Ma waena o ka poʻe heluhelu i kēia kikokikona, ʻoiaʻiʻo, he nui nā loea. A, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻike maikaʻi nā kānaka a pau i kā lākou mau kula a loaʻa iā lākou kahi loiloi maikaʻi i nā manaʻo o nā ʻenehana like ʻole a me kā lākou ulu ʻana. Ma ka manawa like, ʻike ka mōʻaukala (ʻo ia ka mea "aʻo ʻole ʻaʻohe mea") ʻike i nā hiʻohiʻona he nui i ka wā i hana wiwo ʻole ai ka poʻe loea i nā wānana ʻokoʻa a hala ʻole i kahi palena nui loa:
- "He nui nā hemahema o ke kelepona no ka noʻonoʻo nui ʻia ʻana ma ke ʻano o ke kamaʻilio ʻana. ʻAʻohe waiwai o ka mea hana iā mākou, "i kākau ai ka poʻe loea. , a laila ka hui telegarapa nui loa i ka makahiki 1876.
- "ʻAʻohe mea e hiki mai ana ka radio. ʻAʻole hiki i nā mokulele ʻoi aku ke kaumaha ma mua o ka lewa. E lilo nā X-ray i mea hoʻopunipuni, "wahi āna i ka makahiki 1899, a hiki i kekahi ke hoʻohenehene i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o nā ʻepekema Pelekania i ke kenekulia XNUMX, akā e ana mākou i ka mahana ma Kelvin no ka manawa lōʻihi, a ʻaʻohe kumu e kānalua ai he maikaʻi ka haku hanohano. physicist.
- "ʻO wai ka pō e makemake e lohe i nā mea keaka e kamaʻilio?" wahi a nā kamaʻilio , nāna i hoʻokumu iā Warner Brothers i ka makahiki 1927, kekahi o nā loea kiʻiʻoniʻoni nui o ia manawa.
- "ʻAʻohe kumu e makemake ai kekahi i kahi kamepiula home," , ka mea nāna i hoʻokumu i ka Digital Equipment Corporation ma 1977, ma mua koke o ka haʻalele ʻana o nā kamepiula home ...
- I kēia mau lā, ʻaʻohe mea i loli: "ʻAʻohe manawa e loaʻa i ka iPhone ka mahele mākeke nui," kākau ʻo Microsoft CEO ma USA Today i ʻApelila 2007 ma mua o ka piʻi lanakila ʻana o nā smartphones.
Hiki i kekahi ke ʻakaʻaka hauʻoli i kēia mau wānana inā ʻaʻole i kuhi hewa ʻole kāu kauā haʻahaʻa ma kāna kahua. A inā ʻaʻole wau i ʻike i ka nui o ka nui, nui ka poʻe akamai i kuhihewa. Ma keʻano laulā, aia kahi kūlana "ʻaʻole i hana mua kēia, a eia hou." A hou. A hou. Eia kekahi, nā loea a me nā loea poino i na hewa I nā manawa he nui. ʻOi loa i ka wā e pili ana i kēlā mau kaʻina exponential pōʻino.
Auē, kēia mea hōʻike
ʻO ka pilikia mua me nā kaʻina hana exponential ʻo ia ka ʻike i ka wikiwiki o ka ulu ʻana (ma ka manawa like o ka manawa e hoʻololi ai ko lākou mau palena i ka helu like o nā manawa), ma ka pae o kēlā me kēia lā he paʻakikī loa ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i kēlā ulu. He laʻana maʻamau: inā e neʻe mākou i hoʻokahi kapuaʻi i mua, a laila ma 30 mau kapuaʻi e hele mākou i 30 mika, akā inā e ulu nui kēlā me kēia ʻanuʻu, a laila ma 30 mau ʻanuʻu e pōʻai mākou i ka honua i 26 manawa ("Twenty-six times, Karl!!! ”) ma ka equator:
Source:
Nīnau no nā polokalamu polokalamu: he aha ka mea mau a mākou e hāpai ai i kahi mana i kēia hihia?
ʻO ka paneUa like ka mea mau me 2, i.e. papalua i kēlā me kēia ʻanuʻu.
Ke ulu nui ke kaʻina hana, loaʻa ia i nā loli nui wikiwiki i ʻike maopopo ʻia e ka maka ʻōlohelohe. Hāʻawi ʻia kahi laʻana maikaʻi loa e . I ka makahiki 1900, ma Fifth Avenue ma New York, he mea paʻakikī ke ʻike aku i kahi kaʻa mehameha ma waena o nā kaʻa huki lio.
A he 13 mau makahiki ma hope mai, ma ke alanui hoʻokahi, ʻaʻole hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻike i kahi kaʻa lio hoʻokahi i waena o nā kaʻa:
ʻIke mākou i kahi kiʻi like, no ka laʻana, me nā smartphones. ʻO Nokia, ka mea i holo i hoʻokahi nalu a ʻo ia ke alakaʻi no ka manawa lōʻihi ma kahi ākea ākea, akā ʻaʻole hiki ke komo i loko o ka nalu aʻe a aneane nalowale ka mākeke (nānā me nā alakaʻi mākeke ma ka makahiki) he mea aʻo nui.
Ua ʻike nā loea kamepiula āpau , i hana maoli ʻia no nā transistors a ua ʻoiaʻiʻo no 40 mau makahiki. Hoʻolahalaha kekahi mau hoa iā ia i nā paipu maloʻo a me nā mea hana mechanical a ʻōlelo ʻia ua hana ia no 120 mau makahiki. He mea maʻalahi ke hōʻike i nā kaʻina hana exponential me ka pālākiō logarithmic, kahi e lilo ai lākou (kokoke) laina a maopopo ke kuleana o ia ʻano laulā:
Source: ʻO kēia a me nā pakuhi ʻelua mai
Ma ka laina laina, ʻike ʻia ka ulu ʻana e like me kēia:
A eia mākou e hoʻokokoke mālie i ka lua o ka hoʻohālua o nā kaʻina exponential. Inā pēlā ka ulu ʻana no nā makahiki 120, ʻo ia ke ʻano o kā mākou helu exponential e mau nō ia no nā makahiki he 10 aʻe?
Ma ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻike ʻia ʻaʻole. Ma kona ʻano maʻemaʻe, ua lohi ka ulu ʻana o ka helu helu no nā makahiki he nui i kēia manawa, e hiki ai iā mākou ke kamaʻilio e pili ana i ka "make o ke kānāwai o Moore":
Source:
Eia kekahi, he mea hoihoi ia ʻaʻole hiki i kēia pihi ke hoʻopololei wale, akā ke piʻi pū me ka ikaika hou. Kau kauwa haahaa . ʻAe, aia nā helu ʻē aʻe (nā neural network pololei ʻole), akā i ka hopena, inā ua hoʻonui ʻia ka abacus a me nā calculators mechanical i ka pālākiō i 120 mau makahiki, a laila kūpono nā neural accelerators ma laila. Eia naʻe, hoʻokaʻawale mākou.
He mea nui e maopopo i kēlā hiki ke ho'ōki i ka ulu ʻana ma muli o nā kumu ʻenehana, kino, waiwai a me ka pilikanaka (ʻaʻole i piha ka papa inoa). A ʻo kēia ka lua o ka hoʻohālua nui ʻana i nā kaʻina hana exponential - e wānana pololei i ka manawa e hoʻomaka ai ka pihi e haʻalele i ka exponential. He mea maʻamau ka hewa ma nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua ma ʻaneʻi.
Hōʻuluʻulu:
- ʻO ka hoʻohālua mua o ka ulu ʻana o ka exponential ʻo ia ka ulu ʻana o ka mea hōʻailona me ka wikiwiki ʻole no nā loea. A ʻo ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana i ka exponential he kuhi kuʻuna i hana pinepine ʻia. E like me ka ʻōlelo a ka poʻe ʻoihana koʻikoʻi maoli i 100 mau makahiki i hala aku nei: "ʻO nā kaʻa, nā keonimana, he ʻano hana, akā mau ka lio!"
- ʻO ka lua o ka pilikia me ka ulu ʻana o ka exponential, ʻo ia ma kekahi manawa (i kekahi manawa ma hope o 40 a i ʻole 120 mau makahiki) pau ia, a ʻaʻole maʻalahi hoʻi e wānana pololei i ka wā e pau ai. A ʻo ke kānāwai ʻo Moore, i ka wā i make ai ka nui o nā mea nūpepa loea i waiho i kā lākou mau paʻi maiuu, . A ʻaʻole lawa ia!
Nā kaʻina hana exponential a me ka hopu mākeke
Inā mākou e kamaʻilio e pili ana i nā loli i ʻike ʻia a puni mākou a me ka mākeke, he mea hoihoi ke ʻike i ka lanakila ʻana o nā ʻenehana like ʻole i ka mākeke. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hana ʻana i kēia me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka laʻana o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, kahi i ʻoi aku ma mua o 100 mau makahiki i mālama pono ʻia nā ʻano ʻano helu mākeke.
Source:
He mea hoihoi a hoʻonaʻauao ke ʻike i ka ulu mālie ʻana o ka māhele o nā hale me nā kelepona uwea, a laila hāʻule loa i ka hapaha o nā makahiki. . Ua ulu pū ka hapa o nā hale me ka uila, akā hāʻule nui loa: ʻaʻole mākaukau nā kānaka e haʻalele i ka uila, ʻoiai ʻaʻole lawa ke kālā. A ʻo ka hoʻolaha ʻana o ka lekiō home ʻaʻole i ʻike i ka pilikia nui o ka hoʻokele waiwai; makemake nā mea a pau i ka nūhou hou. A, ʻaʻole like me ke kelepona, ka uila a me ke kaʻa, ʻaʻohe uku o ka lekiō no ka hoʻohana ʻana. Ma ke ala, ua hoʻihoʻi ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o nā kaʻa pilikino, kahi i hoʻopau ʻia e ka Great Depression, ma hope o 20 mau makahiki, ua hoʻihoʻi ʻia nā kelepona ʻāina ma hope o 10 mau makahiki, a me ka electrification o nā hale - ma hope o 5.
Ua ʻike maopopo ʻia ua ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻolaha ʻana o nā ea, nā umu microwave, nā kamepiula a me nā smartphones ma mua o ka laha ʻana o nā ʻenehana hou ma mua. Mai ka mahele o 10% a 70%, ulu pinepine i loko o 10 mau makahiki wale nō. ʻOi aku ka nui o nā makahiki he 40 a ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi o ka huli ʻana o ke kenekulia e hoʻokō i ka ulu like. Manaʻo i ka ʻokoʻa!
He mea ʻakaʻaka no ka mea kākau ponoʻī. E noʻonoʻo i ka ulu ʻana o nā mīkini holoi a me nā mea maloʻo lole mai ka makahiki 60. He mea ʻakaʻaka ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia nā mea hope i waena o mākou. A inā ma USA, mai kekahi manawa mai, ua kūʻai pinepine ʻia lākou i ʻelua, a laila nīnau pinepine kā mākou mau malihini i ka nīnau: "No ke aha ʻoe e makemake ai i ʻelua mīkini holoi?" Pono ʻoe e pane me ka nānā koʻikoʻi i ka mālama ʻana o ka lua, inā e haki ka mea mua.
E nānā pū i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā mīkini holoi. I kēlā manawa, ua laha loa nā laundromats lehulehu, kahi e hiki ai iā ʻoe ke hele mai, e hoʻouka i ka lole i loko o ka mīkini, holoi a haʻalele. Māmā. Maʻa mau nā mea like ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. He laʻana kēia o kahi kūlana kahi e hoʻololi ai ke ʻano ʻoihana o kahi mākeke kikoʻī i ka helu komo ʻana o ka ʻenehana a me ke ʻano kūʻai aku (kūʻai maikaʻi ʻia nā mīkini hōʻino ʻoihana ʻoihana).
ʻO ka wikiwiki o nā kaʻina hana i ʻike nui ʻia i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, i ka wā i lilo ai ka nui o ke komo ʻana o nā ʻenehana i "wikiwiki" e nā kūlana o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke kenekulia 20 (i nā makahiki 5-7):
Source: (He paʻi kiʻi ma ka loulou!)
I ka manawa like, ʻo ka piʻi wikiwiki ʻana o kekahi ʻenehana pinepine i ka hāʻule o kekahi. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ka lekiō i manaʻo ʻia ke kaomi ʻana i ka mākeke nūpepa, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o nā umu microwave i hōʻemi i ka noi no nā umu kinoea, etc. I kekahi manawa, ʻoi aku ka pololei o ka hoʻokūkū, no ka laʻana, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o nā mea hoʻopaʻa leo cassette i hoʻemi nui i ka noi no nā moʻolelo vinyl, a ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o nā CD i hōʻemi i ka noi no nā cassette. A ua luku ʻo torrent iā lākou āpau me ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻoili mele mele, hāʻule nā loaʻa o ka ʻoihana ma mua o 2 mau manawa (ua hoʻopuni ʻia ka pakuhi e kahi kiʻi ʻeleʻele kanikau):
Source:
Pēlā nō, ke ulu nui nei ka nui o nā kiʻi i paʻi ʻia, ʻo ia hoʻi, i kēia manawa me ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke kikohoʻe, ua piʻi nui ka ulu. No laila, ʻo ka "make" o nā kiʻi analogue he "wikiwiki" e nā kūlana mōʻaukala:
Source:
Piha i ke keaka , ka mea nāna i hoʻokumu i ka pahupaʻikiʻi kikohoʻe a hala i ka piʻi nui ʻana o ke kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi, he mea aʻo loa. Akā ʻo ka mea nui a ka mōʻaukala e aʻo ai, ʻaʻole ia e aʻo i kekahi mea. No laila, e hana hou ke kūlana. Inā manaʻoʻiʻo ʻoe i ka ʻikepili - me ka wikiwiki.
Hōʻuluʻulu:
- Hiki ke loaʻa ka pōmaikaʻi wānana ma ke aʻo ʻana i ka wikiwiki a me ka deceleration o nā mākeke i nā makahiki he 100 i hala.
- Ke piʻi nei ka nui o ka hana hou ma ka awelika, ʻo ia hoʻi e piʻi aʻe ka helu o nā wānana wahaheʻe. Akahele…
E hele kāua e hoʻomaʻamaʻa
ʻO ʻoe, ʻoiaʻiʻo, e noʻonoʻo ʻoe he mea maʻalahi kēia a pau, hiki ke hoʻomaopopo ʻia, a, ma ka laulā, ʻaʻole paʻakikī loa ka lawe ʻana i kēia mau mea āpau i nā wānana. Makehewa ʻoe... Ke hoʻomaka nei ka leʻaleʻa... Buckle up?
ʻO ka mea i hala koke nei, ua haʻi ʻo Igor Sechin, ka luna hoʻokele o Rosneft, ma St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, kahi i ʻōlelo ai ʻo ia: "" Ke kanalua nei paha kekahi he akamai ʻo Sechin i kāna ʻoihana? Manaʻo wau ʻaʻole.
I ka manawa like, i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua ulu ka māhele o ka ikehu ʻokoʻa ma kahi o 1% i kēlā me kēia makahiki, a ua wikiwiki ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻāpana:
Source: (Ua koho ʻia ke ʻano o ka helu ʻana - me ka ʻole o ka hydropower nui, ʻoiai ʻo ia ka hopena i ka 12%) i kēia manawa.
A laila - he pilikia no ka papa 3. Aia kekahi waiwai i ka 2017 i like me 12% a ke ulu nei e 1% i kēlā me kēia makahiki. I ka makahiki hea e hiki ai i ka 16%? I ka makahiki 2040? Ua noʻonoʻo pono anei ʻoe, e kuʻu hoa ʻōpio? E hoʻomaopopo ma ka pane ʻana i "ma 2021" ke hana nei mākou i ka hewa maʻamau o ka hana ʻana i kahi wānana laina. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ke ʻano exponential o ke kaʻina hana a hana i nā wānana maʻamau ʻekolu:
- "optimistic" i hāʻawi ʻia i ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻomohala ʻana,
- "average" - e pili ana i ka manaʻo e like ka ulu ulu ʻana me ka makahiki maikaʻi loa i nā makahiki 5 i hala.
- a me ka "pessimistic" - e pili ana i ka manaʻo o ka ulu ʻana ma ka awelika e like me ka makahiki ʻino loa i nā makahiki 5 i hala.
Eia kekahi, e like me ka wanana awelika, 16.1% e hoʻokō ʻia i 2020, ʻo ia hoʻi. makahiki aʻe:
Puna: helu a ka mea kākau
No ka hoʻomaopopo maikaʻi ʻana (no nā kaʻina exponential), hōʻike mākou i nā kiʻi like ma ka pālākiō logarithmic:
Hōʻike lākou he ʻano maʻamau ke ʻano maʻamau, ʻoiai inā ʻoe e nānā iā ia mai 2007. Ma ka huina, e hoʻokō ʻia ka waiwai i wānana ʻia no 2040 i ka makahiki aʻe, a i ʻole ka hapa nui o ka makahiki.
No ka pololei, ʻaʻole ʻo Sechin wale nō ka "kuhihewa" e like me kēia. No ka laʻana, hana nā limahana aila ʻo BP (British Petroleum) i kahi wānana makahiki, a ke hoʻoweliweli ʻia nei lākou, i ka hana ʻana i nā wānana no nā makahiki, ʻaʻole lākou e noʻonoʻo i ka exponentiality o ke kaʻina ("Derivative? No, ʻaʻole ʻoe i lohe!"). No laila, pono lākou e hoʻokiʻekiʻe i kā lākou wānana i kēlā me kēia makahiki no nā makahiki he nui:
Source:
Kokoke aku i nā wanana Sechin (nā pāʻina me nā mea hana aila kaumaha, e nānā i nā paipu ma ke kumu o ka māhele Lūkini o ka pūnaewele). ʻAʻole lākou e noʻonoʻo i ke ʻano exponential o ke kaʻina hana, e alakaʻi ana i he kauoha o ka nui o ka hewa no 7 makahiki, a hana hou lākou i kēia kuhi hewa me ka ʻōnaehana:
Source: (ka pūnaewele ponoʻī , ma ke ala, maikaʻi loa)
He ʻakaʻaka ko lākou mau wanana me nā ʻikepili hou aku (heluhelu pū ʻoe i ka "maikaʻi, i ka manawa hea lākou e pau ai!!!" i ko lākou mau pihi?):
Source:
He kū'ē maoli kēia, akā i ka wānana ʻana i nā kaʻina hana he nui, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka noʻonoʻo ʻana ʻaʻole kahi wānana laina no ka wā ma mua a ʻaʻole kahi wānana laina e pili ana i ka derivative o kēia manawa, akā he loli i ka wikiwiki o ke kaʻina hana. Hāʻawi kēia i ka hopena pololei loa no nā kaʻina hana like:
Source:
I nā palapala ʻōlelo Pelekania, ʻoi aku hoʻi i ka ʻikepili ʻoihana, hoʻohana mau ʻia ka abbreviation CAGR ( - ua hāʻawi ʻia ka loulou i ka wiki ʻōlelo Pelekania, a ʻo ia ka mea ʻike ʻole ʻaʻohe ʻatikala pili i ka Wikipedia ʻōlelo Lūkini). Hiki ke unuhi ʻia ʻo CAGR ma ke ʻano he "helu ulu ulu makahiki." Ua helu ʻia e like me ke ʻano
kahi t0 - ka makahiki mua, tn - makahiki hope, a V(t) - ka waiwai o ka palena, e hoʻololi paha e like me ke kānāwai exponential. Hōʻike ʻia ka waiwai ma ke ʻano he pākēneka a ʻo ia hoʻi ka nui o ka pākēneka o kekahi waiwai (maʻa mau kekahi mākeke) e ulu aʻe i ka makahiki.
Nui nā hiʻohiʻona ma ka Pūnaewele pehea e helu ai i ka CAGR, no ka laʻana, ma Google Docs a me Excel:
- (ʻōlelo Lūkini kūpono )
E alakaʻi kākou i kahi papa kumu pōkole ma lalo o ka huaʻōlelo "e kōkua kākou iā Sechin", e lawe i ka ʻikepili mai ka hui ʻaila BP (ma ke ʻano he haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa). No ka poʻe hoihoi, aia ka ʻikepili ponoʻī , hiki iā ʻoe ke kope iā ʻoe iho a helu ʻokoʻa. Ma ke ao holoʻokoʻa, ke ulu wikiwiki nei ka hanauna hou:
Source: Ma ʻaneʻi a ma luna o nā kiʻi ʻeleʻele, nā helu a ka mea kākau
He logarithmic ka pālākiō, a maopopo ka ulu ʻana o nā ʻāpana āpau (he mea nui kēia!), ka nui me ka wikiwiki exponential. E like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, ʻo Kina a me kona mau hoalauna nā alakaʻi, ua loaʻa iā ʻAmelika ʻĀkau a me ʻEulopa. He mea hoihoi ia ka penultimate - ka Middle East - ʻo ia kekahi o nā wahi e hana ai i ka aila ma ka honua, a ʻo ia ka CAGR kiʻekiʻe loa ma waena o nā mea āpau (44% i nā makahiki 5 i hala (!)). ʻAʻole ia he mea kupanaha ka ʻike ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana o ka nui i loko o 6 mau makahiki, a ma muli o nā ʻōlelo a ko lākou mau luna, manaʻo lākou e hoʻomau i ke ʻano like. Ua aʻo naʻauao ke kuhina aila mua o Saudi Arabia i kāna mau hoa OPEC i ka makahiki 2000: "ʻAʻole i pau ka Stone Age no ka mea ʻaʻohe pōhaku hou," a me he mea lā ua lawe lākou i kēia manaʻo naʻauao i 10 mau makahiki i hala. ʻO ka CIS (CIS), e like me kā mākou e ʻike nei, aia ma kahi hope. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ulu ʻana.
Hiki ke helu ʻia ʻo CAGR ma nā ʻano like ʻole. No ka laʻana, e kūkulu kākou i CAGR no kēlā me kēia makahiki mai 1965, no nā makahiki 5 i hala a no nā makahiki he 10 i hala. E loaʻa iā ʻoe kēia kiʻi hoihoi (nui no ka honua):
Hiki ke ʻike maopopo ʻia, ma ka awelika, ua wikiwiki ka ulu ʻana o ka exponential a laila lohi. ʻO "Moskovsky Komsomolets" a me nā media melemele ʻē aʻe i kēia hihia e kākau maʻamau i kahi mea e like me "Ke hāʻule nei ka hoʻokele waiwai Kina," ʻo ia hoʻi "ke lohi nei ka ulu nui o ka hoʻokele waiwai Kina" a me ka noʻonoʻo ʻana e pili ana i ka lohi ʻana o lākou. ʻO ka wikiwiki e hiki ai i nā poʻe ke haʻi wale i ka moeʻuhane. Ua like loa na mea a pau maanei.
E ho'āʻo mākou e wānana i ka hana ma 2018 e pili ana i ka ʻikepili a hiki i 2010, e lawe ana i CAGR'1965, CAGR'10Y, CAGR'5Y a me kahi wānana laina mai 2010 e pili ana i 2009 a pili i 2006. Loaʻa iā mākou ke kiʻi aʻe:
| Linear'1Y | Linear'4Y | CAGR'1965 | CAGR'10Y | CAGR'5Y | |
| Hana hou ʻia ma 2018, wānana e pili ana i ka ʻikepili a hiki i 2010 | 1697 | 1442 | 1465 | 2035 | 2429 |
| ʻO ka manaʻo i ka mea maoli ma 2018 | 0,68 | 0,58 | 0,59 | 0,82 | 0,98 |
| Kuhihewa wānana | 32% | 42% | 41% | 18% | 2% |
Nā kikoʻī kikoʻī - ʻaʻohe o nā wanana i lilo i manaʻo maikaʻi loa, ʻo ia. undershoot ma nā wahi a pau. I ka manaʻo maikaʻi loa me kahi CAGR o 15,7%, ʻo ka pōkole he 2%. Hāʻawi nā wānana laina i kahi hewa o 30-40% (ua lawe ʻia kahi manawa i ka wā, ma muli o ka lohi o ka ulu ʻana, ua liʻiliʻi ko lākou hewa). ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻohui i ke kumu hoʻohālike o Sechin, no ka mea ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻihoʻi i kāna ʻano.
E like me nā haʻawina home, e hoʻāʻo i ka backcasting ma ka pāʻani ʻana me nā CAGR ʻokoʻa. E ʻike ʻia ka hopena: ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka wānana ʻana i nā kaʻina exponential e nā hiʻohiʻona exponential.
A ma ke ʻano he cherry ma ka pōpō, eia kahi wanana mai nā BPs like, nona ("Caution, specialists are working!") hāʻawi i ke ala i ka ulu laina i ka wanana:
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E ʻoluʻolu, ʻaʻole lākou i helu i ka hydropower, i helu ʻia ma ke ʻano he kumu ikehu hou. No laila, ʻoi aku ka conservative o kā lākou manaʻo ma mua o Sechin, a hāʻawi lākou i 12% wale nō no 2020. Akā inā hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻia ke kumu a pau ka ulu ʻana o ka exponential i 2020, loaʻa iā lākou he 2040% kahele ma 29. ʻAʻole like ia me Sechin's 16% ... He pilikia wale nō ...
Ua maopopo he kanaka akamai o Sechin. He kanaka makemakika wau ma ka ʻoihana, ʻaʻole he ʻenekinia mana, no laila ʻaʻole hiki iaʻu ke hāʻawi i kahi pane kūpono i ka nīnau e pili ana i ke kumu o kēlā hewa koʻikoʻi i ka wānana a Sechin. ʻO ka mea ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ia ke ʻano o kēia kūlana e like me ka emi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai aila. A (ʻO ka mea i hoʻolohe ʻole i kēia mele a Semyon Slepakov, e nānā) no ke kumu ʻaʻole maopopo loa, aia kahi kumukūʻai paʻa no ke kūʻai ʻana i ka aila ma waho, a ʻaʻole i hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻia nā huahana ʻaila. A inā hoʻololi nui ʻoe i ka wānana, a laila hoʻopau kēia (no kekahi manawa, pono e noʻonoʻo kekahi) nā nīnau leʻaleʻa. Akā, ma ke ʻano he makemakika, makemake wau e ʻike i kahi hewa systematic ma ka liʻiliʻi ma ka pae o nā keonimana mai BP i lohe ʻole i nā derivatives. ʻAʻole oʻu manaʻo, aia wau ma ka moku hoʻokahi.
Hōʻuluʻulu:
- E like me ka ʻike o nā luna āpau, i nā kūlana kaua i ka waiwai o ka π mau (ka lākiō o ke anapuni i kona anawaena) hiki i 4, a i nā hihia kūikawā - a hiki i 5. No laila, i ka wā e pono ai, hōʻike ka wānana o nā loea i ANY nā waiwai i koi ʻia e nā mana. Pono e hoʻomanaʻo i kēia.
- ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o nā kaʻina hana exponential me ka hoʻohana ʻana i kahi helu ulu ulu makahiki, a i ʻole CAGR.
- Hiki ke loiloi ʻia ka wānana a Sechin ma St. Petersburg International Economic Forum ma ke ʻano he kiʻekiʻe loa o ka mahalo ʻole i ka lehulehu a i ʻole ka hoʻopunipuni. E koho mai. Manaʻolana kākou e loaʻa mai ana ka poʻe koa e nīnau mai i kekahi mau nīnau ʻoluʻolu. No ka laʻana, no ke aha i waiwai nui ai nā petrochemical ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, akā ʻo nā hui aupuni o Rūsia e hoʻolilo i ʻumi mau piliona i loko o ka "paipu" a me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā mea maka, ʻaʻole i loko?
- A ʻo ka hope, makemake wau e manaʻolana e hana kekahi o ka poʻe heluhelu i kahi ʻaoʻao e pili ana ma ka Wikipedia Lūkini. ʻO ka manawa kēia, manaʻo wau.
ikehu lā
E hoʻohui kākou i ke kumuhana o nā kaʻina hana exponential. Hōʻike ka pakuhi BP hou loa i ka lele ʻana o ka mahele o ka "lā" i ka makahiki 2020, a ʻo ka conservative BP ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei i kona wā e hiki mai ana. ʻO ka mea e mahalo ai, ua ʻike ʻia kekahi kaʻina hana exponential ma laila, e like me ke kānāwai o Moore, i hala ma mua o 40 mau makahiki a ua kapa ʻia ʻo Swenson's Law:
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He maʻalahi ka manaʻo maʻamau - ke hāʻule nui nei ke kumukūʻai o ka module a ke ulu nui nei ka hana. ʻO ka hopena, inā he 40 mau makahiki i hala aku nei he ʻenehana me ka cosmic (ma kēlā me kēia ʻano) ke kumukūʻai o ka uila, a ua kūpono loa ia no ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā satelite, a laila i kēia lā ua hāʻule ke kumu kūʻai no ka watt ma kahi o 400 mau manawa a hoʻomau i ka hāʻule ( koke 3 kauoha). ʻO ka awelika CAGR i ka waiwai ma kahi o 16% me ka piʻi ʻana o 25% i nā makahiki he 10 i hala, ʻaʻole ia e hana pinepine.
ʻO ka hopena, hoʻonui kēia i ka ulu ʻana o ka hiki ke kau ʻia a me ka hanauna:
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ʻO ka ulu ʻana ma 10 mau manawa i 7-8 mau makahiki he koʻikoʻi loa (heluhelu i ka CAGR iā ʻoe iho, e loaʻa iā ʻoe ka 33-38%(!)). He mea ʻakaʻaka, akā inā ʻaʻole i hoʻōki ʻia, a laila ʻo ka ikehu lā wale nō e hoʻohua i ka 100% o ka pono uila o ka honua i 12 mau makahiki. Pono e hoʻoholo pono i kēia. No ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana i kēia hilahila ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hoʻolauna ʻo Trump i ka makahiki i hala (no nā mākeke ʻē aʻe) 30% dute ma ka lawe ʻana mai o nā panela solar. Akā ʻo ka poʻe Kina i hōʻino ʻia i ka hopena o ka makahiki, ua hoʻemi ʻia nā kumukūʻai ma 34% (ma luna o ka makahiki!), ʻAʻole wale ka hoʻopau ʻana i nā dute, akā, e hoʻomaikaʻi hou i ke kūʻai ʻana mai iā lākou. A ke hoʻomau nei lākou i ke kūkulu ʻana i nā hale hana robotic piha me ka hana ʻana o nā ʻumi gigawatts o nā pā i kēlā me kēia makahiki, e hōʻemi hou ana i nā kumukūʻai a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka nui o ka hana. He ʻano moeʻuhane, e ʻae ʻoe.
ʻO ka hāʻule ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā pila i kēia mau makahiki ʻaʻole wale lākou i lilo i mea hoʻokūkū me ka ʻole o ke kālā, akā ke neʻe wikiwiki nei ka palena no ko lākou hoʻohana pono ʻana i ka ʻākau i ka ʻāpana ʻākau, e uhi ana i nā haneli mau kilomita i kēlā me kēia makahiki. Eia kekahi, i nehinei wale nō ka mea nui e kuhikuhi i nā pākaukau ma ke kihi kūpono a me nā mea āpau. Ua hala nā makahiki 3-4, a no ke kumukūʻai hoʻokahi hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia kahi ʻāpana nui o nā pākahi ma nā ʻaoʻao hema hema. ʻAe, ʻaʻole maikaʻi lākou, akā pono lākou e holoi pinepine ʻia a maʻalahi hoʻi e hoʻokomo. A no ke kumukūʻai hoʻokomo like, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hoʻemi ʻana i ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻona.
Eia hou, ʻo ka kuʻekuʻe Achilles o ka ikehu lā ka hana uila ʻole, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kūlana kahi mamao loa ka mālama ʻana mai 100%. A laila ua ʻike ʻia me ka nui o ka emi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka hana ʻana i hoʻokahi megawatt, ʻaʻole hiki ke uhi wale ʻia ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a me ka awelika o ka mālama ʻana (ʻo ia hoʻi, hiki ke mālama ʻia i kahi ala liʻiliʻi, akā ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi) , akā, ʻo ke kumukūʻai hoʻi o ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā pā (ʻo ia hoʻi, no kēlā mau kālā hoʻokahi, hiki iā mākou ke hoʻouka i ka nui o nā megawatts o ka hanauna, akā me ka nui o nā megawatts o ka waiho ʻana "no ka manuahi", e hoʻololi i ke kūlana).
Hōʻuluʻulu:
- Ua like like ke kānāwai o Swenson me ke kānāwai o Moore ma ke ʻano o ka pono, ʻoiai he liʻiliʻi ka CAGR. Akā i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana e ʻike nui ʻia kona hopena.
- He kumuhana ʻokoʻa loa kēia, akā mahalo i ka hoʻomohala wikiwiki ʻana o ka lā a me ka makani, ua hoʻokomo ʻia kekahi mau piliona pupule i nā ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu ʻenehana i nā makahiki 3 i hala. Ma keʻano maoli, aia ʻo Tesla ma aneʻi , i hoike mai . Paahana kinoea . I ka manawa like, ʻaʻole i hoʻomaka ka leʻaleʻa, no ka mea, ua hoʻoweliweli kekahi mau ʻenehana e loaʻa iā Li-Ion i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai mālama. Eia nō naʻe, he moʻolelo ʻokoʻa loa kēia, e makemake mākou i kā lākou CAGR i kekahi mau makahiki (i kēia manawa he mea kupanaha, akā ʻo kēia ).
Nā kaʻa uila
Ua kākau ka poʻe loea koʻikoʻi ma ka makasina Scientific American i mahalo nui ʻia i ka makahiki 1909: "ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o ka hiki ʻana o ke kaʻa i ka palena o kona hoʻomohala ʻana ua hōʻoia ʻia e ka ʻoiaʻiʻo i ka makahiki i hala ʻaʻole i hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia ke ʻano radical." I ka makahiki i hala, ʻaʻohe hoʻomaikaʻi radical i nā kaʻa uila. Hāʻawi kēia i kumu e hōʻoia ai me ka hilinaʻi a pau ua hiki ke kaʻa uila i ka piko o kona hoʻomohala ʻana.
ʻOi aku ka koʻikoʻi, aia kahi pilikia "moa a me ka hua" i ka hapa nui o nā ʻenehana. A hiki i ka nui o ka hana ʻana i kahi pae, ʻoi loa ka pipiʻi o ka hoʻolauna ʻana i kekahi mau mea hou, a, ma ke ʻano ʻē aʻe, a hiki i ka hoʻolauna ʻia ʻana, ua lohi ke kūʻai aku. ʻO kēlā mau. No ka lanakila ʻana i nā "maʻi kamaliʻi" pono kahi hana nui. A eia ka mea maʻalahi e loiloi i nā ʻenehana hou e ka pae o ka nui o ka hana ma kēlā me kēia kapita:
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ʻAʻole au akamai a ʻaʻole maopopo iaʻu pehea e loli ai nā kaʻa uila i nā makahiki he 15 e hiki mai ana. Akā ʻoiaʻiʻo he huahana kiʻekiʻe loa kēia, a loli koke lākou. A ʻo ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kaʻa uila i kēia manawa ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kaʻa me nā mīkini hoʻopau i loko i ka makahiki 1910 a me ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kelepona paʻa i ka makahiki 1983. ʻO nā loli no ka maikaʻi (no ka mea kūʻai aku) i nā makahiki he 15 e hiki mai ana. A ʻo ia ka manawa e hoʻomaka ai ka leʻaleʻa.
Ma keʻano laulā, ua hoʻoneʻe ʻia nā kaʻa uila e nā kumu ʻekolu:
- Ke hehi ʻoe i ke kinoea, lele ʻoe i mua, e like me ke kaʻa haʻuki, a ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ke kumukūʻai ma mua o ke kaʻa haʻuki. A loaʻa nā kaʻa uila iā lākou ma nā ala pōkole (, , no ka laʻana, no kēia kumu Tesla ) He aha ka mākaʻi Lūkini-ʻAmelika makemake ʻole i ka holo wikiwiki?
- He mea maʻalahi loa ka hoʻopiha hou ʻana, inā ʻaʻole he mea ʻole. Noho ʻo Roman Naumov ma Kanada () ke kumu o ka huhū wela, e wehewehe ana i kona holo ʻana, he maʻi maʻi, i 600 km ma waho o ke kūlanakauhale, me ka hoʻolilo ʻana i $4 ma ka wahie (a i ʻole hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia). ʻO Elon Musk, ke hoʻomanaʻo nei au, ua hoʻopiʻi ʻo ia i ka nui o nā mea waiwai waiwai o Teslas e hoʻokele iā ia i kahi Supercharger manuahi, kahi manuahi manuahi. I ka pōkole, ʻaneʻane hoʻopau ʻia ka wahie mai nā mea hoʻohana.
- A ke ʻōlelo nei nā ʻenekinia a pau i ka wā e ola ai nā maʻi kamaliʻi, ʻoi aku ka emi o ke kumukūʻai o ke kaʻa uila no ka mālama ʻana. E ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o THAT. ʻO nā kaila wale nō, ʻōlelo lākou, pono e hoʻololi pinepine ʻia, pau lākou ...
A, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo e hiki ke hoʻopiʻi ʻia ke kaʻa ma nā wahi āpau kahi e puka ai - he kipi kēia. ʻO ia hoʻi, inā hiki ka uila i kou kupuna wahine ma ke kauhale, hiki iā ʻoe ke hele mai i ona lā a hoʻopiha hou, ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole hiki iā ʻoe ke hoʻokele i kahi kīʻaha ʻāina, akā 99. (9)% o ka poʻe e hele mai i kauhale, a laila noho mau ke kaʻa ma laila. A ʻapōpō ʻaʻole ia e kū wale, akā e hoʻopau i ka uila ma kahi uku kūʻai kauhale.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, he liʻiliʻi nā loina, ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki, akā ... e nānā i ka pakuhi:
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He aha? Kaʻina hana exponential hou? A ʻo ka mea! ʻO ka nīnau penei: pehea e loli ai ke kūlana inā i loko o nā makahiki he 10 e hiki mai ana ka piʻi ʻana o ka nui o nā hale hoʻokele kinoea i 1000 mau manawa ("A tausani, Karl!")? (ʻO CAGR=100% kēia, ʻo ia hoʻi, pālua i kēlā me kēia makahiki) E kala mai, ua hewa wau. I ka wā e hiki mai ana Nā makahiki 8 1000 manawa! (ʻO kēia kahi CAGR = 137%, ʻo ia ka wikiwiki ma mua o ka pālua makahiki). Aʻelua o kēia mau makahiki 8 ua kokoke i hala ... A'ōlelo ka poʻe mai kaʻoihana i nā makahiki 8 e hiki mai ana ka uluʻanaʻaʻole e 3 mau kauoha o ka nui, akā,ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki, me ka hanauna hou o nā forks. No ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i kona ʻano, pono ʻoe e hele i Kina. ʻOiaʻiʻo, aia nā puka uila ma ka hapa nui o nā wahi kaʻa a ulu lākou e like me nā halo ma hope o ka ua i ka wā mahana. A ʻo nā poʻe noho o nā hale kiʻekiʻe e hoʻopiha hou i ka hebedoma ma kahi huakaʻi Lāpule i ka hale kiʻiʻoniʻoni a i ʻole ke kikowaena kūʻai (kahi e paʻa mau ai ke kaʻa a kali iā ʻoe no kekahi mau hola). A e hakakā nā hale kūʻai me nā hale ʻaina no nā malihini me nā kaʻa uila (ke hakakā nei lākou ma Kina).
ʻAe, kiʻekiʻe ke kumukūʻai o nā kaʻa uila i kēia manawa. Akā hāʻawi ka pākaukau i ka hapa nui ma laila, a hāʻule kona kumukūʻai e like me kēia:
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ʻAe, ua ʻae lākou! He kaʻina hana exponential hou kēia! A ʻo ka awelika CAGR he -20,8%, ka mea, e like me kā mākou e ʻike ai, he kiʻekiʻe loa. Inā he 5 manawa ka 2% i nā makahiki 15, akā he 20 manawa ka 10% i loko o nā makahiki 12 (“Ten times, Karl!”):
He mea ʻakaʻaka ma kēia helu, i loko o 3-4 mau makahiki, ma kahi o hoʻokahi pākahi no kāu kaʻa, hiki iā ʻoe ke kūʻai i ʻelua no ke kumu kūʻai like. E kau i ka lua ma ka hale kaʻa, a e hāʻawi iā ʻoe i kahi supercharger pilikino. Hoʻi ʻoe i ka home a hoʻopiha i ka wahie. A i ka pō. A e hānai ʻia ka hale a pau i ka pō. A ʻaʻole e hopohopo hou ka pau ʻana o ka mana ma ke kauhale hale. A (e hoʻomanaʻo ana i ka CAGR o ka "lā") - hiki ke hoʻokomo i nā panela solar ma ka hale. Loaʻa nā kālā maikaʻi ma laila, no laila e ʻōlelo ka nui o ka poʻe: “Maikaʻi! E lawe au! E hoʻopaʻa ʻia!” (ka hapa nui ma и , ʻOiaʻiʻo).
He mea kupaianaha, ma hope o kēia mau kaʻina hana exponential. I nā makahiki he 10 e hiki mai ana, e ʻike maoli mākou i ka holomua koʻikoʻi ma ke kahua o nā kaʻa uila a ʻike ʻia nā kaʻa uila hou e like me ka pilikia a me ka pōʻino. ʻAʻohe mana mālama, ʻaʻohe autopilot, pono ʻoe e lawe i kahi pūʻulu o nā mea hoʻololi ... Nā hiʻohiʻona mua, i ka pōkole.
Hōʻuluʻulu:
- Ua kūʻai ʻia nā kaʻa uila ma Kina i ka hapa mua o 2019 . I ka manawa like, ua hāʻule nā kūʻai aku o nā kaʻa me nā mīkini hoʻopau i loko e 12%. ʻAʻole ia he bele, he gong.
- ʻO ka mea kaulana loa i waena o nā kaʻa uila, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo Tesla. Aka, e huki au i kou noonoo i ka Pake . ʻOi aku paha kona nānā .
- Ma Kina, ʻōmaʻomaʻo nā palapala laikini no nā kaʻa uila. Ke hoʻohiki nei nā luna e hiki koke mai i nā lā o ka "ʻulaʻula" o ka smog e hoʻōki lākou i ka ʻae ʻana i nā kaʻa āpau koe nā kaʻa uila i ke kikowaena o Beijing. Ke kūʻai nei nā hui kaʻa i nā kaʻa uila e nā kaukani. Ua holo ka mea kākau ma kēlā ʻano kaʻa kaʻa, he mea kupanaha.
He aha ka hana ma IT?
Ua kaulana ʻo Moore's Law no ka mea ua mau ia me kahi CAGR nui ma kahi o 41% no kahi kokoke i 40 mau makahiki. He aha nā hiʻohiʻona ʻē aʻe o CAGR maikaʻi ma IT? Nui ka nui o lākou, no ka laʻana, ka ulu kālā o Google me kahi CAGR o 43% ma luna o 16 mau makahiki:
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Ke nānā nei i kēia pakuhi, ua ʻoluʻolu ʻole kekahi poʻe (ʻoi aku ka poʻe i pāpā ʻia nā noi mai ka Google Play Store). Nui nā mea e noʻonoʻo ai ma ʻaneʻi. ʻO ka pule i hala aku nei, ʻoiai ke kaʻa ʻana i kahi kaʻa, ua hoʻomaka ke kelepona e hoʻomau i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka hoʻokele Google, ʻoiai ke kaʻa nei wau me Yandex.Navigator. ʻAʻole paha lākou i lawa ka nui o ka mākeke, akā pono lākou e hoʻonui i ka loaʻa kālā, manaʻo wau. A noʻonoʻo nō hoʻi au.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā kiʻi ʻenehana maʻemaʻe, no ka laʻana, i hōʻike ʻia ma ka pālākiō logarithmic, ka hōʻemi ʻana i ke kumukūʻai o ka wahi disk a me ka piʻi ʻana o ka wikiwiki o nā pilina pūnaewele e 2019:
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He mea maʻalahi kaʻikeʻana aia kahi manaʻo e hiki i kahi pāpū,ʻo ia hoʻi. emi ka ulu ana. Akā naʻe, ua ulu maikaʻi lākou no nā makahiki. Inā ʻoe e nānā i ka paʻakikī paʻakikī i nā kikoʻī hou aku, hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻike i ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana i ka exponent e hōʻoia pinepine ʻia e kēia ʻenehana:
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No laila ke kali nei mākou i nā SSD e hopu i nā HDD a haʻalele iā lākou ma hope loa.
Eia kekahi, me kahi CAGR maikaʻi loa o 59%, hāʻule ke kumukūʻai o nā kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi i ka manawa hoʻokahi (Kāwai o Handy):
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Ua ʻike pū ʻia nā makahiki he 10 i hala iho nei i ka emi ʻana o ka nui o ka nui pixel kamera.
Eia kekahi, me kahi CAGR maikaʻi ma kahi o 25% (10 mau manawa i 10 mau makahiki), ua hāʻule ke kumukūʻai no kēlā me kēia pika o kahi hōʻike maʻamau no kahi o 40 mau makahiki, ʻoiai ke hoʻonui nei ka ʻōlinolino a me ka ʻokoʻa o nā pika (ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi. hāʻawi ʻia ma ke kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa). Ma ka nui, ʻaʻole ʻike hou nā mea hana i kahi e waiho ai i nā pika. ʻO nā TV 8K ke kūʻai aku nei, akā he nīnau maikaʻi ka mea e hōʻike ai iā lākou. Hiki ke hoʻopili ʻia kekahi helu o nā pika e ka autostereoscopy, akā aia nā pilikia i hoʻoholo ʻole ʻia ma laila. Eia naʻe, he moʻolelo ʻokoʻa kēia. ʻO kēlā me kēia hihia, ʻo ka hōʻemi hoʻokalakupua i ke kumukūʻai pixel e hoʻokokoke kokoke ai i ka autostereoscopy.
Eia kekahi, ʻo ka hoʻolaha exponential o nā lawelawe lako polokalamu:
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No ka laʻana, AppleTV a i ʻole Facebook. A, e like me ka mea i ʻōlelo ʻia ma luna, mahalo nui i nā ʻoihana pūnaewele, piʻi ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻolaha ʻana i nā mea hou.
Hōʻuluʻulu:
- Ma muli o nā kaʻina hana exponential i nā makahiki he 20 i hala iho nei, ua hoʻoneʻe nui nā hui IT i nā poʻe ʻē aʻe i ka papa inoa o nā hui nui loa o ka honua. A ʻaʻohe o lākou manaʻo e hoʻōki (ʻo ia ke ʻano).
- ʻO ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka hapa nui o nā ʻenehana ma IT he exponential. Eia kekahi, ʻo ka maʻamau he S-like curves, ke hoʻololi ʻia kahi ʻenehana i kekahi, i kēlā me kēia manawa e hoʻihoʻi hou i kahi helu exponential.
Nā pūnaewele neural
Ua kaulana loa nā pūnaewele neural i kēia mau lā. E nānā kākou i ka nui o nā patent ma luna o lākou i nā makahiki i hala iho nei:
Damn... Me he mea lā he mea hōʻikeʻike hou (ʻoiai he pōkole loa ka manawa). Eia nō naʻe, inā mākou e nānā i nā hoʻomaka i kahi manawa lōʻihi, ua like ke kiʻi (14 mau manawa i 15 mau makahiki he CAGR o 19% - maikaʻi loa):
Source: (ʻae, ʻae, ʻike wau i ka mea i laila i nā makahiki 3 e hiki mai ana)
I ka manawa like, hōʻike pū ʻia nā neural network ma nā wahi he nui i nā hopena maikaʻi aʻe ma mua o ke kanaka maʻamau:
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A maikaʻi, ke loaʻa ka hopena ma ImageNet (ʻoiai ʻo ka hopena pololei he hanauna hou o nā robots ʻenehana), akā i ka ʻōlelo ʻana i ke kiʻi like:
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ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā neural network i ka mea maʻamau i ka ʻike leo a ke hele nei lākou e hoʻokō iā lākou ma nā ʻōlelo maʻamau. ma kahi, .
E like me kā lākou hoʻohenehene e pili ana i kēia kumuhana, ʻaʻole i liʻuliʻu ua manaʻo mākou: ʻae, e hiki koke i nā robots ke hana i nā hana hoʻopunipuni ma ke kiʻekiʻe o nā monkey, a ua manaʻo ʻia he mamao loa ia mai ke kiʻekiʻe o ke kanaka naʻaupō, a ʻoi aku hoʻi. Einstein:
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Akā, ua ʻike koke ʻia ua hiki ke kiʻekiʻe o kahi kanaka maʻamau (a hoʻomau ʻia ke kiʻi ʻia) ), a i ke kiʻekiʻe o ke akamai loa (e like me nā hoʻokūkū me kahi kanaka i ka chess a me Go i hōʻike ʻia) ua emi koke ka mamao ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia:
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Ma ka chess, ua loaʻa nā kānaka koʻikoʻi ma kahi o 15 mau makahiki i hala, ma Go - , a maopopo ke au:
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E like me kā Jack Welch, Luna Nui o General Electric i ʻōlelo ai, "Inā ʻoi aku ka nui o ka loli o waho ma mua o ka loli o loko, ua kokoke ka hopena." ʻO kēlā mau. Inā ʻaʻole loli ka ʻoihana ma mua o ka loli ʻana o ke kūlana a puni, ua pilikia nui ia. ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ua haʻalele ʻo ia i ke keʻena he 18 mau makahiki i hala, a ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka waiwai o GE mai ia manawa. ʻAʻole mālama ʻo GE i nā loli.
Ke hoʻomanaʻo nei i nā wānana e pili ana i ke kelepona e nā loea o Western Union, nā wānana a Lord Kelvin, nā manaʻo mākeke no nā kamepiula home Digital Equipment a me nā kelepona Microsoft, e kūʻē i ke kua o nā wānana a Sechin, ua hōʻoia wau i nā hopohopo. No ka mea, hoʻomau ka mōʻaukala. A hou. A hou. A hou.
Nui nā loea, ma hope o ke aʻo ʻana i kā lākou kula ma kahi institute/university, oki i ka hoʻomohala ʻana. A ua hana ʻia nā wānana me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā ʻenehana o ke kenekulia i hala (ma nā ʻano āpau). I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua ʻeha wau i ka nīnau: pehea ka wikiwiki e hoʻololi ai nā neural network i nā loea i ʻike ʻole pehea e hoʻopili ai iā CAGR? A makemake wale wau e hana i kahi wānana, a makaʻu wau i ka hewa. I ka undershoot, e like me kou hoomaopopo ana.
Akā ʻo ke koʻikoʻi, ʻo ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻololi ʻana e like me ka makani. Inā ʻike ʻoe i ka hoʻonohonoho pono ʻana i nā peʻa (a ua hoʻokō ka waʻa holo moku), a laila ʻaʻole hiki i ke poʻo ke pale iā ʻoe mai ka neʻe ʻana i mua, a inā he huelo, a me kahi CAGR nui!!!
Hauʻoli CAGR i ka poʻe a pau i pau i ka heluhelu!
MEA HOU
Ke hana mau nei ʻo Habraeffect! I ka lā i paʻi ʻia ai kēia mea, ua puka mai kahi ʻatikala e pili ana ! ʻAʻole i unuhi ʻia ka laʻana, akā ua hoʻomaka mua ʻia. Eia hou hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻike ai ole ia,
MahaloMakemake au e mahalo nui:
- Laboratory of Computer Graphics VMK Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov no kāna haʻawina i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā kiʻi kamepiula ma Rūsia a ma waho.
- ʻO Konstantin Kozhemyakov ponoʻī, nāna i hana nui i mea e ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kēia ʻatikala.
- a ʻo ka hope loa, mahalo nui iā Kirill Malyshev, Egor Sklyarov, Ivan Molodetskikh, Nikolai Oplachko, Evgeny Lyapustin, Alexander Ploshkin, Andrey Moskalenko, Aidar Khatiullin, Dmitry Klepikov, Dmitry Konovalchuk, Maxim Velikanov, Alexander Yakovenko a me Evgeny Kupt no kahi helu nui. nā manaʻo a me nā hoʻoponopono i ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kēia kikokikona!
Source: www.habr.com