Li-Ion Technology: Unit Cost Decreases Faster Than Forecasts

Hello again, friends!

Article "Lithium-Ion UPS Time: A Fire Hazard or a Safe Step into the Future?"we touched upon the question of the predicted cost of Li-Ion solutions (drives, batteries) in specific terms - $ / kWh. Then for 2020 there was a forecast of $200/kWh. Now, as can be seen from the KDPV, the cost of lithium has gone below $ 150 and a rapid fall below $ 100 / kWh is predicted (according to Forbes). What does it change, you ask? First of all, the gap between the cost of classic batteries and advanced technologies, as well as solutions based on them, is being reduced. Let's try to calculate on the basis of the case of the same Japanese submarine on Li-Ion batteries.

Initial data

We will take as initial data:

• $200/kWh cost forecast from our article on lithium fire safety
• $300/kWh cost forecast from our 2018 article “UPS and Battery Array…..”
• estimated cost difference between VRLA and Li-Ion solutions by 1,5-2 times, taken from our article from 2018 on the fire hazard of lithium.

Now let's count

1. The predicted decline in the cost of drives was too cautious, the real decline is much faster
2. Electric vehicles are driving the fall in the cost of industrial solutions based on lithium-ion batteries: the energy density in the battery is increasing, layouts are changing, and production is growing rapidly. You can read more in "Review here"
3. The estimated battery power of the Japanese submarine was 17 MWh, we take the unit cost of lithium for 2017 in the amount of $ 300 / kWh. We get 5,1 million dollars.
4. If we start from the real value of the KDPV, then the fall was about 2% over 30 years. At the prices of 2019, we get a savings of about 1,5 million dollars. Not bad huh? I think when building such boats, it is necessary to load it with Li-Ion batteries at the last moment, right before going to sea trials
5. It can be assumed that for industrial solutions on lithium batteries, the fall in cost, read the equalization of prices with lead-acid battery arrays, is happening faster than expected. In a 2018 article, the estimated difference between lithium battery UPSs was 1,5-2 times more expensive than a classic UPS. At present, this gap should objectively be smaller...

… to be continued…

Source: habr.com