E Habr!
ʻO Asya koʻu inoa. Ua loaʻa iaʻu kahi haʻiʻōlelo maikaʻi loa, ʻaʻole hiki iaʻu ke kaʻana like.
Hāʻawi wau i kou manaʻo i kahi hōʻuluʻulu o kahi haʻiʻōlelo wikiō e pili ana i nā paio pilikanaka ma ka ʻōlelo a nā mea makemakika theoretical. Loaʻa ka haʻiʻōlelo piha ma ka loulou: (A.V. Leonidov, A.V. Savvateev, A.G. Semenov). 2016.
ʻO Alexey Vladimirovich Savvateev - Moho o ka ʻepekema ʻEpekema, Kauka o ka ʻepekema kino a me ka makemakika, Kumu ma MIPT, ka mea noiʻi alakaʻi ma NES.
Ma kēia haʻiʻōlelo e kamaʻilio wau e pili ana i ka nānā ʻana o ka poʻe makemakika a me ka poʻe manaʻo pāʻani i kahi ʻano kaiapili hou, i hōʻike ʻia e ke koho balota no ʻEnelani e haʻalele i ka European Union (, kahi hanana o ka hoʻokaʻawale pilikanaka hohonu ma Rusia ma hope , me ka hopena weliweli.
Pehea ʻoe e hoʻohālikelike ai i nā kūlana i loaʻa iā lākou nā leo o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo? No ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i kahi hanana, pono ke aʻo ʻana ia mea, akā e hāʻawi kēia haʻiʻōlelo i kumu hoʻohālike.
Social schism 'o ia hoʻi
ʻO ka mea like o kēia mau hiʻohiʻona ʻekolu, ʻo ia ka hāʻule ʻana o ke kanaka i kahi hoʻomoana a hōʻole paha e komo a kūkākūkā i kāna mau koho. ʻO kēlā mau mea. ʻO ke koho o kēlā me kēia kanaka he ternary - mai ʻekolu mau waiwai:
- 0—hōʻole e komo i ka hakakā;
- 1 - komo i ka hakakā ma kekahi ʻaoʻao;
- -1 - komo i ka hakakā ma kēlā ʻaoʻao.
Aia nā hopena pololei e pili ana i kou ʻano ponoʻī i ka hakakā ma ka ʻoiaʻiʻo. Aia kekahi manaʻo he ʻano manaʻo priori kēlā me kēia kanaka e noho nei ma ʻaneʻi. A he loli maoli kēia.
No ka laʻana, inā maopopo ʻole ke kanaka i ka mea pololei, aia ke kiko ma ka laina helu ma kahi a puni ʻaʻole, no ka laʻana ma 0,1. Ke maopopo ka 100% o ke kanaka i ka pololei o kekahi, a laila ʻo -3 a i ʻole +15 kona palena i loko, ma muli o ka ikaika o kona mau manaʻoʻiʻo. ʻO ia hoʻi, aia kekahi ʻāpana waiwai i ke kanaka ma kona poʻo, a hōʻike ia i kona ʻano i ka hakakā.
He mea nui inā koho ʻoe i ka 0, a laila ʻaʻole pili kēia i nā hopena iā ʻoe, ʻaʻohe lanakila i ka pāʻani, ua haʻalele ʻoe i ka hakakā.
Inā koho ʻoe i kahi mea kūpono ʻole me kou kūlana, a laila e hōʻike ʻia kahi hōʻemi ma mua o vi, no ka laʻana vi = - 3. Inā kū like kou kūlana kūloko me ka ʻaoʻao o ka paio āu e ʻōlelo ai, a ʻo kou kūlana σi = -1, a laila vi = +3.
A laila, ala mai ka nīnau, no ke aha i koho ai ʻoe i kekahi manawa i ka ʻaoʻao hewa o ka mea i loko o kou ʻuhane? Hiki paha kēia ma lalo o ke kaomi mai kou kaiapuni. A he postulate keia.
ʻO ka postulate ke hoʻopili ʻia ʻoe e nā hopena ma waho o kou mana. ʻO ka huaʻōlelo aji kahi ʻāpana maoli o ke degere a me ka hōʻailona o ka mana iā ʻoe mai j. ʻO ʻoe ka helu i, a ʻo ka mea nāna e hoʻoikaika iā ʻoe he kanaka helu j. A laila e loaʻa kahi matrix holoʻokoʻa o ia aji.
Hiki paha i kēia kanaka ke hoʻopilikia iā ʻoe. Eia kekahi laʻana, pehea e hiki ai iāʻoe ke wehewehe i ka'ōlelo a kekahi kanaka kālai'āina āu i makemakeʻole ai ma kaʻaoʻao'ē aʻe o ka hakakā. Ke nānā ʻoe i kahi hana a noʻonoʻo: "ʻO kēia pupule, a nānā i kāna ʻōlelo, haʻi wau iā ʻoe he naʻaupō ʻo ia."
Eia naʻe, inā mākou e noʻonoʻo i ka mana o kahi kanaka i pili a i mahalo ʻia e ʻoe, a laila ua lilo ia i hoʻokahi mea pāʻani j ma nā mea pāʻani a pau i. A ua hoʻonui ʻia kēia mana e ka coincidence a i ʻole like ʻole o nā kūlana i hāpai ʻia.
ʻO kēlā mau mea. inā he hōʻailona maikaʻi ka σi, σj, a ma ka manawa like he hōʻailona maikaʻi nō hoʻi ka aji, a laila he hoʻohui kēia i kāu hana lanakila. Inā ʻoe a i ʻole kekahi kanaka koʻikoʻi iā ʻoe i ke kūlana zero, a laila ʻaʻole i loaʻa kēia huaʻōlelo.
No laila, ua ho'āʻo mākou e noʻonoʻo i nā hopena a pau o ka mana kaiaulu.
ʻO ka lae aʻe. Nui nā hiʻohiʻona like ʻole o ka launa pū ʻana, i wehewehe ʻia mai nā ʻaoʻao like ʻole (nā hiʻohiʻona hoʻoholo paepae, nui nā ʻano haole). Nānā lākou i kahi manaʻo maʻamau i ka manaʻo pāʻani i kapa ʻia ʻo Nash equilibrium. Nui ka hauʻoli i kēia manaʻo no nā pāʻani me ka nui o nā poʻe i komo, e like me nā hiʻohiʻona UK a me US i ʻōlelo ʻia ma luna nei, ʻo ia hoʻi he mau miliona o nā kānaka.
Ma kēia kūlana, hele ka hoʻonā kūpono i ka pilikia ma kahi kokoke me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka continuum. ʻO ka helu o nā mea pāʻani kekahi ʻano continuum, kahi pāʻani "kapua", me kahi wahi o nā ʻāpana koʻikoʻi. Aia kekahi manaʻo o nā pāʻani continuum,
"Nā hopena no nā pāʻani non-atomic". He ala kēia e pili ana i ka manaʻo pāʻani cooperative.
ʻAʻohe manaʻo hui like ʻole o nā pāʻani me ka helu continuum o nā mea komo ma ke ʻano he kumumanaʻo. Aia nā papa ʻokoʻa e aʻo ʻia nei, akā ʻaʻole i hoʻokumu ʻia kēia ʻike i manaʻo nui. A ʻo kekahi o nā kumu nui o kona haʻalele ʻana, ʻo ia ka hewa o ka Nash equilibrium. He manaʻo hewa maoli nō.
He aha ka manaʻo kūpono? I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, aia kekahi ʻaelike i hoʻomohala ʻia ka manaʻo i nā hana ʻO Palfrey lāua ʻo McKelvey ʻo ia ke kani "", aiʻole "", e like me kā Zakharov a me aʻu i unuhi ai. No mākou ka unuhi, a no ka mea ʻaʻohe mea nāna i unuhi i ka ʻōlelo Lūkini ma mua o mākou, ua kau mākou i kēia unuhi i ka honua ʻōlelo Lūkini.
ʻO ka mea a mākou i manaʻo ai ma kēia inoa, ʻaʻole pāʻani kēlā me kēia kanaka i kahi hoʻolālā hui, hoʻokani ʻo ia i kahi hoʻolālā maʻemaʻe. Akā, ma kēia "kapua" e kū mai ana kahi i koho ʻia ai kekahi a i ʻole kekahi maʻemaʻe, a i ka pane ʻana, ʻike wau i ke ʻano o ka pāʻani ʻana o ke kanaka, akā ʻaʻole wau ʻike i hea ʻo ia i loko o kēia ao, ʻo ia hoʻi he ʻike huna ma laila, I e ʻike i ke kanaka i loko o ka "kapua" ʻo ia ka mea e hele ai ʻo ia i kekahi ala a i ʻole. He manaʻo helu helu kēia. ʻO ka symbiosis hoʻohui like ʻana o nā physicists a me nā mea hoʻokani pila, me he mea lā iaʻu, e wehewehe i ka manaʻo pāʻani o ke kenekulia 21.
Hoʻomāhuahua mākou i ka ʻike i loaʻa i ka hoʻohālike ʻana i ia mau kūlana me ka ʻikepili kumu kūʻokoʻa a kākau i kahi ʻōnaehana o nā hoohalike e pili ana i ke kaulike o ka pane ʻokoʻa. ʻO ia wale nō, no ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i nā hoʻohālikelike, pono e hana i kahi hoʻohālikelike kūpono o nā kūlana. Akā, aia kēia mau mea ma mua; he kuhikuhi nui kēia i ka ʻepekema.
ʻO ke kaulike pane discrete ka equilibrium a mākou e pāʻani maoli ai maopopo ole me wai. I kēia hihia, hoʻohui ʻia ʻo ε i ka uku mai ka hoʻolālā maʻemaʻe. ʻEkolu mau lanakila, ʻekolu mau helu ʻo ia hoʻi ka "pōlolo" no kekahi ʻaoʻao, "holo" no kēlā ʻaoʻao a pale, a aia ka ε, i hoʻohui ʻia i kēia mau ʻekolu. Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia ka hui ʻana o kēia mau ε. Hiki ke koho ʻia ka hui ʻana he priori wale nō, me ka ʻike ʻana i ka hāʻawi likelika no ε. I kēia hihia, pono e kuhikuhi ʻia nā probabilities o ka hui ʻana e nā koho ponoʻī a ke kanaka, ʻo ia hoʻi, kāna mau loiloi o nā poʻe ʻē aʻe a me nā kuhi o ko lākou mau probabilities. ʻO kēia kūlike like ka mea kaulike o ka pane ʻokoʻa. E hoʻi mākou i kēia wahi.
Formalization ma o discrete pane equilibrium
Eia ke ʻano o nā lanakila ma kēia kükohu:
E hōʻiliʻili ʻo ia i loko o nā bracket i nā mana āpau e ʻike ʻia ma luna ou inā ua koho ʻoe i kekahi ʻaoʻao, a i ʻole e hoʻonui ʻia me ka ʻole inā ʻaʻole ʻoe i koho i kekahi ʻaoʻao. Eia hou me ka hoailona “+” ina σ1 = 1, a me ka hoailona “-” ina σ1 = -1. A hoʻohui ʻia ʻo ε i kēia. ʻO ia hoʻi, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka σi i kou mokuʻāina kūloko, a me nā poʻe a pau e hoʻoikaika iā ʻoe.
I ka manawa like, hiki i kahi kanaka kikoʻī ke hoʻoikaika i nā miliona o ka poʻe, e like me nā pilikino media, nā mea hana, a i ʻole ka pelekikena i hoʻoikaika i nā miliona o nā kānaka. ʻIke ʻia he ʻano asymmetrical ka influence matrix; hiki ke loaʻa iā ia ka nui o nā helu helu ʻole, a ma ka pae ākea, mai 200 miliona mau kānaka ma ka ʻāina, no ka laʻana, 100 mau helu helu ʻole. No nā mea a pau, ʻo kēia loaʻa ka huina o nā huaʻōlelo liʻiliʻi, akā ʻo ka aij (ka mana o ke kanaka ma luna o kekahi) hiki ke lilo i zero no ka helu nui j, a ʻo ka mana o ka aji (ka mana o kekahi i ke kanaka) ʻaʻole pēlā. nui, ʻoi aku ka palena i hoʻokahi haneli. ʻO kēia kahi e puka mai ai kahi asymmetry nui loa.
Nā laʻana o nā mea komo pūnaewele
Ua ho'āʻo mākou e wehewehe i ka ʻikepili mua o ke kŘkohu ma nā ʻōlelo sociological. No ka laʻana, ʻo wai ka "conformist careerist"? He kanaka kēia i komo ʻole i loko o ka hakakā, akā aia kekahi poʻe i hoʻoikaika nui iā ia, no ka laʻana, ka luna.
Hiki ke wānana i ke ʻano o kāna koho e pili ana i ke koho ʻana o ka luna i kekahi equilibrium.
Eia kekahi, ʻo ka "passionary" he kanaka me ka manaʻo paʻa o loko ma ka ʻaoʻao o ka hakakā.
Nui kona aij, ʻaʻole like me ka mana mua, kahi nui o ka aji.
Eia kekahi, ʻo ka "autist" kahi kanaka i komo ʻole i nā pāʻani. Kokoke kona mau manaʻoʻiʻo i ka ʻole, ʻaʻohe mea e hoʻohuli iā ia.
A ʻo ka mea hope loa, ʻo ka "fanatic" he kanaka nāna ʻaʻohe kanaka ʻaʻole pili.
ʻAʻole pololei paha nā huaʻōlelo o kēia manawa mai ka manaʻo linguistic, akā aia nā hana e hana ʻia ma kēia ʻaoʻao.
Hōʻike kēia, e like me ka "passionary," ʻoi aku ka nui o kāna vi ma mua o ka zero, akā ʻo ka aji = 0. E ʻoluʻolu e hoʻomaopopo i ka "passionary" hiki ke lilo i "fanatic" i ka manawa like.
Manaʻo mākou he mea nui i loko o ia mau nodes ka mea e hoʻoholo ai ka "passionary / fanatic", no ka mea e laha kēia hoʻoholo e like me ke ao. Akā ʻaʻole kēia ʻike, akā he manaʻo wale nō. I kēia manawa ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke hoʻoponopono i kēia pilikia ma kahi kokoke.
A he TV kekahi. He aha ka TV? He hoʻololi kēia i kou moku'āina i loko, he ʻano "magnetic field".
Eia kekahi, hiki ke ʻokoʻa ka mana o ka TV, i ka ʻokoʻa i ka "magnetic field" kino ma luna o nā "molekole kaiaulu," hiki ke ʻokoʻa i ka nui a me ka hōʻailona.
Hiki iaʻu ke pani i ka TV me ka Pūnaewele?
Akā, ʻo ka Pūnaewele ke kumu hoʻohālike o ka launa pū ʻana e pono e kūkākūkā ʻia. E kapa mākou he kumu waho, inā ʻaʻole no ka ʻike, a laila no kekahi ʻano walaʻau.
E wehewehe kākou i ʻekolu kumu hoʻolālā no σi=0, σi=1, σi=-1:
Pehea ka launa pū ʻana? I ka hoʻomaka ʻana, ʻo nā mea komo a pau he "kapua", a ʻo kēlā me kēia kanaka wale nō ka ʻike e pili ana i nā mea ʻē aʻe he "kapua" kēia, a manaʻo ʻo ia i ka mahele mua o kēia mau "pua". I ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke kanaka kikoʻī e launa pū, aʻo ʻo ia e pili ana iā ia iho i ka triple ε holoʻokoʻa, ʻo ia hoʻi. kahi kikoʻī, a i ka manawa e hoʻoholo ai ke kanaka e hāʻawi iā ia i ka helu nui (o nā mea i hoʻohui ʻia ʻo ε i nā lanakila, koho ʻo ia i ka mea i ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o nā mea ʻelua), ʻaʻole ʻike ke koena i ka helu. aia ʻo ia, no laila ʻaʻole hiki iā lākou ke wānana .
A laila, koho ke kanaka (σi=0/ σi=1/ σi=-1), a no ke koho ʻana, pono ʻo ia e ʻike i ka σj no nā mea ʻē aʻe. E hoʻolohe kākou i ka pāpaʻi, aia i loko o ka pākuʻi he ʻōlelo [∑ j ≠ i aji σj], ʻo ia hoʻi. he mea i ike ole ke kanaka. Pono ʻo ia e wānana i kēia ma ke kaulike, akā i ke kaulike ʻaʻole ʻo ia e ʻike i ka σj ma nā helu, ʻike ʻo ia iā lākou he mau probabilities.
ʻO kēia ke kumu o ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o ka equilibrium pane discrete a me ka equilibrium Nash. Pono ke kanaka e wānana i nā probabilities, no laila ke ala mai nei kahi ʻōnaehana o nā kaulike like probability. E noʻonoʻo kākou i kahi ʻōnaehana hoʻohālikelike no 100 miliona mau kānaka, e hoʻonui i kekahi 2. no ka mea aia ke koho ʻana i ka "+", kahi kūpono o ke koho ʻana i "-" (ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia ka haʻalele ʻana i waho, no ka mea, ʻo kēia ka kahi ʻāpana hilinaʻi). ʻO ka hopena, aia he 200 miliona mau hoʻololi. A me 200 miliona mau hoohalike. He mea kūpono ʻole ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i kēia. A ʻaʻole hiki ke hōʻiliʻili pololei i ia ʻike.
Akā, haʻi mai ka poʻe sociologists iā mākou: "E kali, e nā hoaaloha, e haʻi mākou iā ʻoe pehea e typologize i ka ʻoihana." Nīnau lākou i ka nui o nā pilikia e hiki iā mākou ke hoʻoponopono. Ke ʻōlelo nei au, e hoʻoponopono mau mākou i nā hoʻohālikelike 50, hiki i ke kamepiula ke hoʻoponopono i kahi ʻōnaehana kahi he 50 mau hoʻohālikelike, ʻoiai ʻo 100 he mea ʻole. ʻŌlelo lākou ʻaʻohe pilikia. A laila, nalo lākou, ka poʻe palaka.
Loaʻa iā mākou kahi hālāwai i hoʻonohonoho ʻia me nā psychologists a me nā sociologists mai HSE, ʻōlelo lākou hiki iā mākou ke kākau i kahi papahana kipi holomua, kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike, kā lākou ʻikepili. ʻAʻole lākou i hele mai.
Inā makemake ʻoe e nīnau mai iaʻu no ke aha e hana ʻino ai nā mea āpau, e haʻi aku wau iā ʻoe, no ka mea, ʻaʻole hele mai nā psychologists a me sociologists i kā mākou mau hālāwai. Inā mākou e hui pū, neʻe mākou i nā mauna.
ʻO ka hopena, pono ke kanaka e koho mai ʻekolu mau hoʻolālā hiki, akā ʻaʻole hiki, no ka mea ʻaʻole ʻo ia i ʻike i ka σj. A laila hoʻololi mākou i ka σj i nā probabilities.
Loaʻa i loko o ke kaulike pane ʻokoʻa
Me ka σj ʻike ʻole mākou e hoʻololi i ka ʻokoʻa o nā mea hiki ke lawe kekahi kanaka i kekahi a i ʻole kekahi ʻaoʻao i ka hakakā. Ke ʻike mākou i ka vector ε a mākou e hele ai i kēlā lae ma kahi ākea ʻekolu. Ma kēia mau wahi (winnings) ʻike ʻia nā "clouds", a hiki iā mākou ke hoʻohui iā lākou a ʻike i ke kaumaha o kēlā me kēia 3 "clouds".
ʻO ka hopena, ʻike mākou i nā probabilities mai kahi mea nānā waho e koho kekahi kanaka i kēia a i ʻole ma mua o kona ʻike ʻana i kona kūlana maoli. ʻO ia hoʻi, he kumu kēia e hāʻawi i kona p ponoʻī e pane i ka ʻike o nā p ʻē aʻe a pau. A hiki ke kākau ʻia kēlā ʻano kumu no kēlā me kēia i a waiho ʻia kahi ʻōnaehana o nā hoohalike i kamaʻāina i ka poʻe i hana i nā hiʻohiʻona Ising a me Potz. Ua ʻōlelo paʻa ka physics helu ʻaij = aji, ʻaʻole hiki ke ʻano like ʻole ka pilina.
Akā aia kekahi mau "hana mana" ma ʻaneʻi. ʻO nā "manamana" makemakika ʻo ia ka mea i hoʻohālikelike ʻia nā ʻōkuhi me nā ʻōkuhi mai nā hiʻohiʻona helu e pili ana, ʻoiai ʻaʻohe ʻano pāʻani pāʻani, akā aia kahi hana i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma nā ʻano ʻokoʻa like ʻole.
Me ka ʻikepili kumu kūʻokoʻa, hana ke kŘkohu me he mea lā e ʻimi nei kekahi i kekahi mea i loko. Ua kapa ʻia kēlā mau hiʻohiʻona he "pāʻani hiki" ke kamaʻilio mākou e pili ana i ka equilibrium Nash. Ke hoʻolālā ʻia ka pāʻani ma ke ʻano e hoʻoholo ʻia ai ʻo Nash equilibria ma ka hoʻonui ʻana i kekahi mau hana ma kahi o nā koho āpau. He aha ka mea hiki i loko o ke kaulike o ka pane ʻokoʻa ʻaʻole i hoʻokumu hope ʻia. (ʻOiai hiki iā Fyodor Sandomirsky ke pane i kēia nīnau.
ʻO kēia ke ʻano o ka ʻōnaehana piha o nā hoohalike:
ʻO nā probabilities āu e koho ai i kēia a i ʻole kēlā me ka wānana no ʻoe. Ua like ka manaʻo me ka Nash equilibrium, akā ua hoʻokō ʻia ma o nā probabilities.
ʻO kahi puʻunaue kūikawā ε, ʻo ia hoʻi ka puʻunaue Gumbel, kahi kiko paʻa no ka lawe ʻana i ka nui o nā helu kūʻokoʻa kūʻokoʻa.
Loaʻa ka puʻunaue maʻamau ma o ka ʻawelika ʻana i ka nui o nā ʻokoʻa kūʻokoʻa kūʻokoʻa me ka ʻokoʻa i loko o nā waiwai e ʻae ʻia. A inā mākou e lawe i ka palena nui mai kahi nui o nā ʻokoʻa kūʻokoʻa kūʻokoʻa, loaʻa iā mākou kahi mahele kūikawā.
Ma ke ala, ua haʻalele ka hoʻohālikelike i ka ʻāpana o ka chaos i nā hoʻoholo i hana ʻia, λ, poina iaʻu e kākau.
ʻO ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i kēia haʻihaʻi e kōkua iā ʻoe e hoʻomaopopo pehea e hui pū ai i kahi hui. Ma ka ʻaoʻao theoretical, ka hiki o nā pāʻani mai ka manaʻo o ka hoʻohālikelike pane discrete.
Pono ʻoe e hoʻāʻo i ka pakuhi kaiapili maoli, nona nā ʻano waiwai ʻē aʻe:
- liʻiliʻi anawaena;
- kānāwai mana o ka māhele ʻana o nā degere o nā vertices;
- kiʻekiʻe clustering.
ʻO ia hoʻi, hiki iā ʻoe ke hoʻāʻo e kākau hou i nā waiwai o kahi ʻoihana pūnaewele maoli i loko o kēia kumu hoʻohālike. ʻAʻohe mea i hoʻāʻo i kēia manawa, malia paha e holo mai kekahi mea ia manawa.
I kēia manawa hiki iaʻu ke hoʻāʻo e pane i kāu mau nīnau. Ma ka liʻiliʻi hiki iaʻu ke hoʻolohe pono iā lākou.
Pehea e wehewehe ai i ke ʻano o Brexit a me nā koho balota US?
No laila ʻo ia. ʻAʻole wehewehe kēia i kekahi mea. Akā hāʻawi ia i kahi hōʻailona no ke kumu e hewa mau ai ka poʻe koho balota i kā lākou wānana. Ma muli o ka pane ʻana o ka poʻe i ka mea e koi ai ko lākou kaiāulu iā lākou e pane, akā ma kahi pilikino lākou e koho ai i ko lākou manaʻoʻiʻo i loko. A inā hiki iā mākou ke hoʻoholo i kēia hoʻohālikelike, ʻo ka mea e loaʻa i loko o ka hopena ka mea i hāʻawi ʻia e ka noiʻi sociological iā mākou, a ʻo vi ka mea e hiki ke koho.
A i loko o kēia kŘkohu, hiki ke noʻonoʻo ʻaʻole he kanaka, akā he stratum kaiapuni ma ke ʻano he kumu kaʻawale?
ʻO kēia kaʻu e makemake ai e hana. ʻAʻole naʻe mākou ʻike i ke ʻano o ka nohona pili kanaka. ʻO ia ke kumu e hoʻāʻo nei mākou e hoʻomau me nā sociologists a me nā psychologists.
Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia kāu kumu hoʻohālike e wehewehe i ke ʻano o nā ʻano pilikia pilikanaka i ʻike ʻia ma Rusia? E ʻae kākou i ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o nā hopena o nā ʻoihana kūhelu?
ʻAʻole, ʻaʻole ʻo ia ka mea e pili ana. E pili ana kēia i ka hakakā ma waena o nā kānaka. Manaʻo wau ʻaʻole hiki ke wehewehe ʻia ka pilikia o nā ʻoihana ma ʻaneʻi. Ma kēia kumuhana, loaʻa iaʻu koʻu manaʻo ponoʻī he paʻakikī loa nā ʻoihana i hana ʻia e ke kanaka, ʻaʻole hiki iā lākou ke mālama i kēlā ʻano paʻakikī a e koi ʻia e hoʻohaʻahaʻa. ʻO kēia koʻu hoʻomaopopo ʻana i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo.
Hiki paha ke aʻo i ke ʻano o ka polarization o ke kaiāulu? Ua loaʻa iā ʻoe i loko o kēia, pehea ka maikaʻi o kēlā me kēia...
ʻAʻole maoli, he TV kā mākou ma laila, v+h. He statics hoʻohālikelike kēia.
ʻAe, akā hele mālie ka polarization. ʻO kaʻu e ʻōlelo nei, ʻo ke komo ʻana i ka nohona me kahi kūlana ikaika he 10% v-maikaʻi, 6% v-negative, a ke piʻi nui nei ke ākea ma waena o kēia mau waiwai.
ʻAʻole maopopo iaʻu ka mea e hiki mai ana i ka dynamics. I ka dynamics pololei, ʻike ʻia, e lawe ʻo v i nā waiwai o ka σ mua. Akā ʻaʻole maopopo iaʻu inā e hana kēia hopena. ʻAʻohe panacea, ʻaʻohe kumu hoʻohālike o ke ao holoʻokoʻa. ʻO kēia hiʻohiʻona kekahi hiʻohiʻona e kōkua paha. Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei au inā e hoʻoponopono mākou i kēia pilikia, e ʻike mākou i ka ʻokoʻa ʻana o nā koho balota mai ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o ke koho balota. Nui ka haunaele ma ka nohona. ʻO ke ana ʻana i kekahi ʻāpana hāʻawi i nā hopena like ʻole.
He pili anei kēia me ka manaʻo pāʻani matrix maʻamau?
He mau pāʻani matrix kēia. ʻO ia wale nō ka nui o nā matrices ma aneʻi he 200 miliona a 200 miliona. He pāʻani kēia o kēlā me kēia me nā mea āpau, ua kākau ʻia ka matrix ma ke ʻano he hana. Hoʻopili ʻia kēia me nā pāʻani matrix e like me kēia: ʻo nā pāʻani matrix nā pāʻani o ʻelua mau kānaka, akā eia ke pāʻani nei he 200 miliona. No laila, he tensor kēia nona ka nui o 200 miliona. ʻAʻole ia he matrix, akā he cube me kahi ana. o 200 miliona. Akā, noʻonoʻo lākou i kahi manaʻo maʻamau o kahi hopena.
Aia kekahi manaʻo o ke kumukūʻai o kahi pāʻani?
Hiki ke kumu kūʻai o ka pāʻani ma kahi pāʻani antagonistic o nā mea pāʻani ʻelua, ʻo ia. me ka huina ole. ʻO kēia olepāʻani antagonistic o ka nui o nā mea pāʻani. Ma kahi o ke kumukūʻai o ka pāʻani, aia nā uku kaulike, ʻaʻole i ka equilibrium Nash, akā i loko o ka equilibrium pane discrete.
Pehea e pili ana i ka manaʻo o ka "hoʻolālā"?
ʻO nā hoʻolālā, 0, -1, 1. Mai ka manaʻo kuʻuna o Nash-Bayes equilibrium, equilibrium. A i kēia hihia kūikawā, hoʻokumu ʻia ka equilibrium Bayes-Nash i ka ʻikepili mai kahi pāʻani maʻamau. ʻO kēia ka hopena i kahi hui i kapa ʻia ʻo discrete response equilibrium. A mamao loa kēia mai nā pāʻani matrix o ke kenekulia XNUMX.
Ke kānalua nei hiki iā ʻoe ke hana i kekahi mea me ka miliona mau mea pāʻani ...
ʻO kēia ka nīnau pehea e hui pū ai i ka hui; ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻoponopono i kahi pāʻani me nā mea pāʻani he nui, pololei ʻoe.
Moʻolelo e pili ana i nā wahi pili i ka helu physics a me ka sociology
- ʻO Dorogovtsev SN, Goltsev AV, a me Mendes JFF Nā hanana koʻikoʻi i loko o nā pūnaewele paʻakikī // Nā Manaʻo o nā Physics Modern. 2008. Puke. 80. pp. 1275-1335.
- Lawrence E. Blume, Steven Durlauf Equilibrium Concepts for Social Interaction Models // International Game Theory Review. 2003. Puke. 5, (3). pp. 193-209.
- ʻO Gordon MB et. al., Nā Koho Hoʻokaʻawale ma lalo o ka Manaʻo Kaiapili: Generic Perspectives // Nā Models Matematika a me nā ʻano hana ma ka ʻepekema noiʻi. 2009. Puke. 19. pp. 1441-1381.
- Bouchaud J.-P. ʻO nā pilikia a me ka hui ʻana o ka Socio-Economic Phenomena: Nā ʻano hoʻohālike maʻalahi a me nā pilikia // Journal of Static Physics. 2013. Puke. 51(3). pp. 567-606.
- Sornette D. Physics and financial economics (1776—2014): puzzles, lsing, and agent-based models // Reports on Progress in Physics. 2014. Puke. 77, (6). pp. 1-287
Hiki i nā mea hoʻohana i hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻia ke komo i ka noiʻi. , e 'oluʻolu.
(no ka laʻana) ʻO kou kūlana e pili ana iā Igor Sysoev:
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62,1%+1 (e komo i ka hakakā ma ka ʻaoʻao o Igor Sysoev)175
-
1,4%-1 (e komo i ka hakakā ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe)4
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28,7%0 (hōʻole e komo i ka hakakā)81
-
7,8%e hoʻohana i ka paio no ka pono pilikino22
282 mea hoʻohana i koho. Ua hōʻole nā mea hoʻohana 63.
Source: www.habr.com