Chikwapu ndi masewera
M'nkhaniyi ndikufuna kuti tikambirane za vuto la bullwhip effect, lomwe lakhala likuphunziridwa kwambiri muzochita, komanso kuwonetsa kwa aphunzitsi ndi akatswiri okhudza kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kabwino kuphunzitsa Logistics. Masewera a mowa mu sayansi ya kasamalidwe ka zinthu zogulira ndi mutu wovuta kwambiri pamaphunziro ndi machitidwe. Imalongosola bwino njira yosalamulirika ya kusinthasintha kwa dongosolo ndi kutupa kwazinthu pamagawo osiyanasiyana a unyolo woperekera - zomwe zimatchedwa bullwhip effect. Nditakumana ndi zovuta kutsanzira chikwapu, ndidaganiza zopanga masewera anga osavuta amowa (omwe amatchedwanso masewera atsopanowa). Podziwa kuti ndi akatswiri angati omwe ali patsamba lino, komanso poganizira kuti ndemanga pazolemba za Habr nthawi zambiri zimakhala zosangalatsa kuposa zolembazo, ndikufuna kumva ndemanga zochokera kwa owerenga za kufunikira kwa ng'ombe yamphongo ndi masewera a mowa.
Vuto lenileni kapena lopeka?
Ndiyamba ndi kufotokoza zotsatira za bullwhip. Pali matani a kafukufuku wa sayansi muzochita zomwe zawunikira zotsatira za bullwhip ngati zotsatira zofunikira pakuyanjana kwa othandizira omwe ali ndi zovuta pakuwongolera. Zotsatira za bullwhip ndikuwonjezeka kwa kusinthika kwadongosolo pamagawo oyambilira a chain chain (kumtunda), yomwe ndi imodzi mwazongopeka zazikulu [1] [2] ndi zotsatira zoyeserera zamasewera a mowa [3]. Malingana ndi zotsatira za bullwhip, kusinthasintha kwa zofuna kuchokera kwa ogula ndi kuitanitsa kuchokera kwa ogulitsa pa magawo omaliza a chain chain (kumunsi kwa mtsinje) nthawi zonse kumakhala kotsika kusiyana ndi kuchokera kwa ogulitsa ndi opanga. Zotsatira zake zimakhala zovulaza ndipo zimayambitsa kusintha pafupipafupi kwa madongosolo ndi kupanga. Mwamasamu, zotsatira za bullwhip zitha kufotokozedwa ngati chiŵerengero cha kusiyana kapena ma coefficients a kusiyana pakati pa magawo (echelons) a chain chain:
BullwhipEffect=VARupstream/VARdownstream
Kapena (malingana ndi njira ya wofufuzayo):
BullwhipEffect=CVupstream/CVdownstream
Zotsatira za bullwhip zikuphatikizidwa pafupifupi m'mabuku onse otchuka akunja pa kasamalidwe kazinthu. Pali kafukufuku wambiri woperekedwa pamutuwu. Maulalo omwe ali kumapeto kwa nkhaniyi akuwonetsa ntchito zodziwika bwino za izi. Mwachidziwitso, zotsatira zake zimayamba chifukwa cha kusowa kwa chidziwitso chokhudza kufunika, kugula zinthu zambiri, mantha akusowa kwamtsogolo komanso kukwera kwamitengo [1]. Kukayika kwa mabizinesi kugawana zidziwitso zolondola zokhudzana ndi zomwe makasitomala akufuna, komanso nthawi yayitali yobweretsera, kumawonjezera zotsatira za bullwhip [2]. Palinso zifukwa zamaganizo za zotsatira zake, zomwe zimatsimikiziridwa mu labotale [3]. Pazifukwa zodziwikiratu, pali zitsanzo zochepa chabe za zotsatira za bullwhip - anthu owerengeka angafune kugawana zambiri za maoda awo ndi zinthu zawo, komanso pagulu lonse lazinthu. Pali, komabe, ochita kafukufuku ochepa omwe amakhulupirira kuti bullwhip zotsatira ndizokokomeza.
Mwachidziwitso, zotsatira zake zitha kuwongoleredwa ndikulowetsa katundu ndikusintha makasitomala pakati pa ogulitsa pakasowa [4]. Umboni wina wotsimikizika umathandizira malingaliro akuti bullwhip zotsatira zitha kukhala zochepa m'mafakitale ambiri [5]. Opanga ndi ogulitsa nthawi zambiri amagwiritsa ntchito njira zowongolera zopangira ndi zidule zina kuwonetsetsa kuti kusinthasintha kwa dongosolo lamakasitomala sikovuta kwambiri. Ndikudabwa: zili bwanji ndi zotsatira za bullwhip ku Russia ndi malo a post-Soviet ambiri? Kodi owerenga (makamaka omwe akukhudzidwa ndi kusanthula kwazinthu ndi kuneneratu kwazomwe akufuna) awona zotsatira zamphamvu zotere m'moyo weniweni? Mwina, kwenikweni, funso la bullwhip zotsatira ndi kutali kwambiri ndipo nthawi yochuluka ya ofufuza ndi logistics ophunzira anataya pa izo pachabe ...
Inenso ndinaphunzira za bullwhip effect monga wophunzira womaliza maphunziro komanso pamene ndikukonzekera pepala la masewera a mowa kumsonkhano. Pambuyo pake ndidakonza mtundu wamasewera amowa pakompyuta kuti ndiwonetse zotsatira za chikwapu m'kalasi. Ndikufotokozera mwatsatanetsatane pansipa.
Izi si zoseweretsa zanu...
Mawonekedwe a Spreadsheet amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri posanthula zovuta zabizinesi zenizeni. Maspredishiti ndi othandizanso pophunzitsa oyang'anira amtsogolo. Zochita za bullwhip, monga gawo lodziwika bwino la kasamalidwe ka supply chain, zimakhala ndi chizolowezi chanthawi yayitali chogwiritsa ntchito zoyerekeza pamaphunziro, zomwe masewera a mowa ndi chitsanzo chabwino. MIT idayambitsa koyamba masewera amowa koyambirira kwa zaka za m'ma 1960, ndipo posakhalitsa idakhala chida chodziwika bwino chofotokozera mphamvu zamagetsi. Masewerawa ndi chitsanzo chapamwamba cha mtundu wa System Dynamics, womwe umagwiritsidwa ntchito osati pazifukwa za maphunziro, komanso kupanga zisankho muzochitika zenizeni zamalonda, komanso kafukufuku. Kuwonekera, kuberekana, chitetezo, kutsika mtengo komanso kupezeka kwa masewera akuluakulu apakompyuta kumapereka njira ina yophunzitsira pa ntchito, kupatsa oyang'anira chida chothandizira kuthandizira kupanga zisankho poyesa zoyeserera pamalo ophunzirira otetezeka.
Masewerawa atenga gawo lofunikira pakuyerekeza kupanga njira zamabizinesi ndikuthandizira kupanga zisankho. Masewera apamwamba amowa anali masewera a bolodi ndipo ankafunika kukonzekera kwambiri asanasewere masewerawa m'kalasi. Aphunzitsi poyamba ankayenera kuthana ndi nkhani monga malangizo ovuta, zoikidwiratu, ndi zolepheretsa kwa omwe adatenga nawo masewera. Matembenuzidwe otsatirawa a masewera a mowa adayesa kuti zikhale zosavuta kugwiritsa ntchito mothandizidwa ndi zamakono zamakono. Ngakhale kusintha kwakukulu ndi mtundu uliwonse wotsatira, zovuta za kukhazikitsa ndi kukhazikitsa, makamaka m'makonzedwe a anthu ambiri, nthawi zambiri zalepheretsa masewerawa kuti asagwiritsidwe ntchito kwambiri mu maphunziro a bizinesi. Kuwunikanso kwamitundu yomwe ilipo yamasewera oyerekeza moŵa mu kasamalidwe ka supply chain kukuwonetsa kusowa kwa zida zopezeka mosavuta komanso zaulere kwa aphunzitsi pamunda. Mu masewera atsopano otchedwa Supply Chain Competition Game, ndinkafuna kuthana ndi vutoli poyamba. Kuchokera pamalingaliro ophunzitsira, masewera atsopanowa atha kufotokozedwa ngati chida chophunzirira motengera zovuta (PBL) chomwe chimaphatikiza kuyerekezera ndi sewero. Ndikothekanso kugwiritsa ntchito mtundu wamasewera atsopano pa intaneti pa Google Sheets. Njira yopangira zovomerezeka mumtundu wamtundu wa spreadsheet woperekera amawongolera zovuta zazikulu ziwiri pakugwiritsa ntchito masewera ovuta: kupezeka komanso kugwiritsa ntchito mosavuta. Masewerawa akhalapo kuti atsitsidwe kwa zaka zingapo tsopano pa ulalo wotsatirawu pagulu .
Kufotokozera mwatsatanetsatane mu Chingerezi kumatha kutsitsa .
Kufotokozera mwachidule zamasewerawa
Mwachidule za magawo a masewerawo.
Wogwiritsa ntchito m'modzi yemwe ali ndi udindo woyendetsa gawo lamasewera (amene pano akutchedwa mphunzitsi) komanso osachepera anayi omwe akusewera masewerawa (omwe amatchedwa osewera) palimodzi akuyimira omwe atenga nawo gawo pamasewera amowa. Mitundu yatsopano yamasewera amodzi kapena awiri, iliyonse imakhala ndi magawo anayi: Retailer ®, Wholesaler (W), Distributor (D) ndi Factory (F). Unyolo wapamoyo weniweni ndiwovuta kwambiri, koma masewera apamwamba amowa ndi abwino kuphunzira.
Mpunga. 1. Kapangidwe ka unyolo
Gawo lililonse lamasewera limaphatikizapo nthawi 12.
Mpunga. 2. Fomu yosankha osewera aliyense
Maselo omwe ali m'mawonekedwe ali ndi mawonekedwe apadera omwe amapangitsa kuti minda yolowetsayo iwoneke kapena yosawoneka kwa osewera kutengera nthawi yomwe ikugwira ntchito komanso momwe zisankho zimayendera, kotero osewera amatha kuyang'ana zomwe zili zofunika kwambiri panthawiyo. Mphunzitsi akhoza kulamulira kayendedwe ka masewerawo kudzera mu gulu lolamulira, kumene magawo akuluakulu ndi zizindikiro za machitidwe a wosewera aliyense amatsatiridwa. Ma graph osinthidwa nthawi yomweyo patsamba lililonse amakuthandizani kumvetsetsa mwachangu zizindikiro zazikulu zamasewera nthawi iliyonse. Aphunzitsi amatha kusankha ngati zofuna za kasitomala ndizotsimikizika (kuphatikiza mzere ndi zosagwirizana) kapena zokhazikika (kuphatikiza yunifolomu, zachilendo, zachilendo, zitatu, gamma, ndi zofotokozera).
Ntchito ina
Masewera omwe ali mu fomuyi akadali kutali kwambiri - amafunikira kuwongolera kowonjezereka kwamasewera amasewera ambiri pa intaneti kuti athetse kufunikira kosintha ndikusunga mapepala ofananira pambuyo pakuchitapo kanthu kwa osewera. Ndikufuna kuwerenga ndikuyankha ndemanga pamafunso otsatirawa:
a) ngati zotsatira za bullwhip ndi zenizeni;
b) momwe masewera a mowa angathandizire pophunzitsa kachitidwe ndi momwe angapititsire patsogolo.
powatsimikizira
[1] Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V. ndi Whang, S., 1997. Kusokonekera kwachidziwitso muzitsulo zogulitsira: The bullwhip effect. Management sayansi, 43(4), pp.546-558.
[2] Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K. ndi Simchi-Levi, D., 2000. Kuwerengera zotsatira za bullwhip mu njira yosavuta yoperekera: Zotsatira za kulosera, nthawi zotsogolera, ndi chidziwitso. 46(3), masamba 436-443.
[3] Sterman, J.D., 1989. Makhalidwe oyang'anira chitsanzo: Malingaliro olakwika a ndemanga pakuyesera kopanga chisankho. Management science, 35 (3), pp.321-339.
[4] Sucky, E., 2009 International Journal of Production Economics, 118 (1), pp.311-322.
[5] Cachon, G.P., Randall, T. ndi Schmidt, G.M., 2007. Pofufuza zotsatira za bullwhip. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 9(4), pp.457-479.
Source: www.habr.com