00edte proti-p\u0159\u00edklad, \u0159eknu - to je pr\u00e1v\u011b hranice pou\u017eitelnosti, m\u016fj model v tomto bod\u011b z r\u016fzn\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f selh\u00e1v\u00e1. S teori\u00ed obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy to nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 a to je d\u016fvod pro\u010d.<\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee... \u010d\u00edm se ur\u010duje chov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu mimo rovnov\u00e1hu? Pro n\u011bjak\u00e9 \"r\"? M\u016f\u017eeme postavit p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed popt\u00e1vky nad nab\u00eddkou.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nMy nab\u00edz\u00edme ceny z nebe a p\u0159esn\u011b v\u00edme, jak\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed bude chyb\u011bt a jak\u00e9ho bude nadbytek. O tomto sm\u011bru m\u016f\u017eeme ur\u010dit\u011b \u0159\u00edci (teor\u00e9m z roku 1970), \u017ee pokud jsou spln\u011bny trivi\u00e1ln\u00ed vlastnosti, pak lze v\u017edy sestavit takov\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd syst\u00e9m (uv\u00e9st po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed data), ve kter\u00e9m tato funkce bude funkc\u00ed nadbyte\u010dn\u00e9ho popt\u00e1vky. P\u0159i jak\u00fdchkoli stanoven\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch bude vyd\u00e1v\u00e1na p\u0159esn\u011b ta hodnota nadbyte\u010dn\u00e9ho vektoru. M\u016f\u017eeme simulovat jak\u00e9koliv rozumn\u00e9 pozorovan\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed pomoc\u00ed modelu obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy. Takto je tento model - nevyvratiteln\u00fd. M\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt jak\u00e9koliv chov\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e sni\u017euje jeho praktick\u00fd smysl.<\/p>\n

Ve dvou m\u00edstech model obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy st\u00e1le funguje v explicitn\u00ed podob\u011b. Existuj\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed modely obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy, kter\u00e9 zohled\u0148uj\u00ed makroekonomiku zem\u00ed na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni agregace. Mo\u017en\u00e1 je to \u0161patn\u00e9, ale po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se. <\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9 - existuje velmi dobr\u00e1 mal\u00e1 specifikace, kde se v\u00fdrobn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st m\u011bn\u00ed, zat\u00edmco spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e1 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stejn\u00e1. To jsou modely monopolistick\u00e9 konkurence. M\u00edsto \"\u010dern\u00e9 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ky\" se objevuje vzorec, jak v\u00fdroba funguje, a m\u00edsto \"neviditeln\u00e9 ruky trhu\" se ukazuje, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 firma m\u00e1 ur\u010ditou monopoln\u00ed s\u00edlu. Hlavn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu je monopolistick\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 poznamenat, \u017ee ekonomice jsou kladeny p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 po\u017eadavky: \"Model mus\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddat, co se stane z\u00edtra\" a \"Co d\u011blat, pokud je situace \u0161patn\u00e1\". Tyto ot\u00e1zky v r\u00e1mci teorie obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy jsou naprosto bezp\u0159edm\u011btn\u00e9. Existuje teor\u00e9m (prvn\u00ed teor\u00e9m blahobytu): \"Obecn\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha je v\u017edy efektivn\u00ed podle Pareta\". To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee nelze zlep\u0161it situaci v tomto syst\u00e9mu pro v\u0161echny najednou. Pokud n\u011bkomu zlep\u0161ujete - d\u011bje se to na \u00fakor n\u011bkoho jin\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

Tento teor\u00e9m je v ostrem kontrastu s t\u00edm, co vid\u00edme kolem n\u00e1s, v\u010detn\u011b sedm\u00e9ho bodu:
\n7. \"V\u0161echny zbo\u017e\u00ed jsou soukrom\u00e9 a nejsou zde externality\"<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u011b \"propleteno\". Existuje mnoho p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f, kdy jednotliv\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed navz\u00e1jem (nap\u0159\u00edklad vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odpadn\u00edch vod do \u0159eky atd.). Z\u00e1sah m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st zlep\u0161en\u00ed pro v\u0161echny \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edky interakce.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed kniha Tyrola: \"The Theory of Industrial Organization\"<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nNelze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee trhy budou efektivn\u011b reagovat a produkovat efektivn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek; to vid\u00edme kolem sebe.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: Jak zas\u00e1hnout, abychom situaci napravili?<\/b> A neud\u011blat ji je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed?<\/p>\n

St\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee teoreticky je nutn\u00e9 zas\u00e1hnout, ale prakticky:
\n8. Chyb\u00ed informace, kter\u00e9 jsou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pro spr\u00e1vn\u00fd z\u00e1sah.<\/b><\/p>\n

V modelu obecn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy - \u00fapln\u00e9.<\/p>\n

U\u017e jsem \u0159ekl, \u017ee se to t\u00fdk\u00e1 preferenc\u00ed lid\u00ed. P\u0159i z\u00e1sahu je t\u0159eba zn\u00e1t tyto preference lid\u00ed. P\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee zasahujete do n\u011bjak\u00e9 situace, kterou za\u010dnete 'zlep\u0161ovat'. Mus\u00edte m\u00edt informace o tom, kdo a jak bude z tohoto 'trp\u011bt'. Ur\u010dit\u011b je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed agenti, kte\u0159\u00ed budou trp\u011bt m\u00e1lo, budou tvrdit, \u017ee trp\u00ed hodn\u011b. A ti, kdo vyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed jen trochu - \u017ee vyhr\u00e1li velmi v\u00fdrazn\u011b. Pokud nem\u00e1me mo\u017enost to prov\u011b\u0159it, nahl\u00e9dnout n\u011bkomu do hlavy a zjistit, jak\u00e1 je jeho funkce u\u017eite\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n

V 'neviditeln\u00e9 ruce trhu' nen\u00ed mechanismus cenotvorby, a v
\n9. konkurence je dokonal\u00e1<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Modern approaches to pricing often state that prices are set by someone who organizes the market. A significant percentage of contemporary deals occur through auctions. A very good alternative to this model, regarding distrust in the invisible hand of the market, is auction theory. The key element here is information. What information does the auctioneer have? I am currently working as an official opponent on a dissertation done by Yandex. Yandex conducts advertising auctions. They 'sell' you options. Yandex works out how best to 'sell' to you. The dissertation is absolutely brilliant, and one of the conclusions is completely unexpected: 'It is critically important to know for sure that there is a player with a very high bid.' Not an average (there are 30% of advertisers with extremely strong positions, requests), this information is nothing compared to knowing that one player has definitely entered the market and is trying to place this ad. This additional information significantly changes the participation threshold, greatly increasing the revenue from the sale of advertising space; it\u2019s astonishing. I never thought about this, but when I was explained the mechanism and shown the math, I had to admit that it is indeed true. Yandex implemented this and indeed saw an increase in profit.<\/p>\n

If you interfere with market actions, you need to understand what preferences different participants have. It becomes less obvious that interference is necessary.<\/p>\n

There is also a superficial understanding that can prove to be entirely incorrect. For instance, the superficial understanding of monopoly is that it is better to regulate it, for example, breaking it up into two, three, or four companies will lead to an oligopoly and improve public welfare. This is typical information from textbooks. But it depends on the circumstances. If you have durable goods, this behavioral model for the government can turn out to be completely detrimental. There was an example of this in reality zero years ago.<\/p>\n

Za\u010dali jsme vyd\u00e1vat desky \u201eRockov\u00e1 encyklopedie\u201c. V na\u0161\u00ed \u0161kole kolovaly n\u011bkter\u00e9 exempl\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 tvrdily, \u017ee jsou v omezen\u00e9m n\u00e1kladu a prod\u00e1valy se za 40 korun. Ub\u011bhly dva m\u011bs\u00edce a tyto desky byly zaplaveny v\u0161emi st\u00e1nky a st\u00e1lo to 3 koruny. Tito lid\u00e9 se sna\u017eili mystifikovat ve\u0159ejnost, \u017ee je to dokonal\u00fd exkluziv. Monopolista, pokud vyr\u00e1b\u00ed v\u00fdrobek s dlouhou \u017eivotnost\u00ed, za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 sout\u011b\u017eit s \u201e\u00e1m\u00fdm sebou z\u00edtra\u201c. Pokud se pokou\u0161\u00ed dnes prod\u00e1vat za vysokou cenu, z\u00edtra m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u011bco op\u011bt prod\u00e1no\/koupeno. Je pro n\u011bj t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit dne\u0161n\u00ed kupce, aby ne\u010dekali do z\u00edt\u0159ka. Ceny se dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je obvykl\u00e9. To bylo d\u016fkazem Coase<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n

Existuje \u201eCoasova hypot\u00e9za\u201c, kter\u00e1 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee monopolista s v\u00fdrobkem s dlouhou \u017eivotnost\u00ed, kter\u00fd \u010dasto p\u0159ehodnocuje svou cenovou politiku, zcela ztr\u00e1c\u00ed monopoln\u00ed moc. N\u00e1sledn\u011b to bylo p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b prok\u00e1z\u00e1no na z\u00e1klad\u011b teorie her.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee nezn\u00e1te tyto v\u00fdsledky a rozhodli jste se rozd\u011blit tuto monopolii. Vznikla oligopolii s v\u00fdrobky s dlouhou \u017eivotnost\u00ed. Je t\u0159eba ji dynamicky modelovat. Nakonec - udr\u017euj\u00ed monopoln\u00ed cenu! V\u0161echno je naopak. Detailn\u00ed anal\u00fdza trhu je nesm\u00edrn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1.<\/p>\n

10. Popt\u00e1vka<\/b><\/p>\n

Spot\u0159ebitel\u016f v zemi jsou miliony, v modelu dojde k agregaci. M\u00edsto obrovsk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed mal\u00fdch spot\u0159ebitel\u016f vznikne agregovan\u00fd spot\u0159ebitel. S t\u00edm je spojeno mnoho probl\u00e9m\u016f jak teoretick\u00e9ho, tak praktick\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu. <\/p>\n

Agregace je v rozporu s preferencemi a funkcemi u\u017eite\u010dnosti. (Borman, 1953). Agregovat lze identick\u00e9 s velmi jednoduch\u00fdmi preferencemi. Model bude ztr\u00e1tov\u00fd.<\/p>\n

V agregovan\u00e9m modelu je popt\u00e1vka \u010dern\u00e1 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ka.<\/p>\n

Byla ur\u010dit\u00e1 leteck\u00e1 spole\u010dnost. M\u011bla jeden let denn\u011b do Jekat\u011brinburgu. A pak jich bylo dva. A jeden z nich odl\u00e9t\u00e1 v 6 r\u00e1no z Moskvy. Pro\u010d?<\/p>\n

Segmentujete trh a pro \u201ebohat\u00e9\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed necht\u011bj\u00ed let\u011bt brzy, nastav\u00edte vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu.<\/p>\n

Existuje je\u0161t\u011b n\u00e1mitka racionality. \u017de se lid\u00e9 chovaj\u00ed iracion\u00e1ln\u011b. Ale na velk\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslech se postupn\u011b vyno\u0159uje racion\u00e1ln\u00ed pohled.<\/p>\n

Pokud chcete studovat ekonomii, za\u010dn\u011bte nejprve se z\u00e1kladn\u00edm modelem. Pot\u00e9 \"za\u010dn\u011bte pochybovat\" a prozkoumejte ka\u017edou n\u00e1mitku. Z ka\u017ed\u00e9 z nich se rod\u00ed cel\u00e1 v\u011bda! Pokud studujete v\u0161echny tyto \"kapitoly\", stanete se velmi vzd\u011blan\u00fdm ekonomem.<\/p>\n

Tyrol se objevil v zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bkolika \"n\u00e1mitek\". Ale Nobelovu cenu bych mu dal ne za to.<\/p>\n

Jak budovat reputaci<\/h3>\n

\nNavrhuji zamyslet se nad t\u011bmito p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy. A kdy\u017e budu mluvit o reputaci \u2013 probereme to.<\/p>\n

V roce 2005 byla v Gruzii provedena bezprecedentn\u00ed reforma. Byla propu\u0161t\u011bna CEL\u00c1 policie zem\u011b. To je prvn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh. Po rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed demonstrac\u00ed v letech 11-12 v Moskv\u011b dostali v\u0161ichni policist\u00e9 n\u00e1\u0161ivky a \u010d\u00edsla na ruk\u00e1vech.<\/p>\n

To jsou dva r\u016fzn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstupy k jedn\u00e9 a t\u00e9 sam\u00e9 v\u00fdzv\u011b. Jak se vyrovnat s extr\u00e9mn\u011b negativn\u00ed reputac\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9 komunity uvnit\u0159 zem\u011b nebo skupiny lid\u00ed?<\/p>\n

\"V\u0161echny propustit a najmout nov\u00e9\" nebo \"personalizovat n\u00e1sil\u00ed\".<\/p>\n

Tvrd\u00edm a budu odkazovat na Tyrola, \u017ee jsme se vydali rozumn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestou.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1m v\u00e1m t\u0159i modely reputace. Dva byly zn\u00e1m\u00e9 p\u0159ed Tyrolem, t\u0159et\u00ed vytvo\u0159il on.<\/p>\n

Co je to reputace? Existuje n\u011bjak\u00fd zuba\u0159, ke kter\u00e9mu chod\u00edte a doporu\u010dujete ho ostatn\u00edm lidem. To je jeho osobn\u00ed reputace, on si ji vytvo\u0159il s\u00e1m. My budeme \u0159e\u0161it kolektivn\u00ed reputaci.<\/p>\n

Existuje komunita \u2013 policist\u00e9, podnikatel\u00e9, n\u00e1rodnost, rasa (n\u011bkter\u00e9 term\u00edny z\u00e1pad nerad prob\u00edr\u00e1).<\/p>\n

Model 1<\/h3>\n

\nExistuje kolektiv. Uvnit\u0159 n\u011bj m\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk na \u010dele naps\u00e1no. Kdy\u017e odtud odch\u00e1z\u00ed, u\u017e m\u00e1 n\u011bjakou zn\u00e1mku. Ale nem\u016f\u017eete ur\u010dit, zda ten \u010dlov\u011bk pat\u0159\u00ed do t\u00e9to skupiny, nebo ne. Nap\u0159\u00edklad kdy\u017e v USA p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed na PhD programy studenty z RANEPA.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nAmerika v podstat\u011b opovrhuje cel\u00fdm zbytkem sv\u011bta. Pokud nem\u00e1te rakety \u2013 tak opovrhuje, pokud m\u00e1te rakety \u2013 opovrhuje a boj\u00ed se. Takto se d\u00edv\u00e1 na sv\u011bt a z\u00e1rove\u0148 jako ryb\u00e1\u0159 h\u00e1z\u00ed udici\u2026 O, dobr\u00e1 ryba! Stane\u0161 se americkou rybou. Tato zem\u011b nen\u00ed postavena na p\u016fvodn\u00edch fa\u0161istick\u00fdch principech, ale na vytvo\u0159en\u00fdch. Shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u00edme v\u0161echny nejlep\u0161\u00ed a proto jsme nejlep\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ij\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed do Ameriky n\u011bkdo z \"t\u0159et\u00edho sv\u011bta\" a uk\u00e1\u017ee se, \u017ee absolvoval RANEPA. A n\u00e1hle se v o\u010d\u00edch zam\u011bstnavatel\u016f n\u011bco rozho\u0159\u00ed. Hodnocen\u00ed z zkou\u0161ky je m\u00e9n\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ne\u017e to, \u017ee p\u0159i\u0161el z RANEPA.<\/p>\n

To je velmi povrchn\u00ed model.<\/p>\n

Model 2<\/h3>\n

\nNaprost\u011b politicky nekorektn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Reputace jako institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed past.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee k v\u00e1m do pr\u00e1ce p\u0159ijde \u010dernoch. (V Americe) Jste zam\u011bstnavatel, d\u00edv\u00e1te se na n\u011bj: \"Aha, je \u010dernoch, v z\u00e1sad\u011b proti \u010dernoch\u016fm nic nem\u00e1m, nejsem rasista. Ale v\u011bt\u0161inou jsou prost\u011b hloup\u00ed. Tak\u017ee ho nevezmu.\" A st\u00e1v\u00e1te se rasistou \"skutky\", a ne n\u00e1zory.<\/p>\n

\"Nev\u00edm, chlape, jestli jsi schopn\u00fd, ale pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b jsou takov\u00ed jako ty - hloup\u00ed. Tak\u017ee pro jistotu ti \u0159eknu ne.\" <\/p>\n

V \u010dem spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed past. P\u0159ed 10 lety \u0161el tenhle kluk do \u0161koly. A p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed: \"Budu se u\u010dit stejn\u011b dob\u0159e jako m\u016fj b\u00edl\u00fd soused v lavici? A pro\u010d? Stejn\u011b vezmou pouze na nekvalifikovanou pr\u00e1ci. I kdy\u017e se budu sna\u017eit a dostanu diplom, nikomu nic nedok\u00e1\u017eu. V\u00edm, jak to funguje \u2013 uvid\u00ed m\u00e9 \u010dern\u00e9 fyziognomick\u00e9 rysy a pomysl\u00ed si, \u017ee jsem stejn\u00fd jako v\u0161ichni v moj\u00ed skupin\u011b.\" Vznik\u00e1 tak \u0161patn\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha. \u010cernochov\u00e9 se neu\u010d\u00ed, proto\u017ee je pak nikdo nenajme, a nikdo je nenajme, proto\u017ee se neu\u010d\u00ed. Stabiln\u00ed kombinace strategi\u00ed v\u0161ech hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n

Model 3<\/h3>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nExistuje ur\u010dit\u00e9 spojen\u00ed. Kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 mezi n\u00e1hodn\u011b vybranou osobou z t\u00e9to populace (lidu) a (polici\u00ed). Nebo podnikateli a celn\u00edmi org\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nM\u00e1m zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho podnikatele, kter\u00fd \u010dasto komunikuje s celn\u00edmi org\u00e1ny, ten tuto model potvrzuje.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1te pot\u0159ebu\/p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed osoby (z lidu\/podnikatele) obr\u00e1tit se na (policii\/celn\u00edky) a sv\u011b\u0159it mu ur\u010ditou \"\u00falohu\". Zjistit situaci, p\u0159epravit zbo\u017e\u00ed. A t\u00edmto projevuje akt d\u016fv\u011bry. Osoba na m\u00edst\u011b se rozhoduje. Nem\u00e1 raz\u00edtko na \u010dele (model 1), ani d\u0159\u00edve u\u010din\u011bn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed investovat do sebe (model 2), nem\u00e1 nic, co by p\u0159edem ur\u010dovalo, jak dnes bude pracovat. M\u00e1 pouze dobrou v\u016fli pro dne\u0161ek. <\/p>\n

Poj\u010fme analyzovat, od \u010deho tento v\u00fdb\u011br z\u00e1vis\u00ed a kde vznik\u00e1 past?<\/p>\n

\u010clov\u011bk se d\u00edv\u00e1 na \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edka. Tyrol navrhl pouze jednu v\u011bc, v\u011bc pochybnou na sv\u00e9m smyslu. Ale ta v\u0161e vysv\u011btluje. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee o tomto \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edkovi se nepr\u00e1vem v\u00ed, co d\u0159\u00edve d\u011blal. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, o ka\u017ed\u00e9m existuje n\u011bjak\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh. O tomto policistovi se m\u016f\u017ee vej\u00edt do pov\u011bdom\u00ed, \u017ee d\u0159\u00edve vyd\u00edral pen\u00edze za vykon\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce. O tomto celn\u00edkovi jsme sly\u0161eli p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy, jak zadr\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1klady. Ale mo\u017en\u00e1 o n\u011bm nikdo nesly\u0161el.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\nExistuje parametr teta od 0 do 1, kter\u00fd pokud se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed nule, tak v\u0161e projdeme bez n\u00e1sledk\u016f. Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, pokud policista nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 registra\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo, m\u016f\u017ee zml\u00e1tit kohokoliv, o tom nikdo nebude v\u011bd\u011bt a nic se mu nestane. A pokud m\u00e1 registra\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo, teta se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed jedni\u010dce. Ponese velk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n

V Gruzii se rozhodli razantn\u011b potla\u010dit \u00fapln\u00fd nedostatek v\u00edry. Najali nov\u00e9 policisty a mysl\u00ed si, \u017ee star\u00e1 pov\u011bst zem\u0159e. Tyrol tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee to, jak\u00e1 tady existuj\u00ed dynamick\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha...<\/p>\n

Jak jsou nastaveny rovnov\u00e1hy. Pokud se na \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edka obr\u00e1t\u00ed, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee ho pova\u017euj\u00ed za \u010destn\u00e9ho. Osoba se m\u016f\u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b zachovat \u010destn\u011b, nebo se zachovat \u0161patn\u011b. To \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b ur\u010d\u00ed moji '\u00fav\u011brovou historii'. Z\u00edtra se na m\u011b nikdo neobr\u00e1t\u00ed, pokud zjist\u00ed, \u017ee jsem se choval ne\u010destn\u011b. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 v\u00edra v anonymn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky je velmi n\u00edzk\u00e1. O den pozd\u011bji je mal\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se k v\u00e1m n\u011bkdo obr\u00e1t\u00ed. Pokud u\u017e se n\u011bkdo obr\u00e1t\u00ed, je to vz\u00e1cnost a mus\u00edte \u201evyt\u011b\u017eit maximum\u201c a oloupit. Jsme tu v\u0161ichni zlod\u011bji a podvodn\u00edci a nikdo se na n\u00e1s stejn\u011b neobr\u00e1t\u00ed. Budeme d\u00e1l zlod\u011bji a podvodn\u00edky.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed druh dynamick\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee lid\u00e9 v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci se chovaj\u00ed dob\u0159e a hodn\u011b se k nim obracej\u00ed. Tak\u017ee z\u00edtra, pokud m\u00e1te \u010distou pov\u011bst, obdr\u017e\u00edte spoustu nab\u00eddek. A pokud si zkaz\u00edte jm\u00e9no, po\u010det \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo k v\u00e1m kles\u00e1. A to je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd aspekt. Pokud existuje takov\u00e1 v\u00edra, hodn\u011b ztr\u00e1c\u00edte \u0161patn\u00fdm chov\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Tyrol ukazuje, \u017ee v dynamice, jak\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha se vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, kriticky z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tet\u011b, a nikoli na po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Zad\u00e1n\u00edm t\u00e9tu zvy\u0161ujete osobn\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost jednotlivce. Pokud se mu da\u0159\u00ed, bude to zaznamen\u00e1no, a na n\u011bj se bude obracet, i kdy\u017e se na ostatn\u00ed neobracej\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"Alexej
\n
\n

\r\n \"P\u0159ehr\u00e1t\r\n
<\/div>\r\n <\/div><\/center>
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