US sanctions against Huawei, which came into force in mid-May, deprive its subsidiary HiSilicon of the opportunity to produce processors of its own design on the TSMC pipeline. While the management of the latter hopes for a illusory successful outcome, analysts are making forecasts which of TSMC's clients will take over the quotas of the retired Chinese competitor.
On resource pages Credit Suisse experts share their thoughts on this matter, who indicated in the table the approximate distribution of TSMC's revenue from orders of the largest customers since 2015. Data for the current year is predictive, as well as for the next. The main idea is that by the end of this year, the share of TSMC's revenue from HiSilicon orders will not exceed 8,9%, and by the end of the next year it will naturally reach zero.
The peak year for HiSilicon was the previous year, when the parent company Huawei, against the backdrop of the first wave of sanctions, began to intensively form product stocks. TSMC's revenue during that period grew year-on-year from $2,78 to $4,95 billion. Then the share of HiSilicon in TSMC's total revenue exceeded 14%, the Chinese developer became the Taiwanese contractor's second customer after Apple in terms of generated revenue. This year, the bar will not be able to be kept, and HiSilicon will fall back to fourth place with 8,9% of TSMC's revenue.
The last of the companies does not lose hope to increase revenue for the current and next year. After the departure of HiSilicon from the number of TSMC customers, other companies will be able to distribute the released production quotas among themselves. Credit Suisse experts are convinced that Apple, MediaTek and AMD will take advantage of this opportunity next year. The first will be able to increase its share in TSMC's revenue from 22,7% to 26,4%, the second - from 4,9% to 8,2%, the third - from 7,8% to 9,3%. Broadcom will also strengthen its position from 8,0% to 8,6%, but Qualcomm risks losing the status of TSMC's second largest customer to AMD as early as next year. NVIDIA closes the top seven, and its share will even decrease from 6,1% to 4,9% next year, according to the forecast of Credit Suisse. An alternative supplier of graphics and central processors for it is the Korean company Samsung.
Source: 3dnews.ru