IPv6 Implementation Progress Over 10 Years

Probably everyone involved in the implementation of IPv6, or at least interested in this set of protocols, knows about Google IPv6 traffic graph. Similar data is collected Facebook и APNIC, but for some reason it is customary to focus on Google data (although, for example, China is not visible there).

The graph is subject to noticeable fluctuations - readings are higher on weekends, and noticeably lower on weekdays, now the difference exceeds 4 percentage points.

I became curious what would happen if we remove this noise and whether it would be possible to see something interesting if we clean the data from weekly fluctuations.

I downloaded file from google and calculated the moving average. I threw out the results for February 29, I didn’t figure out how to equalize, and it seems that this does not affect anything.

Here is the result:

Here here hi-res.

From interesting observations:

• on the 2020 chart, the moment of the start of mass quarantines is clearly visible - the third week of March;
• the first week of May is accompanied by a surge of a couple of percentage points, apparently, not only in Russia it is customary not to work at this time.
• the nature of the previous surge that occurred in the third week of April in 2017, in the fourth week of March in 2016 and in 2018, and in the fourth week of April in 2019 is not clear. I think this is some kind of holiday associated with the lunar calendar, but I don’t know what exactly?

Orthodox Easter? Some national holiday in India? I will be glad to ideas.

• the spike in late November is likely related to Thanksgiving in the US.
• after bursts at the end of August, there usually happens a month and a half of stagnation or even a rollback, the further, the more noticeable. By mid-October, this effect disappears. I guess this is due to the start of the school year, university campuses don't support IPv6 enough. Then other forces compensate for this fall.
• and of course, the end of the year is the biggest spike.

Quarantines around the world continue, so we probably won’t see the effect of the cancellation - the fall will be spread out over months.

What other non-obvious things have you noticed?

Source: habr.com