- The current 14nm process will remain in service until at least 2021
- Intel's transition presentations mention all kinds of processors and products, but not desktop
- Mass production of Intel products using 7nm technology will be deployed no earlier than 2022
- All engineering resources will be transferred from the 14nm process to 7nm, and the 10nm process will be handled by other specialists
Dell roadmap leaks get some idea of Intel's plans to release new processors, and in the desktop segment, 14nm products should appear for a very long time, based on this source of information. However, Intel's investor event this week could shed light on the situation with the release of 10nm and 7nm products, and everything would be fine if not for the depressing silence of company representatives about the timing of the release of new desktop processors.
Initial plan Intel on the development of 10-nm technology had to be adjusted
It's no secret that six years ago, Intel was confident in its ability to master the mass production of 10nm processors in 2016. As Intel executives who have changed during this time have repeatedly explained, too aggressive targets for geometric scaling of transistors were chosen when planning the transition to a 10-nm process technology, and it was not possible to master the production of 10-nm products within the specified time frame.
Cannon Lake's 10nm mobile processors began shipping last year, but they were only suitable for use in ultra-thin mobile devices, had no more than two cores, and the on-chip graphics subsystem had to be turned off altogether. Actually, the supply volumes of Cannon Lake were not significant, therefore, Intel now indicates 10 as the beginning of the period for mastering the 2019-nm process technology. Mobile 10-nm Ice Lake processors will be presented in June this year, at the same time they will begin deliveries to laptop manufacturers, and they will already roll out finished computers based on them in the second half of the year.
Only according to the official version, Intel's 14-nm process technology has changed three generations in its evolutionary development, and there were even more minor improvements. Intel is proud to say that the specific performance per watt of power consumed improved by 14% from the first generation of the 20nm process to the third.
Moreover, if you look at Intel's latest presentations from the May investor event, you can find that the life cycle of the 14nm process technology has been extended until 2021 inclusive. By that time, the serial production of the first 7nm products will already begin, and the 14nm process technology will still be relevant for a certain range of Intel products.
There was no mention of the transfer of desktop processors to 7nm technology
Even the leak about Intel's plans from Dell's presentation did not contain any information about the release date of 10nm processors for desktop applications. In this context, there were mainly mobile processors with ultra-low power consumption, whose number of cores did not exceed four. Even in this case, they will not receive wide distribution until 2021. By that time, 10nm Tiger Lake processors will already be released, which will offer support for PCI Express 4.0 and will be produced using the second generation of 10nm technology. Tiger Lake processors will also get new graphics with 96 execution cores, sharing a common architecture with discrete products announced in 2020.
By the end of 2019, 10-nm Lakefield processors with a complex Foveros spatial layout, which implies the integration of both system logic and RAM in one package, will have time to come out. Even the “presumably desktop” first discrete Intel GPU in the last twenty years will be released in 2020 on 10nm technology, but desktop processors in the context of the transition to 10nm technology were not mentioned at all at the event for investors.
There is also enough certainty in the server segment. Before 10nm Ice Lake-SP processors are released in the first half of next year, 14nm Cooper Lake processors will be released that are design compatible with them. What technology the successors to Ice Lake-SP in the face of Sapphire Rapids will be produced on, Intel representatives do not specify, but Navin Shenoy admitted during a Q&A session with analysts that the second product released using 7nm technology after GPU for accelerators computing will be the central processing unit for the servers. Given that the 7nm first-born will be released in 2021, then both 7 and later periods are equally suitable for the debut of a server-class 2021nm central processor. Sapphire Rapids is due to debut in 2021, with a successor coming in 2022.
Thus, when describing its current plans for migrating to the 7nm process, Intel clearly mentions GPUs and CPUs for server applications, but leaves desktop and mobile out of the picture.
Storming 7nm Technology: A Visionary Hope for Desktop Products
Intel CEO Robert Swan made several important announcements regarding the adoption of the 7nm process technology. First, he said that after 2021, this technical process will allow the company to reduce the level of operating costs. This confidence is based on the fact that now the company has to develop three technological processes in parallel: 14 nm, 10 nm and 7 nm. Attempts to catch up with the 10nm process are pushing up costs, and once the 7nm process is up and running, the company hopes to regain cost control in line with its core plan for several years.
Secondly, Swan said that all the engineering personnel that were involved in the creation of Intel's 7nm products will be thrown into the development of 14nm technology. Among the latter, we know quite a few desktop processors with a large number of cores and a high level of performance. Does this mean that this team of specialists will succeed in creating desktop 7nm processors? The answer to this question will certainly have to be sought outside the current decade.
Thirdly, the head of Intel explained that the mass production of Intel products using 7nm technology will be deployed only in 2022, after the appearance of the first discrete graphics processor released a year earlier using 7nm technology using ultra-hard ultraviolet lithography. Whether these will be desktop or mobile processors is also difficult to say with certainty now, because even in the sequence of transferring products to new technical processes, Intel's priorities have changed.
Source: 3dnews.ru