On August 3 in Moscow, between 12:00 and 14:30, Rostelecom's AS12389 network experienced a slight but noticeable subsidence. NetBlocks the first “state shutdown” in the history of Moscow. This term refers to the shutdown or restriction of access to the Internet by the authorities.
What happened in Moscow for the first time has been a global trend for several years now. Over the past three years, there have been 377 targeted internet shutdowns by authorities around the world, according to .
States are increasingly using Internet access restrictions, both as a censorship tool and as a tool in the fight against illegal activities.
But the question is, how effective is this tool? What are the results of using it? Recently, several studies have appeared that shed some light on this issue.
There are two main ways to turn off the Internet, which are most commonly used:
The first is the disruption of the functioning of the entire network, as it .
The second is blocking access to certain websites (for example, social networks) or instant messengers. .
The world's first major internet outage occurred in 2011 when the Egyptian government shut down internet and mobile networks for five days during "».
But it wasn't until 2016 that some African governments began to actively use regular blackouts. The first blackout trial ball was played by the Republic of the Congo, which blocked all telecommunications for a week during the presidential elections.
It is important to understand that blackouts are not always political censorship. during school exams to prevent leakage of exam questions. In Brazil WhatsApp in 2015 and 2016 after Facebook Inc (which owns WhatsApp) denied legal requests for data in a criminal investigation.
In addition, it is certainly true that hate speech and fake news can spread very quickly on social networks and instant messengers. One of the ways that the authorities use to prevent the dissemination of such information is to restrict access to the network.
Last year, for example, the thread was triggered by rumors spread via WhatsApp, leading to a staggering 46 murders.
However, in the digital rights group believe that the dissemination of false information often serves only as a cover for temporary shutdowns. For example, Internet outages in Syria have shown that they tend to coincide with significantly higher levels of violence by government forces.
Official VS Real Reasons for Internet Shutdown in 2018 According to Data .
Geography of outages
In 2018 year recorded 196 Internet outages worldwide. As in previous years, the majority of outages were in India, with 67% of those reported globally.
The remaining 33% in various countries: Algeria, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Mali, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and Russia.
Impact of outages
was published in February 2019, author Jan Rydzak of Stanford University has been researching internet outages and their effects for about 5 years.
Jan Rydzak studied India, where there were more internet outages than anywhere else in the world. The reasons for many of them have not been explained, but those that are officially recognized, as a rule, were explained by the need to suppress a variety of violent collective actions.
In total, Rydzak analyzed 22 protests in India between 891 and 2016. His research shows that both restrictions on access to the Internet and social media do not appear to result in lower levels of escalation.
Where protests were violent, he found that internet outages tended to be linked to escalation. Each subsequent day after the Internet was turned off led to more violence than when the action was held with constant Internet access.
Meanwhile, during the internet outage at peaceful protests, which are likely to rely more on careful coordination through digital channels, no statistically significant effect of the outage was found.
In addition, the findings suggest that, in some cases, the disconnection of network access has led to the replacement of non-violent tactics with violent ones, which seem to be less dependent on effective communication and coordination.
Cost of outages
While cutting off internet access is becoming an increasingly popular measure for many governments, it's not a freebie.
in 19 countries from July 2015 to June 2016, Darrell West of the Brookings Institution found that the total loss of GDP was estimated at $2,4 billion.
List of countries with the highest losses from the Internet shutdown.
It is important to note that Darrell West only considered the economic impact of the outages on . He did not assess losses from forgone tax revenues, the impact on productivity, or the loss of investor confidence as a result of the shutdowns.
Thus, the $2,4 billion figure is a conservative estimate that likely understates the real economic damage.
Hack and predictor Aviator
The issue certainly needs further study. For example, the answer to the question of how much the study of shutdowns in India can be projected onto any other countries is at least not obvious.
But at the same time, it seems that shutting down the internet is at best a poorly performing tool with a high cost of use. The use of which can lead to negative consequences.
And possibly other risks, for example, restrictions on international organizations or courts, a deterioration in the investment climate. The probability of occurrence of which has not yet been studied.
And if so, why?
Source: habr.com