Thaum twg txhua tus yuav tsav tsheb fais fab?

Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 11, 1914, ib nqe lus los ntawm Henry Ford tau tshwm sim hauv New York Times:

"Kuv vam tias hauv ib xyoos peb yuav pib tsim lub tsheb hluav taws xob. Kuv tsis nyiam tham txog tej yam rau xyoo tom ntej, tab sis kuv xav qhia koj ib yam dab tsi txog kuv cov phiaj xwm. Qhov tseeb yog tias Mr. Edison thiab kuv tau ua haujlwm tau ntau xyoo los tsim cov tsheb fais fab uas pheej yig thiab siv tau. Lawv tau ua raws li kev sim thiab peb txaus siab tias txoj hauv kev rau kev vam meej yog pom tseeb. Qhov kev sib tw rau lub tsheb fais fab kom deb li deb tau tsim lub teeb yuag roj teeb uas tuaj yeem ua haujlwm ntev ntev yam tsis tau them rov qab. Yawg Edison tau sim nrog lub roj teeb zoo li no rau qee lub sijhawm. "

Tab sis ib yam dab tsi mus tsis ncaj ncees lawm ...

Thomas Edison nrog Detroit Electric

Qhov kev tshaj tawm no yog ib qho laj thawj txuas ntxiv ntawm kuv tsab xov xwm dhau los "Kev kawm txog kev ua haujlwm logistics raws li txoj cai ntawm kev tsim kho kev lag luam."

qhov twg yog qhov parameter r cuam ​​tshuam tus nqi ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam sib koom, txij li nws yog ib qho kev nthuav dav - qhov siab dua qhov coefficient, qhov nrawm dua cov thev naus laus zis tshiab yuav kov yeej kev lag luam, piv txwv li. Txhua xyoo tshuab yuav tsum tau nthuav dav rau ntau tus neeg vim nws yooj yim. K coefficient piav qhia txog kev loj hlob muaj peev xwm ntawm kev siv tshuab tshiab, i.e. ntawm tus nqi qis ntawm K, thev naus laus zis yuav tsis tuaj yeem ntes tag nrho kev lag luam, tab sis tsuas yog yuav tsum muaj peev xwm kov yeej lub lag luam ntu uas nws yuav nthuav ntau dua li yav dhau los thev naus laus zis.

Cov lus hais txog qhov teeb meem yog nrhiav qhov tsim nyog tsis tau rau qhov sib npaug logistic uas tso cai rau peb los kwv yees txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb fais fab kev lag luam:

• "Xyoo Zero" yog xyoo uas ib nrab ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb muag hauv ntiaj teb yuav muaj lub tshuab hluav taws xob (P0 = 0,5, t = 0);
• kev ua lag luam feem ntau loj hlob tus nqi (r) hluav taws xob tsheb.

Hauv qhov no, cia peb hais tias:

• hluav taws xob tsheb yuav tshem tawm tag nrho cov tsheb nrog lub tshuab hluav taws xob sab hauv (ICE) los ntawm kev ua lag luam (K = 1), vim kuv tsis pom qhov tshwj xeeb uas yuav tso cai rau segmenting cov neeg caij tsheb lag luam.

  Kev ua lag luam rau cov tsheb hnyav thiab cov khoom siv tshwj xeeb tsis raug coj mus rau hauv tus account thaum sau cov qauv, thiab tseem tsis muaj kev lag luam rau cov tsheb fais fab hauv kev lag luam no.

• Tam sim no peb nyob hauv "lub sijhawm tsis zoo" (P(t) <0) thiab hauv kev ua haujlwm peb yuav siv qhov kev sib piv rau "xoom xyoo" rau peb lub sijhawm (t-t0).

Cov txheeb cais ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb muag khoom ntim tau muab los ntawm S, SѓS,.

Hluav taws xob tsheb muag cov txheeb cais muab los ntawm S, SѓS,.

Kev txheeb xyuas ua ntej 2012 ntawm lub tsheb fais fab yog qhov tsawg heev thiab yuav tsis raug coj mus rau hauv tus account hauv txoj kev tshawb no.

Yog li ntawd, peb muaj cov ntaub ntawv hauv qab no:

Txoj Haujlwm los nrhiav Xyoo Zero thiab kev lag luam loj hlob

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math

x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468,  64341693]) # кол-во произведенных легковых машин
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247,  1940147]) # кол-во произведенных легковых электромобилей
y = y2/y1 #доля электромобилей в общем производстве автомобилей

ymax=1 #первоначальное максимальное отклонение статистических данных от значений функции
Gmax=2025 #год для начало поиска "нулевого года"
rmax=0.35 #начальный коэффициент
k=1 #принят "1" из предпосылки, что электромобили полностью заменят легковые автомобили с ДВС
p0=0.5 # процент рынка в "нулевой год"
for j in range(10): # цикл перебора "нулевых годов"
    x0=2025+j
    r=0.35
    
    for i in range(10): # цикл перебора коэффициента в каждом "нулевом году"
            r=0.25+0.02*i
            y4=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))-y 
           # print(str(x0).ljust(20), str(r).ljust(20), max(abs(y4))) 
            if max(abs(y4))<=ymax: # поиск минимального из максимальных отклонений внутри каждого года при каждом коэффициенте r
                ymax=max(abs(y4))
                Gmax=x0
                rmax=r
print(str(Gmax).ljust(20), str(rmax).ljust(20), ymax) # вывод "нулевого года", коэффициента r и максимального из отклонений от функции

Raws li qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev zov me nyuam, cov txiaj ntsig hauv qab no tau raug xaiv:
Xyoo xoom yog 2028.
Kev loj hlob coefficient - 0.37

Qhov siab tshaj qhov sib txawv ntawm cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais los ntawm tus nqi ua haujlwm yog 0.005255.

Daim duab ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm 2012 thiab 2019 zoo li no:

Daim duab kawg nrog kev kwv yees txog 2050 zoo li no:

Daim ntawv qhia qhia txog kev txiav tawm ntawm 99% ntawm tag nrho cov lag luam, piv txwv li. Los ntawm 2040, hluav taws xob tsheb yuav hloov tag nrho cov tsheb nrog combustion engine.

Function graphing program

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math

x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468,  64341693])
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247,  1940147])
y = y2/y1

k=1
p0=0.5

x0=2028   
r=0.37 
y1=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))
#Строим график функции на отрезке между 2012 и 2019 годами
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5")
plt.grid()
ax.plot(x, y, 'o', color='tab:brown') 
ax.plot(x, y1)
#Строим график функции на отрезке между 2010 и 2050 годами
x = np.linspace(2010, 2050)
y2 = [k*p0*math.e**(r*(i-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(i-x0))-1)) for i in x]
y3 = 0.99+0*x
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5") 
ax.set_xlim([2010, 2050])
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
plt.grid()             
plt.plot(x, y2, x, y3)

tshawb pom

Ua raws tib lub ntsiab lus raws li thaum piav qhia txog keeb kwm ntawm kev txhim kho cov tsheb nrog lub tshuab hluav taws xob sab hauv, kuv tau sim kwv yees txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb hluav taws xob raws li cov ntaub ntawv muaj nyob.

Cov txiaj ntsig tau pom tau hais tias los ntawm 2030, ib nrab ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb muag hauv ntiaj teb yuav muaj lub tshuab hluav taws xob, thiab los ntawm 2040, cov neeg caij tsheb nrog cov tshuab hluav taws xob sab hauv yuav yog qhov qub.

Tau kawg, tom qab xyoo 2030, qee cov neeg yuav tsav tsheb roj av uas lawv yuav ua ntej 2030, tab sis lawv yuav paub tias lawv qhov kev yuav khoom tom ntej yuav yog lub tsheb hluav taws xob.
Qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov tsheb fais fab yog 4 npaug siab dua qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov tsheb nrog lub tshuab hluav taws xob sab hauv, uas qhia tau tias cov thev naus laus zis tshiab tau nkag mus rau peb lub neej ntau dua thiab nrawm dua, dhau los ua ib feem ntawm peb lub neej niaj hnub (ntawm no peb nco ntsoov cov xov tooj ntawm tes) .

Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej, qhov teeb meem uas Edison tsis tuaj yeem daws tau yuav tsum tau daws - lub roj teeb muaj peev xwm txaus uas yuav tso cai ntev dua ntawm cov chaw them nqi.

Txhawm rau tsim kom muaj kev sib txuas ntawm cov chaw them nqi sib npaug rau lub network ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb roj uas twb muaj lawm, nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum tau ua kom cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas twb muaj lawm hauv cov nroog loj thiab cov kev loj.

Tsis tas li ntawd, kev loj hlob ntawm kev muag khoom ntawm cov tsheb fais fab yuav raug cuam tshuam Jevans tus paradox, tab sis nws kuj hampered roj amid poob thov rau thee.

PS
Yog tias Edison muaj peev xwm daws tau qhov teeb meem uas tau muab rau nws, ces "hnub nyoog roj" yuav tsis tau pib ...

Tsuas yog cov neeg siv sau npe tuaj yeem koom nrog hauv daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas. Kos npe rau hauvthov.

Thaum twg txhua tus yuav tsav tsheb fais fab?

• 9,5%los ntawm 2030, txhua tus yuav hloov mus rau lub tsheb fais fab, tsis yog ib nrab ntawm 18

• 20,0%Los ntawm 2040, txhua leej txhua tus yuav twv yuav raug hu mus rau hluav taws xob tsheb38

• 48,4%tsis ntxov dua 2050

• 22,1%Lub tsheb fais fab yuav tsis hloov tsheb roj av42

190 cov neeg siv pov npav. 37 cov neeg siv txwv tsis pub siv.

Tau qhov twg los: www.hab.com