{"id":52568,"date":"2019-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:00:20","slug":"gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/no\/blog\/news\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","title":{"rendered":"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse av flyvninger","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vi har systematisert AI-teknologier fra 2019 og \u00e6rlig sammenlignet dem med prognosen fra 2017.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse av flyvninger\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/9e39aceb55783b5f072efe5b0a94672c.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n<p>For det f\u00f8rste, hva er Gartner Hype Cycle? Det er en slags modenhetskjede for teknologi, eller mer presist, overgangen fra hype-fasen til produktiv bruk. Her kommer et diagram med oversettelse for \u00e5 illustrere. <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/en\/research\/methodologies\/gartner-hype-cycle\">alt<\/a><\/noindex>. Og nedenfor er forklaringene.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse av flyvninger\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/18e511b34c2a7c007f1b4e01acfb0ef4.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>F\u00f8rste fase. \u0336F\u0336r\u0336y\u0336d\u0336. <strong>Lansering.<\/strong> Teknologien dukker opp, diskuteres f\u00f8rst blant opplyste nerds, og deretter av den fanatiske offentligheten; hype begynner gradvis \u00e5 bygge seg opp.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Andre fase. \u0336S\u0336a\u0336l\u0336g\u0336. <strong>Toppen av urealistiske forventninger.<\/strong> P\u00e5 et tidspunkt snakker alle om teknologien, pr\u00f8ver \u00e5 implementere den, og de mest smarte pr\u00f8ver \u00e5 selge den for en h\u00f8y pris.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Tredje fase. \u0336D\u0336e\u0336p\u0336r\u0336e\u0336s\u0336j\u0336o\u0336n\u0336. <strong>Nedgang i interessen.<\/strong> Teknologien implementeres aktivt og feiler ofte p\u00e5 grunn av mangler og begrensninger. \u00abDette er bare tullet!\u00bb \u2013 h\u00f8res det her og der. Hype faller raskt (prisen gj\u00f8r ofte det samme).<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Fjerde fase. \u0336A\u0336v\u0336l\u0336e\u0336g\u0336g\u0336. <strong>Arbeid med feilene.<\/strong> Teknologien forbedres, problemene l\u00f8ses. Gradvis pr\u00f8ver selskaper forsiktig \u00e5 implementere teknologien, og hurra, alt fungerer str\u00e5lende.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Femte fase. \u0336T\u0336a\u0336k\u0336k\u0336. <strong>Produktiv drift.<\/strong> Teknologien oppn\u00e5r sin fortjente plass i markedet og opererer rolig, utvikler seg, og blir likt.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"chto-v-trende\">Hva er p\u00e5 trenden?<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Tilbake til hype-syklusen fra 2019. Gartner-selskapet <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2019\">utgav<\/a><\/noindex> publiserte i september en rapport om hvilke kunstig intelligens-teknologier som er i hvilken fase, og n\u00e5r de vil begynne \u00e5 fungere produktivt. Diagrammet nedenfor, kommentarer under diagrammet.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analyse av flyvninger\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/e97ad21859354ea40467c07c99537f65.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Med stor margin er teknologiene \u00abTalegjenkjenning\u00bb og \u00abProsessakselerasjon med GPU\u00bb allerede i fasen \u00abProduktiv drift\u00bb. Dette betyr at de m\u00e5 implementeres raskt, for de gir allerede konkurransefortrinn til sine eiere.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Automatisk maskinl\u00e6ring (AutoML) og chatbots er n\u00e5 p\u00e5 toppen av hypen. Med andre ord, alle snakker om dem, mange implementerer dem, men det vil ta 2 til 5 \u00e5r \u00e5 finjustere teknologiene.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>De kjente maskinene er ogs\u00e5 mer enn i trenden n\u00e5. Teknologien \u00abautonome kj\u00f8ret\u00f8y\u00bb n\u00e6rmer seg bunnen. I dette tilfellet er det bra, for produktiv drift er foran oss. Imidlertid, if\u00f8lge Gartners estimater, vil det ta minst 10 \u00e5r for utvikling og tilpasning.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Hvor er de en gang trendy dronene og virtuell realitet i dag? Alt er p\u00e5 plass \u2013 Gartner har inkludert droner i Edge AI-segmentet (kategorier som grenser til AI), mens virtuell realitet har blitt en del av Augmented Intelligence (utvidet intelligens). Begge temaene er n\u00e5 i oppstartsfasen og har et positivt utsikter: 2-5 \u00e5r til produktiv drift p\u00e5 markedet.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"perspektivy\">Fremtiden<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Fra de lovende funksjonene: Robotic Process Automation Software \u2013 det h\u00f8res skummelt ut, men det handler egentlig om at en robot erstatter rutinemessige oppgaver. En mareritt for lavkvalifisert arbeidskraft; men <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oracle.com\/a\/ocom\/docs\/artificial-intelligence\/hbr-pulse-survey.pdf\">en studie<\/a><\/noindex> Harvard Business Review hevder: det vil ikke bli oppsigelser, men produktiviteten vil \u00f8ke. Det finnes <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iZJ6W803zaU\">grunnlag<\/a><\/noindex> for \u00e5 tro. Teknologien vil etter 2 \u00e5r n\u00e5 toppen av upopularitet og allmenn forakt, f\u00f8r den blir allment utbredt.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Av teknologi som evangelister og info-selgere av alle slag vil begynne \u00e5 snakke masse om i fremtiden, er neuromorphic computing s\u00e6rlig interessant. Dette er elektriske enheter (brikker) som <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/neuromorphic-hardware-trying-to-put-brain-into-chips-222132f7e4de\">imiterer<\/a><\/noindex> de naturlige biologiske strukturer i v\u00e5rt nervesystem n\u00e5r det gjelder energieffektivitet. For \u00e5 forenkle det, handler det om superytelse takket v\u00e6re arbeidsdeling (asynkron oppdatering av nevroner). Store selskaper som IBM og Intel jobber allerede med \u00e5 lage neuromorphic brikker. Men John Connors h\u00e6r har tid til \u00e5 forberede seg til dommedag \u2013 Gartner har tildelt teknologien hele 10 \u00e5r til modenhet. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Om digital etikk (Digital Ethics) snakkes det mye, men det g\u00e5r sakte med implementeringen. Retningen er utnevnt til en egen kategori innen AI: det betyr at det er n\u00f8dvendig \u00e5 fastsette noen etiske prinsipper, normer og standarder for datainnsamling og implementering av AI i livet, for \u00e5 si det slik, s\u00e5 det blir som hos <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk\/ai-and-digital-ethics\">mennesker.<\/a><\/noindex>Til slutt, ta en titt p\u00e5 Asimov. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"2017-vs-2019\">2017 vs 2019<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Morsomt, men i 2017 var alt <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017\/\">annerledes,<\/a><\/noindex>det ble ikke engang avsatt en egen hype-syklus for AI: AI-teknologiene viste vei sammen med blockchain og augmented reality. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Maskinl\u00e6ring og dyp l\u00e6ring var i 2017 p\u00e5 hype-olympen, mens de i 2019 fortsatte sin vei mot nedgang, som betyr <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/vc.ru\/tribuna\/81813-zhivoy-primer-kompyuternogo-zreniya-v-promyshlennosti\">produktiv drift.<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Forresten, dronene gikk fra topp til bunn i flere \u00e5r, men i 2019 beveget de seg tilbake mot toppen. Slike ting skjer, ja. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>I 2019 kom 8 nye teknologier inn i syklusen. Blant dem er skybaserte AI-tjenester (Cloud Services), AI-markedsplasser (Marketplaces), Kvanteberegning med AI (Quantum Computing). Generelt godt kjente (i smale kretser) verkt\u00f8y, som begynner \u00e5 bli plassert p\u00e5 AI-skinner.<\/p>\n<p>Kilde: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/post\/475032\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0441 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u043c 2017 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0412\u043e-\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 Gartner Hype Cycle? \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b \u0437\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0445\u0430\u0439\u043f\u0430 \u043a \u0435\u0451 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044e. \u0421\u0435\u0439\u0447\u0430\u0441 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a \u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0441\u0451. \u0410 \u0432\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u044f. \u0336\u0413\u0336\u043d\u0336\u0435\u0336\u0432\u0336. \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a. \u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f, \u0435\u0451 \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[702],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.5 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 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