{"id":37209,"date":"2019-10-31T22:16:21","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T19:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/zolotoe-sechenie-v-ekonomike-chto-eto\/"},"modified":"2019-10-31T22:16:21","modified_gmt":"2019-10-31T19:16:21","slug":"zolotoe-sechenie-v-ekonomike-chto-eto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/cs\/blog\/news\/zolotoe-sechenie-v-ekonomike-chto-eto","title":{"rendered":"Co je to \"Zlat\u00fd \u0159ez\" v ekonomice?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u011bkolik slov o \u201ezlat\u00e9m \u0159ezu\u201c v tradi\u010dn\u00edm smyslu<\/h4>\n

\nP\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee pokud je \u00fasek rozd\u011blen na \u010d\u00e1sti tak, \u017ee men\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st se vztahuje k v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, jako v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st k cel\u00e9mu \u00faseku, pak takov\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed d\u00e1v\u00e1 pom\u011br 1\/1,618, kter\u00fd starov\u011bc\u00ed \u0158ekov\u00e9, inspirov\u00e1ni je\u0161t\u011b star\u0161\u00edmi Egyp\u0165any, nazvali \u201ezlat\u00fdm \u0159ezem\u201c. A mnoh\u00e9 architektonick\u00e9 stavby \u2014 vztahy kontur budov, pom\u011br mezi jejich kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi prvky \u2014 po\u010d\u00ednaje egyptsk\u00fdmi pyramidami a kon\u010de teoretick\u00fdmi konstrukcemi Le Corbusiera \u2014 byly zalo\u017eeny na tomto pom\u011bru.
\nOdpov\u00eddaj\u00ed mu Fibonacciho \u010d\u00edsla, jejich\u017e spir\u00e1la poskytuje rozvinutou geometrickou ilustraci tohoto pom\u011bru. <\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc rozm\u011bry lidsk\u00e9ho t\u011bla (od chodidel k pupku, od pupku k hlav\u011b, od hlavy k prst\u016fm vzty\u010den\u00e9 ruky), po\u010d\u00ednaje ide\u00e1ln\u00edmi proporcemi vid\u011bn\u00fdmi ve st\u0159edov\u011bku (vitruvi\u00e1nsk\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk a podobn\u011b) a kon\u010de antropometrick\u00fdmi m\u011b\u0159en\u00edmi populace SSSR, jsou celkem bl\u00edzk\u00e9 tomuto pom\u011bru.
\n<\/a><\/noindex>
\nA pokud p\u0159id\u00e1me, \u017ee podobn\u00e9 tvary byly nalezeny v zcela r\u016fznorod\u00fdch biologick\u00fdch objektech: ve sko\u0159\u00e1pk\u00e1ch m\u011bkk\u00fd\u0161\u016f, uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed semen v slune\u010dnici a v \u0161i\u0161k\u00e1ch borovice, je jasn\u00e9, pro\u010d bylo iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed na 1,618 prohl\u00e1\u0161eno za \u201ebo\u017esk\u00e9\u201c \u2014 jeho stopy lze sledovat i ve form\u011b galaxi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se tenduj\u00ed k Fibonacciho spir\u00e1le!<\/p>\n

S ohledem na v\u0161echny tyto p\u0159\u00edklady lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat: <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. d\u011bjiny se jedn\u00e1 o skute\u010dn\u011b \u201evelk\u00e1 data\u201c. <\/li>\n
  2. I v prvn\u00edm p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed n\u011bjakou, pokud ne v\u0161eobecnost, pak neoby\u010dejn\u011b \u0161irok\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u201ezlat\u00e9ho \u0159ezu\u201c a podobn\u00fdch hodnot.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    <\/p>\n

    V ekonomice<\/h4>\n

    \nJsou \u0161iroce zn\u00e1my a intenzivn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 Lorenzovy diagramy pro vizualizaci p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f obyvatelstva. Tento mocn\u00fd makroekonomick\u00fd n\u00e1stroj s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi variacemi a up\u0159esn\u011bn\u00edmi (decilov\u00fd koeficient, Giniho index) se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 ve statistice pro socioekonomick\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1t\u016f a jejich zvl\u00e1\u0161tnost\u00ed a m\u016f\u017ee slou\u017eit jako opora pro p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch politick\u00fdch a rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed v oblasti zdan\u011bn\u00ed, zdravotnictv\u00ed, tvorby rozvojov\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f st\u00e1t\u016f a region\u016f.<\/p>\n

    A\u010dkoli jsou p\u0159\u00edjmy a v\u00fddaje v b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m \u017eivot\u011b \u00fazce propojeny, v Googlu to tak nen\u00ed... Je p\u0159ekvapuj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee jsem na\u0161el spojen\u00ed mezi Lorenzov\u00fdmi k\u0159ivkami a rozd\u011blen\u00edm v\u00fddaj\u016f pouze u dvou rusk\u00fdch autor\u016f (budu vd\u011b\u010dn\u00fd, pokud n\u011bkdo zn\u00e1 podobn\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce v rusk\u00e9m i anglicky mluv\u00edc\u00edm sektoru internetu). <\/p>\n

    Prvn\u00ed autor \u2014 disertace T. M. Bujevy. Tato disertace se v\u011bnovala mimo jin\u00e9 optimalizaci v\u00fddaj\u016f v marijsk\u00fdch dr\u016fbe\u017e\u00e1rn\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

    Druh\u00fd autor, V.V. Matohin (existuj\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 odkazy autor\u016f), p\u0159istupuje k v\u011bci v\u00edce komplexn\u011b. Matohin, p\u016fvodn\u011b fyzik, se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 statistickou anal\u00fdzou dat pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch p\u0159i p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159\u00eddic\u00edch rozhodnut\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako hodnocen\u00edm adaptability a \u0159\u00edditelnosti spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

    Koncept a p\u0159\u00edklady, kter\u00e9 jsou uvedeny n\u00ed\u017ee, jsou \u010derp\u00e1ny z prac\u00ed V. Matohina a jeho koleg\u016f (Matohin, 1995), (Antoniou a kol., 2002), (Kryanov a kol., 1998), (Matohin a kol. 2018). V t\u00e9to souvislosti je t\u0159eba dodat, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 chyby v interpretaci jejich prac\u00ed jsou v\u00fdhradn\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost\u00ed autora t\u011bchto \u0159\u00e1dk\u016f a nemohou b\u00fdt p\u0159i\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny p\u016fvodn\u00edm akademick\u00fdm text\u016fm. <\/p>\n

    Ne\u010dekan\u00e1 st\u00e1lost<\/h4>\n

    \nZobrazeno na n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00fdch grafech.<\/p>\n

    1. Rozd\u011blen\u00ed grant\u016f v sout\u011b\u017ei v\u011bdecko-technick\u00fdch prac\u00ed dle St\u00e1tn\u00edho programu \"Vysokoteplotn\u00ed supravodivost\". (Matohin, 1995)
    \n\"Co
    \nObr. 1. Proporce v ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00edm rozd\u011blen\u00ed prost\u0159edk\u016f dle projekt\u016f v letech 1988-1994.<\/i>
    \nHlavn\u00ed charakteristiky ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00edch rozd\u011blen\u00ed jsou uvedeny v Tab. 3, kde SN \u2014 ro\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stka rozd\u011blovan\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f (v mil. rublech), a N \u2014 po\u010det financovan\u00fdch projekt\u016f. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v pr\u016fb\u011bhu t\u011bchto let doch\u00e1zelo ke zm\u011bn\u00e1m v osobn\u00edm slo\u017een\u00ed poroty sout\u011b\u017ee, rozpo\u010dtu sout\u011b\u017ee a dokonce i m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se hodnot\u011b pen\u011bz (p\u0159ed a po reform\u011b v roce 1991), stabilita skute\u010dn\u00fdch k\u0159ivek v \u010dase je p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e1. \u010cern\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra na grafu je tvo\u0159ena experiment\u00e1ln\u00edmi body.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\n1988<\/td>\n1989<\/td>\n1990<\/td>\n1991<\/td>\n1992<\/td>\n1993<\/td>\n1994<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    S<\/td>\n273<\/td>\n362<\/td>\n432<\/td>\n553<\/td>\n345<\/td>\n353<\/td>\n253<\/td>\nX<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Sn<\/td>\n143.1<\/td>\n137.6<\/td>\n136.9<\/td>\n411.2<\/td>\n109.4<\/td>\n920<\/td>\n977<\/td>\nY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    \nTab. 3<\/i><\/p>\n

    2. K\u0159ivka v\u00fddaj\u016f spojen\u00fdch se prodejem z\u00e1sob (Kotljar, 1989)
    \n\"Co
    \nObr. 2<\/i> <\/p>\n

    3. Tarifa mzdy pro \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky<\/p>\n

    Jako p\u0159\u00edklad pro vytvo\u0159en\u00ed diagramu byly pou\u017eity \u00fadaje z dokumentu \"P\u0159ehled: kolik jak\u00fdm \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016fm podle platov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu n\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00ed mzdy\" (Suvorov, 2014) (\"V\u011bda v\u00edt\u011bzit\"). <\/p>\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \u00da\u0159edn\u00edk<\/td>\nMzda (rub.)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Plukovn\u00edk<\/td>\n585<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Podplukovn\u00edk<\/td>\n351<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Major P\u0159\u00edklad<\/td>\n292<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Maj\u00f3r Sekund<\/td>\n243<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \u010ctvrtmist<\/td>\n117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Adjutant<\/td>\n117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Komisa\u0159<\/td>\n98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    …<\/td>\n…<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    \n<\/td>\n

    		\"Co
    \nObr. 3. Diagram proporcionality ro\u010dn\u00edch plat\u016f podle hodnost\u00ed\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    4. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd pracovn\u00ed rozvrh americk\u00e9ho mana\u017eera st\u0159edn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b (Mintzberg, 1973)
    \n \"Co
    \nObr.4 <\/i> <\/p>\n

    P\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e9 normalizovan\u00e9 grafy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee v ilustrovan\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch aktivit\u00e1ch existuje spole\u010dn\u00fd vzor. P\u0159esto\u017ee se konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed aspekty hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 \u010dinnosti li\u0161\u00ed, je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee podobnost graf\u016f je zp\u016fsobena n\u011bjakou fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed podm\u00ednkou fungov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f. Jen v pr\u016fb\u011bhu tis\u00edcilet\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 \u010dinnosti, na z\u00e1klad\u011b obrovsk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed pokus\u016f a omyl\u016f, akt\u00e9\u0159i t\u00e9to \u010dinnosti objevili ur\u010ditou optim\u00e1ln\u00ed strategii rozd\u011blen\u00ed zdroj\u016f a intuitivn\u011b ji vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 aktivit\u011b. Tento p\u0159edpoklad dob\u0159e souhlas\u00ed s zn\u00e1m\u00fdm Pareto principem: 20 % na\u0161ich \u00fasil\u00ed p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed 80 % v\u00fdsledk\u016f. Tady je zjevn\u011b pozorovateln\u00e9 n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho. P\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e9 grafy vyjad\u0159uj\u00ed empirickou z\u00e1konitost, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159i transformaci do Lorenzovy k\u0159ivky s dostate\u010dnou p\u0159esnost\u00ed pops\u00e1na p\u0159i exponentu \u201ealpha\u201c rovn\u00e9m 2. P\u0159i t\u00e9to hodnot\u011b se Lorenzova k\u0159ivka st\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed obvodu.<\/p>\n

    Lze tuto dosud neust\u00e1lenou charakteristiku nazvat survivabilitou. Podobn\u011b jako p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed v divok\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b, p\u0159e\u017eitelnost hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu je ur\u010dov\u00e1na jeho adaptac\u00ed na podm\u00ednky socioekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed a schopnost\u00ed p\u0159izp\u016fsobit se zm\u011bn\u00e1m tr\u017en\u00edch podm\u00ednek.<\/p>\n

    To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee syst\u00e9m, ve kter\u00e9m je rozd\u011blen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f bl\u00edzk\u00e9 ide\u00e1ln\u00edmu (p\u0159i exponentu \u201ealpha\u201c rovn\u00e9m 2, nebo rozd\u011blen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f \u201epodle obvodu\u201c), m\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt v existuj\u00edc\u00ed podob\u011b. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech toto rozd\u011blen\u00ed ur\u010duje tak\u00e9 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rentabilitu podniku. Nap\u0159\u00edklad zde. \u010c\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed je koeficient odchylky od ide\u00e1lu, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed je rentabilita podniku (Bueva, 2002).<\/p>\n

    Tabulka (fragment)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\nN\u00e1zev hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, okresu<\/td>\nRentabilita (%)<\/td>\nKoeficient odchylky<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    1<\/td>\nGUP p\/f \u201eVol\u017esk\u00e1\u201c Vol\u017esk\u00e9ho okresu<\/td>\n13,0<\/td>\n0,336<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2<\/td>\nSPK p\/f \u201eGornomarisk\u00e1\u201c<\/td>\n11,1<\/td>\n0,18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    3<\/td>\nUMSP s-z \u201eZvenigovsk\u00fd\u201c<\/td>\n33,7<\/td>\n0,068<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    4<\/td>\nZAO \u201eMariyskoye\u201c okresu Medvedevsk\u00fd<\/td>\n7,5<\/td>\n0,195<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    5<\/td>\nOAO \u201eTepli\u010dnoye\u201c okresu Medvedevsk\u00fd<\/td>\n16,3<\/td>\n0,107<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    …<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    47<\/td>\nSPK (k-z) \u201eRassvet\u201c okresu Sovetsk\u00fd<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n0,303<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    48<\/td>\nS-z \u201eBron\u011bvik\u201c okresu Kilemarsk\u00fd<\/td>\n14,2<\/td>\n0,117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    49<\/td>\nSPK SHA \u201eAvanguard\u201c okresu Morkinsk\u00fd<\/td>\n6,5<\/td>\n0,261<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    50<\/td>\nSHA k-z im. Petrova okresu Morkinsk\u00fd<\/td>\n22,5<\/td>\n0,135<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    Praktick\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry<\/h4>\n

    \nP\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f, jak pro firmy, tak pro dom\u00e1cnosti, je u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 sestavit Lorenzovu k\u0159ivku a porovnat ji s ide\u00e1ln\u00ed. \u010c\u00edm bl\u00ed\u017ee bude v\u00e1\u0161 diagram ide\u00e1ln\u00ed, t\u00edm pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee pl\u00e1nujete spr\u00e1vn\u011b a \u017ee va\u0161e \u010dinnost bude \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1. Tato bl\u00edzkost potvrzuje, \u017ee va\u0161e pl\u00e1ny jsou bl\u00edzk\u00e9 zku\u0161enostem hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 \u010dinnosti lidstva, kter\u00e9 se usadily v takov\u00fdch obecn\u011b uzn\u00e1van\u00fdch empirick\u00fdch z\u00e1konitostech, jako je Pareto princip.<\/p>\n

    M\u016f\u017eeme ale p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee jde o fungov\u00e1n\u00ed zral\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu orientovan\u00e9ho na ziskovost. Pokud jde v\u0161ak o maximalizaci zisku, tedy nap\u0159\u00edklad o \u00fakol modernizace firmy nebo o z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed jej\u00edho pod\u00edlu na trhu, va\u0161e k\u0159ivka rozd\u011blen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f se odch\u00fdl\u00ed od kru\u017enice. <\/p>\n

    Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b startupu s jeho specifickou ekonomikou bude Lorenzova k\u0159ivka odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti \u00fasp\u011bchu tak\u00e9 odchylovat od kru\u017enice. M\u016f\u017eeme formulovat hypot\u00e9zu, \u017ee odchylky k\u0159ivky rozd\u011blen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f dovnit\u0159 kru\u017enice odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed jak zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm rizik\u016fm, tak sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 adaptabilit\u011b firmy. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b bez opory na velk\u00e9 statistick\u00e9 soubory pro startupy (jak \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9, tak ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9) jsou kvalifikovan\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy m\u00e1lo pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. <\/p>\n

    Podle jin\u00e9 hypot\u00e9zy m\u016f\u017ee odchylka k\u0159ivky rozd\u011blen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f ven z kru\u017enice signalizovat jak nadm\u011brnou regulaci \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, tak sign\u00e1l bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edho se bankrotu. Pro ov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed t\u00e9to hypot\u00e9zy je tak\u00e9 nezbytn\u00e1 ur\u010dit\u00e1 referen\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1kladna, kter\u00e1, jak je tomu i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b startup\u016f, v otev\u0159en\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstupu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b neexistuje.<\/p>\n

    Na z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h4>\n

    \nPrvn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 publikace k t\u00e9to tematice poch\u00e1z\u00ed z roku 1995 (Matohin, 1995). A m\u00e1lo zn\u00e1most t\u011bchto prac\u00ed p\u0159i jejich univerz\u00e1lnosti a radik\u00e1ln\u011b nov\u00e9m pou\u017eit\u00ed \u0161iroce pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch model\u016f a n\u00e1stroj\u016f ekonomisty z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v ur\u010dit\u00e9m smyslu z\u00e1hadou\u2026
    \n
    Zdroj: habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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