Ogasiti 2020 ku Belarus kuchokera pamawonedwe a data

Source REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

Pa Habr.

2020 ikukonzekera kukhala yosangalatsa. Kusintha kwamitundu kukukula ku Belarus. Ndikupangira kuti ndisatengeke kumalingaliro ndikuyesera kuyang'ana zomwe zilipo pakusintha kwamitundu kuchokera pamalingaliro a data. Tiyeni tilingalire zinthu zomwe zingatheke bwino, komanso zotsatira zachuma za kusintha kotereku.

Mwina padzakhala mikangano yambiri.

Ngati wina ali ndi chidwi, chonde onani mphaka.

Zindikirani Vicki: Mawu oti "kusintha kwamitundu" alibe tanthauzo lenileni; ofufuza amafotokoza zifukwa, zolinga ndi njira zowakhazikitsira m'njira zosiyanasiyana. Nthawi zina mawuwa amatanthauzidwa ngati kusintha kwa maulamuliro olamulira, omwe amachitidwa makamaka pogwiritsa ntchito njira zopanda chiwawa zandale (nthawi zambiri zionetsero za pamsewu).

Mfundo yakuti kusintha kwa mitundu ikuchitika ku Belarus kumatengedwa kuchokera ku mawu a A.G. Lukashenko.

Seti ya data

Zosintha zonse zamtundu wa 33 zidatengedwa (mawuwa ndi omwe ali. Wolemba akupitiliza kugwiritsa ntchito mawuwa, kuphatikiza pakulephera kwamitundu ndi ma coups), malinga ndi gwero lomwe lidakhala ngati. wikipedia, chifukwa chosowa china chabwino.

Magulu otsatirawa adatengedwa:

• dziko [dziko]
• Yambani [tsiku loyambira] ndi kutha [tsiku_lomaliza]. Chiyambi cha zionetsero zokha chinatengedwa ngati maziko, popanda kuganizira zoyambira.
• Chifukwa [chifukwa] - gululo ndilokhazikika, kutengera zomwe zikuchitika: kusakhutira ndi ndondomeko yamakono [ndale], zotsatira za chisankho [chisankho], nkhani zachuma [zachuma], ziphuphu [ziphuphu]
• Kupambana kwa Revolution [bwino] - ngati kusinthaku kunapambana. Mtengo wa binary
• Chiwerengero cha ochita ziwonetsero. Kuyerekeza kwa chiwerengero cha omwe atenga nawo mbali kumatha kusiyana kwambiri. Pachifukwa ichi, mtengo wapamwamba unatengedwa kuchokera ku zochepa (nthawi zambiri kuyerekezera kovomerezeka)[otenga nawo mbali_max_min], chiŵerengero chapamwamba chotheka (kawirikawiri chiŵerengero cha omvera odziimira pawokha kapena otsutsa) [otenga nawo mbali_max_max] ndipo tanthauzo lawo la geometric linatengedwa [av_participants]. Izi ndi zomwe zidaganiziridwanso
• Chiwerengero cha anthu m’dzikoli m’chaka chimene zionetserozo zinayamba [anthu]
• Tsiku losankhidwa kwa mtsogoleri watsopano wa dziko [cur_mtsogoleri_osankhidwa]. Poyamba ndidagwiritsa ntchito tsiku lotsegulira, koma zidapezeka kuti ziwonetsero zingapo zidachitika ngakhale mtsogoleri wina asanatenge udindo.
• Tsiku lobadwa la Commander [cur_elected_dob]
• Press freedom index mchaka chomwe zionetsero zidayamba [press_freedom_index (PFI)]. Apamwamba, kwambiri opanda ufulu
• Udindo wa dzikoli mu index of unfreedom of atolankhani mchaka chomwe ziwonetsero zidayamba [press_freedom_index_pos (PFI_pos)]

Kupanga zatsopano/magulu.

Kutalika kwa zionetsero m'masiku ndikosavuta kuwerengera [nthawi], nthawi yolamulira zaka [masiku_kuyambira_chisankho_choyamba], zaka za kuyang'ana pa mphindi yoyambira kuyenda [zaka_kuyambira_dob], komanso gawo la anthu ochita zionetsero ochokera m’dzikolo [protest_ratio].

Tiyeni tizipita

Nkhaniyi imapereka ziwerengero zina. Palibe zambiri, koma pali zambiri. Wolemba akufunsani kumvetsetsa kwanu ndi chikhululukiro pasadakhale.

Ma grafu adzapereka mitundu itatu yokha ya zifukwa za zionetsero (ndale, chisankho, zachuma) monga zosangalatsa kwambiri.

Chigawo cha bokosi

Bokosi la bokosi, kapena "bokosi lokhala ndi masharubu," likhoza kufotokozedwa momveka bwino ndi chithunzi ichi:

Nthawi ya zionetsero

Chinthu choyamba chimene wolembayo adaganiza kuti aphunzire chinali nthawi ya zionetsero zomwe zinachitika.

Kutengera histogram, nthawi yayikulu ya ziwonetsero imatha masiku 200. Chosangalatsa ndichakuti ziwonetsero zopambana komanso zosapambana zidatenga nthawi yayitali bwanji, kutengera zomwe zidachitika:

Kugawidwa kwa magulu ndale ndi chisankho kumasiyana kwambiri. Chifukwa chakuti zionetsero ku Belarus zimayambitsidwa ndi zotsatira za chisankho, tiyeni tiwone bwinobwino tebulo ili ndi graph iyi:

Kutengera zomwe zilipo, titha kunena kuti "nthawi yabwino" yochita ziwonetsero zopambana ndi pafupifupi masabata a 6-8. Katswiri wa ndale mwina angazindikire kuti otsika apakati Onama amabwera chifukwa chakuti zina mwa zionetserozo zidakhomedwa msanga ali akhanda. Ngati izi sizikanatheka, njira yabwino kwambiri inali kudikirira ndikuchedwetsa ziwonetsero. Wolembayo adasanthula padera kuti palibe amene amakonza zisankho kumayambiriro kwachilimwe (June, Julayi).

Zomwe zikuchitika ku Belarus panthawi yofalitsidwa (31.08.2020/21/3) - masiku XNUMX aka masabata a XNUMX adutsa kuyambira chiyambi cha zionetsero.

Kutalika kwa mphamvu

Monga momwe mukuonera pa bokosi pamwambapa, mukakhala ndi mphamvu zambiri, zimakhala zovuta kwambiri kuti mupitirizebe chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mitundu. Tiyeni tiwone bwinobwino momwe zinthu zilili pa chisankho:

Kuchokera pa graph mutha kuwona kuti kuleza mtima kwa anthu kuli pafupifupi mawu a 2 ndipo ma quartiles samalumikizana.

Zomwe zikuchitika ku Belarus ndizopadera mwanjira yake. Sipanakhalepo kusintha kwamitundu m'dziko lomwe wolamulirayo adakhalapo zaka 26 ndikulowa gawo lake lachisanu ndi chimodzi. Kumbali inayi, ndizosavuta kuti wolembayo aganizire zotsatira za algorithm yamitengo yomwe funsoli silingabweretse mavuto.

Zaka za mwini mphamvu

Chithunzichi chikuwonetsa momwe magawo amagawidwira (palibe zodabwitsa ndi kuchuluka kwa deta). Tiyeni tiwone bwinobwino tchati cha chisankho:

Monga chitsanzo pamwambapa, ma quartiles a mabokosi awa samadutsana. Izi zikhoza kukhala chifukwa chakuti ndale achinyamata ndi amphamvu omwe ali pansi pa zaka 55 ali ndi mphamvu zambiri zokana zionetsero zopanda azungu. Kapena ndi nthawi yayitali yomwe adalandira mphamvu ndi momwe amachitira monyinyirika kuzisiya. Angadziwe ndani?

Purezidenti wapano wa Belarus adatembenuza 66 dzulo (kapena lero?). Pankhaniyi, manambala samukomera mtima.

Mlozera wa (mu)ufulu wa atolankhani

Malingana ndi anthu anzeru kwambiri kuposa wolemba, kusowa kwa ufulu wa atolankhani kungakhale chizindikiro cha zizolowezi zankhanza. Press Freedom Index imawerengedwa ndi Reporters Without Borders. Kukwera kwa index, kumakhala koyipa kwambiri ndi ufulu wa atolankhani, malinga ndi bungweli.

Kutengera ma graph awa, kupezeka kwa ufulu wa atolankhani kumakhala ndi zotsatira zoyipa pakusunga mphamvu. Izi zitha kumveka, popeza ntchito ya atolankhani ndi wailesi yakanema, ngakhale ikufooka, imagwirabe ntchito yofunika kwambiri. Ganizirani za chisankho:

Monga momwe zinalili kale, ma quartiles sanagwirizane. Kufika kwa malo ochezera osiyanasiyana ochezera a pa Intaneti kwasintha kwambiri chithunzi ndi chikoka chazachuma; pankhaniyi, zikuwoneka ngati zotheka, koma zovuta, kuti wolemba ayike 1986 ku Philippines ndi 2020 ku Belarus pandime.

Ku Belarus, ufulu wa atolankhani ndi 49.25 wa 2020. Uwu ndiye mtengo wam'malire kwambiri wa zitsanzo zonse zomwe zaperekedwa m'nkhaniyi. Ndipo ndi m'magawo azidziwitso momwe nkhondo zazikulu zakusintha kwamakono zikuchitika. Ena ogwira ntchito m’makampani a wailesi yakanema ndi wailesi yakanema akunyanyala ntchito. Komsomolskaya Pravda amalemba za zionetsero ku Belarus, koma sangathe kusindikizidwa chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwa makina, ndi zina zotero. Akatswiri a ndale a ku Russia amapita ku Belarus ataitanidwa ndi pulezidenti, ndipo otsutsa amagwiritsa ntchito mwakhama teknoloji ya kumadzulo kwa anthu. Mamba amatha kukwerana kangapo.

Gawo la otsutsa

Mwina chimodzi mwazinthu zovuta kwambiri kuwerengera. Zikuoneka kuti pamakonsati a rock kapena zochitika zina zazikulu, atolankhani ndi akuluakulu a boma amayerekezera chiŵerengero cha otenga nawo mbali pafupifupi mofanana.
Koma zikadziwika za zionetsero m’maiko osiyanasiyana, anthu amaona kuti anali m’malo osiyanasiyana. Kapena ankayang’ana pa ma binoculars kuchokera mbali zosiyanasiyana. Mwanjira ina, deta idawerengedwa chimodzimodzi kwa aliyense, kotero ndizotheka kuti amafanana.

Ma grafu akuwonetsa kuti gawo lalikulu la ochita ziwonetsero, ndizovuta kwambiri kusunga mphamvu. Zoyembekezeredwa. M'malo mwake, manambalawo ndiwofunikira, kuphatikiza zomwe zikuchitika pazisankho:

Potengera bokosilo, misa yovuta ndi 0.5%. Panali vuto limodzi lokha, lomwe limawonedwa ngati lakunja, pomwe pafupifupi 1.4% idaphonya zomwe akufuna (Armenia, 2008).

Ku Belarus, pakali pano, malinga ndi ndondomeko yowerengera, 1.33% ikuchita nawo zionetsero. Chiwerengerochi sichimaseweranso m'manja mwa boma lomwe lilipo.

Zotsatira zake pazachuma

Zomwe zili pansipa sizingatchulidwe kuti chuma. Wolembayo sanapeze chizindikiro chabwino chofananira, momwe mungaphunzire kusinthasintha kwa ndalama za dziko lonse malinga ndi National Bank motsutsana ndi dola ya US. Kuti amalize chithunzichi, nthawi ya chaka chimodzi idatengedwa kuyambira chiyambi cha zionetserozo komanso chaka chitatha. Nthawi ya zionetsero imawonetsedwa mu buluu pama chart.

Ndalama yadziko ikukulirakulira motsutsana ndi dola

Chochitika chofananacho chinawonedwa kangapo m’maiko amene kale anali Soviet Union. Zinthu zonse kukhala zofanana, malipiro ama ruble aku America adakula.

Ndalama ya dziko ndiyokhazikika poyerekeza ndi dola

Makhalidwe okhazikika a ndalama zamayiko adadziwikanso m'mawonekedwe amitundu yakusintha kwamayiko omwe kale anali Soviet Union. Pazifukwa izi, kusintha kwa dollar sikunasinthe kwambiri.

Ndalama yadziko idagwa motsutsana ndi dola

Patatha chaka chimodzi pambuyo pa zionetsero zina za zionetserozo, munthu atha kuona mkhalidwe womvetsa chisoni kwambiri pankhani ya ndalama ya dzikolo. Mwina magawo awiri omaliza a mavuto azachuma a 2008 adathandizira. Zomwe zikuchitika ku Algeria ndizaposachedwa kwambiri - dinar yakomweko yagundidwa ndi COVID-19.

Zomwe zikuchitika ku Belarus

Zinthu ku Belarus ndizovuta kwambiri - kale panthawi ya zionetsero, kokha Russia mu 2012, mlingowo unatsika kwambiri ndi 10%. Komabe, izi sizinachitike kuyambira masiku oyambirira a zionetsero komanso panthawi ya 2 ya mavuto azachuma padziko lonse. Wolembayo alibe chidziwitso chamtengo wapatali cha zachuma ndipo safuna kusocheretsa anthu za zomwe zimayambitsa ndi zotsatira za zomwe zikuchitika panopa.

Zotsalira zouma

Ngakhale kuti deta ndi yaying'ono, imakhala yosasinthasintha, yomwe ndi nkhani yabwino. Zowonera ndi machitidwe ena ndi osavuta kutanthauzira, pomwe ena ndi ovuta kwambiri.

Zomwe zikuchitika ku Belarus zikusintha tsiku lililonse, ndipo zomwe zidzachitike pambuyo pake zikuwonekera kwa ochepa okha.

Pomaliza, ndikupatsani chithunzi cha t-SNE chakusintha kwamitundu. Madeti onse, magawo osakhala manambala, ndi zotsatira zakusintha zidachotsedwa pagulu.

Zosintha zopambana zimalembedwa zobiriwira, zosapambana zofiira. Venezuela imadziwika ndi buluu, ndipo zomwe zikuchitika ku Belarus zili mu imvi. Dothi lakuda likuwonetsa malo omwe Belarus idzakhala mu masabata a 2, ndi deta ina yokhazikika.

Izi zimanunkhiza pang'ono ngati kusonkhanitsa ndipo mukhoza kuyesa kuziyika pogwiritsa ntchito malo a khofi. Pamenepa, ngati muyika malo a madontho ofiira ngati 'gulu' la zisinthiko zomwe zalephera, mukhoza kuona kuti ku Venezuela dontho ndilofiira kwambiri kuposa lobiriwira, zomwe zimatsimikiziridwa ndi malingaliro apadziko lonse a asayansi andale. . Belarus, yoimiridwa ndi imvi (panopa) ndi yakuda (mu masabata a 2), ikupita kumsasa wa abale ake obiriwira.

Mutha kulabadira kuti pafupi ndi Belarus pali gulu la madontho 5 obiriwira. Zoyandikira kwambiri kwa ife ndizosintha zaposachedwa Armenia (2018) и Algeria (2019)ndipo Georgia (2003). Mu tsango lomwelo, kutali pang'ono, pali kusintha Philippines (1986) ndi South Korea (2016).

Epilogue

Wolembayo adayesetsa kufotokoza momveka bwino momwe angathere, kuwonetsa momwe zinthu ziliri ndikusintha kwamitundu muma graph. Zomwe zikuchitika ku Belarus sizigwirizana ndi wolamulira wamakono, ndipo nthawi yokhayo idzakuuzani ngati wolembayo ali wolondola muzoneneratu zake.

Ngati muli ndi malingaliro amagulu atsopano kapena mitu, tilembereni ndipo tidzafufuza pamodzi.

"Pali mabodza amitundu itatu: mabodza, mabodza otembereredwa ndi ziwerengero" (M. Twain)

Source: www.habr.com