Labarin ya tattauna yankunan aikace-aikacen jerin lokaci, matsalolin da za a warware, da algorithms da aka yi amfani da su. Ana amfani da tsinkayar jerin lokaci a cikin ɗawainiya kamar buƙatun hasashen, nauyin cibiyar sadarwa, hanya da zirga-zirgar Intanet, magance matsalar farawa sanyi a cikin tsarin masu ba da shawara, da neman abubuwan da ba su dace ba a cikin halayen kayan aiki da masu amfani.
Bari mu kalli ayyukan daki-daki.
1) Hasashen buƙatu.
Manufar: rage farashin sito da inganta jadawalin aikin ma'aikata.
Yadda za a warware shi: samun hasashen sayayya na kayayyaki da adadin abokan ciniki, muna rage yawan adadin kayayyaki a cikin sito da adana daidai gwargwadon yadda za a saya a cikin kewayon lokaci. Sanin adadin abokan ciniki a kowane lokaci, za mu zana jadawalin aiki mafi kyau don samun isassun adadin ma'aikata tare da ƙarancin farashi.
2) Hasashen kaya akan sabis ɗin bayarwa
Manufar: don hana rugujewar dabaru yayin babban lodi.
Yadda za a warware shi: tsinkaya adadin umarni, kawo mafi kyawun adadin motoci da masu jigilar kaya zuwa layin.
3) Hasashen kaya akan cibiyar sadarwar
Manufar: don tabbatar da kasancewar da ake buƙata na cibiyar sadarwar yayin da rage farashin kuɗin albashi.
Yadda ake warwarewa: Hasashen adadin kira akan lokaci, ƙirƙirar jadawali mafi kyau ga masu aiki.
4) Hasashen zirga-zirga
Manufar: tsinkaya adadin sabobin da bandwidth don aiki mai tsayi. Don kada sabis ɗin ku ya fado a ranar da za a fara fitowar mashahurin shirye-shiryen talabijin ko wasan ƙwallon ƙafa 😉
5) Hasashen mafi kyawun lokacin tattara ATM
Manufar: rage yawan kuɗin da aka adana a cibiyar sadarwar ATM
6) Magani ga matsalar farawa sanyi a cikin tsarin shawarwari
Manufar: Ba da shawarar samfuran da suka dace ga sababbin masu amfani.
Lokacin da mai amfani ya yi sayayya da yawa, ana iya gina algorithm tace haɗin gwiwa don shawarwari, amma lokacin da babu bayani game da mai amfani, yana da kyau a ba da shawarar samfuran shahararrun samfuran.
Magani: Shahararrun samfuran ya dogara da lokacin da aka ba da shawarar. Yin amfani da tsinkayar jerin lokaci yana taimakawa gano samfuran da suka dace a kowane lokaci na lokaci.
Mun duba hacks na rayuwa don gina tsarin bada shawarwari a ciki .
7) Neman abubuwan da ba su da kyau
Manufar: don gano matsalolin aiki na kayan aiki da kuma yanayin da ba daidai ba a cikin kasuwanci
Magani: Idan ƙimar da aka auna ta waje da tazarar amincewa, an gano wani abu mara kyau. Idan wannan tashar makamashin nukiliya ce, lokaci yayi da za a ƙara murabba'in nisa 😉
Algorithms don magance matsalar
1) Matsakaicin motsi
Algorithm mafi sauƙi shine matsakaicin motsi. Bari mu ƙididdige matsakaicin ƙima akan ƴan abubuwa na ƙarshe kuma muyi hasashen. Don hasashen yanayi sama da kwanaki 10, ana amfani da irin wannan hanya.
Lokacin da yake da mahimmanci cewa ƙimar ƙarshe a cikin jerin suna ba da gudummawar ƙarin nauyi, muna gabatar da ƙididdigar ƙima dangane da nisa na kwanan wata, samun samfurin ma'auni:
Don haka, zaku iya saita ƙimar W ta yadda matsakaicin nauyi ya faɗi akan kwanakin 2 na ƙarshe da kwanakin shigarwa.
Yin la'akari da abubuwan cyclical
Ingancin shawarwarin na iya shafar abubuwan da ke zagaye, kamar daidaituwa da ranar mako, kwanan wata, bukukuwan da suka gabata, da sauransu.
Shinkafa 1. Misalin bazuwar jerin lokaci zuwa yanayin yanayi, yanayin yanayi da hayaniya
Sliming mai ma'ana shine mafita don la'akari da abubuwan cyclical.
Bari mu dubi hanyoyi na asali guda 3
1. Sauƙaƙe smoothing (samfurin launin ruwan kasa)
Yana wakiltar lissafin matsakaicin nauyi akan abubuwa 2 na ƙarshe na jerin.
2. Sauƙi sau biyu (Holt model)
Yin la'akari da canje-canje a cikin yanayin da kuma canje-canje a cikin saura dabi'u kewaye da wannan yanayin.
Muna ƙididdige hasashen canje-canje a cikin ragowar ® da Trend (d). Ƙimar ƙarshe ta y ita ce jimlar waɗannan adadi biyu.
3. Sliming sau uku (samfurin Holt-Winters)
Sliming sau uku yana kuma la'akari da bambance-bambancen yanayi.
Formula don smoothing sau uku.
ARIMA and SARIMA algorithm
Mahimmancin jerin lokaci don amfani da ARIMA shine alaƙa tsakanin ƙimar da suka gabata waɗanda ke da alaƙa da na yanzu da na gaba.
SARIMA - kari don jerin tare da yanayin yanayi. SARIMAX kari ne wanda ya hada da bangaren koma baya na waje.
Samfuran ARIMA suna ba ku damar kwaikwayi hadedde ko bambance-bambancen jerin lokaci.
Hanyar ARIMA zuwa jerin lokaci ita ce an fara tantance tsayuwar jerin.
Na gaba, jerin suna canzawa ta hanyar ɗaukar bambancin tsari mai dacewa, kuma an gina samfurin ARMA don samfurin da aka canza.
ARMA samfurin koma baya ne na layi.
Yana da mahimmanci cewa jerin su kasance a tsaye, watau. ma'ana da bambance-bambance ba su canza ba. Idan jerin ba na tsaye ba ne, ya kamata a kawo shi a cikin tsari na tsaye.
XGBoost - a ina za mu kasance ba tare da shi ba?
Idan jerin ba su da tsarin da aka bayyana na ciki, amma akwai abubuwan da ke tasiri na waje (mai sarrafa, yanayi, da sauransu), to, zaku iya amfani da samfuran koyo na na'ura kamar haɓakawa, dazuzzukan dazuzzuka, koma baya, hanyoyin sadarwa na jijiyoyi da SVM.
Daga gwanintar tawagar DATA4, Hasashen jerin lokaci, ɗaya daga cikin manyan ayyuka don warware haɓakar farashin sito, farashin ma'aikata, haɓaka hanyoyin kula da cibiyoyin sadarwa na ATM, dabaru da tsarin shawarwarin gini. Samfuran hadaddun irin su SARIMA suna ba da sakamako mai inganci, amma suna ɗaukar lokaci kuma sun dace da takamaiman ayyuka.
A cikin kasida ta gaba za mu dubi manyan hanyoyin da ake bi wajen neman abubuwan da ba su da kyau.
Don tabbatar da cewa labaran sun dace da abubuwan da kuke so, ɗauki binciken da ke ƙasa, ko rubuta a cikin sharhin abubuwan da za ku rubuta game da su a cikin labarai na gaba.
Masu amfani da rajista kawai za su iya shiga cikin binciken. don Allah.
Labarai kan wane batu kuke sha'awar?
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17 masu amfani sun kada kuri'a. Masu amfani 3 sun kaurace.
source: www.habr.com