"Ke holo nei nā moku mokulele i nā ākea o ke ao holoʻokoʻa" - na tkdrobert
Nīnau pinepine mai ka poʻe iaʻu: "Kākau ʻoe e pili ana i nā hoʻomaka, akā ua lōʻihi ka hana hou ʻana iā lākou, akā he aha ka mea e pono ai e hoʻokuʻu ʻia i kēia manawa, aia ka Facebook hou?" Inā wau i ʻike i ka pane pololei, ʻaʻole wau i haʻi aku i kekahi, akā ua hana wau iaʻu iho, akā maopopo loa ke kuhikuhi o ka ʻimi, hiki iā mākou ke kamaʻilio ākea.
Ua haku ʻia nā mea a pau ma mua o mākou
Hoʻokumu ʻia nā hoʻomaka hyper-successful a pau i nā manaʻo maʻalahi loa. Ua ulu aʻe ʻo Google ma o ka lawe ʻana i nā loulou i loko o kāna kūlana. Hōʻike ʻo Booking.com i nā hōkele a pau o ka honua i hoʻokahi interface. ʻAe ʻo Tinder iā ʻoe e hoʻolauna i kahi lā me hoʻokahi swipe. ʻO Uber kahi kauoha kaʻa ma kahi noi kelepona. I kēia manawa, hoʻohana kēia mau ʻoihana i nā ʻumi kaukani o nā limahana, i kēlā me kēia lā e hoʻopiʻi lākou i ka huahana a hoʻohui i nā lawelawe hou, akā, i ka hoʻomaka ʻana, ua maʻalahi nā mea āpau.
He kakaikahi na manao maikai. Aia ma lalo o 100 mau mākeke nui maoli ma ka honua. Loaʻa iā TRIZ nā ʻenehana kumu 40; ʻaʻole lākou e hoʻololi maikaʻi i nā lawelawe virtual, akā ua like paha mākou i ka helu like o lākou. A e waiho i lalo, e ʻōlelo, 5 mau ala e hoʻopili ai i kēlā me kēia ʻenehana i kahi ʻoihana kikoʻī.
E ho'āʻo kāua i ke ʻano hana "palena liʻiliʻi" ma nā pūnaewele kaiapili: helu o nā hoaaloha - Ala - hāʻule, nui ʻike - Twitter - kūleʻa, ʻike i ke ola - Snapchat - kūleʻa, hoʻopaʻa inoa - Facebook - kūleʻa, nui o ka ʻike - ʻaʻole wau ʻike laʻana. He aha hou aʻe e hiki ke kaupalena ʻia? Inā ʻaʻohe mea ʻē aʻe, a laila ua ʻike ʻia he 5 wale nō.
100 x 40 x 5 = 20 tausani mau manaʻo nui hiki ke ola. A komo pū kēia me nā hui hoʻohenehene loa. Nui aʻe nā papahana ma ka honua i kēlā me kēia makahiki, no laila ua loaʻa i nā manawa āpau ka manawa e neʻe ai ma mua o hoʻokahi.
Ua hoʻāʻo ʻia kēlā me kēia manaʻo maikaʻi, ua lawe ʻia (a ua lōʻihi ka hana hou ʻana), a i ʻole ʻaʻole i lawe ʻia (a ʻaʻole e haʻalele ʻia ma ʻaneʻi, ʻaʻole mākou i ʻoi aku ma mua o nā haneli a i ʻole nā haneri o mua) - ʻaʻohe mea hoʻomaka hou, ke haʻalele nei mākou.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole
ʻO ka hoʻopunipuni ke loli nei ka honua. ʻO ka mea i manaʻo ʻole e hoʻāʻo i 20 mau makahiki i hala ua hiki ke hāʻule i 10 mau makahiki i hala a loaʻa iā ia kahi manawa e lilo i mea kūleʻa nui i kēia manawa. E ho'āʻo ka poʻe pilikua i ka wā e hiki mai ana i nā mea i pono ʻole a hiki ʻole paha, a hoʻokele e lilo i mea mua e hoʻomaka i ka wā kūpono. ʻO ka hoʻololi ʻenehana koʻikoʻi o nā makahiki he 30 i hala iho nei - nā kamaʻilio ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi - ua hana maʻamau ka pilina ma waena o nā kūlanakauhale a me nā ʻāina. ʻO ka hopena ʻo Facebook, Amazon, Booking.com. I loko o 10 mau makahiki, ua loaʻa i "nā mea āpau" kahi kelepona i loko o kā lākou ʻeke - Uber, Instagram, a me nā neobanks i ulu i kēia.
Ma kahi Nokia 3310 a i ʻole Samsung S55, ʻaʻohe kumu o ka mea kūʻai aku kaʻa kaʻa. Ua ho'āʻo paha kekahi i kēia ʻano ʻoihana, akā ʻaʻole i loaʻa ka manawa. Ma Iune 29, 2007, ua hōʻea ka iPhone mua a ua loli ka honua. Ua hoʻokumu ʻia ʻo Uber ma Malaki 2009 - ʻaʻole hoʻi ka mea mua o kāna ʻano, akā ʻo kekahi o ka mea mua, ua wehe ʻia ka puka makani o ka manawa kūpono, ʻaʻohe mea i lawe iā ia, ua loaʻa iā lākou ka manawa - a ʻaʻohe mea e ʻōlelo ai ka poʻe hōʻino, ʻo ka hui. i kēia manawa he $51 biliona.
Hiki ke hana hou ʻia ka moʻolelo like me nā mea ʻē aʻe. Ma mua o ka hoʻohana nui ʻana o ka Pūnaewele, ʻaʻole hiki ke kālepa ma luna o ka Pūnaewele. I ka manawa i kaulana ai, ua puka mai kahi niche no nā hale kūʻai pūnaewele. ʻAʻole ʻo Bezos ka mea mua loa i loko, akā ʻo ia kekahi o ka mea mua a, ʻike ʻia, ka mea kūleʻa loa - a laila ʻike ʻia ʻo Amazon.
Ke loli mau nei ka honua
Ua kūpono ka pilina i kēia manawa. ʻO 5G kahi loea, ʻaʻole hoʻolālā, nāwaliwali ka loli, ʻike ʻia nā ʻoihana hou a puni ka ʻenehana, akā ʻaʻole ʻo Google hou. Aia ke kelepona i loko o kēlā me kēia ʻeke uku. Ua pau kēia mau ʻale, akā ʻaʻole i pau ka moʻolelo o ke kanaka.
He aha ka mea i kēia manawa a i ʻole e ʻike ʻia i ka wā e hiki mai ana ʻaʻole i loaʻa he ʻumi makahiki i hala? Nui paha ia mau mea; ʻokoʻa loa ko kākou honua. E hoʻomanaʻo koke kekahi poʻe i nā moʻolelo hou o ka hoʻomehana honua a me ka ulu ʻana o ka heluna kanaka (hello, Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods), nā mea ʻē aʻe e pili ana iā CRISPR (pehea wau e hoʻomaka ai nā unicorns e hoʻomaka e ʻike ʻia ma ʻaneʻi), akā ma ke kahua IT ʻike ʻia ke alakaʻi.
I ka makahiki 2019, ua lilo ka ʻike akamai i mea maoli. I kēia manawa, i ka makahiki 20, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana o ka kamepiula i nā hana maʻamau a ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ka poʻe - ʻike ʻo ia i nā helehelena, pāʻani hoʻi iā Go, a wānana i nā manaʻo o ka mea kūʻai aku. A ʻo ka hana a ka hapa nui o ka poʻe he mea maʻamau; he kakaikahi ka poʻe e hana i ka hana hoʻohālike maoli i loko o kahi keʻena a i ʻole hale hana, ʻoi aku ka nui e like me nā kuhikuhi koʻikoʻi. 'O ia ho'i, aneane hiki i nā kānaka a pau ke pani 'ia e ka 'ike akamai, a i loko o XNUMX mau makahiki "hiki ke" lilo i "hana." A ʻo kekahi hui kūikawā, huahana a hoʻomaka paha e "hana" i kēia.
A nui ke kālā
E nānā . ʻO 4.5 miliona mau mea hoʻokele, 3.5 miliona cashiers, helu mākou i ka uku maʻamau ma 30 tausani kālā i ka makahiki - ʻo kēia nā mākeke kūʻai 100 biliona i kēlā me kēia ma USA wale nō. No ka hoʻohālikelike, ʻo ka loaʻa kālā honua o Facebook no 2018 he $ 56 biliona.
ʻAʻole wau wale nō ka mea ʻike pehea e Google i ka ʻoihana kaulana loa - ʻo ka ʻoihana palaualelo wale nō ʻaʻole i komo i ka heihei i nā kaʻa kaʻa ponoʻī. ʻO nā hale kūʻai me ka mea kūʻai ʻole he kumuhana kaulana hoʻi; ʻO Amazon Go kahi hiʻohiʻona o ke ʻano o ka nānā ʻana o nā pilikua. Akā, e ʻeli hohonu kākou. Ma USA, 1 miliona kanaka e noho ana ma ka papa hookipa. ʻO 400 tausani ka hana ma keʻano he mau luna hoʻomalu ma nā haleʻaina, aʻelua a me ka hapalua miliona e hana ma keʻano he mau kali (ʻaʻole i hoʻokomoʻia nā meaʻai wikiwiki maʻaneʻi, he laina kaʻawale lākou). A ʻoi aku, ʻoi aku, ʻoi aku ... Ke kali nei nā ʻoihana nui a ʻaʻole nui no ka robotization a ma ka hapa nui ʻaʻohe mea wikiwiki e kōkua iā lākou.
He maʻalahi ka helu ʻana i ka palena o ka "hoʻopiʻi" nui. No ke kūkulu ʻana i kahi unicorn, pono ʻoe i kahi waiwai o $ 50 miliona. E manaʻo kākou he 100 miliona ka loaʻa kālā. No ka uku ʻana i 100 miliona, e mālama nā mea kūʻai aku o ka hoʻomaka i ka hapalua piliona ma ka waiho ʻana i nā limahana - ʻo ia ka 20 tausani mau kānaka me ka uku haʻahaʻa o ʻAmelika. ʻO ia ke ʻano he 50 tausani o lākou ma ka mākeke - ʻaʻole e kūkulu hou ʻia ka ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa i kahi manawa kūpono.
He mau kakini, inā ʻaʻole he mau haneli, o ia mau mea kūikawā a me nā mea kūikawā. ʻOiaʻiʻo, i kēlā me kēia hihia aia nā kumu a me nā wehewehe no ke kumu i hiki ʻole ai ka naʻauao artificial ma ʻaneʻi, akā ʻapōpō e hoʻopau ke kānāwai o Moore i kēia kumu. A i ʻole i nehinei. ʻO ka mea mua e hoʻāʻo i ka manawa e kūkulu i kahi hui nui hou, a he mau kakini o lākou, e like me nā ʻoihana. ʻAʻohe mea ʻē aʻe ma mua o ke kākau ʻana i kahi mea kūʻai robot, akā i loko o IT i kēia manawa ʻaʻohe mea hiki ke hoʻokele waiwai - koe wale nō ke kiaʻi robot.
I nā makahiki he 15 i hala iho nei, ua maʻa mākou i ka puka ʻana mai o nā mākeke nunui hou; ua laha ka hopena o ke kamaʻilio maikaʻi i nā ʻoihana like ʻole. ʻAʻole koke e hoʻomaka ka automation nunui hou a me nā robotics e ʻike mau i ka nūhou, a ke kokoke mai nei ka manawa no ka hoʻolauna ʻana o AI. Pono ʻo ia e hoʻopau i kēlā me kēia ʻoihana luhi. A ʻoiai e nānā ka hapa nui i ka mōʻaukala, na ka hapa liʻiliʻi e hana.
Source: www.habr.com