Recently I faced the problem of choosing an apartment and, of course, the first thing I decided to do was to find out what was happening in the real estate market and, as it usually happens, half of the experts say that real estate will rise, the other argues that, on the contrary, the price will fall. In the end, I decided to figure it out myself, and this is what came of it.
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In order to understand how the price has changed recently, it was necessary to find the real selling prices of real estate. Prices from target sites like or they donβt fit, since apartments usually go there at a discount and you canβt find out the real sale price, then I noticed a real estate website where you could see the actual price for which you bought an apartment. Of course it's about the site. , you can read more about it in review. In a nutshell, we can say that this organization is engaged in the sale of apartments under a contract of fulfilled rent at auction.
To find out in which districts of Moscow what prices are, and it would also be interesting to look at which apartments are being sold more, in which districts they are buying closer to the starting price, and in which the price can change a lot. To do this, I first of all parsed data from the site , these data are divided into two types: past and not past auctions, and apartments that were not sold can be in two places at once.
I summarized the parsed data in a table for clarity:
The table shows data for the last 10 auctions.
In the table above, column 'A' contains information about the auction apartments (addresses without spaces and capital letters due to spelling differences in the source data), the first line shows the dates of future and past auctions. Sold apartments are filled with 'xxx' line by line (this is done in order to understand which apartments can be available in auctions that have not yet been announced), the top line of the cell contains the starting price, and the bottom line of the sale price, in the cells of future auctions, a link with the description of the apartment .
Also in this table, you can see some interesting patterns, for example, as a rule, if an apartment is not sold for two auctions, then at the third auction the price will be reduced and so on every two auctions, although if you look at a larger sample, there are exceptions to this rule and the apartment becomes cheaper already at the next auction, if it was not sold at the first.
To understand in which areas and which groups of apartments are more traded, I placed all the addresses on the map:
Link to full .
Addresses of apartments that have been or will be sold are marked on the map, the sale price (not sale / auction), the year of sale and the date from which the apartment was sold are indicated in the title of the tag. The number in the label shows the number of rooms in the apartment. The tag description contains information about past and future auctions, as well as the address (addresses without spaces and capital letters due to spelling differences in the source data) and other information about the apartment.
Thanks to the map, you can see how the price in the area has changed over time, how much they are trading for similar options. Interestingly, it can be noted that the new fund, i.e. apartments in new buildings, even in areas with poor transport accessibility, are usually sold by bargaining, but apartments of the old stock can be bought at a starting price or with a little bargaining. On the map, you can make a rough forecast for the auction, considering the previously sold apartments located around the apartment put up for auction.
Although it is not entirely correct to compare the apartments of the old and the new fund, and the auction apartments are strongly biased towards the old fund due to the specifics , but still consider some histograms with these assumptions.
Histogram of average apartment prices by year and number of rooms:
Total number of apartments: 397
It is not entirely correct to consider average prices in isolation from the location area, so we will consider apartments in each area separately (only areas within the Moscow Ring Road are considered).
Histogram of average prices for one-room apartments, divided by district and year:
Total number of one-room apartments: 218
Histogram of average prices for two-room apartments, divided by district and year:
Total number of two-room apartments: 159
Unfortunately, there are too few three-room apartments; therefore, no correct histogram can be built.
Total number of three-room apartments: 20
Given the assumptions outlined above (again, at the time of this writing, only one auction took place in 2020), it is still possible to draw some conclusions, if you look at the distribution of prices by region, you can see that in general the price is growing, but it is already planned a reversal, so prices in some areas begin to turn around, while in others growth begins to slow down (which, in general, indicates the achievement of maximum prices and, most likely, their subsequent decrease).
Source code on
Source: habr.com