On March 29, iCluster organized a lecture at the Ankudinovka technopark in Nizhny Novgorod Tom Raftery, futurist and IoT evangelist at SAP. The brand manager of the Smarty CRM web service met him personally and learned how and what innovations penetrate into everyday life and what will change in 10 years. In this article, we want to share the main ideas from his speech. Interested please under cat.
Presentation by Tom Raftery is available .
Winemaking
Briefly about the forecast
The βGoods as a Serviceβ business model will spread. This means that the product is created on demand, but not stored in a warehouse, but immediately sent to the client. This significantly reduces the cost. Customization available.
Solutions
- Motorcycles. Harley-Davidson offers buyers the ability to customize their motorcycle settings. You need to go to the site, determine the characteristics and place an order. You can even come to the factory and follow the process of creating a motorcycle. Production time has been reduced from 21 days to 6 hours.
- Spare parts. UPS manufactures spare parts using 3D printers. The parts list is available on the company's website. The client must upload a 3D model to the site, select the material and determine the price. After payment, he receives the order at the address.
- Air. Kaeser Kompressoren makes compressed air at the request of customers. It is needed to use pneumatic energy, for example, for jackhammers, diving tanks or paintball. The customer sends the requirements and promptly receives a batch of cubic meters.
Energetics
Briefly about the forecast
Energy from the sun and wind will become cheaper than energy from gas and coal.
solar
- Swanson effect. Watt of photovoltaic cells made of crystalline silicon fell in price from $76,67 in 1977 to $0,36 in 2014, that is, almost 213 times.
- Volumes of energy. In 2018, the capacity of the received solar energy reached 109 GW. This is a record. In 2019, growth to 141 GW is forecast.
- Battery capacity. The capacity of lithium-ion batteries is growing. By 2020, the mileage of a car without recharging will reach 1000 km, which is comparable to a diesel engine.
- The cost of kWh. The price of battery kWh is decreasing every year. If we compare prices for 2018 and 2010, then it decreased by 6,6 times.
Solutions
The breakthrough is being made not by energy companies, but by car manufacturers. New technologies help to receive solar energy and convert it into electricity. It is used to "charge" cars and "smart" homes.
- Tesla has signed a contract to supply solar panels and lithium-ion batteries to 50000 homes in Australia.
- Similar products and services were offered by Nissan, which developed its own technology.
New solutions resemble virtual factories based on cloud computing. For example, an 80 kWh battery is installed in an electric car. 250 cars is 000 GWh. In essence, this is a mobile, distributed and controlled energy storage.
Wind energy
In the next 10 years, it will become the largest source of energy in Europe. Wind turbines will become more profitable than gas or coal.
Solutions
- Tesla has built a battery station in Australia that runs on windmills. Its creation cost $66 million. In the first year of operation, it "recaptured" $40 million of investments, in the second year it will pay off in full.
- Hywind Scotland, an offshore wind farm, has provided power to 20 UK households. The power factor was 000%, for gas and coal it is on average lower - 65-54%.
How will it affect
You will become more energetic π
Healthcare
Briefly about the forecast
Doctors will be able to monitor the health of patients 24/7 and receive alarms.
Solutions
- Monitoring. Sensors monitor health parameters: pressure, pulse, sugar level, etc. Data is collected 24/7, transferred to doctors in the cloud, and alerts are configured. Example: FreeStyle Libre.
- HLS. Gamification is used to lead a healthy lifestyle. Users complete tasks, receive credits, buy drinks with them, and go to the movies. They get sick less often and recover faster. Example: Vitality
- Transportation. B2B platforms help get people to clinics and hospitals faster. Examples: Uber Health, Lyft and Allscripts. It's like a regular Uber, only an ambulance.
- Clinics. IT organizations have created medical clinics. They treat only their employees. Examples: Amazon (with JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway) and Apple.
- Artificial Intelligence. Google AI now detects breast cancer with 99% accuracy. Going forward, the corporation plans to invest in disease diagnostics, data infrastructure and health insurance.
How will it affect
The patient will know the diagnosis and receive a prescription before going to the doctor in person. If you need to go to the hospital, you don't have to wait for an ambulance. Drug injections are automated.
Transport
Briefly about the forecast
Electric motors will significantly replace internal combustion engines and diesel engines.
Solutions
- For cars: Toyota, Ford, VW, GM, PSA Group, Daimler, Porsche, BMW, Audi, Lexus.
- For trucks: Daimler, DAF, Peterbilt, Renault, Tesla, VW.
- For motorcycles: Harley Davidson, Zero.
- For aircraft: Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce, EasyJet.
- For excavators: Caterpillar.
- For trains: Enel, which supplies RZD with lithium-ion batteries.
- For ships: Siemens, Rolls-Royce.
Legislation
In Spain, ordinary cars have already closed access to the center of Madrid. Now only electric cars and hybrids can drive there.
In Sweden, since 2030, the production of cars with an internal combustion engine has been banned.
Norway has introduced a ban similar to the Swedish one, but it will come into force 5 years earlier: from 2025.
China requires that at least 10% of cars delivered to the country be electric. In 2020, the quota will be expanded to 25%.
How will it affect
- Liquidation of gas stations. They will be replaced by V2G (Vehicle-to-grid) gas stations. They will allow you to connect the car to the power grid. As an electric car owner, you will be able to buy or sell electricity to other car owners. Example: Google.
- Transmission of weather data. You can install sensors that collect weather data: precipitation, temperature, wind, humidity, etc. The data will be bought by meteorological companies, since the information is more accurate and up-to-date. Example: Continental.
- Batteries for rent. Car batteries are expensive. Not everyone buys a few pieces, but it depends on how far the vehicle will travel without recharging. Renting additional batteries will allow you to travel long distances.
Autonomy
Briefly about the forecast
Drivers will not be needed. Driving becomes unprofitable.
Solutions
A class of self-driving cars has been created that is more efficient than conventional cars.
- No steering wheel or pedals. General Motors released a car without manual controls. It is self-driving and transports passengers.
- Self-propelled taxi. Waymo ("daughter" of Google) has launched a taxi service that does almost without a driver.
- Tesla Autopilot. With it, the risk of getting into an accident decreased by 40%. Insurers have offered discounts to those who use autopilot.
- Goods delivery. Kroger supermarkets have launched unmanned grocery delivery. Previously, the company organized 20 robotic warehouses.
How will it affect
Transportation will become cheaper and will decrease due to lower costs and increased payback.
- Round the clock work. Self-driving cars are constantly taking orders and do not stop for a "smoke".
- Lack of drivers. They won't have to pay. Driving schools will close. No license required.
- Reducing the number of breakdowns. In ordinary cars - 2000 moving elements, in autonomous cars - 20. Less breakdowns - cheaper maintenance.
- Reducing the number of accidents. Self-driving cars are less likely to have an accident. No need to spend money on car repairs and treatment of the body.
- Savings on parking. After the trip, you can send the car to carry other passengers or send it to the garage.
Conclusion: what will happen to people?
Even with total automation, people will not be left without work. Their employment will be transformed to reflect the new infrastructure.
Routine operations will be performed without human intervention. The quality of life will increase. There will be more time for yourself and solving the world's problems.
Source: habr.com