Npog thiab ua si
Hauv tsab xov xwm no kuv xav tham txog qhov teeb meem ntawm cov nyhuv bullwhip, uas tau kawm dav hauv kev xa khoom, thiab tseem tuaj yeem nthuav qhia rau cov kws qhia ntawv thiab cov kws tshaj lij hauv kev tswj hwm kev tswj hwm kev hloov pauv tshiab ntawm kev ua si nrov npias rau qhia logistics. Kev ua si npias hauv kev tshawb fawb ntawm kev tswj cov saw hlau yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev kawm logistics thiab kev xyaum. Nws zoo piav qhia txog cov txheej txheem tswj tsis tau ntawm kev txiav txim hloov pauv thiab cov khoom lag luam o ntawm cov theem sib txawv ntawm cov saw hlau - lub npe hu ua bullwhip effect. Muaj ib zaug ntsib teeb meem hauv kev simulating cov nyhuv bullwhip, kuv txiav txim siab los tsim kuv tus kheej simplified version ntawm npias game (tom qab no hu ua qhov kev ua si tshiab). Paub tias muaj pes tsawg tus kws tshaj lij logistics muaj nyob rau ntawm lub xaib no, thiab tseem xav tias cov lus hais ntawm cov lus ntawm Habr feem ntau nthuav ntau dua li cov ntawv lawv tus kheej, kuv xav hnov cov lus los ntawm cov neeg nyeem txog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm bullwhip effect thiab npias game.
Qhov teeb meem tiag los yog cuav?
Kuv mam li pib los ntawm kev piav qhia txog cov nyhuv bullwhip. Muaj ntau ntau cov kev tshawb fawb tshawb fawb hauv logistics uas tau tshuaj xyuas cov txiaj ntsig bullwhip raws li qhov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib koom tes sib koom ua ke uas muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau kev tswj hwm. Cov nyhuv bullwhip yog qhov nce hauv kev txiav txim hloov pauv ntawm thawj theem ntawm cov khoom siv (sab sauv), uas yog ib qho ntawm cov ntsiab lus theoretical [1] [2] thiab cov txiaj ntsig kev sim ntawm npias game [3]. Raws li cov nyhuv bullwhip, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm qhov kev thov los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev txiav txim los ntawm cov khw muag khoom nyob rau theem kawg ntawm cov saw hlau (kem hauv qab) yog ib txwm qis dua cov neeg muag khoom thiab cov chaw tsim khoom. Cov nyhuv yog, ntawm chav kawm, muaj kev phom sij thiab ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntau zaus hauv kev txiav txim thiab ntau lawm. Kev ua lej, cov nyhuv bullwhip tuaj yeem piav qhia raws li qhov piv ntawm qhov sib txawv lossis coefficients ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm theem (echelons) ntawm cov khoom siv:
BullwhipEffect = VARupstream/VAR downstream
Los yog (nyob ntawm tus kws tshawb fawb txoj kev):
BullwhipEffect=CVupstream/CVdownstream
Cov nyhuv bullwhip muaj nyob rau hauv yuav luag txhua cov ntaub ntawv txawv teb chaws nrov ntawm kev tswj cov khoom. Tsuas muaj ntau qhov kev tshawb fawb tau mob siab rau lub ncauj lus no. Cov kev sib txuas ntawm qhov kawg ntawm tsab xov xwm qhia txog cov haujlwm nto moo tshaj plaws ntawm cov nyhuv no. Raws li kev xav, qhov tshwm sim feem ntau tshwm sim los ntawm qhov tsis muaj cov ntaub ntawv hais txog kev thov, kev yuav khoom ntau, kev ntshai ntawm yav tom ntej tsis txaus thiab nce nqi [1]. Kev tsis txaus siab ntawm cov neeg koom tes ua lag luam los qhia cov ntaub ntawv tseeb txog cov neeg siv khoom xav tau, nrog rau lub sijhawm xa khoom ntev, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam bullwhip [2]. Tseem muaj cov laj thawj puas siab puas ntsws rau cov txiaj ntsig, paub tseeb hauv kev kuaj mob [3]. Rau cov laj thawj pom tseeb, muaj qee qhov piv txwv tshwj xeeb ntawm cov nyhuv bullwhip - ob peb tus neeg xav qhia cov ntaub ntawv hais txog lawv cov xaj thiab cov khoom muag, thiab txawm tias thoob plaws hauv tag nrho cov khoom siv. Txawm li cas los xij, muaj cov neeg tsawg tsawg ntawm cov kws tshawb fawb uas ntseeg tias cov nyhuv bullwhip yog exaggerated.
Raws li txoj cai, cov txiaj ntsig tuaj yeem ua tiav los ntawm kev hloov cov khoom muag thiab hloov cov neeg siv khoom ntawm cov neeg muag khoom thaum muaj kev tsis txaus [4]. Qee cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj pom zoo txhawb qhov kev pom tias cov nyhuv bullwhip yuav raug txwv hauv ntau qhov kev lag luam [5]. Cov neeg tsim khoom thiab cov khw muag khoom feem ntau siv cov txheej txheem kev tsim khoom smoothing thiab lwm yam kev ua kom yuam kev kom ntseeg tau tias cov neeg siv khoom txiav txim hloov pauv tsis dhau. Kuv xav: dab tsi yog qhov xwm txheej nrog cov nyhuv bullwhip nyob rau hauv Russia thiab nyob rau hauv lub post-Soviet qhov chaw feem ntau? Puas muaj cov neeg nyeem (tshwj xeeb yog cov neeg koom nrog hauv cov khoom lag luam analytics thiab xav tau kev kwv yees) pom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo hauv lub neej tiag? Tej zaum, qhov tseeb, cov lus nug ntawm cov nyhuv bullwhip yog nyob deb-ntev thiab ntau lub sijhawm ntawm cov kws tshawb fawb thiab cov tub ntxhais kawm logistics nkim rau nws tsis muaj nuj nqis ...
Kuv tus kheej tau kawm txog cov nyhuv bullwhip raws li cov tub ntxhais kawm tiav thiab thaum npaj ib daim ntawv ntawm kev ua si npias rau lub rooj sib tham. Tom qab ntawd kuv tau npaj ib qho hluav taws xob ntawm kev ua si npias los ua kom pom cov nyhuv bullwhip hauv chav kawm. Kuv yuav piav qhia ntxiv hauv qab no.
Cov no tsis yog cov khoom ua si rau koj ...
Spreadsheet qauv yog dav siv los txheeb xyuas cov teeb meem kev lag luam hauv ntiaj teb. Spreadsheets kuj muaj txiaj ntsig zoo hauv kev cob qhia cov thawj coj yav tom ntej. Cov nyhuv bullwhip, raws li qhov chaw tseem ceeb hauv kev tswj cov saw hlau, muaj ib qho kev lig kev cai ntev heev ntawm kev siv simulations hauv kev kawm, ntawm qhov kev ua si npias yog ib qho piv txwv zoo. MIT thawj zaug tau tshaj tawm thawj qhov kev ua si npias thaum ntxov xyoo 1960, thiab tsis ntev nws tau dhau los ua cov cuab yeej nrov los piav qhia cov khoom siv hluav taws xob. Qhov kev ua si yog ib qho piv txwv classic ntawm System Dynamics qauv, siv tsis tau tsuas yog rau cov hom phiaj kev kawm, tab sis kuj rau kev txiav txim siab hauv kev lag luam tiag tiag, nrog rau kev tshawb fawb. Kev pom, kev rov tsim dua tshiab, kev nyab xeeb, kev siv nyiaj txiag zoo thiab kev nkag mus tau ntawm kev ua si hauv computer loj muab lwm txoj hauv kev rau kev cob qhia hauv kev ua haujlwm, muab cov thawj coj nrog cov cuab yeej muaj txiaj ntsig hauv kev txhawb kev txiav txim siab thaum ua cov kev sim hauv qhov chaw kawm nyab xeeb.
Qhov kev ua si tau ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev simulation rau kev tsim cov tswv yim ua lag luam thiab pab txhawb kev txiav txim siab. Kev ua si ntawm npias classic yog kev ua si hauv pawg thawj coj thiab xav tau kev npaj tseem ceeb ua ntej ua si hauv chav kawm. Cov xib fwb thawj zaug yuav tsum tau daws cov teeb meem xws li cov lus qhia nyuaj, teeb tsa, thiab kev txwv rau cov neeg koom ua si. Cov ntawv tom ntej ntawm kev ua si npias sim ua kom yooj yim siv nrog kev pab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv thev naus laus zis. Txawm hais tias muaj kev txhim kho tseem ceeb nrog rau txhua qhov txuas ntxiv, qhov nyuaj ntawm kev teeb tsa thiab kev siv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv ntau tus neeg siv, muaj ntau qhov xwm txheej tiv thaiv qhov kev ua si los ntawm kev siv dav hauv kev lag luam kev kawm. Kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov kev ua si ntawm npias simulation kev ua si hauv kev tswj cov saw hlau qhia qhov tsis muaj cov cuab yeej siv tau yooj yim thiab pub dawb rau cov kws qhia ntawv hauv thaj chaw. Hauv qhov kev ua si tshiab hu ua Supply Chain Competition Game, kuv xav hais txog qhov teeb meem no ua ntej thiab qhov tseem ceeb. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev qhuab qhia, qhov kev ua si tshiab tuaj yeem piav qhia raws li qhov teeb meem-raws li kev kawm (PBL) uas ua ke nrog kev simulation nrog kev ua si. Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem siv online version ntawm qhov kev ua si tshiab hauv Google Sheets. Txoj hauv kev ua kom muaj kev hloov pauv nyob rau hauv daim ntawv nthuav qhia cov khoom lag luam tus qauv hais txog ob qhov kev sib tw loj hauv kev siv cov kev ua si loj: kev nkag tau yooj yim thiab siv tau yooj yim. Qhov kev ua si no tau muaj rau download tau ob peb xyoos tam sim no ntawm qhov txuas hauv qab no rau pej xeem .
Cov lus piav qhia ntxaws hauv lus Askiv tuaj yeem rub tawm .
Cov lus piav qhia luv luv ntawm qhov kev ua si
Luv luv txog cov theem ntawm qhov kev ua si.
Ib tus neeg siv los saib xyuas qhov kev sib tham ua si (tom qab no hu ua tus kws qhia ntawv) thiab tsawg kawg ntawm plaub tus neeg siv kev ua si (tom qab no hu ua players) ua ke sawv cev rau cov koom nrog hauv kev ua si npias. Cov qauv kev ua si tshiab yog ib lossis ob txoj hlua xa khoom, txhua qhov muaj plaub theem: Cov Khw Muag Khoom ®, Cov Neeg Muag Khoom (W), Tus Muag Khoom (D) thiab Hoobkas (F). Lub neej tiag tiag cov saw hlau yog qhov nyuaj dua, tab sis classic beer saw game yog qhov zoo rau kev kawm.
Rice. 1. Cov khoom siv saw hlau
Txhua ntu kev ua si suav nrog tag nrho 12 lub sijhawm.
Rice. 2. Daim ntawv txiav txim rau txhua tus neeg ua si
Cells nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv muaj tshwj xeeb formatting uas ua rau input teb pom los yog tsis pom rau players nyob ntawm lub sij hawm tam sim no active thiab kev txiav txim ib theem zuj zus, yog li cov players tuaj yeem tsom mus rau qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd. Tus kws qhia ntawv tuaj yeem tswj hwm qhov kev ua haujlwm ntawm qhov kev ua si los ntawm kev tswj hwm vaj huam sib luag, qhov twg cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb thiab cov ntsuas kev ua tau zoo ntawm txhua tus neeg ua si raug taug qab. Cov duab kho tshiab tam sim ntawm txhua daim ntawv pab koj nkag siab sai sai rau cov ntsuas kev ua tau zoo rau cov neeg ua si txhua lub sijhawm. Cov kws qhia tuaj yeem xaiv seb cov neeg siv khoom xav tau los txiav txim siab (xws li linear thiab nonlinear) lossis stochastic (xws li niaj hnub, ib txwm, lognormal, triangular, gamma, thiab exponential).
Ua hauj lwm ntxiv
Qhov kev ua si hauv daim ntawv no tseem nyob deb ntawm qhov zoo meej - nws xav tau kev txhim kho ntxiv ntawm kev ua si hauv online multiplayer xws li tshem tawm qhov yuav tsum tau hloov kho tas li thiab txuag cov ntawv txheeb tom qab txhua tus neeg ua si ua haujlwm. Kuv xav nyeem thiab teb cov lus ntawm cov lus nug hauv qab no:
a) seb cov nyhuv bullwhip puas muaj tiag hauv kev xyaum;
b) Yuav ua li cas pab tau qhov kev ua si npias tuaj yeem ua tau zoo hauv kev qhia logistics thiab yuav ua li cas nws tuaj yeem txhim kho.
ua tim khawv
[1] Lee, H.L., Padmanabhan, V. and Whang, S., 1997. Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect. Management Science, 43(4), pp.546-558.
[2] Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K. thiab Simchi-Levi, D., 2000. Quantifying cov nyhuv bullwhip nyob rau hauv ib tug yooj yim mov saw: Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm forecasting, lead lub sij hawm, thiab cov ntaub ntawv. 46(3), pp. 436-443.
[3] Sterman, J.D., 1989. Kev coj tus cwj pwm coj tus cwj pwm: Kev tsis pom zoo ntawm kev tawm tswv yim hauv kev txiav txim siab tsis zoo. Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev Tshawb Fawb, 35(3), pp.321-339.
[4] Sucky, E., 2009. Cov nyhuv bullwhip hauv cov saw hlau - qhov teeb meem overestimated? International Journal of Production Economics, 118(1), pp.311-322.
[5] Cachon, G.P., Randall, T. and Schmidt, G.M., 2007. In search of the bullwhip effect. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 9(4), pp.457-479.
Tau qhov twg los: www.hab.com