Shin wajibi ne a sayi mota don 750 dubu rubles, duk da cewa kuna tuƙi sau 18 a wata, ko yana da arha don amfani da taksi? Idan kuna aiki a wurin zama na baya ko sauraron kiɗa - ta yaya wannan ya canza ƙima? Wace hanya ce mafi kyau don siyan ɗaki - a wane lokaci ne ya fi dacewa a gama ajiyar kuɗi a kan ajiya kuma ku biya bashin jinginar gida? Ko ma tambaya maras muhimmanci: shin ya fi riba don saka kuɗi a kashi 6% tare da ƙima na wata-wata ko a 6,2% tare da babban jari na shekara-shekara? Yawancin mutane ba sa ko ƙoƙarin yin irin wannan lissafin kuma ba sa son tattara cikakkun bayanai game da kuɗin su. Maimakon ƙididdiga, ji da motsin rai suna haɗuwa. Ko kuma sun yi ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙididdigewa, misali, ƙididdige kuɗin da ake kashewa na shekara-shekara na mallakar mota dalla-dalla, yayin da duk waɗannan kuɗaɗen na iya zama kawai kashi 5% na jimlar kuɗin da aka kashe (kuma ba a ƙididdige kashe kuɗi akan sauran abubuwan rayuwa). Ƙwaƙwalwar ɗan adam tana fuskantar ruɗuwar fahimta. Alal misali, yana da wuya a daina, duk da rashin biya, kasuwancin da aka kashe lokaci mai yawa da kuɗi. Mutane yawanci suna da kyakkyawan fata kuma suna yin la'akari da haɗarin, da kuma sauƙi mai sauƙi kuma suna iya siyan kayan kwalliya mai tsada ko saka hannun jari a cikin dala na kuɗi.
Tabbas, a cikin yanayin banki, kimantawa na motsin rai ba ya aiki. Don haka, ina so in fara magana game da yadda talaka ke tantance kuɗi (ciki har da ni), da yadda banki yake yin su. A ƙasa za a sami wasu shirye-shiryen ilimi na kuɗi da yawa game da ƙididdigar bayanai a cikin Sberbank ga dukan bankin gaba ɗaya.
An ba da shawarar da aka samu kawai a matsayin misali kuma ba za a iya la'akari da shawarwari ga masu zuba jari masu zaman kansu ba, tun da ba su la'akari da abubuwa da yawa da suka rage a cikin iyakokin wannan labarin.
Misali, duk wani abin da ya faru na “black swan” a fannin tattalin arziki, a harkokin gudanar da harkokin kasuwanci na kowane kamfani, da dai sauransu, na iya haifar da gagarumin sauyi.
A ce kun riga kun biya jinginar ku kuma kuna da tanadi. Wannan labarin na iya zama da amfani gare ku idan kuna:
- ba komai yawan dukiyar da kuka tara da yadda za ku kiyaye ta
- mamakin yadda ake yin kayanku ya kawo muku ƙarin kudin shiga
- Ina so in fahimci wanne daga cikin hanyoyin da za a saka jari shine mafi kyau: dukiya, adibas ko hannun jari
- m abin da bincike na Sberbank bayanai zai ba da shawara a kan wannan batu
Sau da yawa mutane suna yin yanke shawara na kudi ba tare da cikakken bayani game da halin da ake ciki na kudaden shiga da kuma kudaden da suke kashewa ba, ba tare da kimanta darajar dukiyar su ba, ba tare da la'akari da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba, da dai sauransu a cikin lissafin su.
Wani lokaci mutane suna yin kuskure, kamar karɓar lamuni suna tunanin za su iya biya sannan su gaza. A lokaci guda, amsar tambayar ko mutum zai iya yin hidimar lamuni sau da yawa ana saninsa a gaba. Kawai kuna buƙatar sanin nawa kuke samu, nawa kuke kashewa, menene tasirin canje-canje a cikin waɗannan alamomin.
Ko kuma, alal misali, mutum yana karɓar wani nau'i na albashi a wurin aiki, ana ƙara shi lokaci-lokaci, yana gabatar da shi a matsayin kimantawa na cancanta. Amma a gaskiya, idan aka kwatanta da hauhawar farashin kaya, wannan mutumin yana iya faɗuwa, kuma bazai gane hakan ba idan bai ajiye bayanan kuɗin shiga ba.
Wasu mutane ba za su iya tantance wane zaɓi ya fi riba a halin da suke ciki ba: hayar gida ko ɗaukar jinginar gida a irin wannan ƙimar.
Kuma maimakon ƙididdige abin da farashin zai kasance a cikin wannan da kuma wannan yanayin, ko ta yaya yin monetizing da ba na kudi Manuniya a cikin lissafin ("Na kiyasta fa'idar daga Moscow rajista a M rubles wata daya, na kiyasta saukaka rayuwa a cikin wani Apartment haya a kusa. aiki a N rubles kowane wata”), mutane suna gudu zuwa Intanet don tattaunawa tare da masu shiga tsakani waɗanda za su iya samun yanayin kuɗi daban-daban da sauran abubuwan da suka fi dacewa wajen tantance alamomin da ba na kuɗi ba.
Ni mai alhakin tsara kudi ne. Da farko, ana ba da shawarar tattara waɗannan bayanai kan halin ku na kuɗi:
- lissafin kudi da kima na duk samuwa dukiya
- lissafin kudin shiga da kashe kudi, da kuma bambanci tsakanin kudin shiga da kashe kudi, watau. kuzarin tara dukiya
Ƙididdiga da ƙima na dukiyoyin da ake da su
Da farko, ga hoton da wataƙila ya yi kuskuren fassara yanayin kuɗi na mutane. Hoton yana nuna nau'ikan kuɗi kawai na kadarorin da mutanen da aka kwatanta suke da su. A hakikanin gaskiya, masu yin sadaka mai yiwuwa suna da wasu kadarori banda lamuni, wanda hakan ya sa ma’aunin kudadensu ba su da kyau, amma duk da haka darajar dukiyarsu ta fi ta marowaci.
Yi la'akari da abin da kuke da shi:
- dukiya
- ƙasa
- ababen hawa
- ajiyar banki
- wajibcin bashi (tare da ragi)
- zuba jari (hannun jari, shaidu,…)
- farashin kasuwancin kansa
- sauran dukiya
Daga cikin dukiya, wanda zai iya lura da rabon ruwa, wanda za'a iya cirewa da sauri kuma a canza shi zuwa wasu nau'i. Misali, rabon da kuka mallaka tare da dangi da ke zaune a cikinsa ana iya rarraba shi a matsayin dukiya mara kyau. Saka hannun jari na dogon lokaci a cikin adibas ko hannun jarin da ba za a iya cirewa ba tare da asara ba kuma ana iya la'akari da shi mara gaskiya. Hakanan, kadarorin da ka mallaka amma ba ka rayuwa a ciki, ababen hawa, na ɗan gajeren lokaci da ma'ajiyar da za a iya sokewa za a iya rarraba su azaman mallakar ruwa. Misali, idan kuna buƙatar kuɗi don magani na gaggawa, to fa'idodin wasu kayan aikin kusan sifili ne, don haka rabon ruwa ya fi daraja.
Bugu da ari, daga cikin kadarorin za a iya bambanta rashin riba da riba. Misali, kadarorin da ba a haya ba, da kuma ababen hawa, ana iya daukar su a matsayin mara amfani. Kuma gidaje da aka yi hayar, adibas da hannun jarin da aka saka akan farashi sama da hauhawa dukiya ce mai riba.
Za ku sami, alal misali, irin wannan hoton (bayanan an ƙirƙira su ba da gangan ba):
Ga mutane da yawa, wannan hoton ya yi kama sosai. Alal misali, kaka matalauta na iya zama a cikin wani gida mai tsada a Moscow wanda ba ya kawo riba, yayin da yake zaune tare da baki daga fensho zuwa fensho, ba tare da tunanin sake fasalin kayanta ba. Zai yi kyau ta yi musayar gidaje da jikanta a kan kuɗi. Akasin haka, mai saka hannun jari zai iya shiga cikin saka hannun jari a hannun jari ta yadda ba shi da wasu nau'ikan kadarori don ranar damina, wanda zai iya zama haɗari. Kuna iya zana irin wannan hoton kayan ku kuma kuyi mamaki idan ba hikima ba ne don canza kayan a hanya mafi riba.
Lissafin kuɗi don samun kudin shiga, kashe kuɗi da haɓakar tarin dukiya
Ana ba da shawarar cewa ku yi rikodin kuɗin shiga da kuɗin ku akai-akai ta hanyar lantarki. A zamanin da ake amfani da yanar gizo na banki, ba ya ɗaukar ƙoƙari sosai. A lokaci guda, ana iya raba kudaden shiga da kashe kuɗi zuwa rukuni. Bugu da ari, idan aka tara su da shekaru, mutum zai iya yanke hukunci game da yanayin su. Yana da mahimmanci a yi la'akari da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki don samun ra'ayi game da yadda adadin kuɗi na shekarun da suka gabata yayi kama da farashin yau. Kowa yana da nasa kwandon mabukaci. Man fetur da abinci sun tashi a farashi a farashi daban-daban. Amma ƙididdige hauhawar farashin ku na sirri yana da wahala sosai. Saboda haka, tare da wasu kurakurai, yana yiwuwa a yi amfani da bayanai akan ƙimar hauhawar farashin kaya.
Ana samun bayanan hauhawar farashin kaya na wata-wata daga buɗaɗɗen tushe da yawa, gami da waɗanda aka ɗora zuwa tafkin bayanan Sberbank.
Misali na iya hango abubuwan da ake kashewa na kudaden shiga (bayanan an samar da su ba da gangan ba, yanayin hauhawar farashin kaya na gaske):
Samun irin wannan cikakken hoto, zaku iya yanke shawara game da haɓakar ku na gaske / raguwar kuɗin shiga da haɓakar haɓakawa na gaske / raguwa a cikin tanadi, bincika yanayin kashe kuɗi ta rukuni kuma ku yanke shawarar yanke shawara na kuɗi.
Wace hanya ce ta saka hannun jarin tsabar kuɗi kyauta ta doke hauhawar farashin kaya kuma ta kawo mafi yawan kudin shiga?
Tafkin bayanan Sberbank yana da mahimman bayanai akan wannan batu:
- kuzarin kawo cikas na farashin da murabba'in mita a Moscow
- bayanai na shawarwari don siyarwa da hayar gidaje a cikin yankunan Moscow da Moscow
- sauye-sauye na matsakaicin adadin riba na shekara-shekara akan adibas
- ruble hauhawar farashin kayayyaki
- Ƙarfafawar Mosko Babban Jimillar Koma Fihirisar (MCFTR)
- Moscow musayar ƙididdiga da bayanai kan rabon da aka biya
Wannan bayanan za su ba mu damar kwatanta dawowa da kasadar saka hannun jari a cikin kadarorin haya, ajiyar banki da kasuwar daidaito. Kar mu manta da sanya hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Dole ne in faɗi nan da nan cewa a cikin wannan post ɗin mun tsunduma cikin bincike na bayanai kawai kuma ba mu amfani da duk wani ra'ayi na tattalin arziki. Bari mu ga abin da bayananmu ke faɗi - wace hanya don adanawa da haɓaka tanadi a Rasha ya haifar da sakamako mafi kyau a cikin 'yan shekarun nan.
Za mu ɗan yi bayanin yadda ake tattara bayanan da aka yi amfani da su a cikin wannan labarin da sauran bayanan da ke cikin Sberbank. Akwai nau'in kwafi na tushen da aka adana a tsarin parquet akan hadoop. Dukansu tushen ciki (daban-daban AS na banki) da kuma waje kafofin ana amfani. Ana tattara kwafin tushe ta hanyoyi daban-daban. Akwai samfurin stork bisa walƙiya, kuma samfur na biyu, Ab Initio AIR, yana samun ƙarfi. Ana loda kwafin tushe zuwa gungu na hadoop masu sarrafa Cloudera daban-daban, kuma ana iya haɗa su daga wannan gungu zuwa wani. An raba gungu musamman ta hanyar tubalan kasuwanci, akwai kuma tarin bayanai na Lab. Dangane da kwafi na tushe, ana gina taswirar bayanai iri-iri waɗanda ke samuwa ga masu amfani da kasuwanci da masana kimiyyar bayanai. An yi amfani da aikace-aikacen walƙiya iri-iri, tambayoyin hive, aikace-aikacen nazarin bayanai, da hangen nesa na sakamako a cikin tsarin zane na SVG don rubuta wannan labarin.
Binciken tarihi na kasuwar gidaje
Binciken ya nuna cewa dukiya a cikin dogon lokaci yana girma daidai da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, watau. a hakikanin farashin ba ya karuwa ko raguwa. Anan akwai jadawali na yanayin farashin kayan gida na zama a Moscow, yana nuna bayanan farko da ake samu.
Jadawalin farashin a cikin rubles ban da hauhawar farashin kaya:
Taswirar farashin a cikin rubles, la'akari da hauhawar farashin kaya (a cikin farashin zamani):
Mun ga cewa a tarihi farashin ya canza a kusa da 200 rubles/sq.m. a cikin farashin zamani kuma rashin daidaituwa ya yi ƙasa sosai.
Wane kashi nawa a kowace shekara sama da hauhawar farashin kaya ake kawowa ta hanyar saka hannun jari a cikin gidaje na zama? Ta yaya yawan amfanin ƙasa ya dogara da adadin ɗakuna a cikin ɗakin? Bari mu bincika bayanan Sberbank na tallace-tallace don siyarwa da hayar gidaje a cikin Moscow da kewayen Moscow.
A cikin bayananmu, akwai ƴan gine-ginen gidaje waɗanda a cikinsu akwai tallace-tallacen tallace-tallacen gidaje da tallace-tallace na hayar gidaje a lokaci guda, kuma adadin dakunan da ke cikin gidajen na siyarwa da na haya iri ɗaya ne. Mun kwatanta irin waɗannan lokuta, haɗa su ta gidaje da adadin ɗakunan da ke cikin ɗakin. Idan akwai tayi da yawa a cikin irin wannan rukuni, an ƙididdige matsakaicin farashin. Idan yankin da aka sayar da kuma hayar Apartment ya bambanta, sa'an nan farashin tayin ya canza daidai gwargwado domin yankunan da aka kwatanta. A sakamakon haka, an sanya shawarwari a kan jadawalin. Kowane da'irar a haƙiƙa wani gida ne wanda aka bayar don siye da haya a lokaci guda. A kan axis a kwance muna ganin farashin samun ɗakin gida, kuma a kan axis na tsaye - farashin hayar gida ɗaya. Adadin dakuna a cikin ɗakin ya fito fili daga launi na da'irar, kuma girman yankin ɗakin, mafi girma radius na da'irar. Yin la'akari da tayin masu tsada, jadawalin ya kasance kamar haka:
Idan kun cire tayin masu tsada, zaku iya ganin farashin a cikin ɓangaren tattalin arziki daki-daki:
Binciken daidaitawa ya nuna cewa alaƙar da ke tsakanin kuɗin hayar ɗaki da farashin siyan shi yana kusa da layi.
Ya fito da rabo mai zuwa tsakanin farashin hayar gida na shekara-shekara da farashin samun ɗaki (kar mu manta cewa farashin shekara shine 12 kowane wata):
Yawan dakuna:
Matsakaicin farashin hayar gida na shekara-shekara da farashin siyan gida:
1-daki
5,11%
2-daki
4,80%
3-daki
4,94%
kawai
4,93%
Ya sami matsakaicin ƙima na 4,93% a kowace shekara daga hayan ɗakin gida fiye da hauhawar farashin kaya. Har ila yau, yana da ban sha'awa cewa gidaje masu daki 1 masu arha sun fi samun riba don haya. Mun kwatanta farashin tayin, wanda a cikin duka biyun (haya da siya) an ɗan yi sama da ƙasa kaɗan, don haka ba a buƙatar daidaitawa. Duk da haka, ana buƙatar wasu gyare-gyare: gidaje masu haya wani lokaci suna buƙatar gyara aƙalla na kwaskwarima, yana ɗaukar ɗan lokaci don nemo mai haya kuma ɗakunan ba su da komai, wani lokacin biyan kuɗi na kayan aiki ba a haɗa su cikin farashin haya a wani ɓangare ko gabaɗaya, kuma a can. shi ma wani musamman ɗan rage darajar Apartments a tsawon shekaru.
Yin la'akari da gyare-gyare, daga yin hayar gidaje na zama, za ku iya samun kudin shiga har zuwa 4,5% a kowace shekara (bayan gaskiyar cewa dukiyar kanta ba ta raguwa). Idan irin wannan yawan amfanin ƙasa yana da ban sha'awa, Sberbank yana da tayi da yawa akan DomClick.
Binciken tarihi na kudaden ajiya
Adadin Ruble a Rasha a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata sun fi hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Amma ba ta 4,5% ba, kamar gidaje na haya, amma, a matsakaici, ta 2%.
A cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, muna ganin haɓakar kwatankwacin ƙimar ajiya da hauhawar farashi.
Zan lura da irin wannan lokacin cewa samun kudin shiga daga adibas ya doke hauhawar farashin kaya da ɗan ƙarfi fiye da ginshiƙi na sama saboda dalilai masu zuwa:
- Kuna iya daidaita ƙimar akan adibas ɗin da aka cika a lokaci mai kyau na watanni da yawa gaba
- Babban jari na wata-wata, halayyar gudummawar da yawa da aka haɗa cikin waɗannan matsakaitan bayanai, suna ƙara riba saboda ƙaƙƙarfan riba
- A sama an yi la'akari da farashin manyan bankunan 10 bisa ga bayanai daga Bankin Rasha, a waje da manyan 10 za ku iya samun farashin dan kadan mafi girma.
Amma game da ajiya a cikin dala da Yuro, zan ce sun doke hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a daloli da Yuro, bi da bi, mai rauni fiye da ruble ya doke hauhawar farashin ruble.
Binciken tarihi na kasuwar jari
Yanzu bari mu dubi mafi bambancin da m kasuwa ga Rasha hannun jari. Komawa kan saka hannun jari a hannun jari ba a daidaita shi ba kuma yana iya bambanta sosai. Koyaya, idan kun karkatar da kadarori da saka hannun jari na dogon lokaci, zaku iya gano matsakaicin adadin riba na shekara wanda ke nuna nasarar saka hannun jari a cikin babban fayil ɗin hannun jari.
Ga masu karatu waɗanda suka yi nisa da batun, zan faɗi 'yan kalmomi game da fihirisar hannun jari. A cikin Rasha, akwai alamar musayar Mosko, wanda ke nuna ƙarfin darajar ruble na fayil ɗin da ya ƙunshi 50 mafi girma na hannun jari na Rasha. Abubuwan da ke cikin index da rabon hannun jari na kowane kamfani ya dogara da girman ayyukan ciniki, girman kasuwancin, adadin hannun jari a wurare dabam dabam. Jadawalin da ke ƙasa yana nuna yadda index Exchange na Moscow (watau irin wannan matsakaicin matsayi) ya girma a cikin 'yan shekarun nan.
Ma'abuta mafi yawan hannun jari suna biyan kuɗi lokaci-lokaci wanda za'a iya sake saka hannun jari a hannun jari iri ɗaya waɗanda ke samar da kudin shiga. Ana biyan haraji akan rabon da aka samu. Ƙididdigar musayar Mosco ba ta la'akari da yawan rabon rabon.
Saboda haka, za mu fi sha'awar Moscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR), wanda yayi la'akari da rabon da aka samu da kuma harajin da aka cire daga waɗannan rabe-raben. Bari mu nuna akan ginshiƙi na ƙasa yadda wannan fihirisar ta canza a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Bugu da ƙari, muna la'akari da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kuma mu ga yadda wannan index ya girma a farashin zamani:
Hoton kore shine ainihin ƙimar fayil ɗin a cikin farashin zamani, idan kun saka hannun jari a cikin index Exchange na Moscow, sake saka hannun jari a kai a kai kuma ku biya haraji.
Bari mu ga menene haɓakar ƙimar MCFTR a cikin shekaru 1,2,3,…,11 da suka gabata. Wadancan. Menene dawowarmu zai kasance idan muka sayi hannun jari daidai da wannan fihirisar kuma muka sake saka hannun jari a kai a kai a cikin hannun jari iri ɗaya:
Shekaru
Начало
Ƙarshen
Farashin MCFTR
da wuri Tare da
la'akari
kara.
Farashin MCFTR
con. Tare da
la'akari
kara.
Kofi.
girma
Shekara-shekara
coefficient
girma
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2020
3835,52
5095,54
1,328513
1,152612
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2020
3113,38
5095,54
1,636659
1,178472
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2020
3115,30
5095,54
1,635650
1,130896
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2020
2682,35
5095,54
1,899655
1,136933
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2020
2488,07
5095,54
2,047989
1,126907
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2020
2497,47
5095,54
2,040281
1,107239
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2020
2634,99
5095,54
1,933799
1,085929
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2020
3245,76
5095,54
1,569907
1,051390
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
2847,81
5095,54
1,789284
1,059907
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2020
2223,17
5095,54
2,292015
1,078318
Mun ga cewa, bayan saka hannun jari a kowane adadin shekaru da suka gabata, da mun sami nasara kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na 5-18% a kowace shekara, dangane da nasarar da aka samu.
Bari mu ƙara tebur guda ɗaya - ba riba ga kowace shekara N ta ƙarshe ba, amma riba ga kowane lokacin N na shekara ɗaya na ƙarshe:
Shekara
Начало
Ƙarshen
Farashin MCFTR
da wuri Tare da
la'akari
kara.
Farashin MCFTR
con. Tare da
la'akari
kara.
Shekara-shekara
coefficient
girma
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2019
3835,52
4697,47
1,224728
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2018
3113,38
3835,52
1,231947
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2017
3115,30
3113,38
0,999384
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2016
2682,35
3115,30
1,161407
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2015
2488,07
2682,35
1,078085
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2014
2497,47
2488,07
0,996236
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2013
2634,99
2497,47
0,947810
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2012
3245,76
2634,99
0,811825
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2011
2847,81
3245,76
1,139739
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2010
2223,17
2847,81
1,280968
Mun ga cewa ba kowane ɗayan shekarun ya yi nasara ba, amma shekarun da ba su yi nasara ba sun biyo bayan shekaru masu nasara, wanda ya "gyara komai".
Yanzu, don ƙarin fahimta, bari mu taƙaita daga wannan maƙasudin kuma mu dubi misalin wani takamaiman haja, menene sakamakon idan kun saka hannun jari a cikin wannan haja shekaru 15 da suka gabata, sake saka hannun jari da biyan haraji. Mu ga sakamakon la'akari da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, watau. a farashin yanzu. Da ke ƙasa akwai misalin rabon talakawa na Sberbank. Hoton koren yana nuna ƙimar ƙimar fayil ɗin, wanda da farko ya ƙunshi kashi ɗaya na Sberbank a farashin yanzu, la'akari da sake saka hannun jari na rara. Domin shekaru 15, hauhawar farashin kaya ya ragu da ruble da sau 3.014135. Adadin Sberbank a cikin shekaru ya tashi a farashin daga 21.861 rubles. har zuwa 218.15 rubles, i.e. farashin ya karu da sau 9.978958 ban da hauhawar farashin kaya. A cikin waɗannan shekarun, an biya mai mallakar kashi ɗaya a lokuta daban-daban, rabon haraji, a cikin adadin 40.811613 rubles. Adadin rabon da aka biya ana nuna su a kan ginshiƙi a matsayin jajayen sanduna a tsaye kuma ba a koma ga ginshiƙi da kanta ba, wanda kuma ana la'akari da rabon kuɗin da sake dawo da su. Idan duk lokacin da aka yi amfani da waɗannan ƙididdiga don sake siyan hannun jari na Sberbank, to, a ƙarshen lokacin mai hannun jari ya riga ya mallaki ba ɗaya ba, amma 1.309361 hannun jari. Yin la'akari da sake zuba jarurruka na rabe-rabe da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, asalin fayil ɗin ya tashi a farashi ta hanyar 4.334927 sau a cikin shekaru 15, i.е. ya tashi ta 1.102721 sau a shekara. A cikin duka, babban rabo na Sberbank ya kawo matsakaicin 10,27% a kowace shekara sama da hauhawar farashin kaya kowace shekara 15 da suka gabata:
Kamar yadda wani misali, bari mu dauki irin wannan hoto tare da kuzarin kawo cikas na fĩfĩta hannun jari na Sberbank. Babban rabon da aka fi so na Sberbank ya kawo mai shi har ma a matsakaici, 13,59% a kowace shekara akan hauhawar farashin kaya kowane cikin shekaru 15 da suka gabata:
Waɗannan sakamakon za su kasance kaɗan kaɗan a aikace, saboda lokacin siyan hannun jari kuna buƙatar biyan ƙaramin kwamiti na dillali. A lokaci guda kuma, sakamakon zai iya ƙara inganta idan kun yi amfani da Asusun Zuba Jari na Mutum, wanda ke ba ku damar karɓar harajin haraji daga jihar a cikin wani adadi mai iyaka. Idan baku ji wannan ba, ana ba da shawarar ku nemo gajeriyar “IIS”. Kada mu manta da cewa IIS za a iya bude a Sberbank.
Don haka, mun riga mun karɓi cewa tarihi ya fi riba don saka hannun jari a hannun jari fiye da ƙasa da adibas. Don jin daɗi, a nan akwai faretin faretin manyan hannun jari 20 waɗanda ke yin ciniki a kasuwa sama da shekaru 10, waɗanda aka samu sakamakon binciken bayanai. A cikin ginshiƙi na ƙarshe, mun ga sau nawa hannun jari na hannun jari ya karu akan matsakaita kowace shekara, la’akari da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma sake saka hannun jari. Mun ga cewa hannun jari da yawa sun doke hauhawar farashin kaya da fiye da 10%:
Specials
Начало
Ƙarshen
Kofi. hauhawar farashin kaya
Farko farashin
Con. farashin
Hawan
lambobi
hannun jari
a kudi
sabunta-
tashoshi
raba-
dendov,
sau
karshe
matsakaici
shekara-shekara
girma, sau
Lenzoloto
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1267,02
17290
2,307198
1,326066
NKNKH ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
5,99
79,18
2,319298
1,322544
Saukewa: MGTS-4
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
339,99
1980
3,188323
1,257858
Tafe 3ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
72,77
538,8
2,037894
1,232030
MGTS-5 ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
380,7
2275
2,487047
1,230166
Akron
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
809,88
5800
2,015074
1,226550
Lenzol. sama
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
845
5260
2,214068
1,220921
NKNKh JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
14,117
92,45
1,896548
1,208282
Lenenerg-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
25,253
149,5
1,904568
1,196652
GMKNorNik
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
4970
19620
2,134809
1,162320
Surgnfgz-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
13,799
37,49
2,480427
1,136619
IRKUT-3
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
8,127
35,08
1,543182
1,135299
Tafe 3 ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
146,94
558,4
1,612350
1,125854
Novatek JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
218,5
1080,8
1,195976
1,121908
SevSt-AO
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
358
908,4
2,163834
1,113569
Krasb ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
3,25
7,07
2,255269
1,101105
Farashin CHTPZ JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
55,7
209,5
1,304175
1,101088
Sberbank-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
56,85
203,33
1,368277
1,100829
Farashin JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
108,26
489,5
1,079537
1,100545
LUKOIL
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1720
5115
1,639864
1,100444
Yanzu, da zazzage bayanan, za mu warware matsaloli da yawa kan batun abin da ya dace da saka hannun jari a ciki, idan muka yi imani cewa abubuwan da ke faruwa na dogon lokaci a cikin ƙimar wasu hannun jari za su ci gaba. A bayyane yake cewa ba cikakke ba ne don hasashen farashin nan gaba bisa ga ginshiƙi na baya, amma za mu nemi masu cin nasara a cikin saka hannun jari na lokutan da suka gabata a cikin nau'ikan da yawa.
Aiki. Nemo hannun jari wanda akai-akai ya zarce kadarori (CAGR 1.045 akan hauhawar farashin kaya) matsakaicin adadin lokuta a cikin kowane shekaru 10 na ƙarshe na shekara guda da hannun jarin ya yi ciniki.
A cikin wannan da ayyuka masu zuwa, muna nufin samfurin da ke sama tare da sake zuba jari na rabe-rabe da lissafin farashi.
Ga wadanda suka yi nasara a wannan rukunin bisa ga binciken mu. Hannun jarin da ke saman teburin suna yin aiki da kyau kowace shekara ba tare da tsomawa ba. Anan Shekara ta 1 ita ce 30.07.2019/30.07.2020/2-30.07.2018/30.07.2019/XNUMX, Shekara ta XNUMX ita ce XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX-XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX, da sauransu:
Specials
lambar
cin nasara
kan
dukiya
danna-
stu
don
bayan-
kwanaki
10 shekaru
Shekara ta 1
Shekara ta 2
Shekara ta 3
Shekara ta 4
Shekara ta 5
Shekara ta 6
Shekara ta 7
Shekara ta 8
Shekara ta 9
Shekara ta 10
Tafe 3ap
8
0,8573
1,4934
1,9461
1,6092
1,0470
1,1035
1,2909
1,0705
1,0039
1,2540
Saukewa: MGTS-4
8
1,1020
1,0608
1,8637
1,5106
1,7244
0,9339
1,1632
0,9216
1,0655
1,6380
Farashin CHTPZ JSC
7
1,5532
1,2003
1,2495
1,5011
1,5453
1,2926
0,9477
0,9399
0,3081
1,3666
SevSt-AO
7
0,9532
1,1056
1,3463
1,1089
1,1955
2,0003
1,2501
0,6734
0,6637
1,3948
NKNKh JSC
7
1,3285
1,5916
1,0821
0,8403
1,7407
1,3632
0,8729
0,8678
1,0716
1,7910
MGTS-5 ao
7
1,1969
1,0688
1,8572
1,3789
2,0274
0,8394
1,1685
0,8364
1,0073
1,4460
Gazpromneft
7
0,8119
1,3200
1,6868
1,2051
1,1751
0,9197
1,1126
0,7484
1,1131
1,0641
Tafe 3 ao
7
0,7933
1,0807
1,9714
1,2109
1,0728
1,1725
1,0192
0,9815
1,0783
1,1785
Lenenerg-p
7
1,3941
1,1865
1,7697
2,4403
2,2441
0,6250
1,2045
0,7784
0,4562
1,4051
NKNKH ap
7
1,3057
2,4022
1,2896
0,8209
1,2356
1,6278
0,7508
0,8449
1,5820
2,4428
Surgnfgz-p
7
1,1897
1,0456
1,2413
0,8395
0,9643
1,4957
1,2140
1,1280
1,4013
1,0031
Mun ga cewa hatta shugabanni ba sa samun dukiya ta fuskar samun riba duk shekara. Ƙarfafawa mai ƙarfi a cikin matakin riba a cikin shekaru daban-daban yana nuna cewa idan kuna son kwanciyar hankali, yana da kyau a rarraba dukiya, kuma a daidai, zuba jari a cikin index.
Yanzu muna tsarawa da magance irin wannan matsala don nazarin bayanai. Shin yana da daraja a yi hasashe kaɗan, duk lokacin da siyan hannun jari M kwanaki kafin ranar biyan kuɗi da siyar da hannun jari N kwanaki bayan ranar biyan kuɗi? Shin yana da kyau a girbi rabe-rabe kuma "fita daga hannun jari" fiye da "zauna cikin hannun jari" duk shekara? Mu dauka cewa babu wata asara da hukumar ta samu daga irin wannan kofar shiga. Kuma nazarin bayanai zai taimaka mana nemo iyakokin M da N corridor, wanda a tarihi ya fi samun nasara wajen girbi riba maimakon rike hannun jari na dogon lokaci.
Ga wani labari daga 2008.
John Smith, wanda ya yi tsalle daga tagar bene na 75 a kan Wall Street, bayan ya bugi kasa, ya yi tsallen mitoci 10, wanda ya dan samu nasarar fadowar safiya.
Don haka yana da rabo: muna ɗauka cewa a cikin motsi na kasuwa a kusa da kwanan watan biyan kuɗi, an nuna alamar kasuwa da yawa, watau. saboda dalilai na tunani, kasuwa na iya faɗuwa ko tashi sama da adadin rabon da ake buƙata.
Aiki. Yi kiyasin adadin dawo da hannun jari bayan an biya rabon. Shin yana da kyau a shiga a jajibirin biyan kuɗi kuma ku fita wani lokaci daga baya fiye da mallakar haja a duk shekara? Kwanaki nawa ne kafin a biya rabon rabon in shiga hannun jari kuma kwanaki nawa bayan an biya rabon zan fita daga hannun jari domin samun riba mai yawa?
Samfurin mu ya ƙididdige duk bambance-bambance a cikin faɗin unguwar kusa da kwanakin rabon rabon a cikin tarihi. An karɓi hane-hane masu zuwa: M<=30, N>=20. Gaskiyar ita ce, kwanan wata da adadin kuɗin da aka biya ba koyaushe ake sanin su ba kafin kwanaki 30 kafin biyan kuɗin ribar. Har ila yau, rabon kuɗi ba ya zuwa asusun nan da nan, amma tare da jinkiri. Mun yi imanin cewa yana ɗaukar aƙalla kwanaki 20 kafin a ba da garantin karɓar riba a asusun da sake saka hannun jari. Tare da waɗannan ƙuntatawa, ƙirar ta samar da amsa mai zuwa. Mafi kyawun lokacin siyan hannun jari shine kwanaki 34 kafin ranar biyan kuɗin rabon kuma ku sayar da su kwanaki 25 bayan ranar biyan kuɗi. A karkashin wannan yanayin, an samu matsakaicin girma na 3,11% a cikin wannan lokacin, wanda ke ba da 20,9% a kowace shekara. Wadancan. tare da tsarin saka hannun jari da aka yi la'akari (tare da sake saka hannun jari na riba da la'akari da hauhawar farashin kaya), idan kun sayi hannun jari kwanaki 34 kafin ranar biyan kuɗi kuma ku sayar da shi kwanaki 25 bayan ranar biyan kuɗi, to muna da 20,9% a kowace shekara sama da hauhawar farashin kaya. ƙimar. Ana tabbatar da wannan ta hanyar matsakaicin duk lokuta na biyan kuɗi daga bayanan mu.
Alal misali, don rabon da aka fi so na Sberbank, irin wannan yanayin fita-shigarwa zai ba da 11,72% girma sama da farashin farashi don kowane shigarwa-fita a kusa da ranar biyan kuɗi. Wannan ya kai kashi 98,6% a kowace shekara sama da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Amma wannan, ba shakka, misali ne na sa'a bazuwar.
Specials
shigarwa
Kwanan rabo
Fita
Kofi. girma
Sberbank-p
10.05.2019
13.06.2019
08.07.2019
1,112942978
Sberbank-p
23.05.2018
26.06.2018
21.07.2018
0,936437635
Sberbank-p
11.05.2017
14.06.2017
09.07.2017
1,017492563
Sberbank-p
11.05.2016
14.06.2016
09.07.2016
1,101864592
Sberbank-p
12.05.2015
15.06.2015
10.07.2015
0,995812419
Sberbank-p
14.05.2014
17.06.2014
12.07.2014
1,042997818
Sberbank-p
08.03.2013
11.04.2013
06.05.2013
0,997301095
Sberbank-p
09.03.2012
12.04.2012
07.05.2012
0,924053861
Sberbank-p
12.03.2011
15.04.2011
10.05.2011
1,010644958
Sberbank-p
13.03.2010
16.04.2010
11.05.2010
0,796937418
Sberbank-p
04.04.2009
08.05.2009
02.06.2009
2,893620094
Sberbank-p
04.04.2008
08.05.2008
02.06.2008
1,073578067
Sberbank-p
08.04.2007
12.05.2007
06.06.2007
0,877649005
Sberbank-p
25.03.2006
28.04.2006
23.05.2006
0,958642001
Sberbank-p
03.04.2005
07.05.2005
01.06.2005
1,059276282
Sberbank-p
28.03.2004
01.05.2004
26.05.2004
1,049810801
Sberbank-p
06.04.2003
10.05.2003
04.06.2003
1,161792898
Sberbank-p
02.04.2002
06.05.2002
31.05.2002
1,099316569
Don haka, tunanin kasuwa da aka kwatanta a sama yana faruwa, kuma a cikin ɗimbin adadin kwanakin biyan kuɗi, yawan amfanin gona a tarihi ya ɗan yi girma fiye da na hannun jari na tsawon shekara.
Bari mu saita samfurin mu ƙarin ɗawainiya ɗaya don nazarin bayanai:
Aiki. Nemo haja tare da mafi yawan damar shiga-fita na yau da kullun a kusa da ranar biyan kuɗi. Za mu kimanta da yawa daga cikin shari'o'in biyan kuɗin da aka ba da damar samun sama da 10% akan tsarin shekara-shekara sama da ƙimar hauhawar farashin kaya, idan kun shigar da hannun jari kwanaki 34 kafin ku fita kwanaki 25 bayan ranar biyan kuɗi.
Za mu yi la'akari da hannun jari wanda akwai aƙalla lokuta 5 na biyan kuɗi. An nuna sakamakon faretin buga faretin a ƙasa. Yi la'akari da cewa sakamakon zai fi dacewa da darajar kawai daga ra'ayi na matsalar nazarin bayanai, amma ba a matsayin jagora mai amfani ga zuba jari ba.
Specials
Yawan
lokuta na cin nasara
fiye da 10% a kowace shekara
sama da hauhawar farashin kaya
Yawan
lokuta
biya
rabo
Raba
lokuta
cin nasara
Matsakaicin ƙididdiga girma
Lenzoloto
5
5
1
1,320779017
Bayani: IDGC SZ
6
7
0,8571
1,070324870
Rollman-p
6
7
0,8571
1,029644533
Rosseti sama
4
5
0,8
1,279877637
Kubanenr
4
5
0,8
1,248634960
LSR JSC
8
10
0,8
1,085474828
ALROSA JSC
8
10
0,8
1,042920287
Farashin FGC UES JSC
6
8
0,75
1,087420610
Farashin JSC
10
14
0,7143
1,166690777
KuzbTK JSC
5
7
0,7143
1,029743667
Daga nazarin kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari, za mu iya zana sakamakon haka:
- An tabbatar da cewa dawowar hannun jarin da aka bayyana a cikin kayan dillalai, kamfanonin zuba jari da sauran masu sha'awar sun fi yawan ajiya da saka hannun jari.
- Rashin daidaituwa na kasuwar jari yana da girma sosai, amma yana yiwuwa a zuba jari na dogon lokaci tare da mahimmancin rarrabuwa na fayil ɗin. Domin kare kanka da ƙarin 13% cire haraji lokacin da zuba jari a IIS, yana da kyau sosai don bude kasuwar jari don kanka kuma ana iya yin haka, ciki har da Sberbank.
- Dangane da nazarin sakamakon na lokutan da suka gabata, an sami shugabanni dangane da tsayayyen riba mai yawa da ribar shiga-wuri a kusa da ranar biyan kuɗi. Koyaya, sakamakon ba su da tabbas kuma bai kamata ku ba su jagora kawai a cikin jarin ku ba. Waɗannan misalai ne na ayyukan nazarin bayanai.
Jimlar
Yana da amfani don adana bayanan kadarorin ku, da kuɗin shiga da kashe kuɗi. Yana taimakawa wajen tsara kudi. Idan kun sarrafa don adana kuɗi, to akwai damar da za ku saka hannun jari a cikin ƙimar da ta fi hauhawar hauhawar farashin kaya. Wani bincike na bayanai daga tafkin data Sberbank ya nuna cewa adibas a kowace shekara sun dawo 2%, gidajen haya - 4,5%, da hannun jari na Rasha - game da 10% sama da hauhawar farashin kaya tare da babban haɗari.
Mawallafi: Mikhail Grichik, gwani na ƙwararrun al'umma na Sberbank SberProfi DWH/BigData.
SberProfi DWH/BigData ƙwararrun al'umma suna da alhakin haɓaka ƙwarewa a irin waɗannan yankuna kamar Hadoop ecosystem, Teradata, Oracle DB, GreenPlum, da BI kayan aikin Qlik, SAP BO, Tableau, da sauransu.
source: www.habr.com