{"id":52568,"date":"2019-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:00:20","slug":"gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/da\/blog\/news\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","title":{"rendered":"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vi har systematiseret AI-teknologierne fra 2019 og sammenlignet dem skaml\u00f8st med prognosen fra 2017.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/9e39aceb55783b5f072efe5b0a94672c.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n<p>For det f\u00f8rste, hvad er Gartner Hype Cycle? Det er en slags teknologimodenhedscyklus, n\u00e6rmere bestemt overgangen fra hype-fasen til produktiv anvendelse. Her vil v\u00e6re en graf med overs\u00e6ttelse, s\u00e5 det er let at forst\u00e5 <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/en\/research\/methodologies\/gartner-hype-cycle\">alt<\/a><\/noindex>. Og nederst forklaringer.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/18e511b34c2a7c007f1b4e01acfb0ef4.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>F\u00f8rste fase. \u0336V\u0336e\u0336n\u0336d\u0336t\u0336. <strong>Lancering.<\/strong> Teknologien dukker op, den diskuteres f\u00f8rst af oplyste n\u00f8rder, og derefter af den fanatiske offentlighed; interessen vokser gradvist.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Anden fase. \u0336H\u0336a\u0336n\u0336d\u0336l\u0336. <strong>Toppen af overdrevent forventninger.<\/strong> P\u00e5 et tidspunkt taler alle om teknologien, fors\u00f8ger at implementere den, og de mest opfindsomme \u2013 at s\u00e6lge den til overpris.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Tredje fase. \u0336D\u0336e\u0336p\u0336r\u0336e\u0336s\u0336s\u0336io\u0336n\u0336. <strong>Faldende interesse.<\/strong> Teknologien implementeres aktivt og fejler ofte p\u00e5 grund af fejl og begr\u00e6nsninger. \"Det her er skrammel!\" \u2013 h\u00f8res her og der. Interesse stiger hurtigt (priserne falder ofte ogs\u00e5).<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Fjerde fase. \u0336A\u0336v\u0336l\u0336e\u0336d\u0336i\u0336g\u0336g\u0336else. <strong>Fejlfindingsarbejde.<\/strong> Teknologien forbedres, problemerne l\u00f8ses. Gradvist fors\u00f8ger virksomheder omhyggeligt at implementere teknologien, og hurra, det g\u00e5r fantastisk.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Femte fase. \u0336B\u0336e\u0336t\u0336r\u0336i\u0336n\u0336g\u0336. <strong>Produktiv indsats.<\/strong> Teknologien vinder sin velfortjente plads p\u00e5 markedet og fungerer roligt, udvikler sig og v\u00e6rds\u00e6ttes.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"chto-v-trende\">Hvad er p\u00e5 trend?<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Tilbage til hypecyklussen fra 2019. Gartner Company <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2019\">udgivet<\/a><\/noindex> i september udgav en rapport om, p\u00e5 hvilken fase de forskellige AI-teknologier befinder sig, og hvorn\u00e5r de begynder at fungere produktivt. Grafen nedenfor, kommentarer under grafen.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/e97ad21859354ea40467c07c99537f65.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Med stor margin og allerede p\u00e5 fasen 'Produktiv indsats' findes teknologierne 'Talegenkendelse' og 'Accelerering af processer ved hj\u00e6lp af GPU'. Dette betyder, at de skal anvendes hurtigt, da de allerede giver konkurrencefordel for deres ejere.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Automatisk maskinl\u00e6ring (AutoML) og chatbots er nu p\u00e5 toppen af hypen. Det vil sige, at alle taler om dem, mange implementerer dem, men det vil tage mellem 2 og 5 \u00e5r at f\u00e5 teknologierne til det rette niveau.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>De velkendte maskiner er ogs\u00e5 mere end p\u00e5 trend nu. Teknologien 'autonome transportmidler' er n\u00e6sten ved at ramme bunden. I dette tilf\u00e6lde er det godt, for der venter produktiv indsats foran. Men if\u00f8lge Gartners vurdering vil det tage ikke mindre end 10 \u00e5r at udvikle og tilpasse sig.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Hvor er de engang s\u00e5 hypede droner og virtual reality i dag? Alt er p\u00e5 plads \u2013 Gartner har inkluderet droner i Edge AI (kategorier, der gr\u00e6nser op til AI), og virtual reality er blevet en del af Augmented Intelligence (forst\u00e6rket intelligens). Begge temaer er i \u00f8vrigt p\u00e5 opstartsstadiet og har en positiv prognose: 2-5 \u00e5r til produktiv drift p\u00e5 markedet.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"perspektivy\">Udsigter<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Blandt de lovende funktioner: Robotic Process Automation Software \u2013 det lyder skr\u00e6mmende, men i virkeligheden handler det om, at en robot erstatter rutineopgaver. En mareridtsdr\u00f8m for lavtkvalificeret personale; men <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oracle.com\/a\/ocom\/docs\/artificial-intelligence\/hbr-pulse-survey.pdf\">forskning<\/a><\/noindex> Harvard Business Review h\u00e6vder: der vil ikke v\u00e6re opsigelser, men produktiviteten vil stige. Der er <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iZJ6W803zaU\">grundlag<\/a><\/noindex> for at tro. Teknologien vil inden for 2 \u00e5r overvinde sin popularitetskrise og generelle foragt og derefter blive udbredt overalt.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Blandt de teknologier, som vil blive massivt omtalt af evangelister og informationsmigtere af alle slags i fremtiden, er \"neuromorf hardware\" s\u00e6rligt interessant. Det er elektriske enheder (chips), der <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/neuromorphic-hardware-trying-to-put-brain-into-chips-222132f7e4de\">imiterer<\/a><\/noindex> de naturlige biologiske strukturer i vores nervesystem med hensyn til energieffektivitet. Hvis vi forenkler det meget, handler det om superydelse takket v\u00e6re arbejdsdeling (asynkron opdatering af neuroner). Store firmaer som IBM og Intel arbejder allerede p\u00e5 at skabe neuromorfe chips. Men John Connors h\u00e6r har tid til at forberede sig p\u00e5 det kommende apokalyptiske scenarie \u2013 Gartner forudser, at teknologien vil n\u00e5 modenhed om hele 10 \u00e5r. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Ang\u00e5ende digital etik (Digital Ethics) er det bem\u00e6rkelsesv\u00e6rdigt, at der tales meget, men implementeringen g\u00e5r langsomt. Retningen er blevet fremh\u00e6vet som en separat kategori inden for AI: det indeb\u00e6rer, at vi b\u00f8r fastl\u00e6gge nogle etiske principper, normer og standarder for dataindsamling, implementering af AI i livet, s\u00e5 det fungerer som hos <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk\/ai-and-digital-ethics\">mennesker<\/a><\/noindex>. I sidste ende kan vi m\u00e5ske tage en id\u00e9 fra Asimov. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"2017-vs-2019\">2017 vs 2019<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Det er sjovt, men i 2017 var alt <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017\/\">anderledes<\/a><\/noindex>, der blev ikke engang afsat et s\u00e6rskilt hype-cyklus til AI: AI-teknologierne gik i spidsen for de nye teknologier (Emerging Technologies) sammen med blockchain og augmented reality. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Maskinl\u00e6ring og dyb l\u00e6ring var i 2017 p\u00e5 hypens Olympus, og i 2019 fortsatte de deres vej mod en nedgang, alts\u00e5 <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/vc.ru\/tribuna\/81813-zhivoy-primer-kompyuternogo-zreniya-v-promyshlennosti\">produktivt arbejde<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Forresten, droner har i et \u00e5r v\u00e6ret i en cyklus fra h\u00f8jdepunkt til nedgang, og i 2019 bev\u00e6gede de sig tilbage mod h\u00f8jdepunktet. Og det sker, ja. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>I 2019 kom 8 nye teknologier ind i cyklussen. Blandt dem er cloudtjenester til AI (Cloud Services), markedspladser for AI (Marketplaces), kvanteberegning med AI (Quantum Computing). Generelt velkendte v\u00e6rkt\u00f8jer (i sn\u00e6vre kredse), som begynder at blive sat p\u00e5 AI-skinner.<\/p>\n<p>Kilde: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/post\/475032\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0441 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u043c 2017 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0412\u043e-\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 Gartner Hype Cycle? \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b \u0437\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0445\u0430\u0439\u043f\u0430 \u043a \u0435\u0451 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044e. \u0421\u0435\u0439\u0447\u0430\u0441 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a \u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0441\u0451. \u0410 \u0432\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u044f. \u0336\u0413\u0336\u043d\u0336\u0435\u0336\u0432\u0336. \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a. \u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f, \u0435\u0451 \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[702],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 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