Jim Clark, director of quantum hardware at Intel, with one of the company's quantum processors. Photo; Intel
- Quantum computers are an extremely exciting technology that holds promise for creating powerful computing capabilities to solve previously unsolvable problems.
- Experts say that IBM has led the way in quantum computing, which is why Google, Intel, Microsoft and many startups are influenced by it.
- Investors are being attracted by quantum computing startups, including IonQ, ColdQuanta, D-Wave Systems and Rigetti, who have the potential to change this market.
- However, there is a catch: Modern quantum computers are generally not as powerful or as reliable as today's supercomputers, and they also require special conditions to run and boot.
In January, IBM made a splash when it announced the release of the IBM Q System One, the world's first quantum computer model available to businesses. The device was housed in a sleek 9 cubic foot glass case.
This is an important milestone for quantum computers, which are still found in research labs. IBM says buyers are already set to get their hands on the technology, which is promising in fields ranging from chemistry, materials science, food production, aerospace, drug development, stock market forecasting and even climate change.
IBM Q System One. Photo: IBM
The reason for the excitement lies in the fact that a quantum computer has seemingly magical properties that allow it to process exponentially more information than a conventional system. A quantum computer is not just a very fast computer, more precisely, it is a completely different computing paradigm that requires a radical rethinking.
The winner in the technology race will be the company that takes advantage of the opportunities presented by this technology. IBM, Microsoft, Google and other tech giants and startups are betting on this technology.
Business Insider asked Bob Sutor, VP of IBM Q Strategy and Ecosystem, a couple of questions about how to make these systems available to people: how will people get access to them? How can a multitude of people learn how to use quantum computers to accomplish their tasks?
There is little chance of seeing quantum computers in the office anytime soon. The experts we spoke to believe that, despite being available from IBM, it will be another five to ten years before quantum computing truly becomes mainstream. IBM Q System One is currently only available as a cloud computing service to select customers. It will be some time before people can acquire something like this and make it work for personal purposes.
Indeed, experts say that quantum computers show great promise, but they are far from mass production. They are extremely fragile and require special working conditions. Moreover, quantum computers today are not as reliable or as powerful as the computers we already have.
“We believe that in about ten years, a quantum computer will change your life or mine,” Jim Clark, director of quantum hardware at Intel, told Business Insider. “Actually, we are only on the first mile of the marathon right now. That doesn't mean we're not concerned about it."
What is a quantum computer?
Bill Gates once said that the mathematics behind the quantum was beyond his comprehension, but not everyone agreed with this.
“The notion that quantum physics is physics is also physics and it is too complicated is somewhat misleading,” Chris Monroe, CEO and co-founder of IonQ, convinces Business Insider. What makes her incomprehensible to many people is that she is incomprehensible, but she is as incomprehensible to me as to you. If something can be in superposition, it means that it can be in two states at the same time. It's weird because we don't see this in the real world."
The computers we have used display data as a string of 1s or 0s, called binary. However, a quantum computer can represent data as 1, 0, or, most importantly, both numbers at the same time.
When a system can be in more than one state at the same time, this is called "superposition" - one of the seemingly magical properties of quantum computing. Another key principle here is "entanglement," which is a quantum property that allows two particles to move in perfect synchrony, no matter how far they are physically separated.
As explains in Scientific American magazine, these two qualities come together in a computer that can process far more data simultaneously than any system on the market today.
The power of a quantum computer is measured in qubits, the basic unit of measurement in a quantum computer. Just like modern computers have 32- or 64-bit processors (a measure of how much data they can process at once), a quantum computer with more qubits has a significantly greater amount of processing power.
Inside a quantum computer. Photo: IBM
The sky is the limit
All this means that a quantum computer can solve problems that were previously limited by computing power.
For example, a quantum computer can crudely solve the well-known traveling salesman problem, a complex computational problem that requires finding the shortest route between multiple cities before returning home. It sounds simple, but if you look at it in terms of mathematics, finding the only optimal path becomes more difficult as you add more cities to its route.
Similarly, a quantum computer could wade through the trickiest, most time-consuming tasks, sifting through vast amounts of financial, pharmaceutical, or climate data to find optimal solutions. Indeed, quantum startup D-Wave is already partnering with Volkswagen to analyze traffic patterns and weed out a huge amount of noise in order to get to the bottom of it.
Its usefulness in the field of cryptography is discussed. A quantum computer is able to master an encryption method different from the previously known cipher, which allows it to easily decipher even state secrets. There is a lot of interest from world governments in this useful feature, while activists fear that the advent of quantum computing could destroy privacy.
Physical task
“Because quantum computing is still in its early stages of development, there is a lot of information that is still unproven,” said Matthew Briss, vice president of R&D at Gartner. “But buyers are already looking for an application to determine the competitive advantages of quantum computing for their business,” he says.
Despite all the hype, experts believe that quantum computers are as far from the leading edge as PCs were in the 1950s. Of course, they are gaining momentum, but slowly.
“Quantum computing is like a slow moving train,” Brian Hopkins, vice president and chief analyst at Forrester, told Business Insider. “If it passes one inch per second, then in a month it will pass two inches per second. Pretty soon it will start moving faster.”
The big problem now is that a quantum computer can't do anything that a classical computer couldn't do. The industry is looking forward to the moment called quantum supremacy, when quantum computers go beyond the current limitations.
“When clients come to us, the main thing they tell us is that they don't care which model, as long as it's good for their business,” says Briss, an analyst. - There is no model that could outperform classical algorithms. We really need to wait until quantum computer hardware improves.”
IBM Research employee Cathy Pooley inspects a cryostat that helps quantum computers keep their temperature low. Photo: Andy Aaron, IBM
The big problem is the lack of computing power. Quantum supremacy is expected to require a computer with 50 qubits of power. Although this milestone has been crossed in the laboratory, it is unstable and impossible to maintain. Indeed, qubits can be both error-prone and unstable, which leads to problems with their generation and reduces their potential.
Another important factor is more material. Quantum computers must be completely isolated from their environment in order to function, and they require very low temperatures. Even the weakest vibrations can cause the qubits to break down, pulling them out of superposition, much like a child knocking on a table causes spinning coins to fall onto the table.
Previous quantum computers, such as the IBM Q System One, are so bulky that the necessary conditions for isolation and cooling become a real problem. Exacerbating this problem is the lack of necessary components: superconducting cables and low-temperature refrigerators. They are in severe short supply.
Ultimately, this means that although knowledge is improving and technology is advancing, quantum computing is still practically unfeasible.
"One of the challenges in my workgroup is manipulating materials, silicon, metals, so that we can create a very homogeneous environment," Intel's Clarke said. — This is basically the best semiconductor technology. The technologies we need to create quantum computing on a large scale do not yet exist.”
Another problem is that quantum computers have an undeniable potential to provide unforeseen computing power. However, there are not many people in this world who actually have experience programming or operating these systems, and fascinated potential buyers are trying to figure out how to actually use it.
great quantum race
Analysts say that IBM is currently leading the quantum computing race thanks to the limited commercial availability of the IBM Q System One. Since it is accessed through the cloud, IBM can maintain these special conditions to keep this quantum computer functioning while still allowing select customers to use it.
“I think [the IBM quantum computer] is rocking,” analyst Briss said. — I think that the model of quantum computing as a service is the correct model. By putting it in a container and handling specific tasks, they are really trying to improve its quality.”
Sarah Sheldon and Pat Humann at IBM are working on a dilution refrigerator that cools quantum computers. Photo: IBM
At the same time, analysts note that any of the players in this market can have a breakthrough at any time that will allow them to take the lead, and that this is still a necessary rivalry.
Different IT giants approach this problem differently. Intel, IBM, Google and quantum computing startup Rigetti are building systems based on superconducting circuits based on modern supercomputers.
takes a completely different and possibly riskier approach in trying to create a better qubit. The topological qubit that Microsoft is trying to create fragments electrons to store information in multiple places at the same time, making it more stable and less prone to destruction. It's less reliable than what its competitors are trying to build, analyst Hopkins says, but the result will be a major step forward for the entire field of quantum computing.
“They have embarked on a gamble and many believe that they will never succeed,” says Hopkins.
As for adventures, startups like IonQ and D-Wave are betting on cutting-edge technologies like ion trapping and quantum annealing. Simply put, they are trying in many ways to achieve greater performance and stability from each qubit, using completely new methods.
“This allows us to create a quantum computer that solves complex problems and continuously progresses in this,” Mark Johnson, vice president of design and development of processors and quantum products at D-Wave, told Business Insider.
An IBM quantum technologist walks through the IBM Q Computing Center at the Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York. Photo: Connie Zhou for IBM
Quantum startups
The rise of quantum computing has sparked a wave of investor interest in related startups. Robert Sutor of IBM estimates that there are about 100 startups in the world in the field of quantum software, hardware, and even consulting. This is small compared to the huge startup market, but much larger than before.
“I've been in this field for a very long time, from the very beginning,” IonQ's Monroe said. - For a long time it was in its infancy, until 5-8 years ago it attracted attention and attracted huge investments. It became clear that the time had come.”
Chris Monroe, CEO and co-founder of quantum computing startup IonQ. Photo: IonQ
Some, like Rigetti, are ready to take on the titans of technology with their own quantum chips and sophisticated quantum computing systems.
"It's the backbone of our business," Betsy Masiello, vice president of products at Rigetti, told Business Insider. — In the quantum space, there are many companies that are working on software applications in the field of quantum computing. We manufacture chips and build computing systems.”
Matthew Kinsella, managing director of Maverick Ventures, says he is optimistic about the field of quantum computing. His company has gone so far as to invest in ColdQuanta, a company that makes hardware used in quantum systems. He expects quantum computers to surpass today's systems in five to ten years. Maverick Ventures has made a long-term bet.
“I really believe in quantum computing, although it may take longer than expected before a quantum computer is better than a traditional computer for everyday tasks. Most likely in the next few years we will get the advantages of quantum computers in solving problems on a small scale,” said Kinsella.
D-Wave's 2000Q Systems Laboratories. Photo: D-Wave
Kinsell, as well as the analysts we spoke to, are in anticipation of the so-called “quantum winter”. There may be hype around quantum computers, but people are encouraging themselves, experts warn. The machines are not yet perfect, and it will be years before investors see the results.
In the future,
Even beyond quantum supremacy, experts assure us that there is still room for traditional computers and supercomputers. Until then, there are still cost, size, reliability, and processing power issues to resolve before we can discuss it.
“We need to take a breath,” said analyst Briss. “There are a lot of exciting, time-consuming things going on in this area. It is a conglomeration of physics, computer science and, frankly, scientific analysis. We wouldn't have to study this if we knew all the answers, but there's a lot of research ahead of us in the future."
Rigetti quantum computer. Photo: Rigetti
However, for many it is clear that this is the future. Just as the makers of the first mainframe computer didn't realize it would eventually lead to an increase in palm-sized pocket smartphones. A quantum computer could be the first step on an entirely new path.
Few, like Microsoft VP of Corporate Governance Todd Holmdahl, are optimistic enough to say that this could be more meaningful than artificial intelligence and machine learning today. He used to tell his kids that they should do what they're passionate about and that they can always get a job in artificial intelligence. Now he will say the same about quantum computing.
“This is an area that will develop. We need people to fill it up and keep it alive,” Holmdahl said. “She plays an important role in our generation, enabling us to create amazing things in the future.”
Source: habr.com