July is over - the first month of the third quarter of 2019 - and analysts of the DRAMeXchange division of the TrendForce trading platform observations and forecasts about the price movement of NAND memory in the near future. This time it was not easy to make a prediction. happened in June production at the Toshiba factory (part-time with Western Digital), and the companies have only recently restored the production of NAND-flash in full. In addition, Japan supply of raw materials for the production of chips in South Korea. Also, the US is increasing trade pressure on China, while memory overproduction and weak market demand are forcing manufacturers to reduce investment in factories and projects. What will happen to NAND memory prices?
Analysts at DRAMeXchange are confident that, in general, contract prices for NAND flash will continue to decline in the third quarter despite all the problems listed above. High inventories of NAND chips and products based on it, as well as low market demand, which will not be able to noticeably improve even in the traditionally active period after the summer holidays, will lead to a further decrease in contract prices for NAND. Contracts for the supply of memory were signed in June before the emergency shutdown of the Toshiba plant, so by the time new contracts are signed in September, this factor will lose or weaken its significance.
Another thing is interesting: against the backdrop of a decrease in contract prices for drives and other products using NAND chips, the price of silicon wafers that have not yet been cut into crystals is growing. The decrease in the average selling price of NAND wafers has been ongoing since November 2017 and has reached the level of production costs. Toshiba's factory shutdown resulted in a reduction in the supply of machined wafers, allowing NAND chip makers to raise the price of wafers with finished chips. By the end of July, the value of ASP for silicon with NAND increased by 15%. In August, the price of plates will also continue to rise, but at a weaker pace, as production has returned to its previous level. It is important to us that this surge in prices will not have a noticeable impact on the cost of products with flash memory on board.
As for the panic amid the complicated relations between Japan and South Korea, they will not have a decisive impact on the production of semiconductors by Samsung, SK Hynix or others. It is only about the exclusion of South Korean companies from the so-called "white list" of companies that trade with Japan with a minimum of permits. It is noted that South Korean companies are the only Asian ones that are on the white list. Tighter rules for work, including the purchase of raw materials in Japan, will only put South Korean companies in the queue and companies from other countries in the region. In addition, the Japanese authorities have already expanded the number of employees in the divisions in charge of permits, and this will not create problems for anyone. Unless it will hit the conceit of the Koreans, but this will not affect the price of NAND. Should not be reflected.
Contract prices for eMMC/UFS drives (smartphones) and client SSDs will continue to decline in August and September, dropping up to 5% for the quarter as a whole. Price cuts may fade in the fourth quarter as inventories fall back to normal levels. The stage of overproduction will be overcome. Contract prices for SSDs will drop more in the third quarter, to around 10%. There is more overstocking in this market. The server SSD market is more difficult - it is still sleeping, so contract prices for corporate drives will drop to 15% in the third quarter. In general, while you can relax. The cost of SSDs will continue to decline for a month, two months, and probably longer.
Source: 3dnews.ru