AMD's quarterly report will be published when the first of May has already arrived in the main part of Russia. Some analysts, in anticipation of quarterly reports, share forecasts on the further direction of the company's share price movement. The fact is that since the beginning of this year, AMD shares have risen in price by 50%, mainly against the backdrop of optimism associated with the second half of the year, and not the company's real achievements in the first half of the year.
Resource publishes a consolidated forecast, voiced by industry analysts on the eve of the release of AMD quarterly reports. According to most experts, the company's revenue in the first quarter will reach $1,26 billion. This is 23,6% less than in the same period last year, but it should be borne in mind that last year's revenue could be significantly affected by the "cryptocurrency factor", although it the company tried in every possible way to underestimate its significance.
Over the past two years, according to the source, AMD has been able to outperform revenue forecasts 63% of the time, and EPS forecasts have come true 75% of the time.
Based on the technical analysis of the dynamics of the price of AMD shares, representatives argue that there are enough indicators of the company's stock appreciation after the release of quarterly reports. In many ways, investor sentiment will be determined tomorrow by forecasts for the second quarter, which will have to announce the head of AMD Lisa Su (Lisa Su). Analysts agree that the company will generate about $1,52 billion this quarter. If AMD's own forecast turns out to be worse than market expectations, this will put pressure on the stock price.
With the second half of the year, many market players are pinning hopes for growth in economic indicators, and not just AMD, which by that time will bring its 7-nm central processors to the market, both server and client. According to formal criteria, Intel is not doing very well in the server processor segment: difficulties in mastering 10nm technology are postponing the appearance of Ice Lake-SP server processors until 2020. However, at a recent quarterly conference, the head of Intel expressed confidence that with 14nm Xeon processors in the arsenal, the company will successfully compete with 7nm AMD EPYC processors.
It is important to understand that the expansion of 7nm EPYC processors in the server segment cannot be lightning fast due to the traditional conservatism of this sector. Even according to AMD's own forecasts, the share of products of this brand in the segment of processors for server applications will not exceed 10% by the end of this year. After the release of the 7nm processors of the Rome generation, growth will be active, but mainly due to the βlow base effectβ, and not in absolute terms. On the other hand, AMD's profit margins will be positively impacted by the growing popularity of server processors. Since the introduction of the first generation Zen architecture processors, the company has been able to steadily increase its profit margin.
Experts generally preferred to take a neutral and waiting position. Further dynamics of the share price, according to them, will depend on the expectations voiced by Lisa Su for the second quarter and all of 2019. Analysts warn that one problem for AMD is the lack of a long, unbroken history of lossless operation for several quarters in a row. With such volatility in indicators, it would be too risky for investors to rely only on favorable expectations.
Source: 3dnews.ru