{"id":55072,"date":"2020-01-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/novaya-tehnologicheskaya-platforma-20-h-godov-pochemu-ya-ne-soglasen-s-tsukerbergom"},"modified":"2026-02-15T19:54:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T17:54:48","slug":"novaya-tehnologicheskaya-platforma-20-h-godov-pochemu-ya-ne-soglasen-s-tsukerbergom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/en\/blog\/news\/novaya-tehnologicheskaya-platforma-20-h-godov-pochemu-ya-ne-soglasen-s-tsukerbergom","title":{"rendered":"A new technological platform of the 2020s. Why I disagree with Zuckerberg","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I recently read an article where Mark Zuckerberg made predictions for the next decade. I really enjoy the topic of predictions and try to think along those lines myself. In this article, he mentioned that every decade sees a change in the technological platform. In the '90s, it was the personal computer, in the 2000s, the internet, and in the 2010s, it was the smartphone. For the 2020s, he expects virtual reality to be that platform. I can only partially agree with this, and here\u2019s why...<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A new technological platform of the 2020s. Why I disagree with Zuckerberg\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/88f2511d35b3d1ca8ddc95a0a7279294.jpg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><br \/>\nA person wearing virtual reality glasses looks ridiculous. They can only be used at home and only in a familiar setting surrounded by understanding people. So pure virtual reality isn't our choice. Now, augmented reality \u2014 that's more interesting. But I'll discuss that later. <\/p>\n<p>I have my own vision of the technological platform that will be foundational in the 2020s. It will rest on three pillars: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Voice control<\/li>\n<li>Biometric authentication<\/li>\n<li>A distributed network of gadgets<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nThe voice assistants that are now popping up everywhere will eventually lead to a significant leap in this field. I believe we will arrive at a certain engine capable of handling voice messages and extensions for it tailored to each area. Just as we currently write bots for Telegram, we will write extensions for voice assistants. So, Alice will not just set alarms but will also be able to place fast food orders by dictation through an app that offers an API for such solutions.<\/p>\n<p>No matter how much we curse voice messages, they will soon become a part of our lives. Messengers will gradually migrate along the technological chain of audio \u2014 text \u2014 translation \u2014 audio. Undoubtedly, the ability to communicate via text will remain, but it will not dominate. A new generation is emerging that doesn't enjoy typing text but loves to communicate. Nevertheless, the message format in messengers is more convenient than a direct phone conversation, as it allows for pauses. By the way, on this same wave, overall 'literacy' will significantly improve since computers will be writing, making fewer mistakes. <\/p>\n<p>But right now, working with voice messages is inconvenient. At a minimum, you need to take out your smartphone, see who the message is from, press the button to listen to it, record a response into the smartphone's microphone, and send it back to the person. If a voice assistant could read the message in headphones, that would be more user-friendly. Whether it's reading audio or voicing text\u2014it's not that crucial; it's all the same. <\/p>\n<p>But listening is only half the task. There are some additional considerations. For instance, security. If we want protection, access to correspondence should only be granted to a <a href=\"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/en\/ssl-sertifikat\/thawte-123-wildcard\/\"  data-wpil-monitor-id=\"3310\">trusted user<\/a>. Identifying them can be done through biometrics. The easiest way to authenticate is by voice when replying to a message, for example. <\/p>\n<p>The second aspect of security is privacy. When we communicate verbally, those around us can hear us. This isn't always convenient or acceptable. And that's a problem. We'll not reach neurointerfaces this decade. <b>So we need something that can distinguish whispering, articulation, or lip movement, and based on that, generate text or audio messages. And such neural networks already exist. <\/b><\/p>\n<p>Another issue is the speaker, microphone, and\/or camera. Taking out a smartphone for every voice message, or just carrying it in hand for that purpose, isn't going to be convenient. Therefore, the camera, microphone, and display of the smartphone should be moved to the area around the mouth, ears, and eyes. Hello, Google Glass. <\/p>\n<p>Allow me a brief digression. Do you remember the Newton PDA or Tablet-PC? They were quite solid, but concepts of tablets that were ahead of their time. The tablet only reached mass adoption with the emergence of the iPad. Many arguments have been made about this; I don't want to dive deep into the discussion, but I'll rely on this analogy. I feel that the time for mass smart glasses hasn't yet come, but it is close. The glasses exist, but mass adoption has not. For me, I established this criterion for mass adoption: when everyone in your circle already has it, and finally, your parents buy it too. Then it becomes a mass technology. Today's glasses have too many teething issues that need to be resolved. Without addressing this, their entry into the market is blocked.<\/p>\n<p>Whether these are transparent glasses with a projector or opaque glasses with screens isn't that important. It's just that opaque glasses look a bit odd, as I mentioned earlier, so I don\u2019t think glasses will evolve in that direction. <\/p>\n<p>Augmented reality for such glasses is simply fantastic. Provided that algorithms and video processing become so fast and efficient that projection onto the visible world is flawless, then smart glasses will be in demand. If the projection is not on the glasses' screen but directly onto the retina, that's even better \u2014 applications like 'show all women nude' and 'display all data about a person' will make them popular. Pure cyberpunk, and it's already close.<\/p>\n<p>It's obvious that in a car, such glasses would be contraindicated for the driver \u2014 what if they malfunction and obstruct the view? (Yes, yes. Drones won\u2019t dominate the technology landscape in the 2020s; they'll need this decade to ramp up.) Therefore, there will be a dedicated voice assistant and a projection system on the windshield. But everything else will remain the same \u2014 the ability to listen to and send messages, voice control, etc. This implies a unified profile across all devices, which we\u2019ve already reached. The only difference will be in transparent authentication via face, voice, or retinal scanning. <\/p>\n<p>A smart speaker with a voice assistant, as an element of the smart home, will also fit into this ecosystem, although it won't gain the same popularity as wearable gadgets. The same goes for fitness trackers and smartwatches \u2014 they will occupy their niche and remain there. In fact, this has already happened. <\/p>\n<p>In principle, the rise of any IT technology is determined by how convenient it is to make money and watch pornography with it. The market for applications for glasses and voice assistants is a new market; money will appear as soon as it becomes large enough. And augmented reality glasses are simply made for watching porn, so my prediction is that the technology will take off and set trends for the entire decade. So, let\u2019s meet in 10 years and review the results.<\/p>\n<p>UPDATE. I want to reiterate the highlighted point above. The interfaces will essentially be voice-based, but not loud. To give a voice command, it won't be necessary to say it out loud or even to pronounce it at all. Yes, it may sound strange now, but these technologies are just at the beginning of their journey.<br \/>\n<br \/>Source: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/post\/483554\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u041d\u0435\u0434\u0430\u0432\u043d\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043b \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u044e, \u0432 \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0439 \u041c\u0430\u0440\u043a \u0426\u0443\u043a\u0435\u0440\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0433 \u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u044b \u043e \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0435\u043c \u0434\u0435\u0441\u044f\u0442\u0438\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0438. \u0422\u0435\u043c\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432 \u043c\u043d\u0435 \u043e\u0447\u0435\u043d\u044c \u043d\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f, \u0441\u0430\u043c \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0430\u044e\u0441\u044c \u0432 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0440\u0443\u0441\u043b\u0435 \u0434\u0443\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044c. \u0422\u0430\u043a \u0432\u043e\u0442, \u0432 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u044b \u0435\u0433\u043e \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u043e \u0442\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043a\u0430\u0436\u0434\u043e\u0435 \u0434\u0435\u0441\u044f\u0442\u0438\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u0441\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u043f\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u044b. \u0412 90-\u0435 \u044d\u0442\u043e \u0431\u044b\u043b \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0441\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u044c\u044e\u0442\u0435\u0440, \u0432 \u043d\u0443\u043b\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0435\u0442, \u0430 \u0432 10-\u0435 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u044b \u0441\u043c\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0444\u043e\u043d. \u041d\u0430 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":55073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[702],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - 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