The pandemic and associated economic uncertainty has cooled the heat of investment in many industries, including semiconductors. This means that 2020 will be the second year in a row that plant funding has declined relative to the previous year. But the spring of economy is compressed only to certain limits, after which the inevitable straightening follows. And the release of financial energy will not keep you waiting.
Industry organization SEMI analysts that 2021 promises to be a big year for global spending on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Spending is expected to increase by 24% over the year to a record $67,7 billion. DRAM memory factories will lead (which is good news). Companies will spend up to $30 billion to expand memory production. The second place in terms of investment in factories will be taken by the release of logic and contract manufacturing of chips with planned investments of up to $29 billion.
The 3D NAND flash business will increase capital expenditures even earlier, expected to increase by 30% year-on-year this year. Therefore, next year the growth of investments in the development of 3D NAND production will be more modest - at the level of 17% per year. Even better with DRAM memory. If this year, capital expenditures for the production of RAM for the year decreased by 11%, then next year they promise to increase by 50% per year. In the production of logic this year, companies also reduced investments by 11% y/y, but in 2021, investment growth will not be as strong as in the case of DRAM and will amount to a modest 16% y/y.
No less impressive changes are expected in other areas of semiconductor manufacturing. Thus, investment in the production of image sensors in 2020 will grow by 60% and add another 36% in 2021. This year, 40% more funds will be invested in the production of analog and mixed AD logic than a year earlier, and in 2021 capital expenditures will increase by another 13%. In power semiconductors, investment growth will be 2020% in 16, and an impressive 2021% in 67.
It should be said that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic forced analysts to revise their earlier forecast for investments in factories (the new forecast is shown in red on the chart above). In particular, manufacturing equipment costs shifted from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2020. In the first quarter, global investment in semiconductor manufacturing declined sequentially by 15%. In the second quarter, the world began to revive after the first shock from the pandemic and quarantine. Additionally, the demand for equipment in the second quarter may be fueled by fears of sanctions against Chinese companies.
In general, this year, equipment costs for the year will decrease by 4%. In 2019, the decline in global capital expenditures was greater, at 8% per year. The black streak, according to analysts, will be overcome in the second half of this year, although the pandemic and the resulting unemployment will definitely try to pull the economy down. Fortunately, the strengthening of "digital transformation" in all areas of human life and activity will counter this negative trend.
Source: 3dnews.ru