bulala da wasa
A cikin wannan makala zan so in tattauna matsalar tasirin sa, wanda aka yi nazari sosai a fannin dabaru, sannan kuma in gabatar da hankalin malamai da kwararru a fannin sarrafa kayayyaki da wani sabon gyare-gyare na shahararren wasan giya don koyarwa dabaru. Wasan giya a cikin kimiyyar sarrafa sarkar samar da kayayyaki hakika babban batu ne a cikin ilimin dabaru da aiki. Yana da kyau ya bayyana tsarin da ba a sarrafa shi ba na oda sauye-sauye da kuma kumbura kaya a matakai daban-daban na sarƙoƙi - abin da ake kira tasirin bullwhip. Bayan da na gamu da wahalhalu wajen yin kwatankwacin tasirin bullwhip, na yanke shawarar samar da sauƙaƙan nau'ina na wasan giya (wanda ake magana da shi a matsayin sabon wasan). Sanin ƙwararrun ƙwararrun dabaru a wannan rukunin yanar gizon, da kuma la’akari da cewa sharhi kan labarin Habr ya fi ban sha’awa fiye da kasidun su kansu, ina so in ji tsokaci daga masu karatu game da dacewa da tasirin bullwhip da wasan giya.
Matsala ta gaskiya ko ta gaskiya?
Zan fara da bayyana tasirin bullwhip. Akwai ɗimbin binciken kimiyya a cikin dabaru waɗanda suka yi nazarin tasirin bullwhip a matsayin muhimmin sakamako na hulɗar sarƙoƙi na abokan hulɗa wanda ke da tasirin gudanarwa mai mahimmanci. Tasirin bullwhip shine karuwa a cikin sauye-sauyen tsari a farkon matakan samar da kayayyaki (na sama), wanda shine ɗayan manyan ka'idoji [1] [2] da sakamakon gwaji na wasan giya [3]. Dangane da tasirin bullwhip, sauye-sauyen buƙatu daga masu siye da umarni daga masu siyar da kayayyaki a matakin ƙarshe na sarkar samar da kayayyaki (a ƙasa) koyaushe suna ƙasa da na dillalai da masana'antun. Sakamakon yana, ba shakka, cutarwa ne kuma yana haifar da canje-canje akai-akai a cikin umarni da samarwa. Ta hanyar lissafi, ana iya siffanta tasirin bullwhip a matsayin rabon bambance-bambance ko ƙididdiga na bambance-bambance tsakanin matakan (echelons) na sarkar wadata:
BullwhipEffect=VARupstream/VAR downstream
Ko (dangane da hanyar mai binciken):
BullwhipEffect=CVupstream/CVupstream
Tasirin bullwhip yana cikin kusan duk shahararrun litattafan kasashen waje akan sarrafa kayayyaki. Akwai kawai babban adadin bincike da aka keɓe ga wannan batu. Hanyoyin haɗi a ƙarshen labarin suna nuna ayyukan da suka fi shahara akan wannan tasiri. A ka'ida, tasirin yana faruwa ne ta hanyar ƙarancin bayanai game da buƙata, sayayya da yawa, fargabar ƙarancin gaba da hauhawar farashin [1]. Rashin son abokan hulɗar kasuwanci don raba ingantattun bayanai game da buƙatar abokin ciniki, da kuma tsawon lokacin isarwa, yana ƙara tasirin bullwhip [2]. Hakanan akwai dalilai na tunani don tasirin, wanda aka tabbatar a cikin yanayin dakin gwaje-gwaje [3]. Don dalilai masu ma'ana, akwai wasu ƙayyadaddun misalan ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun tasirin bullwhip-wasu mutane kaɗan ne za su so su raba bayanai game da odarsu da abubuwan ƙirƙira, har ma a cikin dukkan sassan samar da kayayyaki. Akwai, duk da haka, ƴan tsirarun masu bincike waɗanda suka yi imani da cewa an wuce gona da iri.
A ka'ida, ana iya daidaita tasirin ta hanyar maye gurbin kaya da canza abokan ciniki tsakanin masu samar da kayayyaki idan akwai karancin [4]. Wasu shaidun shaida na goyan bayan ra'ayin cewa tasirin bullwhip na iya iyakancewa a cikin masana'antu da yawa [5]. Masu sana'a da dillalai sukan yi amfani da dabarun samar da santsi da sauran dabaru don tabbatar da cewa canjin tsarin abokin ciniki bai wuce iyaka ba. Ina mamaki: menene halin da ake ciki tare da tasirin bullwhip a Rasha da kuma a cikin sararin samaniyar Soviet gaba ɗaya? Shin masu karatu (musamman waɗanda ke da hannu a cikin nazarin ƙididdiga da kuma buƙatun hasashen) sun lura da irin wannan tasiri mai ƙarfi a rayuwa ta ainihi? Watakila, a gaskiya, tambaya game da tasirin bullwhip yana da nisa kuma lokaci mai yawa na masu bincike da daliban dabaru sun ɓata akan shi a banza ...
Ni kaina nayi nazarin tasirin bullwhip a matsayin dalibin digiri na biyu kuma yayin shirya takarda akan wasan giya don taron. Daga baya na shirya sigar lantarki ta wasan giya don nuna tasirin sa a cikin aji. Zan yi bayaninsa dalla-dalla a kasa.
Waɗannan ba kayan wasa bane gare ku...
Ana amfani da ƙirar maɓalli don nazarin matsalolin kasuwanci na ainihi. Fayilolin marufi kuma suna da tasiri wajen horar da manajoji na gaba. Tasirin bullwhip, a matsayin fitaccen fili a cikin sarrafa sarkar samar da kayayyaki, yana da al'ada ta musamman na yin amfani da siminti a cikin ilimi, wanda wasan giya ya zama misali mai kyau. MIT ta fara gabatar da wasan giya na asali a farkon shekarun 1960, kuma ba da daɗewa ba ya zama sanannen kayan aiki don bayyana ƙarfin sarkar samarwa. Wasan misali ne na al'ada na tsarin Dynamics System, wanda aka yi amfani da shi ba kawai don dalilai na ilimi ba, har ma don yanke shawara a cikin yanayin kasuwanci na ainihi, da kuma bincike. Ganuwa, sake fasalin, aminci, ingancin farashi da samun damar yin amfani da wasanni na kwamfuta mai mahimmanci suna ba da madadin horon kan aiki, samar da manajoji kayan aiki mai amfani don sauƙaƙe yanke shawara yayin gudanar da gwaje-gwaje a cikin ingantaccen yanayin koyo.
Wasan ya taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen kwaikwaya don haɓaka dabarun kasuwanci da sauƙaƙe yanke shawara. Wasan giya na gargajiya wasan allo ne kuma yana buƙatar shiri mai mahimmanci kafin kunna wasan a cikin aji. Da farko malamai sun fuskanci batutuwa kamar hadaddun umarni, saituna, da iyakancewa ga mahalarta wasan. Siffofin wasan giya na gaba sun yi ƙoƙarin sauƙaƙe don amfani tare da taimakon fasahar bayanai. Duk da gagarumin ci gaba tare da kowane nau'i na gaba, rikitarwa na saiti da aiwatarwa, musamman a cikin saitunan masu amfani da yawa, a lokuta da yawa sun hana yin amfani da wasan a cikin ilimin kasuwanci. Bita na nau'ikan wasannin kwaikwayo na giya a cikin sarrafa sarkar samar da kayayyaki yana nuna rashin samun sauƙi da kayan aikin kyauta ga malamai a fagen. A cikin sabon wasa mai suna Wasan Gasar Sarkar Kaya, Ina so in magance wannan matsalar da farko. Daga hangen nesa na ilmantarwa, sabon wasan za a iya kwatanta shi azaman kayan aikin ilmantarwa na tushen matsala (PBL) wanda ya haɗu da kwaikwayo tare da wasan kwaikwayo. Hakanan yana yiwuwa a yi amfani da sigar kan layi na sabon wasan a cikin Google Sheets. Hanyar tsara yanayin tsari a cikin tsarin sarkar samar da maƙunsar bayanai tana magance manyan ƙalubale guda biyu a cikin aikace-aikacen manyan wasanni: samun dama da sauƙin amfani. Wannan wasan yana samuwa don saukewa tsawon shekaru biyu yanzu a hanyar haɗin yanar gizon jama'a .
Ana iya sauke cikakken bayanin a cikin Ingilishi .
Takaitaccen bayanin wasan
A taƙaice game da matakan wasan.
Wani mai amfani da ke kula da gudanar da zaman wasan (wanda ake kira malami) da kuma mafi ƙarancin masu amfani huɗu da ke buga wasan (nan gaba ana kiranta da ƴan wasa) tare suna wakiltar mahalarta wasan giya. Sabbin ƙirar wasan sarƙoƙi ɗaya ko biyu, kowanne ya ƙunshi matakai huɗu: Retailer ®, Dillali (W), Mai Rarraba (D) da Factory (F). Sarkar samar da rayuwa ta hakika sun fi rikitarwa, amma wasan sarkar giya na gargajiya yana da kyau don koyo.
Shinkafa 1. Tsarin sarkar kaya
Kowane zaman wasan ya ƙunshi jimlar lokuta 12.
Shinkafa 2. Tsarin yanke shawara ga kowane ɗan wasa
Kwayoyin a cikin nau'ikan suna da tsari na musamman wanda ke sa filayen shigarwa ganuwa ko ganuwa ga 'yan wasa dangane da lokacin aiki na yanzu da jerin yanke shawara, don haka 'yan wasa za su iya mai da hankali kan abin da ya fi mahimmanci a wannan lokacin. Malami na iya sarrafa aikin wasan ta hanyar kula da panel, inda ake bin manyan sigogi da alamun aikin kowane mai kunnawa. Zane-zanen da aka sabunta nan take akan kowace takarda suna taimaka muku cikin sauri fahimtar mahimmin alamun aiki ga ƴan wasa a kowane lokaci. Malamai za su iya zaɓar ko buƙatar abokin ciniki yana da ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun bayanai (ciki har da na layi da marar layi) ko stochastic (ciki har da uniform, al'ada, na yau da kullun, triangular, gamma, da ma'auni).
Ƙarin aiki
Wasan a cikin wannan tsari har yanzu yana da nisa daga cikakke - yana buƙatar ƙarin haɓaka wasan wasan kan layi ta hanyar kawar da buƙatar sabuntawa koyaushe da adana takaddun da suka dace bayan kowane aikin ɗan wasa. Ina so in karanta kuma in ba da amsa ga sharhi kan tambayoyin masu zuwa:
a) ko tasirin bullwhip na gaske ne a aikace;
b) yadda wasan giya zai iya zama da amfani wajen koyar da dabaru da yadda za a inganta shi.
nassoshi
[1] Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V. da Whang, S., 1997. Rushewar bayanai a cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki: Sakamakon bullwhip. Kimiyyar gudanarwa, 43 (4), shafi 546-558.
[2] Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, JK. da Simchi-Levi, D., 2000. Ƙididdige tasirin bullwhip a cikin sarkar samar da sauƙi: Tasirin tsinkaya, lokutan jagora, da bayanai. Kimiyyar gudanarwa, 46 (3), shafi na 436-443.
[3] Sterman, J.D., 1989. Modeling management hali: Rashin fahimtar ra'ayi a cikin wani tsauri yanke shawara yin gwaji. Kimiyyar gudanarwa, 35 (3), shafi 321-339.
[4] Sucky, E., 2009. Sakamakon bullwhip a cikin sarƙoƙi na samar da kayayyaki - matsala mai ƙima? Jarida ta Duniya na Harkokin Tattalin Arziki, 118 (1), pp.311-322.
[5] Cachon, G.P., Randall, T. da Schmidt, G.M., 2007. A cikin neman tasirin bullwhip. Manufacturing & Gudanar da Ayyukan Sabis, 9 (4), pp.457-479.
source: www.habr.com