{"id":52568,"date":"2019-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:00:20","slug":"gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/cs\/blog\/news\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","title":{"rendered":"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza situace","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rozlo\u017eili jsme AI technologie z roku 2019 a neomalen\u011b je porovnali s p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed z roku 2017.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza situace\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/9e39aceb55783b5f072efe5b0a94672c.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n<p>Za prv\u00e9, co je Gartner Hype Cycle? To je jak\u00fdsi cyklus zralosti technologie, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b p\u0159echod od f\u00e1ze hype k jej\u00ed produktivn\u00edmu vyu\u017eit\u00ed. Te\u010f uvid\u00edte graf s p\u0159ekladem, abyste to m\u011bli n\u00e1zorn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/en\/research\/methodologies\/gartner-hype-cycle\">v\u0161echno<\/a><\/noindex>. A dole jsou vysv\u011btlen\u00ed.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza situace\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/18e511b34c2a7c007f1b4e01acfb0ef4.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Prvn\u00ed f\u00e1ze. \u0336H\u0336n\u0336\u011b\u0336v\u0336. <strong>Za\u010d\u00e1tek.<\/strong> Technologie se objevuje, nejprve ji diskutuj\u00ed osv\u00edcen\u00ed nad\u0161enci, a pot\u00e9 i fanatick\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost; postupn\u011b nar\u016fst\u00e1 rozruch.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Druh\u00e1 f\u00e1ze. \u0336T\u0336o\u0336r\u0336g\u0336. <strong>Vrchol nadhodnocen\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/strong> V ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku o technologii mluv\u00ed ji\u017e v\u0161ichni, sna\u017e\u00ed se ji implementovat a ti nejvynal\u00e9zav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ji prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed za p\u0159emr\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 ceny.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>T\u0159et\u00ed f\u00e1ze. \u0336D\u0336e\u0336p\u0336r\u0336e\u0336s\u0336i\u0336e\u0336.\u0336 <strong>Pokles z\u00e1jmu.<\/strong> Technologie se aktivn\u011b implementuje a \u010dasto selh\u00e1v\u00e1 kv\u016fli nedostatk\u016fm a omezen\u00edm. \"To je v\u0161echno blbost!\" \u2013 sly\u0161\u00edme tady i tam. Rozruch n\u00e1hle kles\u00e1 (cena, \u010dasto, tak\u00e9).<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>\u010ctvrt\u00e1 f\u00e1ze. \u0336O\u0336t\u0336r\u0336i\u0336c\u0336a\u0336n\u0336\u00ed\u0336.\u0336 <strong>Pr\u00e1ce na chyb\u00e1ch.<\/strong> Technologie se upravuje, probl\u00e9my se \u0159e\u0161\u00ed. Postupn\u011b spole\u010dnosti opatrn\u011b zkou\u0161ej\u00ed technologii implementovat a, hur\u00e1, v\u0161echno funguje skv\u011ble.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>P\u00e1t\u00e1 f\u00e1ze. \u0336P\u0336r\u0336i\u0336n\u0336\u00e1\u0336t\u0336i\u0336v\u0336a\u0336.\u0336 <strong>Produktivn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce.<\/strong> Technologie si z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00e9 zaslou\u017een\u00e9 m\u00edsto na trhu a funguje, vyv\u00edj\u00ed se, l\u00edb\u00ed se.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"chto-v-trende\">Co je v trendu?<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Vrac\u00edme se k hype cyklu 2019. Spole\u010dnost Gartner <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2019\">vyu\u017eila<\/a><\/noindex> v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vydala zpr\u00e1vu o tom, ve kter\u00e9 f\u00e1zi se nach\u00e1z\u00ed jak\u00e9 technologie um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a kdy za\u010dnou pracovat produktivn\u011b. Graf je n\u00ed\u017ee, koment\u00e1\u0159e pod grafem.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza situace\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/e97ad21859354ea40467c07c99537f65.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>S velk\u00fdm odstupem a ji\u017e ve f\u00e1zi \u201eProduktivn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce\u201c jsou technologie \u201eRozpozn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159e\u010di\u201c a \u201eZrychlen\u00ed proces\u016f s vyu\u017eit\u00edm GPU\u201c. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee je t\u0159eba je okam\u017eit\u011b aplikovat, nebo\u0165 ji\u017e poskytuj\u00ed konkurenceschopnou v\u00fdhodu sv\u00fdm majitel\u016fm.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Automatick\u00e9 u\u010den\u00ed stroj\u016f (AutoML) a chatboti jsou nyn\u00ed na vrcholu hype. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee o nich v\u0161ichni mluv\u00ed, mnoz\u00ed je implementuj\u00ed, ale k dolad\u011bn\u00ed technologi\u00ed do po\u017eadovan\u00e9ho stavu bude pot\u0159eba od 2 do 5 let.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>N\u00e1m obvykl\u00e9 stroje jsou nyn\u00ed tak\u00e9 v\u00edce ne\u017e v trendu. Technologie \u201eautonomn\u00ed vozidla\u201c t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dosahuje dna. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je to dobr\u00e9, proto\u017ee p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi je produktivn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, podle odhad\u016f Gartu, na rozpracov\u00e1n\u00ed a adaptaci bude pot\u0159eba nejm\u00e9n\u011b 10 let.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Kde jsou dnes d\u0159\u00edve popul\u00e1rn\u00ed drony a virtu\u00e1ln\u00ed realita? V\u0161e je na m\u00edst\u011b \u2013 Gartner za\u0159adil drony do oblasti Edge AI (kategorie hrani\u010d\u00edc\u00ed s AI) a virtu\u00e1ln\u00ed realita se stala sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9ho inteligence. Ob\u011b t\u00e9mata, mimochodem, jsou nyn\u00ed ve f\u00e1zi spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a maj\u00ed pozitivn\u00ed progn\u00f3zu: 2-5 let do produktivn\u00ed funkcionality na trhu.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"perspektivy\">Vyhl\u00eddky<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Mezi perspektivn\u00edmi funkcemi: Robotizovan\u00fd software pro automatizaci proces\u016f (Robotic process automation software) \u2013 zn\u00ed to d\u011bsiv\u011b, ale v praxi to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee robot nahrazuje rutinn\u00ed \u010dinnosti. No\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra pro nekvalifikovan\u00fd person\u00e1l; nicm\u00e9n\u011b <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oracle.com\/a\/ocom\/docs\/artificial-intelligence\/hbr-pulse-survey.pdf\">studie<\/a><\/noindex> Harvard Business Review tvrd\u00ed: k propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nedojde, ale produktivita pr\u00e1ce vzroste. Je tu <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iZJ6W803zaU\">d\u016fvod<\/a><\/noindex> v\u011b\u0159it. Technologie za 2 roky p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed vrchol nepopularity a obecn\u00e9ho opovr\u017een\u00ed, a pot\u00e9 se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed v\u0161ude.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Mezi technologiemi, o kter\u00fdch budou masov\u011b mluvit evangelist\u00e9 a infoce\u010f\u00e1ci v\u0161ech druh\u016f pouze v perspektiv\u011b, m\u011b zaujalo \u201eneuromorfn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed\u201c. Jsou to elektrick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed (\u010dipy), kter\u00e1 <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/neuromorphic-hardware-trying-to-put-brain-into-chips-222132f7e4de\">napodobuj\u00ed<\/a><\/noindex> p\u0159irozen\u00e9 biologick\u00e9 struktury na\u0161eho nervov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu z hlediska energetick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinnosti. Pokud to zjednodu\u0161\u00edme, jde o superv\u00fdkon d\u00edky rozd\u011blen\u00ed pr\u00e1ce (asynchronn\u00edmu obnovov\u00e1n\u00ed neuron\u016f). Takov\u00ed giganti jako IBM a Intel u\u017e aktivn\u011b pracuj\u00ed na vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed neuromorfn\u00edch \u010dip\u016f. Ale arm\u00e1da Johna Connora m\u00e1 \u010das se p\u0159ipravit na den pohled\u00e1vky \u2013 Gartner p\u0159id\u011blil zralosti technologie cel\u00fdch 10 let. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>O digit\u00e1ln\u00ed etice (Digital Ethics), co je charakteristick\u00e9, se mluv\u00ed hodn\u011b, ale implementovat se nesp\u011bch\u00e1. Tento sm\u011br byl vy\u010dlen\u011bn do samostatn\u00e9 kategorie oblast\u00ed AI: jde o to, \u017ee by se m\u011bly upevnit n\u011bjak\u00e9 etick\u00e9 principy, normy a standardy sb\u011bru dat, implementace AI do \u017eivota, zkr\u00e1tka, aby to bylo jako u <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk\/ai-and-digital-ethics\">lid\u00ed<\/a><\/noindex>. Nakonec se pod\u00edvat k Asimovovi. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"2017-vs-2019\">2017 vs 2019<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1bavn\u00e9 je, \u017ee v roce 2017 bylo v\u0161echno <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017\/\">jin\u00e9<\/a><\/noindex>, dokonce nebyl vyhrazen\u00fd \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd hype cyklus pro AI: technologie AI se pohybovaly v \u010dele rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se technologi\u00ed (Emerging Technologies) spolu s blockchainem a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159enou realitou. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Strojov\u00e9 u\u010den\u00ed a hlubok\u00e9 u\u010den\u00ed m\u011bly v roce 2017 hype olympi\u00e1dy, a v roce 2019 pokra\u010dovaly svou cestu sm\u011brem k poklesu, tedy <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/vc.ru\/tribuna\/81813-zhivoy-primer-kompyuternogo-zreniya-v-promyshlennosti\">produktivn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Mimochodem, drony p\u0159e\u0161ly z vrcholu na pokles a v roce 2019 se vr\u00e1tily zp\u011bt k vrcholu. A to se ob\u010das st\u00e1v\u00e1. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>V roce 2019 vstoupilo do cyklu 8 nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Mezi nimi cloudov\u00e9 slu\u017eby AI, tr\u017ei\u0161t\u011b AI a kvantov\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty s AI. Celkov\u011b dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00e9 (v \u00fazk\u00fdch kruz\u00edch) n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed vkl\u00e1dat na AI koleje.<\/p>\n<p>Zdroj: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/post\/475032\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0441 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u043c 2017 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0412\u043e-\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 Gartner Hype Cycle? \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b \u0437\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0445\u0430\u0439\u043f\u0430 \u043a \u0435\u0451 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044e. \u0421\u0435\u0439\u0447\u0430\u0441 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a \u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0441\u0451. \u0410 \u0432\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u044f. \u0336\u0413\u0336\u043d\u0336\u0435\u0336\u0432\u0336. \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a. \u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f, \u0435\u0451 \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[702],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e 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