Source REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko
Hai Habr.
2020 yana shirin zama mai ban mamaki. Wani yanayin juyin juya halin launi yana bunƙasa a Belarus. Ina ba da shawara don abstract daga motsin zuciyarmu kuma in yi ƙoƙarin duba bayanan da aka samo akan juyin launi daga ra'ayi na bayanai. Mu yi la'akari da abubuwan da za su iya haifar da nasara, da kuma illar tattalin arziki da irin wadannan juyin juya hali.
Wataƙila za a yi cece-kuce.
Idan kowa yana sha'awar, don Allah duba cat.
Lura Vicki: Kalmar "juyin launi" ba ta da ma'anar ma'ana, masu bincike sun bayyana dalilai, manufofi da hanyoyin aiwatar da su ta hanyoyi daban-daban. Wani lokaci ana fassara kalmar a matsayin canji na gwamnatocin da ke mulki, da farko ana aiwatar da su ta hanyar amfani da hanyoyin gwagwarmayar siyasa marasa tashin hankali (yawanci zanga-zangar tituna).
Gaskiyar cewa juyin launin launi yana faruwa a Belarus an samo shi daga kalmomin A.G. Lukashenko.
Saitin bayanai
An dauki duk juyin launi 33 (kalmar ita ce abin da yake. Mawallafin ya ci gaba da yin amfani da wannan kalma, ciki har da rashin nasarar sanya launi da juyin mulki), bisa ga majiyar da ta kasance a matsayin. , don rashin wani abu mafi kyau.
An dauki nau'ikan nau'ikan:
- kasa [kasar]
- Fara [farkon_kwanan wata] kuma [karshen_kwanan wata]. An dauki farkon zanga-zangar su kansu a matsayin tushe, ba tare da la'akari da abubuwan da aka gabatar ba.
- Dalili [Dalili] - nau'in yana da mahimmanci, bisa ga mahallin: rashin gamsuwa da manufofin yanzu [siyasa], sakamakon zabe [zaben], fannin tattalin arziki [tattalin arziki, rashawa [cin hanci da rashawa]
- Nasarar juyin juya halin Musulunci [nasara] - ko juyin juya hali ya yi nasara. Ƙimar binary
- Yawan masu zanga-zangar. Kiyasin adadin mahalarta na iya bambanta sosai. Dangane da wannan, an ɗauki matsakaicin ƙima daga mafi ƙanƙanta (yawanci kiyasin hukuma)[mahalarta_max_min], mafi girman ƙima (yawanci kididdigar kafofin watsa labaru masu zaman kansu ko masu zanga-zangar) [mahalarta_max_max] kuma an dauki ma'anarsu na geometric [av_masu halarta]. Wannan shi ne abin da aka kara la'akari
- Yawan al'ummar kasar a shekarar da aka fara zanga-zangar [yawan jama'a]
- Ranar zaben sabon shugaban kasar [cur_leader_zaba]. Tun da farko na yi amfani da ranar da za a rantsar da shi, amma sai ya zamana an yi zanga-zanga da dama tun kafin wani shugaba ya hau mulki.
- Ranar haihuwa Kwamanda [cur_elected_dob]
- Kididdigar 'yancin 'yan jarida a shekarar da aka fara zanga-zangar.press_freedom_index (PFI)]. Mafi girma, mafi rashin kyauta
- Matsayin kasar a cikin ma'aunin rashin 'yancin 'yan jarida a cikin shekarar da aka fara zanga-zangar.press_freedom_index_pos (PFI_pos)]
Ƙirƙirar sababbin fasali/kasuwanci.
Tsawon lokacin zanga-zangar a cikin kwanaki yana da sauƙin ƙididdigewa [duration[]], lokacin mulki a cikin shekaru [kwanaki_tun_zaben_1st_], shekarun masu kallo a lokacin da aka fara motsi [shekaru_tun_dob], da kuma kason masu zanga-zangar daga al'ummar kasar [zanga-zanga_rabo].
Mu tafi
Labarin yana ba da wasu ƙididdiga na ƙididdiga. Babu bayanai da yawa, amma akwai da yawa. Marubucin ya nemi fahimtar ku da gafara a gaba.
Hotunan za su gabatar da dalilai uku ne kawai na dalilan zanga-zangar (siyasa, zabe, tattalin arziki) a matsayin mafi ban sha'awa.
Filin akwatin
Filin akwatin, ko "akwatin mai gashin baki," ana iya kwatanta shi da wannan adadi a fili:
Tsawon lokacin zanga-zangar
Abu na farko da marubucin ya yanke shawarar yin nazari shi ne tsawon lokacin zanga-zangar da aka yi.
Dangane da lissafin tarihin, babban tsawon lokacin zanga-zangar yana ɗaukar kwanaki 200. Wani abin sha'awa shi ne tsawon lokacin da zanga-zangar ta yi nasara da rashin nasara, ya danganta da musabbabin faruwar su:
Rarraba rukunan siyasa da zaɓe sun bambanta sosai. Saboda gaskiyar cewa zanga-zangar a Belarus ta haifar da sakamakon zaben, bari mu yi la'akari da wannan tebur da wannan jadawali:
Dangane da bayanan da aka samu, zamu iya yanke shawarar cewa "lokacin zinare" don cin nasara zanga-zangar shine kusan makonni 6-8. Masanin kimiyyar siyasa zai yiwu ya lura cewa ƙarancin tsaka-tsaki na Ƙarya ya kasance saboda gaskiyar cewa wasu daga cikin zanga-zangar an shake su da sauri a cikin ƙuruciyarsu. Idan ba za a iya yin hakan ba, dabarar da ta fi dacewa ita ce jira da jinkirta zanga-zangar. Marubucin ya yi nazari daban-daban cewa babu wanda ya tsara zaɓe a farkon bazara (Yuni, Yuli).
Halin da ake ciki a Belarus a lokacin bugawa (31.08.2020/21/3) - kwanaki XNUMX wato makonni XNUMX sun shude tun farkon zanga-zangar.
Duration a cikin iko
Kamar yadda kuke gani daga akwatin akwatin da ke sama, gwargwadon lokacin da kuke kan mulki, yana da wahala a riƙe shi a sakamakon juyin launin fata. Mu yi dubi da kyau a kan halin da ake ciki a zabukan:
Daga cikin jadawali za ku ga cewa haƙurin mutane kusan sharuɗɗa 2 ne kuma ƙwararrun a zahiri ba sa haɗuwa da juna.
Halin da ake ciki a Belarus yana da mahimmanci a hanyarsa. Ba a taba samun juyin juya halin launin fata ba a kasar da mai mulki ya kwashe shekaru 26 yana kan karagar mulki kuma ya shiga wa'adinsa na 6. A gefe guda, yana da sauƙi ga marubucin don tunanin sakamakon yanke shawara na bishiyar algorithm wanda wannan tambaya ba zai haifar da matsala ba.
Shekarun mai riƙe da wutar lantarki
Wannan jadawali yana nuna yadda rarrabawar ta bambanta (ba abin mamaki ba tare da irin wannan adadin bayanai). Mu kalli jadawalin zaben da kyau:
Kamar yadda yake a cikin misalin da ke sama, kwata-kwata na waɗannan kwandon ba sa haɗuwa. Wannan na iya kasancewa saboda gaskiyar cewa matasa da ƙwaƙƙwaran ’yan siyasa a ƙarƙashin 55 suna da ƙarin ƙarfi don tsayayya da zanga-zangar da ba farar fata ba. Ko kuma da tsawon lokacin da suka karbi mulki da kuma yadda suka yi watsi da shi. Wa ya sani?
Shugaban Belarus na yanzu ya cika shekaru 66 a jiya (ko yau?). A wannan yanayin, lambobin ba su kasance a cikin yardarsa ba.
Fihirisar (a) 'yancin aikin jarida
A cewar mutanen da suka fi marubucin wayo, rashin ‘yancin ‘yan jarida na iya zama alamar kama-karya. Reporters Without Borders ne ke ƙididdige Ma'anar 'Yancin Jarida. Mafi girman ma'auni, mafi muni da halin da ake ciki tare da 'yancin 'yan jarida, bisa ga wannan kungiya.
Bisa ga waɗannan jadawali, kasancewar 'yancin 'yan jarida yana da mummunar tasiri ga ci gaba da iko. Ana iya fahimtar wannan, tun da rawar da jaridu da talabijin suke takawa, kodayake suna raunana, har yanzu suna taka muhimmiyar rawa. Yi la'akari da yanayin zaben:
Kamar yadda a lokuta da suka gabata, kwata-kwata ba su zo ba. Zuwan cibiyoyin sadarwar zamantakewa daban-daban ya canza hoto da tasirin albarkatun kafofin watsa labaru sosai; a wannan batun, da alama yana yiwuwa, amma da wahala, marubucin ya sanya 1986 a cikin Philippines da 2020 a Belarus a daidai.
A cikin Belarus, ma'aunin 'yancin ɗan jarida shine 49.25 don 2020. Wannan shine mafi girman ƙimar iyaka na duk samfuran da aka gabatar a cikin wannan labarin. Kuma a fagagen bayanai ne ake gudanar da manyan fadace-fadacen juyin juya halin yanzu. Wasu ma'aikata a kamfanonin talabijin da rediyo suna yajin aiki. Komsomolskaya Pravda ya rubuta game da zanga-zangar a Belarus, amma ba za a iya buga shi ba saboda lalacewar inji, da dai sauransu. Masu ra'ayin siyasa na Rasha suna tafiya zuwa Belarus bisa gayyatar shugaban, kuma 'yan adawa suna amfani da fasahar zamantakewar yammacin Turai. Kila ma'auni za su yi wa junan su fiye da sau ɗaya.
Rabon masu zanga-zangar
Wataƙila ɗaya daga cikin mafi wuyar sigogi don ƙididdigewa. Da alama a wuraren wasan kwaikwayo na dutse ko wasu taron jama'a, kafofin watsa labarai da hukumomi sun kiyasta adadin mahalarta kusan iri ɗaya ne.
Amma lokacin da bayanai suka bayyana game da zanga-zangar a ƙasashe daban-daban, ana ɗaukan cewa sun kasance a wurare daban-daban. Ko kuma sun duba ta cikin binoculars daga bangarori daban-daban. Wata hanya ko wata, bayanan an ƙididdige su iri ɗaya ga kowa da kowa, don haka yana yiwuwa sun kasance daidai.
Jadawalin sun nuna cewa girman rabon masu zanga-zangar, zai fi wahalar riƙe madafun iko. Wanda ake tsammani. Maimakon haka, lambobin da kansu suna da sha'awa, gami da yanayin da ya shafi zaɓe:
Yin la'akari da ra'ayi na akwatin, nauyin mahimmanci shine 0.5%. Akwai keɓantaccen shari'a ɗaya kawai, wanda aka yi la'akari da shi a waje, inda kusan 1.4% suka rasa burinsu (Armeniya, 2008).
A Belarus, a halin yanzu, bisa ga tsarin ƙididdiga, 1.33% suna shiga cikin zanga-zangar. Wannan adadi kuma bai taka kara ya karya a hannun gwamnati mai ci ba.
Sakamakon tattalin arziki
Abin da zai kasance a ƙasa ba za a iya kiran shi tattalin arziki ba. Marubucin bai samo mafi kyawun ma'auni don kwatantawa ba, yadda za a yi nazarin canjin canjin kuɗin ƙasa bisa ga bankin ƙasa akan dalar Amurka. Don kammala hoton, an dauki tsawon shekara guda daga farkon zanga-zangar da kuma shekara guda bayan karshen. An nuna lokacin zanga-zangar da shuɗi akan jadawali.
Kudin kasar yana kara karfi akan dala
An sami irin wannan yanayin sau da yawa a ƙasashen tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet. Duk abubuwa daidai suke, albashi a cikin rubles na Amurka daga baya ya girma.
Kudin kasar yana da inganci idan aka kwatanta da dala
An kuma lura da kwanciyar hankali na kudaden ƙasa a wasu yanayi masu launi na juyin juya halin ƙasashen tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet. A wannan yanayin, farashin dala bai canza sosai ba.
Kudin kasar ya fadi kan dala
Shekara guda bayan kawo karshen wasu zanga-zangar, mutum na iya ganin wani mummunan yanayi game da kudin kasar. Wataƙila matakai biyu na ƙarshe na rikicin tattalin arzikin 2008 sun ba da gudummawa. Halin da Aljeriya ya kasance kwanan nan - dinari na gida ya kamu da COVID-19.
Halin da ake ciki a Belarus
Halin da ake ciki a Belarus yana da wahala sosai - a farkon lokacin zanga-zangar, kawai a cikin Rasha a cikin 2012, adadin ya ragu sosai da fiye da 10%. To sai dai kuma hakan bai faru ba tun daga kwanakin farko na zanga-zangar da kuma lokacin da aka shiga mataki na 2 na rikicin kudi na duniya. Marubucin ba shi da wani ilimi mai kima na tattalin arziki kuma baya son yaudarar mutane game da musabbabi da sakamakon halin da ake ciki.
Busassun ragowar
Ko da yake bayanan ƙananan ne, yana da daidaito sosai, wanda shine labari mai kyau. Wasu abubuwan lura da alamu suna da sauƙin fassara, yayin da wasu sun ɗan fi wahala.
Halin da ake ciki a Belarus yana canzawa kowace rana, kuma abin da zai faru na gaba ya bayyana ga 'yan kaɗan kawai.
A ƙarshe, zan ba ku jadawali t-SNE na juyin launi. Dukkan kwanakin, sigogi marasa adadi, da sakamakon juyin juya hali an cire su daga saitin bayanai.
Juyin da suka yi nasara suna da alamar kore, waɗanda ba su yi nasara ba cikin ja. Venezuela tana da alamar shuɗi, kuma halin da ake ciki yanzu a Belarus yana cikin launin toka. Baƙar fata alamar matsayi inda Belarus zai kasance a cikin makonni 2, tare da wasu bayanan da aka gyara.
Wannan yana wari kaɗan kamar tari kuma kuna iya ƙoƙarin rarraba shi ta amfani da filayen kofi. A wannan yanayin, idan ka yi alama yanki na ɗigo ja a matsayin 'gungu' na juyin juya hali da ya gaza, za ka ga cewa a cikin yanayin Venezuela ɗigon ya fi ja fiye da kore, wanda ra'ayin duniya na masana kimiyyar siyasa ya tabbatar. . Belarus, wanda aka wakilta ta launin toka (a halin yanzu) da baki (a cikin makonni 2), yana kan hanyar zuwa sansanin 'yan uwanta na kore.
Kuna iya kula da gaskiyar cewa kusa da Belarus akwai gungu na 5 kore dige. Mafi kusa da mu su ne juyin-juya hali na baya-bayan nan Armeniya (2018) и Aljeriya (2019)Kuma Jojiya (2003). A cikin gungu ɗaya, ɗan gaba kaɗan, akwai juyin juya hali Philippines (1986) da kuma cikin Koriya ta Kudu (2016).
Epilogue
Marubucin yayi ƙoƙari da gaske, gwargwadon yiwuwar, gabatar da yanayin tare da juyin juya halin launi a cikin jadawali. Halin da ake ciki a Belarus bai yi la'akari da mulkin mallaka na yanzu ba, kuma lokaci ne kawai zai nuna ko marubucin ya dace a cikin hasashensa.
Idan kuna da ra'ayoyi don sababbin nau'ikan ko batutuwa, rubuta mana kuma za mu bincika su tare.
"Akwai nau'i uku na karya: karya, la'anta karya da kididdiga" (M. Twain)
source: www.habr.com