One of the main scientific challenges of our time has become the race to create the first useful quantum computer. Thousands of physicists and engineers participate in it. IBM, Google, Alibaba, Microsoft and Intel are developing their concepts. How will a powerful computing device change our world, and why is it so important?
Imagine for a moment: a full-fledged quantum computer has been created. It has become a familiar and natural element of our lives. Classical calculations are now only talked about at school, in history lessons. Somewhere deep in cold basements, powerful machines operate on qubits to power artificially intelligent robots. They perform all the dangerous and simply monotonous tasks. Walking through the park, you look around and see all kinds of robots. Humanoid creatures walk dogs, sell ice cream, repair electrical wiring, and sweep the area. Some models replace pets.
We got the opportunity to reveal all the secrets of the Universe and look inside ourselves. Medicine has reached a new level - innovative drugs are being developed every week. We can forecast and determine where scarce resources such as gas and oil are located. The problem of global warming has been solved, energy saving methods have been optimized, and there are no more traffic jams in cities. The quantum computer not only controls all robotic cars, but also ensures free movement: it monitors the situation on the roads, adjusts routes and takes over control from drivers if necessary. This is what the quantum age might look like.
Quantum Gold Rush
The application prospects are amazing, which is why investments in quantum developments are growing every year. The global quantum computing market was valued at $81,6 million in 2018. Market.us experts estimate that by 2026 it will reach $381,6 million. That is, it will increase by an average of 21,26% per year from 2019 to 2026.
This growth is fueled by the growing use of quantum cryptography in security applications and driven by investments from quantum computing market stakeholders. By the beginning of this year, private investors had funded at least 52 quantum technology companies worldwide, according to an analysis by the scientific journal Nature. Major players such as IBM, Google, Alibaba, Microsoft, Intel, and D-Wave Systems are struggling to create a practically applicable quantum computer.
Yes, as long as the money flowing into this area each year represents a small outlay (compared to $2018 billion in AI investment in 9,3). But these numbers are significant for an immature industry that does not yet boast performance indicators.
Solving quantum problems
You need to understand that today the technology is still in its infancy. It was possible to create only prototypes of quantum machines and single experimental systems. They are capable of executing fixed algorithms of low complexity. The first 2-qubit computer was created in 1998, and it took humanity 21 years to bring the devices to the proper level, the so-called “quantum supremacy”. This term was coined by Caltech professor John Preskill. And it means the ability of quantum devices to solve problems faster than the most powerful classical computers.
A breakthrough in this area was made by the Californian company Google. In September 2019, the corporation announced that its 53-qubit Sycamore device completed a calculation in 200 seconds that would take a state-of-the-art supercomputer 10 years to complete. The statement caused a lot of controversy. IBM categorically disagreed with such calculations. In its blog, the company wrote that its Summit supercomputer will cope with this task in 000 days. And all that is needed is to increase the disk storage capacity. Although in reality the difference was not so colossal, Google was indeed the first to achieve “quantum supremacy.” And this is an important milestone in computer research. But nothing more. Sycamore's feat is purely for demonstration purposes. It has no practical application and is useless for solving real problems.
The main problem is the hardware. While traditional computational bits have a value of 0 or 1, in the strange quantum world, qubits can be in both states at the same time. This property is called superposition. Qubits are like spinning tops: they rotate both clockwise and counterclockwise, move up and down. If you find this confusing, then you're in great company. Richard Feynman once said, “If you think you understand quantum mechanics, you don’t understand it.” Brave words from the man who won the Nobel Prize for... quantum mechanics.
So, qubits are extremely unstable and subject to external influences. A car passing under the laboratory windows, the internal noise of the cooling system, a flying cosmic particle - any random interference, any interaction disrupts their synchronicity and they decohere. This is detrimental to computing.
The key question for the development of quantum computing is which hardware solution from the many explored will ensure the stability of qubits. Whoever solves the coherence problem and makes quantum computers as common as GPUs will win the Nobel Prize and become the richest person in the world.
Path to commercialization
In 2011, the Canadian company D-Wave Systems Inc. was the first to sell quantum computers, although their usefulness is limited to certain mathematical problems. And in the coming months, millions of developers will be able to start using quantum processors through the cloud - IBM promises to provide access to its 53-qubit device. So far, 20 companies have received this privilege under a program called Q Network. Among them are equipment manufacturer Samsung Electronics, automakers Honda Motor and Daimler, chemical companies JSR and Nagase, banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays.
Most companies experimenting with quantum computing today see it as an integral part of the future. Their main mission now is to find out what works in quantum computing and what doesn’t. And be ready to be the first to introduce technology into business when it is ready.
Transport organizations. Volkswagen, together with D-Wave, is developing a quantum application - a traffic control system. The new program will enable public transport organizations and taxi companies in large cities to use their fleet more efficiently and minimize passenger waiting time.
Energy sector. ExxonMobil and IBM are promoting the use of quantum computing in the energy sector. They are focused on developing a range of new energy technologies, improving energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The scale and complexity of the challenges faced by the energy sector are beyond the scope of today's traditional computers and are well suited to testing on quantum ones.
Pharmaceutical companies. Accenture Labs is partnering with 1QBit, a quantum software company. In just 2 months, they went from research to proof-of-concept—using an application to model complex molecular interactions at atomic levels. Thanks to the power of quantum computing, it is now possible to analyze larger molecules. What will this give to society? Innovative drugs with the least side effects.
Financial sector. Technologies based on the principles of quantum theory are increasingly attracting the interest of banks. They are interested in processing transactions, trades and other types of data as quickly as possible. Barclays and JP Morgan Chase (with IBM), as well as NatWest (with Fujitsu) are already conducting their experiments in the development of specialized software.
The acceptance by such large corporations and the emergence of enterprising quantum pioneers speaks volumes about the commercial viability of quantum. We are already seeing quantum computing being applied to real-world problems, from improving energy efficiency to optimizing vehicle routes. And importantly, the value of the technology will increase as it develops.
Source: habr.com