CAGR as the Curse of Specialists, or Forecasting Errors of Exponential Processes
Among those reading this text, of course, there are many specialists. And, of course, everyone is well versed in their fields and has a good assessment of the prospects of various technologies and their development. At the same time, history (which “teaches that it teaches nothing”) knows many examples when experts confidently made various forecasts and missed oh-so-very much: “The phone has too many shortcomings for […]