{"id":52568,"date":"2019-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:00:20","slug":"gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/hr\/blog\/news\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","title":{"rendered":"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analiza leta","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rasporedili smo AI tehnologije iz 2019. po kategorijama i bez srama ih usporedili s prognozama iz 2017. godine.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analiza leta\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/9e39aceb55783b5f072efe5b0a94672c.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n<p>Prvo, \u0161to je Gartnerov Hype Cycle? To je svojevrsni ciklus zrelosti tehnologije, a to\u010dnije prijelaz s faze hypea na produktivnu upotrebu. Sada \u0107e uslijediti grafikon s prijevodom, kako bismo to vizualizirali. <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/en\/research\/methodologies\/gartner-hype-cycle\">sve.<\/a><\/noindex>. A dolje su obja\u0161njenja.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analiza leta\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/18e511b34c2a7c007f1b4e01acfb0ef4.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Prva faza. ~Bijes~. <strong>Lansiranje.<\/strong> Tehnologija se pojavljuje, najprije je raspravljaju osvije\u0161teni entuzijasti, a potom i strastvena javnost; postupno se stvara uzbu\u0111enje.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Druga faza. ~Trgovina~. <strong>Vrh pretjeranih o\u010dekivanja.<\/strong> U nekom trenutku svi govore o tehnologiji, poku\u0161avaju je implementirati, a najsnala\u017eljiviji \u2013 prodati je po stravi\u010dnoj cijeni.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Tre\u0107a faza. ~Depresija~. <strong>Pad interesa.<\/strong> Tehnologija se aktivno implementira i \u010desto propada zbog nedostataka i ograni\u010denja. \"Sve je to besmislica!\" \u2013 \u010duje se s raznih strana. Uzbu\u0111enje naglo opada (cjena, \u010desto, tako\u0111er).<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>\u010cetvrta faza. ~Odbacivanje~. <strong>Rad na gre\u0161kama.<\/strong> Tehnologija se usavr\u0161ava, problemi se rje\u0161avaju. Postupno kompanije pomalo poku\u0161avaju implementirati tehnologiju i, hura, sve ide savr\u0161eno.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Peta faza. ~Prihva\u0107anje~. <strong>Produktivno rad.<\/strong> Tehnologija osvajanja mjesto koje joj pripada na tr\u017ei\u0161tu i mirno radi, razvija se, svi\u0111a se.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"chto-v-trende\">\u0160to je u trendu?<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Vra\u0107aju\u0107i se unatrag na hype ciklus 2019. godine. Tvrtka Gartner <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2019\">izdala<\/a><\/noindex> u rujnu objavila izvje\u0161taj o tome koje tehnologije umjetne inteligencije se nalaze u kojoj fazi, i kada \u0107e po\u010deti raditi produktivno. Grafikon dolje, komentari ispod grafikona.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analiza leta\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/e97ad21859354ea40467c07c99537f65.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>S velikom razlikom i ve\u0107 u fazi \"Produktivno rad\" nalaze se tehnologije \"Prepoznavanje govora\" i \"Ubrzanje procesa uz pomo\u0107 GPU-a\". To zna\u010di da ih trebate hitno primijeniti, jer ve\u0107 daju konkurentsku prednost svojim vlasnicima.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Automatsko u\u010denje strojeva (AutoML) i chatbotovi su sada na vrhuncu hypea. To zna\u010di da svi o njima pri\u010daju, mnogi ih implementiraju, ali za dovo\u0111enje tehnologija do zadanih standarda trebat \u0107e od 2 do 5 godina, uvjetno.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Uobi\u010dajeni strojevi su tako\u0111er vi\u0161e nego u trendu. Tehnologija \"autonomna vozila\" gotovo dodiruje dno. U ovom slu\u010daju to je dobro, jer je pred nama produktivno rad. Me\u0111utim, prema procjenama Gartnera, bit \u0107e potrebna najmanje 10 godina za daljnji razvoj i prilagodbu.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Gdje se danas nalaze neko\u0107 popularni dronovi i virtualna stvarnost? Sve je na svom mjestu \u2013 Gartner je uklju\u010dio dronove u podru\u010dje Edge AI (kategorije koje se grani\u010de s AI), a virtualna stvarnost postala je dio Augmented Intelligence (pro\u0161irenog inteligencije). Obe teme, usput, su sada u fazi lansiranja i imaju pozitivnu prognozu: 2-5 godina do produktivne upotrebe na tr\u017ei\u0161tu.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"perspektivy\">Perspektive<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Me\u0111u perspektivnim zna\u010dajkama: Roboti\u010dki softver za automatizaciju procesa (Robotic process automation software) \u2013 zvu\u010di zastra\u0161uju\u0107e, ali zapravo se radi o tome da robot zamjenjuje rutinske radnje. No\u0107na mora nisko kvalificiranog osoblja; me\u0111utim, <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oracle.com\/a\/ocom\/docs\/artificial-intelligence\/hbr-pulse-survey.pdf\">istra\u017eivanje<\/a><\/noindex> Harvard Business Review tvrdi: otkaza ne\u0107e biti, ali \u0107e produktivnost rada porasti. Ima <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iZJ6W803zaU\">osnova<\/a><\/noindex> vjerovati. Tehnologija \u0107e za 2 godine pro\u0107i vrhunac nepPopularity i op\u0107eg preziranja, a potom \u0107e se ra\u0161iriti svuda.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Od tehnologija o kojima \u0107e masovno govoriti evangelisti i infovjetitelji svih vrsta, posebno nas je zainteresiralo \"neuromorfno opremanje\". To su elektri\u010dni ure\u0111aji (\u010dipovi) koji <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/neuromorphic-hardware-trying-to-put-brain-into-chips-222132f7e4de\">imituju<\/a><\/noindex> prirodne biolo\u0161ke strukture na\u0161eg \u017eiv\u010danog sustava s aspekta energetske u\u010dinkovitosti. Ako to pojednostavimo, radi se o superproduktivnosti zahvaljuju\u0107i podjeli rada (asinhronim a\u017euriranjem neurona). Giganti poput IBM-a i Intela ve\u0107 aktivno rade na stvaranju neuromorfnih \u010dipova. No vojska Johna Connora ima vremena pripremiti se za dan obra\u010duna \u2013 Gartner je predvidio da \u0107e tehnologija dose\u0107i zrelost za \u010dak 10 godina. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>O digitalnoj etici (Digital Ethics), \u0161to je karakteristi\u010dno, puno pri\u010daju, ali implementacije ne \u017eure. Ova tema je izdvojena u posebnu kategoriju podru\u010dja AI: misli se na to da bi se trebali utvrditi neki eti\u010dki principi, norme i standardi prikupljanja podataka, uklju\u010divanja AI u \u017eivot, op\u0107enito, da bi bilo kao kod <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk\/ai-and-digital-ethics\">ljudi<\/a><\/noindex>. Na kraju, da pogledamo kako je to zamislio Asimov. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"2017-vs-2019\">2017 naspram 2019<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Zabavno, ali 2017. sve je bilo <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017\/\">drugo<\/a><\/noindex>, \u010dak niti jedan hype ciklus za AI nije bio predvi\u0111en: tehnologije AI su se kretale u lokomotivi tr\u017ei\u0161nih tehnologija (Emerging Technologies) zajedno s blockchainom i pro\u0161irenom stvarno\u0161\u0107u. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Strojno u\u010denje i duboko u\u010denje 2017. bile su na olimpijadi hypea, a 2019. nastavili su svoj put prema opadanju, odnosno <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/vc.ru\/tribuna\/81813-zhivoy-primer-kompyuternogo-zreniya-v-promyshlennosti\">produktivnom radu<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Usput, dronovi su se nekoliko godina kretali od vrhunca do opadanja, a 2019. su se ponovo vratili ka vrhuncu. Takve stvari se de\u0161avaju, da. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>U 2019. godini u ciklus je u\u0161lo 8 novih tehnologija. Me\u0111u njima su usluge u oblaku sa ve\u0161ta\u010dkom inteligencijom (Cloud Services), tr\u017eni alati sa ve\u0161ta\u010dkom inteligencijom (Marketplaces), kvantno ra\u010dunarstvo sa ve\u0161ta\u010dkom inteligencijom (Quantum Computing). Uglavnom poznati alati (u u\u017eim krugovima) koji po\u010dinju da se baziraju na AI.<\/p>\n<p>Izvor: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/post\/475032\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0441 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u043c 2017 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0412\u043e-\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 Gartner Hype Cycle? \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b \u0437\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0445\u0430\u0439\u043f\u0430 \u043a \u0435\u0451 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044e. \u0421\u0435\u0439\u0447\u0430\u0441 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a \u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0441\u0451. \u0410 \u0432\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u044f. \u0336\u0413\u0336\u043d\u0336\u0435\u0336\u0432\u0336. \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a. \u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f, \u0435\u0451 \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[702],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0441 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