I ka wā kahiko, ʻaʻole hiki i hoʻokahi kanaka ke ʻike ma mua o 1000 mau kānaka i loko o kona ola holoʻokoʻa, a kamaʻilio pū me nā hoa ʻohana he kakini wale nō. I kēia lā, koi ʻia mākou e hoʻomanaʻo i ka ʻike e pili ana i kahi helu nui o nā hoaaloha e hōʻeha ʻia inā ʻaʻole ʻoe e aloha iā lākou ma ka inoa ke hālāwai ʻoe.
Ua hoʻonui nui ʻia ka helu o nā kahe ʻike e hiki mai ana. No ka laʻana, hoʻopuka mau nā mea a pau a mākou i ʻike i nā ʻike hou e pili ana iā lākou iho. A aia kekahi poʻe a mākou e hahai pono ai, ʻoiai me ka ʻole o ka manawa e hui kino ai - he poʻe kālai'āina kēia, nā mea paʻi puke, nā mea pena.
ʻAʻole unuhi mau ka nui i ka maikaʻi. Hoʻopuka pinepine ka poʻe kaulana o ka honua i ka leo ʻike mau ʻaʻole pili i ko mākou ola maoli ma kekahi ʻano. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻāʻo ʻana e hoʻokaʻawale i nā leo o ka poʻe i hiki ke ʻike hou a hoʻomaopopo ma mua o nā mea ʻē aʻe.
I ka wā i nui ai ka ʻike kumu ʻole, hiki i nā leo o nā futurologists ke hoʻohana pono i ka ʻimi ʻana i nā ʻano hou a me ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i nā mīkini o nā mea nui e hoʻohuli i ka honua. Ma lalo ʻoe e ʻike ai i nā loulou i nā moʻolelo o nā mea ʻike pili pono o ka wā e hiki mai ana i kēia lā.
Ua kapa ʻo Bill Gates iā Raymond Kurzweil "ʻo ke kanaka maikaʻi loa aʻu i ʻike ai i ka wānana i ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka naʻauao hana." ʻAʻole ia he mea kupanaha ua paʻa ka futurist kaulana i ke kūlana o ke alakaʻi ʻenehana i ke kula o ka mīkini aʻo a me ka hana ʻōlelo kūlohelohe ma Google mai 2012.
Manaʻo ʻo Kurzweil i loko o ke ola o ka hanauna o kēia manawa e hoʻokō ʻia kahi mea kūʻokoʻa e hiki ai i ke kanaka ke piʻi i kahi pae hou o ke ola evolutionary.
ʻO Symbiosis me ka naʻauao akamai ikaika e kōkua iā mākou e hōʻea i ka pae aʻe o ke alapiʻi evolutionary. ʻO ka hopena, e hoʻopau ka singularity i nā ʻokoʻa ma waena o ke kanaka a me ka naʻauao.
Wahi a Kurzweil, e hoʻopau ʻia nā pilikia intractable e like me ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau, ka nele o nā kumuwaiwai, nā maʻi a me ka make e ka singularity.
Theoretical physicist, popularizer o ka 'epekema me ka incredibly laulaha like 'ole o ka makemake - mai ka 'eleʻele i ka lolo noiʻi.
ʻO Michio Kaku kekahi o nā mea nāna i hoʻokumu i ka manaʻo string. Ua paʻi ʻo ia ma mua o 70 mau pepa ʻepekema e pili ana i ka superstring theory, supergravity, supersymmetry and particle physics. He kākoʻo ikaika o ka Multiverse - ke kumumanaʻo o ke ola ʻana o nā universe like ʻole. Manaʻo ʻo Kaku ua hiki mai ka Big Bang i ka wā i hui ai kekahi mau ao a i ʻole i ka wā i māhele ʻia ai kekahi ao i ʻelua.
I ka makahiki 1980, ua kūkulu ʻo Lanier i nā aniani a me nā mīkina lima no ka ʻoiaʻiʻo maoli. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ua hoʻokumu ʻo ia i ka huaʻōlelo VR.
Ke hana nei i kēia manawa ma Microsoft, e hana ana i nā pilikia ʻike ʻike. Hōʻike ʻia i kēlā me kēia manawa ma ka media ma ke ʻano he loea i ke kahua o ka techno-pessimism a me ka mea kākau o ka puke "Ten Arguments for Deleting Your Social Media Accounts Right Now."
No nā kumu maopopo, ʻaʻole ia e mālama i nā ʻaoʻao ma nā ʻoihana pūnaewele, no laila hāʻawi mākou i kahi loulou i kāna pūnaewele pilikino.
ʻO ka mea kākau moʻolelo pūʻali koa ʻIseraʻela i loea i ka Middle Ages ʻEulopa. ʻO Vegan, ka mea hana pono holoholona, mea kōkua i ke kumu alakaʻi alakaʻi o ka moʻomeheu Burmese hope loa o Vipassana meditation, ka mea kākau o ʻelua mau puke koʻikoʻi: Sapiens: He Moʻolelo Pōkole no ke Kanaka a me Homo Deus: He Moʻolelo Pōkole o ka lā ʻapōpō.
ʻOiai ʻo ka puke mua e pili ana i ka holomua lohi o ke kanaka i kēia manawa, ʻo "Homo Deus" kahi ʻōlelo aʻo e pili ana i ka "dataism" (ka noʻonoʻo i hana ʻia e ka ulu nui ʻana o Big Data i ka honua) e hana ai i ko mākou kaiāulu a me nā kino i kahi kokoke. e hiki mai ana.
ʻO kekahi o nā mea koʻikoʻi koʻikoʻi i ka lehulehu e kūʻē i nā pilikia o nā maʻi e pili ana i ka makahiki, ka mea noiʻi nui a me ka hoʻokumu pū ʻana o ke kahua noiʻi SENS. Hoʻoikaika ʻo Dee Gray e hoʻonui nui i ka manaʻolana o ke ola kanaka i lilo ai ka make i mea o ka wā i hala.
Ua hoʻomaka ʻo Aubrey Dee Gray i kāna ʻoihana ma ke ʻano he ʻenekini AI/software ma 1985. Mai ka makahiki 1992, ke alakaʻi nei ʻo ia i ka noiʻi ʻana ma ke kahua o ka cell and molecular biology ma ke Keʻena Genetics ma ke Kulanui o Cambridge.
I ka makahiki 1999, ua paʻi ʻo ia i kahi puke i kapa ʻia ʻo "The Mitochondrial Free Radical Theory of Aging," kahi i wehewehe mua ai ʻo ia i ka manaʻo nui o kāna noiʻi ʻepekema hou aʻe: ka pale ʻana a me ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i nā pōʻino i hōʻiliʻili ʻia e ke kino i ka wā o ka ʻelemakule. i ka DNA mitochondrial), pono e kōkua i ka poʻe e ola lōʻihi loa.
Luna Hoʻokele o ka MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab, ʻāpana o ka hui noiʻi ʻoihana nui loa ma ka honua, IBM Research. No 11 makahiki, ua aʻo ʻo David Cox ma Harvard. Ua loaʻa iā ia ke kēkelē laepua ma ka biology a me ka psychology mai Harvard a me ke kauka lapaʻau ma ka neuroscience mai ka Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ua lawe mai ʻo IBM i kahi loea ʻepekema ola e hana i nā pilikia naʻauao.
ʻO ke poʻo mua a me ka luna o ka papa alakaʻi o kekahi o nā mea hoʻokele kaulana loa no nā hoʻomaka - ʻo Y Combinator, kekahi o nā alakaʻi o ka OpenAI artificial intelligence research project, i hoʻokumu pū ʻia me Peter Thiel a me Elon Musk (haʻalele i ka papahana ma 2018 ma muli o i ka paio pili).
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ʻO Nicholas Thompson (kiʻi ʻākau) he mea kākau moʻolelo ʻenehana, luna hoʻoponopono o ka hoʻolaha ʻenehana hoʻomana WIRED, he alakaʻi manaʻo e pili ana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka naʻauao artificial, ka puka ʻana o kahi Internet authoritarian, a me nā pilikia o ka inoa ʻole ma ka Pūnaewele.
ʻAʻohe mea liʻiliʻi ʻē aʻe kekahi limahana koʻikoʻi: Kevin Kelly, co-founder o WIRED, mea kākau o ka puke "Inevitable. 12 ʻenehana ʻenehana e hoʻohālikelike i ko mākou wā e hiki mai ana.
ʻO ka mea hoʻokumu a me ka mea noiʻi ma ka Singularity Institute no ka hoʻokumu ʻana i ka naʻauao artificial, ka mea kākau o ka puke "Creating Friendly AI" a me nā ʻatikala he nui e pili ana i nā pilikia o ka naʻauao kūlohelohe a me ke akamai.
I loko o nā pōʻai hoʻonaʻauao ʻole, ua ʻike ʻia ʻo ia ʻo ia ka mea kākau o kekahi o nā puke nui o ke kenekulia XNUMXst. i ka hoʻomohala ʻana a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā loina o ka loiloi i ke ola maoli: "Harry Potter and the Methods of Rational Thinking."
ʻO Hashem Al Ghaili, 27, mai Yemen a noho i Kelemānia, he ʻāpana ia o ka hanauna hou o nā mea kaulana ʻepekema. Ma ke ʻano he mea hana i nā wikiō ʻepekema a hoʻonaʻauao, ua hōʻoia ʻo ia ʻoiai me kahi kālā liʻiliʻi hiki iā ʻoe ke hōʻiliʻili i ka lehulehu o nā miliona. Mahalo i nā kiʻi e wehewehe ana i nā hopena o ka noiʻi paʻakikī, ua hōʻuluʻulu ʻo ia ma mua o 7,5 miliona mau mea kākau inoa a ʻoi aku ma mua o 1 biliona manaʻo.
ʻO ka mea kākau o nā mea kūʻai maikaʻi loa ʻo "The Black Swan" a me "Risking Your Own Skin. ʻO ka asymmetry huna o ke ola o kēlā me kēia lā, "ka mea kūʻai aku, philosopher, risk forecaster. ʻO ka ʻāpana nui o nā makemake ʻepekema ke aʻo nei i ka hopena o nā hanana maʻamau a ʻike ʻole ʻia i ka hoʻokele honua a me ke kālepa ʻana. Wahi a Nassim Taleb, kokoke i nā hanana āpau i loaʻa nā hopena koʻikoʻi no nā mākeke, nā politika honua a me nā ola o nā kānaka he mea hiki ʻole ke wānana.
ʻO ka mea nāna i hoʻokumu i ka Institute for Global Futures ma Kapalakiko, ka mea kākau o ka puke "Smart Futures: Managing the Trends That Transform Your World." Ua hana ʻo ia ma ke ʻano he mea aʻoaʻo i ka hoʻokele White House no nā ʻano e hiki mai ana.
ʻO ka ʻepekema politika, ka mea nāna i hoʻokumu a me ka luna hoʻomalu o ka naʻauao pilikino a me ka hui analytical Stretfor, nāna e hōʻiliʻili a loiloi i ka ʻike e pili ana i nā hanana i ka honua. Ua ʻike ʻia ʻo ia no kekahi mau wānana hoʻopaʻapaʻa, akā i ka manawa like e hōʻike ana i ka manaʻo o kahi ʻāpana koʻikoʻi o nā loea US e pili ana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ʻāina ʻEulopa a me nā ʻāina e pili ana.
Ua hōʻuluʻulu mākou i kahi papa inoa mamao loa. Makemake paha kekahi e hoʻohui i kahi futurist, ʻike a noʻonoʻo paha (no ka laʻana, makemake ʻoe i nā manaʻo o Daniel Kahneman, a maopopo ʻoe i ka wā e hiki mai ana e hoʻololi lākou i ka honua) - e kākau i kāu mau manaʻo i nā manaʻo.
Source: www.habr.com