{"id":56281,"date":"2020-02-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-08T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:04:32","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:04:32","slug":"analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/cs\/blog\/news\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","title":{"rendered":"Anal\u00fdza trhu nemovitost\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat z msgr.ru","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

Ned\u00e1vno jsem se potkal s probl\u00e9mem v\u00fdb\u011bru bytu a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b prvn\u00ed, co m\u011b zaj\u00edmalo, bylo, co se d\u011bje na trhu s nemovitostmi, a jak u\u017e to b\u00fdv\u00e1, polovina expert\u016f \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee youtube.com<\/a><\/noindex> nemovitosti budou r\u016fst, zat\u00edmco druh\u00e1 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee naopak cena bude klesat. Nakonec jsem se rozhodl pochopit to s\u00e1m, a tak to dopadlo.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\n© Navrhl upklyak \/ Freepik<\/a><\/noindex><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Abych pochopil, jak se cena v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b m\u011bnila, musel jsem naj\u00edt skute\u010dn\u00e9 prodejn\u00ed ceny nemovitost\u00ed. Ceny z c\u00edlen\u00fdch web\u016f jako cian.ru<\/a><\/noindex> nebo avito.ru<\/a><\/noindex> nevyhovuj\u00ed, proto\u017ee tam obvykle byty odch\u00e1zej\u00ed se slevou a skute\u010dnou prodejn\u00ed cenu nelze zjistit, a zde jsem si v\u0161iml webu, na kter\u00e9m bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 vid\u011bt skute\u010dnou cenu, za kterou byl byt koupen. Hovo\u0159\u00edme samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o webu msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, o kter\u00e9m se m\u016f\u017eete podrobn\u011bji do\u010d\u00edst v tomto<\/a><\/noindex> p\u0159ehledu. Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, tato organizace se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 prodejem byt\u016f na z\u00e1klad\u011b smlouvy o vykonan\u00e9 renty na aukc\u00edch.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Abych zjistil, jak\u00e9 ceny jsou v r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech Moskvy, a tak\u00e9 bylo by zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 pod\u00edvat se, jak\u00e9 byty se prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edce, ve kter\u00fdch oblastech nakupuj\u00ed bl\u00ed\u017ee k startovn\u00ed cen\u011b a kde m\u016f\u017ee cena v\u00fdrazn\u011b zm\u011bnit. Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem jsem v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b sesb\u00edral data z webu msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, kter\u00e1 se d\u011bl\u00ed na dva typy: aukce, kter\u00e9 prob\u011bhly a kter\u00e9 neprob\u011bhly, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e byty, kter\u00e9 nebyly prod\u00e1ny, mohou b\u00fdt na dvou m\u00edstech najednou.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Sesb\u00edran\u00e1 data jsem sestavil do tabulky pro p\u0159ehlednost:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nV tabulce jsou uvedeny \u00fadaje za posledn\u00edch 10 aukc\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

V uveden\u00e9 tabulce ve sloupci ‘A’ jsou uvedeny informace o auk\u010dn\u00edch bytech (adresy bez mezer a velk\u00fdch p\u00edsmen kv\u016fli rozd\u00edl\u016fm v psan\u00ed v p\u016fvodn\u00edch datech), v prvn\u00edm \u0159\u00e1dku jsou uvedena data budouc\u00edch a prob\u011bhl\u00fdch aukc\u00ed. Prod\u00e1van\u00e9 byty jsou ozna\u010deny ‘xxx’ ve \u0159\u00e1dku (to bylo provedeno, aby se porozum\u011blo, kter\u00e9 byty mohou b\u00fdt k dispozici v je\u0161t\u011b neohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch aukc\u00edch), v horn\u00edm \u0159\u00e1dku bun\u011bk je uvedena startovn\u00ed cena a ve spodn\u00edm cena prodeje, v bu\u0148k\u00e1ch budouc\u00edch aukc\u00ed je odkaz s popisem bytu.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to tabulce lze tak\u00e9 vid\u011bt n\u011bkter\u00e9 zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 vzorce, nap\u0159\u00edklad to, \u017ee pokud se byt neprod\u00e1 b\u011bhem dvou aukc\u00ed, cena bude na t\u0159et\u00ed aukci sn\u00ed\u017eena a to takto ka\u017ed\u00e9 dv\u011b aukce, a\u010dkoli pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vzorek, existuj\u00ed v\u00fdjimky z tohoto pravidla a byt zlevn\u00ed ji\u017e na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed aukci, pokud nebyl prod\u00e1n na prvn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Abychom pochopili, ve kter\u00fdch oblastech a na kter\u00e9 skupiny byt\u016f se v\u00edce obchoduje, um\u00edstil jsem v\u0161echny adresy na mapu:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nOdkaz na kompletn\u00ed mapu<\/a><\/noindex>.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Na map\u011b jsou ozna\u010deny adresy byt\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly nebo budou prod\u00e1ny, v nadpisu zna\u010dky je uvedena prodejn\u00ed cena (ne cena z aukce), rok prodeje a \u010d\u00edslo, z kolik\u00e1t\u00e9 aukce byl byt prod\u00e1n. \u010c\u00edslo ve zna\u010dce ukazuje po\u010det pokoj\u016f v byt\u011b. V popisu zna\u010dky se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed informace o prob\u011bhl\u00fdch a budouc\u00edch aukc\u00edch, stejn\u011b jako adresa (adresy bez mezer a velk\u00fdch p\u00edsmen kv\u016fli rozd\u00edl\u016fm v z\u00e1pisech v p\u016fvodn\u00edch datech) a dal\u0161\u00ed informace o byt\u011b.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

D\u00edky map\u011b si m\u016f\u017eete prohl\u00e9dnout, jak se cena v oblasti m\u011bnila v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu, jak moc se obchoduje s podobn\u00fdmi variantami. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee nov\u00e9 fondy, tj. byty v nov\u00fdch domech, i v oblastech se \u0161patnou dopravn\u00ed dostupnost\u00ed, se obvykle prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed s vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, zat\u00edmco byty star\u00e9ho fondu lze celkem koupit za zahajovac\u00ed cenu nebo s mal\u00fdm vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm. Podle mapy lze ud\u011blat p\u0159ibli\u017enou progn\u00f3zu pro aukce t\u00edm, \u017ee se zohledn\u00ed p\u0159edt\u00edm prodan\u00e9 byty kolem bytu, kter\u00fd je vystaven na aukci.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e nen\u00ed zcela spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 srovn\u00e1vat byty star\u00e9ho a nov\u00e9ho fondu, a auk\u010dn\u00ed byty jsou v\u00fdrazn\u011b posunuty sm\u011brem ke star\u00e9mu fondu kv\u016fli specifik\u016fm, msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, p\u0159esto se pod\u00edvejme na n\u011bkter\u00e9 histogramy s t\u011bmito p\u0159edpoklady.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch cen byt\u016f podle let a po\u010dtu pokoj\u016f:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det byt\u016f: 397<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ceny nen\u00ed zcela korektn\u00ed posuzovat odd\u011blen\u011b od oblasti, proto se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na byty v ka\u017ed\u00e9 oblasti zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 (p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1ny pouze oblasti uvnit\u0159 MKAD).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch cen jednoizbov\u00fdch byt\u016f rozd\u011blen\u00fdch podle oblast\u00ed a roku:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det jednoizbov\u00fdch byt\u016f: 218<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch cen dvoupokojov\u00fdch byt\u016f rozd\u011blen\u00fdch podle oblast\u00ed a roku:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det dvoupokojov\u00fdch byt\u016f: 159<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Bohu\u017eel, t\u0159\u00edpokojov\u00fdch byt\u016f je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo, co\u017e znemo\u017e\u0148uje vytvo\u0159en\u00ed jak\u00e9koli rozumn\u00e9 histogramu.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det t\u0159\u00edpokojov\u00fdch byt\u016f: 20<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdm p\u0159edpoklad\u016fm (op\u011bt, k datu naps\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nku v roce 2020 prob\u011bhl pouze jeden aukce) lze p\u0159esto u\u010dinit ur\u010dit\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry; pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na rozlo\u017een\u00ed cen podle lokalit, lze si v\u0161imnout, \u017ee cena v celku roste, av\u0161ak u\u017e nyn\u00ed se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 projevovat obrat, proto\u017ee ceny v n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed klesat, zat\u00edmco v jin\u00fdch se zpomaluje r\u016fst (co\u017e v podstat\u011b sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o dosa\u017een\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch cen a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i jejich n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m poklesu).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Zdrojov\u00fd k\u00f3d na github.com<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Zdroj: habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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\u017ee","canonical_url":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/cs\/blog\/news\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"","webmasterTools":{"miscellaneous":""},"schema":null,"og:locale":"cs_CZ","og:site_name":"ProHoster | \u041a\u0443\u043f\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0435\u0436\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0445\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0433 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0441\u0430\u0439\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0441 \u0437\u0430\u0449\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0442 DDoS, VPS VDS \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0435\u0440\u044b","og:type":"article","og:title":"\ud83e\udd47\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0432\u0438\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0441 msgr.ru | ProHoster","og:description":"\u041d\u0435\u0434\u0430\u0432\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0442\u043e\u043b\u043a\u043d\u0443\u043b\u0441\u044f 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