Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Wannan jerin labaran an keɓe don nazarin ayyukan gine-gine a babban birnin Silicon Valley - San Francisco. San Francisco shine fasaha na "Moscow" na duniyarmu, ta yin amfani da misalinsa (tare da taimakon bayanan budewa) don lura da ci gaban masana'antar gine-gine a manyan birane da manyan birane.

An gudanar da ginin zane-zane da lissafi a ciki Jupyter Notebook (a kan dandalin Kaggle.com).

Bayanai akan izinin gini fiye da miliyan ɗaya (littattafai a cikin bayanai biyu) daga Sashen Ginin San Francisco - yana ba da izini bincika ba kawai ayyukan gini a cikin birni ba, amma kuma a yi la'akari sosai sabbin abubuwa da tarihin ci gaban masana'antar gini a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata, tsakanin 1980 zuwa 2019.

Buɗe bayanai yana ba da damar bincika manyan abubuwan da suka yi tasiri kuma zasu tasiri ci gaban masana'antar gine-gine a cikin birni, rarraba su zuwa "na waje" (tattalin arziki da rikice-rikice) da "na ciki" (tasirin lokutan hutu da lokutan yanayi-shekara-shekara).

Abubuwa

Buɗe bayanai da bayyani na sigogin farko
Ayyukan gine-gine na shekara-shekara a San Francisco
Tsammani da gaskiya lokacin shirya kimar farashi
Ayyukan gine-gine dangane da yanayin shekara
Jimlar saka hannun jari a San Francisco
Wadanne yankuna suka zuba jari a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata?
Matsakaicin kiyasin farashin aikace-aikacen ta gundumar birni
Kididdigar kan jimillar adadin aikace-aikace ta wata da rana
Makomar Masana'antar Gina ta San Francisco

Buɗe bayanai da sake duba sigogi na asali.

Wannan ba fassarar labarin ba ce. Na rubuta akan LinkedIn kuma don kada in ƙirƙiri zane-zane a cikin yaruka da yawa, duk zane-zane a cikin Ingilishi suke. Haɗin kai zuwa sigar Turanci: Haɓaka da ƙasa na Masana'antar Gina ta San Francisco. Hanyoyin da Tarihin Ginawa.

Mahadar zuwa kashi na biyu:
Sassan gine-gine da kuma farashin aiki a cikin Babban Birni. Haɓakawa da kuma duba girma a San Francisco

Bayanan Izinin Ginin Birnin San Francisco - Daga Buɗaɗɗen Bayanan Bayanai - data.sfgov.org. Tashar yanar gizon tana da bayanai da yawa akan batun gini. Irin waɗannan bayanan guda biyu suna adanawa da sabunta bayanai kan izini da aka bayar don gini ko gyara abubuwa a cikin birni:

Waɗannan bayanan sun ƙunshi bayanai game da izinin gini da aka bayar, tare da halaye daban-daban na abin da aka ba da izinin. Jimlar adadin shigarwa (izini) da aka karɓa a cikin lokacin 1980-2019 - 1 izini.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Babban sigogi daga wannan bayanan da aka yi amfani da su don bincike:

  • izni_kwanan_halitta - ranar ƙirƙirar aikace-aikacen (a zahiri, ranar da aikin gini ya fara)
  • bayanin - bayanin aikace-aikacen (kalmomi biyu ko uku waɗanda ke kwatanta aikin ginin (aiki) wanda aka ƙirƙiri izini)
  • kiyasta_farashin - kimanta (ƙididdigar) farashin aikin gini
  • bita_farashin - farashin da aka bita (farashin aikin bayan ƙima, haɓaka ko raguwar adadin farkon aikace-aikacen)
  • kasance_amfani - nau'in gidaje (gida ɗaya, gida biyu, gidaje, ofisoshi, samarwa, da sauransu)
  • zipcode, wuri - lambar akwatin gidan waya da abubuwan daidaitawa

Ayyukan gine-gine na shekara-shekara a San Francisco

Hoton da ke ƙasa yana nuna sigogi kiyasta_farashin и bita_farashin an gabatar da shi azaman rarraba jimillar kuɗin aikin da wata.

data_cost_m = data_cost.groupby(pd.Grouper(freq='M')).sum()

Don rage “masu fita” na wata-wata, ana tattara bayanan kowane wata ta shekara. Jadawalin adadin kuɗin da aka saka a shekara ya sami mafi ma'ana da nau'i na nazari.

data_cost_y = data_cost.groupby(pd.Grouper(freq='Y')).sum()

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Dangane da motsi na shekara-shekara na jimlar farashin (duk izini na shekara) zuwa wuraren birni Abubuwan tattalin arziki da suka yi tasiri daga 1980 zuwa 2019 suna bayyane a fili akan adadin da farashin ayyukan gine-gine, ko in ba haka ba akan saka hannun jari a cikin gidaje na San Francisco.

Yawan izinin gini (yawan ayyukan gine-gine ko adadin saka hannun jari) a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata yana da alaƙa da ayyukan tattalin arziki a Silicon Valley.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Kololuwar farko na ayyukan ginin tana da alaƙa da haɓakar kayan lantarki na tsakiyar 80s a cikin kwarin. koma bayan tattalin arziki da na banki da ya biyo baya a shekarar 1985 ya jefa kasuwar gidaje ta yankin cikin koma baya wanda kusan shekaru goma bata farfado ba.

Bayan haka, sau biyu (a cikin 1993-2000 da 2009-2016) kafin rushewar kumfa Dotcom da haɓakar fasaha na 'yan shekarun nan. Masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco ta sami ci gaba mai ban mamaki na kashi dubu da yawa..

Ta hanyar cire matsakaicin kololuwa da tudun ruwa da barin mafi ƙanƙanta da ƙimar ƙima ga kowane zagayowar tattalin arziƙi, ya bayyana sarai yadda manyan sauye-sauyen kasuwa suka addabi masana'antar a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Mafi girman karuwar saka hannun jari a cikin gine-gine ya faru ne a lokacin bunƙasar dot-com, lokacin da tsakanin 1993 da 2001 aka saka dala biliyan 10 wajen gyarawa da gine-gine, ko kuma kusan dala biliyan 1 a kowace shekara. Idan muka ƙidaya a cikin murabba'in mita (farashin 1 m² a 1995 shine $ 3000), wannan shine kusan 350 m000 kowace shekara don shekaru 2, farawa a 10.

Haɓaka jimillar zuba jari na shekara-shekara a wannan lokacin ya kai 1215%.

Kamfanonin da suka yi hayar kayan gini a wannan lokacin sun yi kama da kamfanonin da suka sayar da shebur a lokacin tseren zinare (a wannan yanki a tsakiyar karni na 19). Sai kawai a maimakon shebur, a cikin 2000s an riga an riga an sami cranes da famfo don sababbin kamfanonin gine-ginen da aka kafa da ke son samun kuɗi a kan haɓakar gine-gine.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Bayan kowace irin rikice-rikice da masana'antar gine-gine ta fuskanta tsawon shekaru. a cikin shekaru biyu masu zuwa bayan rikicin, zuba jari (yawan aikace-aikacen izini) don gini ya fadi da akalla 50% kowane lokaci.

Babban rikice-rikice a masana'antar gine-gine na San Francisco sun faru a cikin 90s. Inda, tare da wani lokaci na shekaru 5, masana'antar ko dai ta faɗi (-85% a cikin lokacin 1983-1986), sannan ta sake tashi (+ 895% a cikin lokacin 1988-1992), saura cikin sharuddan shekara-shekara a 1981, 1986, 1988 , 1993 - a daidai wannan matakin.

Bayan 1993, duk raguwar da aka samu a masana'antar gine-gine bai wuce 50% ba. Amma fuskantar rikicin tattalin arziki (saboda COVID-19) zai iya haifar da rikici a cikin masana'antar gine-gine a cikin lokacin 2017-2021, raguwar wanda tuni a cikin lokacin 2017-2019 ya kai jimlar fiye da 60%.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Girman yawan jama'ar San Francisco dynamics a cikin lokacin 1980-1993 kuma ya nuna kusan girma girma. Ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi da ingantaccen makamashi na Silicon Valley shine ƙaƙƙarfan ginshiƙi wanda aka gina ginshiƙi na Sabon Tattalin Arziki, Renaissance na Amurka, da dige-coms. Ita ce jigon sabon tattalin arziki. Amma ba kamar hauhawar saka hannun jari ba, bayan dot-com kololuwa, a zahiri yawan jama'a sun yi yawa.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Kafin kololuwar dot-com a cikin 2001, haɓakar yawan jama'a na shekara-shekara tun daga 1950 ya kasance kusan 1% a kowace shekara. Bayan haka, bayan rugujewar kumfa, kwararowar sabbin jama'a ya ragu kuma tun daga shekarar 2001 ya kasance kashi 0.2 cikin dari a kowace shekara.

A cikin 2019 (a karon farko tun 1950), haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar jama'a ta nuna yawan jama'a (-0.21% ko mutane 7000) daga birnin San Francisco.

Tsammani da gaskiya lokacin shirya kimar farashi

A cikin bayanan da aka yi amfani da su, an raba bayanai kan farashin izinin aikin gini zuwa:

  • ƙimar ƙiyasin asali (kiyasta_farashin)
  • kudin aikin bayan kimantawa (bita_farashin)

A lokacin lokutan haɓaka, babban manufar ƙididdigewa shine haɓaka farashin farko, lokacin da mai saka hannun jari (abokin ciniki na ginin) ya nuna sha'awar ci bayan fara ginin.
A lokacin rikici, suna ƙoƙarin kada su wuce ƙimar da aka kiyasta, kuma ƙididdiga ta farko ba ta cika kusan canje-canje ba (sai dai girgizar kasa ta 1989).

Dangane da jadawali da aka gina akan bambanci tsakanin ƙimar ƙima da ƙima (revised_cost - kiyasta_cost), ana iya lura cewa:

Adadin karuwar farashi lokacin da aka sake kimanta girman aikin ginin kai tsaye ya dogara da hawan hawan tattalin arziki

data_spread = data_cost.assign(spread = (data_cost.revised_cost-data_cost.estimated_cost))

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

A cikin lokutan ci gaban tattalin arziki cikin sauri, abokan ciniki na aiki (masu zuba jari) suna kashe kuɗin su da karimci, suna ƙara buƙatun su bayan fara aiki.

Abokin ciniki (mai saka hannun jari), yana jin kwarin gwiwa na kuɗi, ya nemi ɗan kwangilar gini ko gine-gine su tsawaita izinin gini da aka riga aka bayar. Wannan na iya zama yanke shawara don ƙara tsawon farkon tafkin ko ƙara yawan yankin gidan (bayan fara aiki da bayar da izinin gini).

A kololuwar zamanin dot-com, irin wannan “ƙarin” kashe kuɗi ya kai “karin” biliyan 1 a kowace shekara.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Idan ka dubi wannan tebur da ke cikin canjin kashi, to, haɓaka mafi girma a cikin kiyasin (100% ko sau 2 na ainihin farashin da aka kiyasta) ya faru a cikin shekara kafin girgizar kasa da ta faru a 1989 kusa da birnin. Ina tsammanin cewa bayan girgizar kasa, ayyukan gine-gine da suka fara a 1988 sun buƙaci, bayan girgizar kasa a 1989, ƙarin lokaci da kudade don aiwatarwa.

Akasin haka, sake fasalin kuɗin da aka kiyasta (wanda ya faru sau ɗaya kawai a tsakanin 1980 zuwa 2019) shekaru da yawa kafin girgizar ƙasa mai yiwuwa ne saboda gaskiyar cewa wasu ayyukan da aka fara a 1986-1987 sun daskare ko kuma an yanke saka hannun jari a waɗannan ayyukan. kasa. A kan jadawalin a matsakaita na kowane aikin da aka fara a 1987 - raguwar ƙimar da aka kiyasta shine -20% na ainihin shirin..

data_spred_percent = data_cost_y.assign(spred = ((data_cost_y.revised_cost-data_cost_y.estimated_cost)/data_cost_y.estimated_cost*100))

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Haɓaka a farkon kiyasin farashin sama da kashi 40 da aka nuna ko yuwuwa ne sakamakon kumfa da ke gabatowa a cikin kuɗi kuma daga baya kasuwar gini.

Menene dalilin raguwar yaɗuwar (bambanci) tsakanin ƙimar da aka kiyasta da sake dubawa bayan 2007?

Wataƙila masu zuba jari sun fara kallon lambobi a hankali (matsakaicin adadin a kan shekaru 20 ya karu daga dala dubu 100 zuwa dala miliyan 2) ko watakila ma'aikatar gine-gine, hanawa da hana kumfa masu tasowa a cikin kasuwannin gidaje, sun gabatar da sababbin dokoki da ƙuntatawa don rage yiwuwar manipulations. da yiwuwar haɗari da za su taso a cikin shekarun rikici.

Ayyukan gine-gine dangane da yanayin shekara

Ta hanyar tara bayanai ta makonnin kalanda na shekara (makonni 54), zaku iya lura da ayyukan gini a cikin birnin San Francisco dangane da yanayi da lokacin shekara.

Ta Kirsimeti, duk ƙungiyoyin gine-gine suna ƙoƙarin samun izini don sababbin ayyukan "manyan" a cikin lokaci. (a lokaci guda! adadin izini a cikin waɗannan watanni guda ɗaya yana daidai da matakin a cikin shekara). Masu zuba jari, suna shirin karɓar dukiyarsu a cikin shekara ta gaba, suna shiga kwangila a cikin watanni na hunturu, suna ƙidayar rangwame mai yawa (tun lokacin da kwangilar rani, a mafi yawan lokuta, yana zuwa ƙarshe a ƙarshen shekara kuma kamfanonin gine-gine suna sha'awar. a karbar sabbin aikace-aikace).

Kafin Kirsimeti, ana ƙaddamar da mafi yawan adadin aikace-aikacen (ƙara daga matsakaicin biliyan 1-1,5 a kowane wata zuwa biliyan 5 a watan Disamba kaɗai). A lokaci guda, jimillar adadin aikace-aikacen kowane wata ya kasance a daidai matakin (duba sashe na ƙasa: ƙididdiga akan jimlar yawan aikace-aikacen wata da rana)

Bayan hutun hunturu, masana'antar gine-gine suna yin shiri sosai da aiwatar da umarnin "Kirsimeti" (ba tare da kusan karuwar adadin izini ba) don 'yantar da albarkatu a tsakiyar shekara (kafin hutun Ranar Independence) kafin sabon sabon. kalaman rani kwangila fara nan da nan bayan Yuni holidays.

data_month_year = data_month_year.assign(week_year = data_month_year.permit_creation_date.dt.week)
data_month_year = data_month_year.groupby(['week_year'])['estimated_cost'].sum()

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Hakanan adadin adadin (layin orange) yana nuna cewa masana'antar tana aiki "lafiya" a duk shekara, amma kafin da kuma bayan hutu, aiki akan izini yana ƙaruwa zuwa 150% a cikin lokacin tsakanin sati 20-24 (kafin Independence Day), da kuma ya ragu nan da nan bayan biki har zuwa -70%.

Kafin Halloween da Kirsimeti, aiki a cikin masana'antar gine-gine na San Francisco yana ƙaruwa da 43% a cikin mako 44-150 (daga ƙasa zuwa kololuwa) sannan ya ragu zuwa sifili yayin bukukuwa.

Don haka, masana'antar tana cikin sake zagayowar watanni shida, wanda aka raba ta hutu "Ranar Independence Day" (mako 20) da "Kirsimeti" (mako 52).

Jimlar saka hannun jari a San Francisco

Dangane da bayanai kan izinin gini a cikin birni:

Jimlar zuba jari a ayyukan gine-gine a San Francisco daga 1980 zuwa 2019 shine dala biliyan 91,5.

sf_worth = data_location_lang_long.cost.sum()

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Jimillar darajar kasuwa na duk wani gida na zama a San Francisco wanda aka kimanta ta harajin kadara (kasancewar kimar duk wani kadarori da duk kadarorin da San Francisco ya mallaka) ya kai dala biliyan 2016 a shekarar 208.

Wadanne yankuna na San Francisco suka saka hannun jari a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata?

Yin amfani da ɗakin karatu na Folium, bari mu ga inda wannan yanki ya kashe dala biliyan 91,5. Don yin wannan, bayan tattara bayanan ta hanyar lambar zip, za mu wakilci sakamakon ƙimar ta amfani da da'ira (aikin Circle daga ɗakin karatu na Folium).

import folium
from folium import Circle
from folium import Marker
from folium.features import DivIcon

# map folium display
lat = data_location_lang_long.lat.mean()
long = data_location_lang_long.long.mean()
map1 = folium.Map(location = [lat, long], zoom_start = 12)

for i in range(0,len(data_location_lang_long)):
    Circle(
        location = [data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['lat'], data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['long']],
        radius= [data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['cost']/20000000],
        fill = True, fill_color='#cc0000',color='#cc0000').add_to(map1)
    Marker(
    [data_location_mean.iloc[i]['lat'], data_location_mean.iloc[i]['long']],
    icon=DivIcon(
        icon_size=(6000,3336),
        icon_anchor=(0,0),
        html='<div style="font-size: 14pt; text-shadow: 0 0 10px #fff, 0 0 10px #fff;; color: #000";"">%s</div>'
        %("$ "+ str((data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['cost']/1000000000).round()) + ' mlrd.'))).add_to(map1)
map1

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Ya tabbata daga yankunan cewa Yawancin kek sun tafi DownTown a hankali. Bayan an sauƙaƙa haɗa dukkan abubuwa ta nisa zuwa tsakiyar gari da kuma lokacin da ake ɗauka don isa tsakiyar gari (ba shakka, ana gina gidaje masu tsada a bakin tekun), duk izini an raba su zuwa rukuni 4: 'Downtown' , '<0.5H Cikin Garin', '< 1H Cikin Garin', 'Waje SF'.

from geopy.distance import vincenty
def distance_calc (row):
    start = (row['lat'], row['long'])
    stop = (37.7945742, -122.3999445)

    return vincenty(start, stop).meters/1000

df_pr['distance'] = df_pr.apply (lambda row: distance_calc (row),axis=1)

def downtown_proximity(dist):
    '''
    < 2 -> Near Downtown,  >= 2, <4 -> <0.5H Downtown
    >= 4, <6 -> <1H Downtown, >= 8 -> Outside SF
    '''
    if dist < 2:
        return 'Downtown'
    elif dist < 4:
        return  '<0.5H Downtown'
    elif dist < 6:
        return '<1H Downtown'
    elif dist >= 6:
        return 'Outside SF'
df_pr['downtown_proximity'] = df_pr.distance.apply(downtown_proximity)

Daga cikin biliyan 91,5 da aka zuba a cikin birnin, kusan biliyan 70 (75% na duk jarin da aka zuba) wajen gyara da gine-gine suna tsakiyar birnin. (yankin kore) kuma zuwa yankin birni tsakanin radius na kilomita 2. daga tsakiya (blue zone).

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Matsakaicin kiyasin farashin aikace-aikacen gini ta gundumar birni

Dukkan bayanai, kamar tare da jimlar adadin jari, an haɗa su ta lambar zip. A wannan yanayin kawai tare da matsakaicin (.ma'ana()) ƙiyasin farashin aikace-aikacen ta lambar zip.

data_location_mean = data_location.groupby(['zipcode'])['lat','long','estimated_cost'].mean()

A cikin yankunan talakawa na birni (fiye da 2 km daga tsakiyar gari) - matsakaicin ƙimar da aka kiyasta na aikace-aikacen gini shine $ 50 dubu.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Matsakaicin kiyasin farashi a yankin tsakiyar birni ya ninka kusan sau uku ($ 150 zuwa $ 400 dubu) fiye da sauran wurare ($ 30-50 dubu).

Baya ga farashin filaye, abubuwa uku ne ke ƙayyade adadin kuɗin ginin gida: aiki, kayan aiki, da kuɗin gwamnati. Waɗannan abubuwa uku sun fi girma a California fiye da sauran ƙasar. Lambobin gine-ginen California ana ɗaukarsu wasu daga cikin mafi cikakku kuma masu tsauri a cikin ƙasar (saboda girgizar ƙasa da ƙa'idojin muhalli), galibi suna buƙatar kayan aiki da tsadar kayayyaki.

Misali, gwamnati na bukatar magina da su yi amfani da kayan gini masu inganci (taga, rufi, dumama da na'urorin sanyaya) don cimma ma'aunin ingancin makamashi.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Daga ƙididdiga na gabaɗaya akan matsakaicin farashin aikace-aikacen izini, wurare biyu sun yi fice:

  • Treasure Island - tsibiri na wucin gadi a San Francisco Bay. Matsakaicin kiyasin kudin izinin ginin dala miliyan 6,5 ne.
  • Ofishin Jakadancin Bay - (yawan jama'a 2926) Matsakaicin kiyasin kudin izinin ginin dala miliyan 1,5 ne.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

A zahiri, matsakaicin matsakaicin aikace-aikacen a cikin waɗannan yankuna biyu yana da alaƙa tare da mafi ƙarancin adadin aikace-aikacen waɗannan wuraren gidan waya (145 da 3064 bi da bi, ginawa a tsibirin yana da iyaka), yayin da sauran lambobin gidan waya - XNUMX.kuma lokacin 1980-2019 ya karɓi kusan aikace-aikacen 1300 a kowace shekara (jimlar a kan matsakaita 30 -50 dubu aikace-aikace na dukan lokaci).

Dangane da sigar “yawan aikace-aikacen”, ana iya gani daidai ko da rarraba adadin aikace-aikacen kowane lambar akwatin gidan waya a cikin birni.

Kididdigar kan jimillar adadin aikace-aikace ta wata da rana

Ƙididdiga gabaɗaya kan adadin aikace-aikacen wata da rana ta mako tsakanin 1980 zuwa 2019 ya nuna cewa. Watanni mafi natsuwa ga sashen gine-gine sune watannin bazara da lokacin sanyi. A lokaci guda, adadin zuba jari da aka ƙayyade a cikin aikace-aikacen ya bambanta sosai kuma ya bambanta daga wata zuwa wata a wasu lokuta (duba bugu da žari "aikin gini ya danganta da kakar"). A cikin kwanakin mako, a ranar Litinin nauyin da ke kan sashin ya kai kusan kashi 20% fiye da sauran kwanakin mako.

months = [ 'January', 'February', 'March', 'April', 'May','June', 'July', 'August', 'September', 'October', 'November', 'December' ]
data_month_count  = data_month.groupby(['permit_creation_date']).count().reindex(months) 

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Yayin da Yuni da Yuli kusan iri ɗaya ne ta fuskar adadin aikace-aikacen, dangane da jimillar kuɗin da aka kiyasta bambancin ya kai 100% (Biliyan 4,3 a watan Mayu da Yuli da biliyan 8,2 a watan Yuni).

data_month_sum  = data_month.groupby(['permit_creation_date']).sum().reindex(months) 

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Makomar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco, tsinkayar aiki ta alamu.

A ƙarshe, bari mu kwatanta ginshiƙi na ayyukan gini a San Francisco tare da ginshiƙi farashin Bitcoin (2015-2018) da ginshiƙi farashin zinare (1940 - 1980).

tsari (daga tsarin Ingilishi - samfuri, samfurin) - a cikin bincike na fasaha barga maimaita haɗuwa na farashi, ƙarar ko bayanan mai nuna alama. Binciken tsari yana dogara ne akan ɗayan axioms na bincike na fasaha: "Tarihi yana maimaita kansa" - an yi imanin cewa maimaita haɗuwa da bayanai suna haifar da sakamako iri ɗaya.

Babban tsarin da za a iya gani akan jadawalin ayyukan shekara shine Wannan shine tsarin jujjuyawar yanayin "Kai da kafadu". Don haka mai suna saboda ginshiƙi yayi kama da kan ɗan adam (kololuwa) da kafadu a gefe (ƙananan kololuwa). Lokacin da farashin ya karya layin da ke haɗa tudun ruwa, ana ɗaukar ƙirar cikakke kuma motsi yana iya zama ƙasa.

Yunkurin da ake yi a cikin masana'antar gine-gine na San Francisco kusan ya zo daidai da hauhawar farashin zinari da bitcoin. Ayyukan tarihi na waɗannan farashin uku da jadawalin ayyuka suna nuna fitattun kamanni.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Don samun damar yin hasashen halayen kasuwancin gine-gine a nan gaba, wajibi ne a lissafta ma'aunin daidaitawa tare da kowanne daga cikin waɗannan abubuwan guda biyu.

Ana kiran masu canjin bazuwar guda biyu masu alaƙa idan lokacin daidaitawar su (ko haɗin kai) ya bambanta da sifili; kuma ana kiran su ƙididdige adadin da ba su da alaƙa idan lokacin haɗin su ya zama sifili.

Idan sakamakon da aka samu ya fi kusa da 0 fiye da 1, to babu wata ma'ana a magana game da tsari mai tsabta. Wannan matsala ce mai sarƙaƙƙiya ta ilimin lissafi, wadda tsofaffin ƴan uwa waɗanda ke da sha'awar wannan batu za su iya ɗauka.

Idan! rashin kimiyya! dubi batun ci gaba da ci gaban masana'antar gine-gine a San Francisco: idan tsarin ya ci gaba da daidaitawa da farashin Bitcoin, to. bisa ga wannan zaɓen maras kyau - fita daga rikicin masana'antar gine-gine a San Francisco ba zai zama mai sauƙi ba a cikin lokacin rikicin nan da nan.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

Tare da ƙarin zaɓi na "kyakkyawan fata". ci gaba, ci gaba mai yawa a cikin masana'antar gine-gine yana yiwuwa idan aiki a nan ya bi yanayin "farashin zinariya". A wannan yanayin, a cikin shekaru 20-30 (watakila a cikin 10), sashin gine-ginen zai fuskanci sabon karuwar aiki da ci gaba.

Haɓaka da faɗuwar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco. Trends da tarihin ci gaban ayyukan gini

A kashi na gaba Zan yi nazari sosai kan sassan gine-gine guda ɗaya (gyaran rufin, kicin, ginin matakala, dakunan wanka, idan kuna da wasu shawarwari kan masana'antu ko wasu bayanan - don Allah a rubuta a cikin sharhi) da kwatanta hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ga kowane nau'in aiki tare da ƙayyadaddun ƙima akan lamunin jinginar gida da ribar hannun jarin Amurka (Kafaffen Kuɗi na Lamuni & Haɓaka Baitul-mali na Amurka).

Mahadar zuwa kashi na biyu:
Sassan gine-gine da kuma farashin aiki a cikin Babban Birni. Haɓakawa da kuma duba girma a San Francisco

Hanyar haɗi zuwa Jupyter Notebook: San Francisco. Bangaren gini 1980-2019.
Da fatan za a, ga waɗanda ke tare da Kaggle, ba da littafin rubutu ƙari (Na gode!).
(Za a ƙara sharhi da bayanin lambar daga baya a cikin littafin rubutu)

Hanyar haɗi zuwa fassarar Turanci: Haɓaka da ƙasa na Masana'antar Gina ta San Francisco. Hanyoyi da Tarihin Gina.

Idan kuna jin daɗin abun ciki na, don Allah kuyi la'akari da siyan kofi.
godiya ga goyon bayan ku! Saya kofi ga marubucin

Masu amfani da rajista kawai za su iya shiga cikin binciken. Shigadon Allah.

Menene makomar masana'antar gine-gine ta San Francisco?

  • 66,7%Sashin gine-gine ya fi dacewa ya bi hanyar Bitcoin2

  • 0,0%Bangaren gine-gine na iya bin hanyar farashin gwal0

  • 0,0%Sashin yana tsammanin zazzagewa a cikin shekaru 10 masu zuwa

  • 33,3%Ci gaban sashen baya tafiya bisa ga alamu1

Masu amfani 3 sun kada kuri'a. Masu amfani 6 sun kaurace.

source: www.habr.com

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