The processes taking place in the market force analysts to revise their forecasts for the state of the semiconductor industry. And the adjustments they are making are, if not appalling, then at least troubling: expected silicon product sales for this year are down double-digit percentage points from initial forecasts. For example, according to a recent report from IHS Markit, the semiconductor market will decline by 7,4% compared to last year. In absolute terms, this means a drop in sales by $35,8 billion to $446,2 billion. But such adjustments are especially frightening against the background of the fact that the previous version of the assessment of the market situation, published in December 2018, assumed an increase of 2,9%. In other words, the picture is deteriorating rapidly.
Another unfortunate fact for the industry is that the 2019% market decline predicted by IHS Markit analysts for 7,4 will be the deepest drop for the semiconductor industry since the 2009 global economic crisis, when total silicon chip sales sank 11%. .
The revised IHS Markit forecast is also consistent with the calculations of other analytical companies, which also noticed a steady downtrend that emerged in the first quarter. Thus, IC Insight predicts a 9% decrease in chip sales for the current year compared to the previous year. And the statistical group at the Semiconductor Manufacturers Association, using data from its member manufacturers, expects the market to fall by 3%.
Interestingly, according to Myson Robles Bruce, research manager at IHS, many semiconductor suppliers were initially quite optimistic and even expected to see sales growth in 2019, albeit small, but still. However, chipmakers' confidence "quickly transformed into fear as they witnessed the depth and severity of the current downturn." The seriousness of the problems looming on the semiconductor market is connected both with the weakening of demand and with the strong overstocking of warehouses in the first quarter. The most notable decline in revenue knocked down the DRAM, NAND, general purpose microcontrollers, 32-bit microcontrollers and ASIC segments. Here, sales fell by double-digit percentages.
However, in the latest IHS forecast, there was also a place for a βray of hopeβ. Despite the most serious decline in the last decade, the semiconductor market will begin to recover in the third quarter of this year. The main driving force in this process will be sales of flash memory chips, which are expected to grow from the second half of the year on the back of increased demand for solid state drives, smartphones, laptops and servers. In addition, analysts predict a possible increase in demand for server processors in the second half of the year.
Source: 3dnews.ru