Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: debriefing

Peb txheeb tawm AI thev naus laus zis ntawm 2019 thiab tsis txaj muag muab piv rau 2017 kev kwv yees.

Ua ntej, Gartner Hype Cycle yog dab tsi? Qhov no yog ib hom kev voj voog ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm technology, los yog qhov kev hloov ntawm hype theem mus rau nws cov khoom siv. Tam sim no yuav muaj daim duab nrog kev txhais lus kom pom tseeb txhua yam. Thiab hauv qab no yog cov lus piav qhia.

Thawj theem. npau taws. Tua tawm. Cov thev naus laus zis tau tshwm sim, nws tau tham txog thawj zaug los ntawm kev paub txog nerds, thiab tom qab ntawd los ntawm cov pej xeem fanatical; Qhov kev zoo siab yog maj mam loj hlob.

Qhov thib ob theem. pheej yig. Lub ncov ntawm inflated expectations. Qee lub sij hawm, txhua leej txhua tus twb tau tham txog cov cuab yeej technology, sim siv nws, thiab cov neeg txawj ntse tshaj plaws tau muag nws ntawm tus nqi qis.

Peb theem. kev nyuaj siab Tsis txaus siab. Cov cuab yeej siv tau nquag siv thiab feem ntau ua tsis tiav vim qhov tsis txaus thiab kev txwv. "Nws yog txhua yam bullshit!" - los ntawm no thiab muaj. Qhov kev zoo siab poob qis heev (tus nqi tag, feem ntau ib yam nkaus).

Plaub theem. kev tsis pom zoo Ua haujlwm ntawm cov kab. Kev siv tshuab tau raug txhim kho, cov teeb meem raug daws. Maj mam, cov tuam txhab ua tib zoo sim siv cov thev naus laus zis thiab, hurray, txhua yam ua haujlwm zoo.

theem tsib. Kev saws me nyuam Kev tsim khoom ua haujlwm. Cov thev naus laus zis tau txais nws qhov chaw zoo tsim nyog hauv kev ua lag luam thiab ntsiag to ua haujlwm, txhim kho, thiab nyiam.

Dab tsi yog trending?

Rov qab mus rau 2019 hype voj voog. Gartner tso tawm nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, ib daim ntawv tshaj tawm txog cov txuj ci txuj ci thev naus laus zis nyob rau theem twg, thiab thaum twg lawv yuav pib ua haujlwm tau zoo. Daim duab hauv qab no, cov lus pom hauv qab daim duab.

Cov thev naus laus zis "Speech Recognition" thiab "Process Acceleration Using GPU" yog ua ntej los ntawm cov npoo loj thiab twb nyob rau theem "Productive Work" lawm. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias lawv yuav tsum tau thov sai, vim tias lawv twb muab kev sib tw kom zoo dua rau lawv cov tswv.

Kev kawm tshuab tsis siv neeg (AutoML) thiab chatbots yog tam sim no ntawm lub ncov ntawm hype. Ntawd yog, txhua leej txhua tus tab tom tham txog lawv, ntau tus tab tom siv lawv, tab sis nws yuav siv sijhawm li 2 txog 5 teev los coj cov thev naus laus zis mus rau tus qauv xav tau.

Cov tsheb uas peb tau siv tam sim no kuj muaj ntau dua li niaj hnub. Autonomous tsheb tshuab yog yuav luag kuaj hauv qab. Hauv qhov no, qhov no yog qhov zoo, vim tias kev ua haujlwm zoo nyob tom ntej. Txawm li cas los xij, Gartner kwv yees tias nws yuav siv sijhawm tsawg kawg 10 xyoo los txhim kho thiab hloov kho.

Qhov twg yog ib zaug-hype drones thiab virtual kev muaj tiag niaj hnub no? Txhua yam nyob hauv qhov chaw - Gartner suav nrog cov drones hauv thaj tsam ntawm Edge AI (cov pawg ciam teb ntawm AI), thiab kev muaj tiag virtual tau dhau los ua ib feem ntawm kev txawj ntse Augmented. Ob lub ntsiab lus, los ntawm txoj kev, tam sim no nyob rau theem pib thiab muaj kev kwv yees zoo: 2-5 xyoos kom txog rau thaum tsim khoom lag luam.

Pom zoo

Ntawm cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb: Robotic txheej txheem automation software - suab txaus ntshai, tab sis qhov tseeb nws yog thaum tus neeg hlau hloov cov haujlwm niaj hnub. Npau suav phem rau cov neeg ua haujlwm uas tsis txawj ntse; txawm li cas los xij kawm Harvard Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam hais tias yuav tsis muaj kev tawm haujlwm, tab sis kev tsim khoom yuav nce ntxiv. Noj thaj av ntseeg. Kev siv tshuab yuav dhau lub ncov ntawm qhov tsis muaj npe thiab kev thuam dav dav hauv 2 xyoos, thiab tom qab ntawd kis mus rau txhua qhov chaw.

Ntawm cov technologies uas evangelists thiab infogypsies ntawm tag nrho cov kab txaij yuav tham txog en masse nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, "neuromorphic khoom" yog tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nthuav. Cov no yog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob (chips) uas xyaum natural biological structures ntawm peb lub paj hlwb nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm lub zog efficiency. Txhawm rau muab nws yooj yim heev, nws yog hais txog kev ua tau zoo ua tsaug rau kev faib ua haujlwm (asynchronous hloov kho ntawm neurons). Giants xws li IBM thiab Intel twb nyuaj ua hauj lwm tsim neuromorphic chips. Tab sis John Connor cov tub rog muaj sij hawm los npaj rau hnub ntawm kev puas tsuaj - Gartner tau muab cov thev naus laus zis ntau txog 10 xyoo kom paub tab.

Feem ntau, lawv tham ntau txog Digital Ethics, tab sis lawv tsis nrawm los siv lawv. Cov kev taw qhia tau muab faib rau ib pawg ntawm AI spheres: nws txhais tau tias nws yuav tsim nyog los sib sau ua ke qee qhov kev coj ncaj ncees, cov qauv thiab cov qauv rau kev sau cov ntaub ntawv, kev siv AI hauv lub neej, feem ntau, yog li ntawd nws yuav zoo li. neeg. Thaum kawg, ua tib zoo saib ntawm Asimov.

Xyoo 2017 vs 2019

Nws yog funny, tab sis nyob rau hauv 2017 txhua yam yog txawv, tsis muaj ib qho kev sib cais hype rau AI: AI thev naus laus zis tau nyob hauv qhov chaw ntawm kev tsim cov thev naus laus zis (Emerging Technologies) nrog rau blockchain thiab qhov tseeb ntxiv.

Kev kawm tshuab thiab kev kawm tob tau nyob ntawm hype Olympus hauv 2017, thiab hauv 2019 lawv txuas ntxiv lawv txoj hauv kev poob qis, uas yog ua hauj lwm tsim nyog.

Los ntawm txoj kev, drones tau txav los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws kom poob qis thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, thiab hauv 2019 lawv tau rov qab mus rau qhov siab tshaj plaws. Thiab qhov no tshwm sim, yog.

Hauv 2019, lub voj voog suav nrog 8 lub thev naus laus zis tshiab. Ntawm lawv yog cov kev pabcuam huab AI (Cloud Services), AI Marketplaces (Kev Lag Luam), Quantum Computing nrog AI (Quantum Computing). Feem ntau, paub zoo (nyob rau hauv lub voj voog nqaim) cov cuab yeej uas pib tso AI rau ntawm txoj kev.

Tau qhov twg los: www.hab.com