Abubuwan da ke hana ci gaban masana'antar semiconductor baya kama da shinge, amma bangon bango. Amma duk da haka, masana'antar tana ci gaba mataki-mataki, bin ka'idar da aka kafa shekaru 55 da suka gabata. Ko da yake tare da wasu caveats, adadin transistor a cikin kwakwalwan kwamfuta yana ci gaba da ninkawa kowace shekara biyu.
Don guje wa rashin tushe, manazarta daga IC Insights A kan yanayin kasuwar semiconductor a cikin 2020. Rahoton ya haɗa da ci gaban tarihin manyan kasuwanni tun 71: ƙwaƙwalwar DRAM, ƙwaƙwalwar filashin NAND, microprocessors, da masu sarrafa hoto.
Manazarta sun lura cewa a cikin shekaru 10-15 da suka gabata, abubuwa kamar amfani da wutar lantarki da iyakancewar ƙima sun fara tasiri sosai ga ƙimar haɓakar transistor a cikin wasu samfuran da'ira. Koyaya, gabaɗaya, sabbin ci gaba da sabbin hanyoyin ƙirar guntu da masana'anta suna ba da shawarar cewa Dokar Moore za ta ci gaba da riƙewa.
Misali, adadin transistor a cikin kwakwalwan kwamfuta na DRAM ya karu a matsakaicin adadin kusan 45% a kowace shekara a farkon shekarun 2000, amma ya ragu zuwa kashi 20% a kowace shekara tun daga 2016, bayan gabatarwar ƙwaƙwalwar 16-Gb ta mutu daga Samsung. Ma'aunin DDR5, wanda har yanzu JEDEC ke kammalawa, zai haɗa da na'urori guda ɗaya waɗanda ke da ƙarfin 24 Gb, 32 Gb, da 64 Gb, wanda ke wakiltar ci gaba na gaba.
Yawan girma na shekara-shekara na yawan ƙwaƙwalwar walƙiya ya kasance a 55-60% har zuwa 2012, amma tun daga lokacin ya ragu zuwa 30-35%. Don ƙwaƙwalwar filasha mai tsari, mafi girman yawa shine 128 Gbit (kamar na Janairu 2020). A halin yanzu, matsakaicin girman 3D NAND flash memory ya kai 1,33 Tbit don ƙwaƙwalwar Layer 96 tare da rago huɗu da aka rubuta zuwa kowane tantanin halitta (QLC). 1,5 Tbit 128-Layer chips ana sa ran su bayyana a ƙarshen shekara, tare da ƙarfin daga baya yana ƙaruwa zuwa 2 Tbit.
Adadin transistor a cikin microprocessors na Intel PC ya karu da kusan 40% a kowace shekara har zuwa 2010, amma wannan adadin ya ragu a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Ƙididdigar transistor na ci gaba da girma a cikin masu sarrafa sabar kamfanin. Wannan ci gaban ya tsaya a tsakiyar-zuwa ƙarshen 2000s amma sai ya ci gaba da kusan kashi 25% a kowace shekara. Intel ya daina bayyana adadin transistor a cikin 2017.
Adadin transistor a cikin na'urorin sarrafa aikace-aikacen Apple a cikin wayoyin komai da ruwanka iPhone Tun daga shekarar 2013, tallace-tallacen iPad sun karu da kashi 43% a kowace shekara. Wannan adadi ya haɗa da na'urar sarrafawa ta A13 tare da na'urorin transistors biliyan 8,5. Ana sa ran Apple zai gabatar da iPad Pro, wanda sabon na'urar sarrafawa ta A13X ke amfani da shi, a rabin farko na shekarar 2020.
Babban aikin NVIDIA GPUs yana da ƙididdige ƙimar transistor. Ba kamar microprocessors ba, GPUs, tare da matsananciyar daidaiton tsarin gine-gine, ba su da adadi mai yawa na ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar cache, suna barin isasshen sarari don dabaru (transistor). Ci gaba da mai da hankali kan kamfanin a kan masu hanzari don koyon inji kuma AI kawai za ta ƙara rura wutar wannan yanayin.
source: 3dnews.ru
