{"id":92211,"date":"2020-08-24T19:41:59","date_gmt":"2020-08-24T17:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/administrirovanie\/zhizn-v-2030"},"modified":"2020-08-24T19:41:59","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T17:41:59","slug":"zhizn-v-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/en\/blog\/administrirovanie\/zhizn-v-2030","title":{"rendered":"Life in 2030","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

Frenchman Fabrice Grinda has always loved to take risks \u2014 he has successfully invested in hundreds of companies: Alibaba, Airbnb, BlaBlaCar, Uber, and even the Russian equivalent of Booking \u2014 the service Oktogo. He has a special sense for trends and for what the future might hold. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Mr. Grinda has not only invested in other people's businesses, but he has also created his own. For instance, the online classifieds platform OLX, which is used by hundreds of millions of people, is his brainchild.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Additionally, he sometimes dedicates time to literary creativity and writes quite controversial yet intriguing essays. About what is and what will be. He is interested in the future \u2014 both as an investor and as a visionary. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

A few years ago, he gave an interview to Alliancy magazine, discussing the world in 2030. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Life<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Alliancy magazine:<\/strong> What significant changes do you foresee in 10 years?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Fabrice:<\/strong> The Internet of Things, for example, refrigerators that order groceries when they run low, drone deliveries, and such. All of this is on the horizon. Furthermore, I can see some important breakthroughs in five areas: automotive, communication, medicine, education, and energy. The technologies exist; the future has already arrived, just not evenly everywhere. For large-scale deployment, costs need to be reduced, and usability simplified.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Cars will become 'shared'. Autonomous vehicles have already traveled millions of miles accident-free. However, while an average car in the States costs less than $20,000, the system to convert it into a self-driving car costs around $100,000. From a financial perspective, widespread adoption is still unfeasible. There is also a lack of legal framework, as it needs to be determined who will bear responsibility in the event of an accident.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

And what about profitability?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Cars are the second largest expense in a household budget, even though they sit unused about 95% of the time. People continue to purchase cars because it turns out to be cheaper than using Uber and a driver; moreover, the car is available at any time, especially in sparsely populated areas. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

But when the costs of drivers disappear, and cars become autonomous, the main expense will be depreciation over several years. A \"shared\" car, used 90% of the time, will become much cheaper\u2014thus, at all ownership levels, owning a car will no longer make sense. Businesses will buy fleets of cars and then lease them to other businesses that will operate them, similar to Uber, with such tight scheduling that a car will be available in a couple of minutes, even in less densely populated areas. This will particularly change society, as the primary source of employment in the U.S. is driving. Many jobs will be freed up, and the cost of driving will decrease. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Has there been a revolution in communication?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

No. The most common tool, without which life is hard to imagine, the mobile phone, will completely disappear. In principle, we have already made significant progress in 'reading the brain' and are at a stage similar to voice recognition 15 years ago. Back then, a powerful specialized card and hours of training were needed for effective voice recognition. Today, by wearing a helmet with 128 electrodes and investing similar training hours, one can learn to mentally control a cursor on a screen or pilot an aircraft. In 2013, brain-to-brain communication was even established; someone was able to move another person's hand using just thought\u2026<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

In 2030, we will work where we want, when we want, and for as long as we want.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So what are we waiting for?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

It's quite possible that in 10 years we will have a couple of transparent and invisible electrodes in our brains, allowing us to use our thoughts to send instructions to a miniature computer, which will show us emails and texts using lasers on glasses that display them on the retina or through smart contact lenses. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

We will have a kind of \"enhanced telepathy\"; we will exchange information mentally: I think the text, send it to you, and you read it on your retina or contact lenses. We will no longer need a wearable device with a tiny screen and a constantly bowed head that distracts us and limits our field of vision. But even in 10 years, this will only be the beginning. Lasers capable of sending images to the retina already exist, but the lenses are still of low quality. Reading thoughts is still approximate and requires a supercomputer with 128 electrodes. By 2030, the equivalent of such a supercomputer will cost $50. Developing small and efficient electrodes, as well as relevant software, may take 20-25 years. However, smartphones are inevitably going to disappear.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

And what about medicine?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Today, five doctors can give five different diagnoses for the same disease, because humans are not that good at diagnosis. For example, IBM's supercomputer Watson is better at detecting some types of cancer than doctors. This makes sense, as it considers every micron of MRI or X-ray results, while a doctor looks at them for no more than a couple of minutes. In 5 years, diagnostics will only be handled by computers, and in 10 years, we will have a universal diagnostic device for all common diseases, including colds, HIV, and others. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Around the same time, a revolution will also occur in surgery. The robot doctor \"Da Vinci\" has already performed five million surgeries. Surgery will continue to become increasingly roboticized or automated, which will reduce the performance gap among surgeons. For the first time, the cost of medications will start to decrease. Furthermore, all paperwork and administrative inefficiencies will vanish after the implementation of electronic medical records. In 10 years, we will have diagnostics with constant feedback on what we should do in terms of nutrition, medications, along with more effective surgeries and significantly lower healthcare costs.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Another revolution \u2014 education?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

If we brought Socrates into our time, he would understand nothing except for how our children are educated: different teachers talk to classes of 15 to 35 students. It makes no sense to continue educating our children as it was done 2,500 years ago, given that each student has different skills and interests. And now, as the world changes so rapidly, consider how amusing it is that education is time-bound and ends after school or university. Education should be a continuous process occurring throughout life, as well as being more effective.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

N.B. from the editor:<\/strong> I can imagine how surprised Socrates would be if he saw how our intensives<\/a><\/noindex>take place. Before the coronavirus pandemic, offline intensives still somewhat resembled traditional education (lecture halls, speaker-teachers, students at desks, using laptops and tablets instead of clay tablets or papyrus, and instead of 'mai\u00eautics' or 'Socratic irony', Docker<\/a><\/noindex> or advanced Kubernetes course<\/a><\/noindex> with practical cases), which had not changed much in tools since ancient times, but lectures via Zoom, smoking areas, and communication on Telegram, presentations, and recorded sessions in personal accounts\u2026 Socrates would definitely not have understood this. So, the future has already arrived \u2014 and we didn\u2019t even notice. And the coronavirus pandemic has pushed us towards changes. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

How will this change our opportunities?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

On sites like Coursera, the best professor in their field offers online courses for 300,000 students. It makes much more sense for the best teacher to educate a large number of students! Only those who wish to obtain a degree pay for exams. Thus, the system becomes much fairer.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

And what about primary and secondary schools?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

In some schools, trials of an automated learning system are currently underway. Here, the teacher is no longer a talking machine but a coach. Learning occurs through software that then asks questions and can adapt to the students. If a student makes mistakes, the program revisits the material in different ways, and only after the student fully understands does it move on to the next stage. Students in the same class progress at their own pace. This is not the end of school, as besides knowledge, students need to learn how to communicate and interact, which requires the presence of other children. People are inherently social beings.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Anything else?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The biggest breakthrough will be in continuous education. Requirements are rapidly changing; in sales a few years ago, it was important to know how to optimize your visibility in search engines (SEO). Today, understanding app store optimization (ASO) is essential. How can one acquire this knowledge? By taking courses on websites like Udemy, a leader in this area. These courses are created by users and are available to everyone for a price ranging from $1 to $10\u2026<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

N.B. from the editor:<\/strong> Honestly, I'm not sure that courses created by users rather than practitioners are such a good idea. The world is now flooded with travel and beauty bloggers. If we add teacher-bloggers to the mix, it will be difficult to find truly useful and professional material amid the abundance of content. I know well how much effort dozens of people need<\/a><\/noindex>, to create a truly useful course on the same monitoring and logging of infrastructure in Kubernetes<\/a><\/noindex>, based not on manuals and articles, but on practical experience and proven cases. Well, and on the stumbles encountered \u2014 how could we work and master new tools without them? <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In simpler terms \u2014 will the working world inevitably change?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Millennials (those born after 2000) cannot stand working from 9 to 5, working for a boss, or the boss himself. Currently, we are witnessing a surge in entrepreneurship in the U.S., fueled by the accessibility of various on-demand service applications. Half of the jobs created after the 2008 crisis are individuals working for themselves or those working for Uber, Postmates (food delivery), or Instacart (grocery delivery from neighbors).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

These are personalized services available on demand\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Cosmetology services, manicures, haircuts, transportation. All these services have been reintroduced with greater flexibility. These ideas also apply to programming, editing, and design services. Work is becoming less incremental, requiring less time. Millennials work day and night during the first week, and then only five hours the next. For them, money is a means to acquire life experiences. By 2030, they will make up half of the workforce.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Will we be happier in 2030?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Not necessarily, as people quickly adapt to changes in their conditions; this process is called hedonic adaptation. However, we will remain the masters of our fate. We will work as much or as little as we want. On average, people will have better health and education. The cost of most things will be lower, leading to a significant improvement in quality of life.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

So there won't be social inequality?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

There are discussions about increasing inequality, but in reality, social classes are converging. In 1900, rich people went on vacations, but not the poor. Today, one flies on a private jet while another flies with EasyJet, yet both board a plane and go on vacation. 99% of American poor have access to water and electricity, and 70% of them own a car. When looking at factors like infant mortality and life expectancy, inequality is decreasing.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

What about climate change and energy costs? Can they affect these achievements?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

This issue will be resolved without government regulation and intervention. We are moving toward a coal-free economy, but for purely economic reasons. One megawatt of solar energy now costs less than a dollar, compared to 100 dollars in 1975. This has resulted from improvements in manufacturing processes and productivity. Cost parity for solar energy has also been achieved in some regions where building power stations is expensive. By 2025, the cost of a 'solar' kilowatt will be less than that of a 'coal' kilowatt without subsidies. Once this happens, tens of billions of dollars will be invested in the process. By 2030, the accelerated adoption of solar energy will begin. The cost of a megawatt will drop significantly, which in turn will lower costs for many other things and improve the quality of life. I am quite optimistic.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Life<\/p>\n

Only registered users can participate in the survey. Please log in<\/a><\/noindex>, please.<\/p>\n

Do you believe in Fabrice Grind's predictions?<\/h2>\n