Japanese edition of the Nikkei the possible impact of the emerging national production of NAND and DRAM memory in China on the global market. A few Chinese companies still have to overcome many obstacles to the production of mass memory, but even now at an early stage they pose a certain threat to the leaders of this market.
According to the source, NAND (3D NAND) memory manufacturer Yangtze Memory expects to triple the output of wafers with flash memory chips to 2020 60-mm wafers per month by the end of 300. DRAM memory is produced by another company - ChangXin Memory. By the end of 2020, it will quadruple the output of memory wafers to 40 wafers per month. Given that around the world today, about 1,3 million NAND wafers are produced every month and about the same number of DRAM wafers - only 2,6 million wafers per month, then the combined share of these two Chinese manufacturers will account for 4% of world production of NAND and DRAM.
Four percent is the maximum value if the scrap rate is kept to a minimum and the memory manufacturers do not increase production volumes. It is clear that the world's memory leaders will not sit back and watch Chinese rivals thrive. Sanctions, patent lawsuits can be used, and, finally, the Chinese can simply be crushed by volumes and dumping. Yangtze Memory owner Tsinghua Unigroup, according to the Nikkei, posted a sharp increase in net losses to $2019 million in the first half of 480, which may indirectly indicate the burden of China's nascent national memory industry.
At the same time, representatives of the Taiwanese company Lite-On Semiconductor shared their vision of the situation with Japanese journalists. According to Lite-On Semi, which knows the SSD market well and releases them itself (Lite-On has a connection with the Japanese through the Plextor division), for Chinese manufacturers, the formation of profitability occurs according to other laws. Chinese companies can receive government subsidies and be provided with forced orders at government-set prices if required.
Such a model may lead to economic collapse, but for some time it will be able to support the domestic manufacturer. For example, Lenovo has already placed orders for memory manufactured by Yangtze Memory, although it is small in capacity and may not be used in the most advanced products. This does not yet mean that Chinese memory will soon begin to crowd out foreign ones, but for the Chinese domestic market, the release of national memory in certain volumes will be of decisive importance.
Finally, the 5% of the DRAM market that ChangXin Memory can take is more than Nanya, Taiwan's largest DRAM manufacturer today (it holds 3,1% in Q3 2019). If Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron can not be afraid of the Chinese for a long time, then in the future Taiwan should prepare to leave the market.
Source: 3dnews.ru