{"id":52568,"date":"2019-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:00:20","slug":"gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/hu\/blog\/news\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","title":{"rendered":"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: rep\u00fcl\u00e9s-elemz\u00e9s","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2019-ben rendszerezt\u00fck az AI technol\u00f3gi\u00e1kat, \u00e9s sz\u00e9gyen n\u00e9lk\u00fcl \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edtottuk \u0151ket a 2017-es el\u0151rejelz\u00e9ssel.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: rep\u00fcl\u00e9s-elemz\u00e9s\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/9e39aceb55783b5f072efe5b0a94672c.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n<p>El\u0151sz\u00f6r is, mi az a Gartner Hype Cycle? Ez egyfajta technol\u00f3giai \u00e9retts\u00e9gi ciklus, pontosabban a hype f\u00e1zisb\u00f3l a term\u00e9keny haszn\u00e1latra val\u00f3 \u00e1tt\u00e9r\u00e9s. Most k\u00f6vetkezik egy grafikon ford\u00edt\u00e1ssal, hogy szeml\u00e9letes legyen <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/en\/research\/methodologies\/gartner-hype-cycle\">Minden, aki \u00f6t \u00e9v alatt elvesz\u00edti a felhaszn\u00e1l\u00f3inak fel\u00e9t, Nagy K\u00f6v\u00e9r Sikertelens\u00e9gnek sz\u00e1m\u00edt. Neked naprak\u00e9sznek kell lenned a platformok vil\u00e1g\u00e1ban. De \u00e9ppen itt a r\u00e9gi verzi\u00f3k t\u00e1mogat\u00e1s\u00e1nak visszavon\u00e1sa fog t\u00f6nkretenni. Mert minden alkalommal, amikor megszabadulsz egy r\u00e9sz\u00e9t a fejleszt\u0151knek, (a) v\u00e9gleg elvesz\u00edted \u0151ket, mert d\u00fch\u00f6sek lesznek r\u00e1d a szerz\u0151d\u00e9s megszeg\u00e9se miatt, \u00e9s (b) \u00e1tadod \u0151ket a versenyt\u00e1rsaidnak.<\/a><\/noindex>. Lent pedig a magyar\u00e1zatok.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: rep\u00fcl\u00e9s-elemz\u00e9s\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/18e511b34c2a7c007f1b4e01acfb0ef4.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Els\u0151 szakasz. \u0336Harag\u0336. <strong>Ind\u00edt\u00e1s.<\/strong> A technol\u00f3gia megjelenik, el\u0151sz\u00f6r a t\u00e1j\u00e9kozott kock\u00e1k besz\u00e9lnek r\u00f3la, majd a fanatikus k\u00f6z\u00f6ns\u00e9g; fokozatosan n\u00f6vekszik a felhajt\u00e1s.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>M\u00e1sodik szakasz. \u0336Piac\u0336. <strong>A t\u00falzott elv\u00e1r\u00e1sok cs\u00facsa.<\/strong> Egy bizonyos ponton m\u00e1r mindenki besz\u00e9l a technol\u00f3gi\u00e1r\u00f3l, pr\u00f3b\u00e1lja bevezetni, \u00e9s a leg\u00fcgyesebbek \u2013 dr\u00e1g\u00e1n eladni.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Harmadik szakasz. \u0336Depresszi\u00f3\u0336. <strong>Az \u00e9rdekl\u0151d\u00e9s cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se.<\/strong> A technol\u00f3gi\u00e1t akt\u00edvan bevezetik, gyakran kudarcot vall a hi\u00e1nyoss\u00e1gok \u00e9s korl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok miatt. \"Ez csak h\u00fclyes\u00e9g!\" \u2013 hallatszik erre-arra. A felhajt\u00e1s hirtelen cs\u00f6kken (az \u00e1r, gyakran szint\u00e9n).<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Negyedik szakasz. \u0336Elutas\u00edt\u00e1s\u0336. <strong>Hib\u00e1k kijav\u00edt\u00e1sa.<\/strong> A technol\u00f3gia fejleszt\u00e9s alatt \u00e1ll, a probl\u00e9m\u00e1k megold\u00f3dnak. Fokozatosan a c\u00e9gek \u00f3vatosan pr\u00f3b\u00e1lj\u00e1k bevezetni a technol\u00f3gi\u00e1t, \u00e9s, hurr\u00e1, minden csod\u00e1latosan m\u0171k\u00f6dik.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6t\u00f6dik szakasz. \u0336Felsz\u00edv\u00f3d\u00e1s\u0336. <strong>Term\u00e9keny munka.<\/strong> A technol\u00f3gia elnyeri meg\u00e9rdemelt hely\u00e9t a piacon, \u00e9s nyugodtan m\u0171k\u00f6dik, fejl\u0151dik, kedvelik.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"chto-v-trende\">Mi a trend?<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Visszat\u00e9rve a 2019-es hype ciklusra. A Gartner c\u00e9g <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2019\">kiadta<\/a><\/noindex> szeptemberben jelent\u00e9st tett k\u00f6zz\u00e9 arr\u00f3l, hogy a mesters\u00e9ges intelligencia technol\u00f3gi\u00e1i melyik szakaszban vannak, \u00e9s mikor kezdenek term\u00e9keny m\u00f3don m\u0171k\u00f6dni. Az al\u00e1bbi grafikon \u00e9s a megjegyz\u00e9sek a grafikon alatt.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: rep\u00fcl\u00e9s-elemz\u00e9s\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/e97ad21859354ea40467c07c99537f65.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>J\u00f3 messze \u00e9s m\u00e1r a \"Term\u00e9keny munka\" szakaszban \u00e1llnak a \"Besz\u00e9d\u00e9szlel\u00e9s\" \u00e9s a \"GPU haszn\u00e1lat\u00e1val t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 folyamatgyors\u00edt\u00e1s\" technol\u00f3gi\u00e1k. Ez azt jelenti, hogy ezeket s\u00fcrg\u0151sen alkalmazni kell, mivel m\u00e1r versenyel\u0151nyt biztos\u00edtanak a tulajdonosoknak.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>A g\u00e9pi tanul\u00e1s automatiz\u00e1l\u00e1sa (AutoML) \u00e9s a chatbotok jelenleg a hype cs\u00facs\u00e1n \u00e1llnak. Teh\u00e1t mindenki r\u00f3luk besz\u00e9l, sokan bevezetik \u0151ket, de a technol\u00f3gi\u00e1k megfelel\u0151 szintre juttat\u00e1sa 2-5 \u00e9vig tarthat.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>A sz\u00e1munkra megszokott g\u00e9pek is j\u00f3l l\u00e1that\u00f3an n\u00e9pszer\u0171ek. Az \"auton\u00f3m k\u00f6zleked\u00e9si eszk\u00f6z\u00f6k\" technol\u00f3gia majdnem el\u00e9rte a m\u00e9lypontot. Ebben az esetben ez j\u00f3, mivel el\u0151re term\u00e9keny munka v\u00e1r r\u00e1nk. Azonban a Gartner becsl\u00e9sei szerint a kidolgoz\u00e1sra \u00e9s az alkalmazkod\u00e1sra legal\u00e1bb 10 \u00e9v sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Hol vannak ma az egykor divatos dr\u00f3nok \u00e9s a virtu\u00e1lis val\u00f3s\u00e1g? Minden a hely\u00e9n van \u2013 a Gartner a dr\u00f3nokat az Edge AI ter\u00fclet\u00e9re sorolta (az AI-val hat\u00e1ros kateg\u00f3ri\u00e1k), a virtu\u00e1lis val\u00f3s\u00e1g pedig a kiterjesztett intelligencia (Augmented intelligence) r\u00e9sz\u00e9v\u00e9 v\u00e1lt. Egy\u00e9bk\u00e9nt mindk\u00e9t t\u00e9ma jelenleg tesztel\u00e9si f\u00e1zisban van, \u00e9s pozit\u00edv el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st kapott: 2-5 \u00e9v, am\u00edg a piacra l\u00e9p.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"perspektivy\">Kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>A j\u00f6vedelmez\u0151 funkci\u00f3k k\u00f6z\u00fcl: Robotiz\u00e1lt szoftver a folyamatok automatiz\u00e1l\u00e1s\u00e1ra (Robotic process automation software) \u2013 ijeszt\u0151en hangzik, de a val\u00f3s\u00e1gban arr\u00f3l van sz\u00f3, hogy a robotok helyettes\u00edtik a rutinfeladatokat. A rossz h\u00edr a alacsonyan k\u00e9pzett munkaer\u0151 sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra; azonban <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oracle.com\/a\/ocom\/docs\/artificial-intelligence\/hbr-pulse-survey.pdf\">kutat\u00e1s<\/a><\/noindex> a Harvard Business Review azt \u00e1ll\u00edtja: nem lesznek elbocs\u00e1t\u00e1sok, de a munka termel\u00e9kenys\u00e9ge n\u0151ni fog. Van <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iZJ6W803zaU\">okunk<\/a><\/noindex> hinni. A technol\u00f3gia 2 \u00e9ven bel\u00fcl \u00e1tl\u00e9pi a n\u00e9pszer\u0171tlens\u00e9g \u00e9s a megvet\u00e9s cs\u00facs\u00e1t, majd elterjed minden\u00fctt.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen \u00e9rdekesek azok a technol\u00f3gi\u00e1k, amelyeket az evang\u00e9liz\u00e1torok \u00e9s az inform\u00e1ci\u00f3s sz\u00e9lh\u00e1mosok mindenn\u00e9l t\u00f6bbsz\u00f6r emlegetnek csak a j\u00f6v\u0151ben, mint p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a \"neuromorfi hardware\". Ezek elektromos eszk\u00f6z\u00f6k (chippek), amelyek <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/neuromorphic-hardware-trying-to-put-brain-into-chips-222132f7e4de\">ut\u00e1nozz\u00e1k<\/a><\/noindex> idegrendszer\u00fcnk term\u00e9szetes biol\u00f3giai strukt\u00far\u00e1it energiahat\u00e9konys\u00e1g szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l. Ha nagyon leegyszer\u0171s\u00edtj\u00fck, akkor ez a szupertermel\u00e9kenys\u00e9gr\u0151l sz\u00f3l, amely a munka megoszt\u00e1s\u00e1val (aszimmetrikus neuronfriss\u00edt\u00e9ssel) \u00e9rhet\u0151 el. Olyan \u00f3ri\u00e1sok, mint az IBM \u00e9s az Intel m\u00e1r g\u0151zer\u0151vel dolgoznak neuromorf chipek l\u00e9trehoz\u00e1s\u00e1n. De John Connor hadsereg\u00e9nek van ideje felk\u00e9sz\u00fclni a k\u00f6lcs\u00f6n napj\u00e1ra \u2013 a Gartner t\u00edz \u00e9vet sz\u00e1nt a technol\u00f3giai \u00e9r\u00e9sre. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>A digit\u00e1lis etik\u00e1r\u00f3l (Digital Ethics) besz\u00e9lnek sokat, ami jellemz\u0151, de az alkalmaz\u00e1ssal nem sietnek. Ezt a ter\u00fcletet k\u00fcl\u00f6n kateg\u00f3ri\u00e1ba sorolj\u00e1k az AI-szf\u00e9ra: a l\u00e9nyeg, hogy valamilyen etikai elveket, norm\u00e1kat \u00e9s standardokat kellene r\u00f6gz\u00edteni az adatgy\u0171jt\u00e9s \u00e9s az AI \u00e9letbe val\u00f3 bevezet\u00e9s\u00e9re vonatkoz\u00f3an, \u00e1ltal\u00e1ban, hogy \u00fagy legyen, mint <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk\/ai-and-digital-ethics\">emberek<\/a><\/noindex>. V\u00e9g\u00fcl is, \u00e9rdemes lenne Asimovt\u00f3l is p\u00e9ld\u00e1t venni. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"2017-vs-2019\">2017 vs 2019<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Vicces, de 2017-ben minden <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017\/\">m\u00e1s volt<\/a><\/noindex>, m\u00e9g az AI-nek k\u00fcl\u00f6n hype ciklust sem sz\u00e1ntak: az AI technol\u00f3gi\u00e1k a fejl\u0151d\u0151 technol\u00f3gi\u00e1k (Emerging Technologies) mozdonyaiv\u00e1 v\u00e1ltak a blokkl\u00e1nccal \u00e9s a kiterjesztett val\u00f3s\u00e1ggal egy\u00fctt. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>A g\u00e9pi tanul\u00e1s \u00e9s a m\u00e9lytanul\u00e1s 2017-ben a hype cs\u00facs\u00e1n volt, \u00e9s 2019-ben folytatt\u00e1k az el\u00e9rhet\u0151 munk\u00e1jukat a cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s fel\u00e9, azaz <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/vc.ru\/tribuna\/81813-zhivoy-primer-kompyuternogo-zreniya-v-promyshlennosti\">a termel\u00e9keny munk\u00e1t<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Egy\u00e9bk\u00e9nt a dr\u00f3nok \u00e9veken \u00e1t a cs\u00facsr\u00f3l a hanyatl\u00e1sra mentek, de 2019-ben visszat\u00e9rtek a cs\u00facs el\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9nek megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9hez. Ilyen is el\u0151fordul, igen. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>2019-ben 8 \u00faj technol\u00f3gia l\u00e9pett a ciklusba. K\u00f6z\u00f6tt\u00fck mesters\u00e9ges intelligencia alap\u00fa felh\u0151szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok (Cloud Services), mesters\u00e9ges intelligencia piacterek (Marketplaces) \u00e9s kvantumsz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1s mesters\u00e9ges intelligenci\u00e1val (Quantum Computing). \u00d6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben j\u00f3l ismert (sz\u0171k k\u00f6r\u00f6kben) eszk\u00f6z\u00f6k, amelyek kezdenek AI alapokra \u00e9p\u00fclni.<\/p>\n<p>Forr\u00e1s: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/post\/475032\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0441 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u043c 2017 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0412\u043e-\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 Gartner Hype Cycle? \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b \u0437\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0445\u0430\u0439\u043f\u0430 \u043a \u0435\u0451 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044e. \u0421\u0435\u0439\u0447\u0430\u0441 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a \u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0441\u0451. \u0410 \u0432\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u044f. \u0336\u0413\u0336\u043d\u0336\u0435\u0336\u0432\u0336. \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a. \u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f, \u0435\u0451 \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[702],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta 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