Kodi ndi koyenera kugula galimoto kwa 750 zikwi rubles, ngakhale kuti mumayendetsa maulendo 18 pamwezi, kapena ndi wotsika mtengo kugwiritsa ntchito takisi? Ngati mumagwira ntchito kumpando wakumbuyo kapena kumvetsera nyimbo - izi zikusintha bwanji kuwunika? Njira yabwino yogulira nyumba ndi iti - ndi liti pamene kuli koyenera kumaliza kusunga ndalama ndikubweza ngongole yanyumba? Kapena ngakhale funso laling'ono: kodi ndizopindulitsa kwambiri kuyika ndalama pa 6% ndi capitalization pamwezi kapena 6,2% ndi capitalization pachaka? Anthu ambiri sayesa n’komwe kuwerengera motere ndipo safuna n’komwe kusonkhanitsa zambiri zokhudza ndalama zawo. M'malo mowerengera, malingaliro ndi malingaliro amalumikizidwa. Kapena amangoyerekeza pang'ono, mwachitsanzo, kuwerengera mwatsatanetsatane mtengo wapachaka wokhala ndi galimoto, pomwe ndalama zonse izi zitha kukhala 5% yokha ya ndalama zonse (ndipo kuwonongera mbali zina za moyo sikuwerengedwa). Ubongo wamunthu umasokonezeka ndi chidziwitso. Mwachitsanzo, ndizovuta kusiya, ngakhale osabweza, bizinesi yomwe nthawi ndi ndalama zambiri zayikidwa. Anthu nthawi zambiri amakhala ndi chiyembekezo chopitilira muyeso ndipo amapeputsa kuwopsa kwake, komanso kuwonekera mosavuta ndipo amatha kugula zodula kapena kuyika ndalama mu piramidi yazachuma.
Zoonadi, ku banki, kuwunika kwamalingaliro sikugwira ntchito. Chifukwa chake, ndikufuna kunena kaye za momwe munthu wamba amawerengera ndalama (kuphatikiza ine), komanso momwe banki imachitira. Pansipa padzakhala pulogalamu yophunzitsira yazachuma komanso zambiri za kusanthula kwa data ku Sberbank kubanki yonse yonse.
Zomwe zapezedwa zimangoperekedwa ngati chitsanzo ndipo sizingaganizidwe ngati malingaliro kwa osunga ndalama pawokha, popeza samaganizira zinthu zambiri zomwe zatsalira kunja kwa nkhaniyi.
Mwachitsanzo, chochitika chilichonse cha "black swan" mu macroeconomics, muulamuliro wamakampani akampani iliyonse, ndi zina zotere, zitha kubweretsa kusintha kwakukulu.
Tiyerekeze kuti mwabweza kale ngongole yanu yanyumba ndipo muli ndi ndalama. Nkhaniyi ikhoza kukhala yothandiza kwa inu ngati:
- zilibe kanthu kuti mwasonkhanitsa katundu wochuluka bwanji komanso momwe mungayang'anire
- mukudabwa momwe mungapangire katundu wanu kuti akubweretsereni ndalama zowonjezera
- Ndikufuna kumvetsetsa kuti ndi njira ziti zogulira ndalama zomwe zili bwino kwambiri: malo ogulitsa nyumba, madipoziti kapena masheya
- ndikufuna kudziwa zomwe kusanthula kwa data ya Sberbank kudzalangiza pankhaniyi
Nthawi zambiri anthu amapanga zisankho zachuma popanda chidziwitso chonse chokhudza kayendetsedwe ka ndalama zawo ndi ndalama zawo, popanda kuwunika mtengo wa katundu wawo, popanda kuganizira za inflation, ndi zina zotero m'mawerengedwe awo.
Nthawi zina anthu amalakwitsa, monga kutenga ngongole poganiza kuti akhoza kubweza kenako nkulephera. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, yankho la funso lakuti ngati munthu adzatha kupereka ngongole nthawi zambiri amadziwika pasadakhale. Mukungoyenera kudziwa kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe mumapeza, momwe mumagwiritsira ntchito, ndi mphamvu zotani za kusintha kwa zizindikiro izi.
Kapena, mwachitsanzo, munthu amalandira malipiro amtundu wina kuntchito, amawonjezedwa nthawi ndi nthawi, kuwonetsa ngati kuwunika kwabwino. Koma zoona zake n’zakuti, poyerekezera ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu, malipiro a munthu ameneyu akhoza kugwa, ndipo sangazindikire zimenezi ngati sasunga zolemba za ndalama.
Anthu ena sangathe kuwona kuti ndi chisankho chiti chomwe chili chopindulitsa kwambiri pamasiku omwe ali pano: kubwereka nyumba kapena kubwereketsa ngongole pamlingo wotere.
Ndipo m'malo mowerengera ndalama zomwe zidzakhale mu izi ndi izi, mwanjira ina ndalama zomwe sizili zachuma pakuwerengera ("Ndikuyerekeza phindu la kulembetsa ku Moscow pa M rubles pamwezi, ndikuyerekeza kukhala kosavuta kukhala m'nyumba yobwereketsa pafupi. ntchito pa N ruble pamwezi”), anthu amathamangira ku intaneti kukakambirana ndi oyankhulana omwe angakhale ndi vuto lazachuma komanso zinthu zina zofunika pakuwunika zomwe sizili zachuma.
Ndine wokonzekera bwino zachuma. Choyamba, akulinganizidwa kuti musonkhare deta zotsatirazi pazachuma chanu:
- kuwerengera ndi kuwerengera mtengo wazinthu zonse zomwe zilipo
- kuwerengera ndalama ndi ndalama, komanso kusiyana pakati pa ndalama ndi ndalama, i.e. kachulukidwe ka katundu
Kuwerengera ndi kuwerengera mtengo wazinthu zonse zomwe zilipo
Poyamba, apa pali chithunzi chomwe mwina chimatanthauzira molakwika mkhalidwe wachuma wa anthu. Chithunzichi chikuwonetsa zigawo zandalama zokha za malo omwe anthu ojambulidwawo ali nawo. Zoona zake n’zakuti, anthu amene amapereka zachifundo amakhala ndi katundu wina pambali pa ngongole, chifukwa chake ndalama zawo zimakhala zoipa, koma mtengo wake wonse umakhala wokulirapo kuposa wa wopemphapempha.
Ganizirani zomwe muli nazo:
- nyumba ndi zomangidwa
- dziko
- magalimoto
- ndalama za banki
- ngongole zangongole (ndi kuchotsera)
- ndalama (stocks, bond, ...)
- mtengo wabizinesi yanu
- katundu wina
Pakati pa katunduyo, munthu amatha kuzindikira gawo lamadzimadzi, lomwe limatha kuchotsedwa mwachangu ndikusinthidwa kukhala mitundu ina. Mwachitsanzo, gawo m’nyumba imene muli nayo limodzi ndi achibale amene amakhalamo lingatchulidwe kuti ndi katundu wosaloledwa. Kuyika ndalama kwanthawi yayitali m'madipoziti kapena magawo omwe sangathe kuchotsedwa popanda kutayika kumathanso kuonedwa ngati kosavomerezeka. Kenako, malo omwe muli nawo koma osakhalamo, magalimoto, ma depositi akanthawi kochepa komanso osinthika amatha kugawidwa ngati katundu wamadzimadzi. Mwachitsanzo, ngati mukufuna ndalama kuti muthandizidwe mwachangu, ndiye kuti zopindulitsa za zida zina zimakhala pafupifupi ziro, kotero gawo lazachuma ndilofunika kwambiri.
Komanso, pakati pa katundu akhoza kusiyanitsa zosapindulitsa ndi zopindulitsa. Mwachitsanzo, malo ogulitsa nyumba omwe sanabwereke, komanso magalimoto, akhoza kuonedwa ngati opanda phindu. Ndipo malo obwereketsa, madipoziti ndi magawo omwe adayikidwa pamtengo wopitilira kukwera kwa inflation ndi katundu wopindulitsa.
Mupeza, mwachitsanzo, chithunzi chotere (chidziwitsocho chimapangidwa mwachisawawa):
Kwa anthu ambiri, chithunzichi chikuwoneka chokhotakhota kwambiri. Mwachitsanzo, agogo osauka akhoza kukhala m'nyumba yamtengo wapatali ku Moscow, zomwe sizibweretsa phindu, pokhala ndi moyo kuchokera ku penshoni kupita ku penshoni, osaganizira za kukonzanso katundu wake. Kungakhale kwanzeru kwa iye kusinthanitsa nyumba zogona ndi mdzukulu wake ndi malipiro. M’malo mwake, wosunga ndalama angatengeke kwambiri m’kuikapo ndalama m’matangadza kotero kuti sakhala ndi mitundu ina ya zinthu za tsiku la mvula, zimene zingakhale zoopsa. Mutha kujambula chithunzi chotere cha katundu wanu ndikudabwa ngati sikuli kwanzeru kusamutsa malowo m'njira yopindulitsa kwambiri.
Kuwerengera ndalama zomwe mumapeza, zowononga ndalama komanso kusintha kwachuma
Tikulangizidwa kuti muzilemba ndalama zomwe mumapeza komanso zomwe mumawononga nthawi zonse pakompyuta. M'nthawi yakubanki pa intaneti, sizitenga khama. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, ndalama ndi ndalama zingagawidwe m'magulu. Kuphatikiza apo, powaphatikiza ndi zaka, munthu amatha kuzindikira zamphamvu zawo. Ndikofunikira kuganizira za kukwera kwa mitengo kuti mukhale ndi lingaliro la momwe ndalama zazaka zapitazi zikuwonekera pamitengo yamasiku ano. Aliyense ali ndi dengu lake la ogula. Mafuta amafuta ndi zakudya zimakwera mtengo pamitengo yosiyana. Koma kuwerengera kukwera kwa mitengo yanu ndikovuta. Choncho, ndi zolakwika zina, ndizotheka kugwiritsa ntchito deta pamtengo wovomerezeka wa inflation.
Deta ya inflation ya mwezi ndi mwezi imapezeka kuchokera kuzinthu zambiri zotseguka, kuphatikizapo zomwe zimayikidwa ku nyanja ya data ya Sberbank.
Chitsanzo chowonera kayendetsedwe ka ndalama zopezera ndalama (deta imapangidwa mwachisawawa, mphamvu ya inflation ndi yeniyeni):
Pokhala ndi chithunzi chathunthu chotere, mutha kuganiza za kukula kwanu / kuchepa kwenikweni kwa ndalama zomwe mumapeza komanso kukula kwenikweni / kuchepa kwa ndalama, kusanthula momwe ndalama zimagwirira ntchito ndi gulu ndikupanga zisankho zodziwika bwino pazachuma.
Ndi njira iti yosungitsira ndalama zaulere zomwe zimapambana kukwera kwa mitengo ndikubweretsa ndalama zambiri?
Nyanja ya data ya Sberbank ili ndi zofunikira pamutuwu:
- mphamvu ya mtengo pa lalikulu mita mu Moscow
- nkhokwe yamalingaliro ogulitsa ndi kubwereketsa nyumba ku Moscow ndi Moscow
- kusintha kwa chiwongola dzanja cha pachaka pamadipoziti
- ruble inflation dynamics
- Dynamics of the Moscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR)
- Moscow exchange stock quotes and data on dividends operekedwa
Deta iyi itithandiza kufananiza zobweza ndi kuopsa kwa ndalama zogulira malo obwereketsa, ma depositi akubanki ndi msika wa equity. Tisaiwale kukulitsa kukwera kwa mitengo.
Ndiyenera kunena nthawi yomweyo kuti mu positiyi tikuchita nawo kafukufuku wa deta ndipo osagwiritsa ntchito malingaliro aliwonse azachuma. Tiyeni tiwone zomwe deta yathu ikunena - njira yosungira ndikukulitsa ndalama ku Russia yatulutsa zotsatira zabwino kwambiri m'zaka zaposachedwa.
Tidzafotokozera mwachidule momwe deta yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito m'nkhaniyi ndi zina ku Sberbank zimasonkhanitsidwa ndikuwunikidwa. Pali mndandanda wazotengera zomwe zimasungidwa mumtundu wa parquet pa hadoop. Zonse zamkati (zosiyanasiyana AS za banki) ndi magwero akunja amagwiritsidwa ntchito. Zolemba zoyambira zimasonkhanitsidwa m'njira zosiyanasiyana. Pali stork, yomwe idakhazikitsidwa ndi spark, ndipo chachiwiri chikukula kwambiri - Ab Initio AIR. Zolemba zoyambira zimakwezedwa kumagulu osiyanasiyana a hadoop omwe amayendetsedwa ndi Cloudera, ndipo amatha kulumikizidwa kuchokera kugulu limodzi kupita ku lina. Magulu amagawidwa makamaka ndi midadada yamabizinesi, palinso magulu a Data Lab. Kutengera zofananira zoyambira, ma data osiyanasiyana amapangidwa omwe amapezeka kwa ogwiritsa ntchito mabizinesi ndi asayansi a data. Ntchito zosiyanasiyana za spark, mafunso a mng'oma, kusanthula deta, ndikuwona zotsatira zazithunzi za SVG zidagwiritsidwa ntchito polemba nkhaniyi.
Kusanthula kwakale kwa msika wogulitsa nyumba
Kusanthula kukuwonetsa kuti malo ogulitsa nyumba m'kupita kwa nthawi amakula molingana ndi inflation, i.e. pamitengo yeniyeni sichimakwera kapena kuchepa. Nawa ma graph a kayendetsedwe ka mitengo ya malo okhala ku Moscow, kuwonetsa zomwe zilipo zoyambira.
Mitengo yamitengo mu ma ruble kuphatikiza inflation:
Tchati chamtengo mu ma ruble, poganizira kukwera kwa mitengo (pamitengo yamakono):
Tikuwona kuti m'mbiri yakale mtengowo unasintha pafupifupi 200 rubles / sq.m. m'mitengo yamakono ndi kusakhazikika kunali kochepa kwambiri.
Ndi peresenti yanji pachaka pamwamba pa inflation yomwe imabwera ndi ndalama zogulira nyumba zogona? Kodi zokolola zimadalira bwanji kuchuluka kwa zipinda m'nyumba? Tiyeni tiwunikenso zotsatsa za Sberbank zotsatsa ndi kubwereketsa nyumba ku Moscow ndi madera aku Moscow.
M'nkhokwe yathu, munali nyumba zingapo zogona momwe muli zotsatsa zogulitsira nyumba ndi zotsatsa zobwereketsa nthawi imodzi, komanso kuchuluka kwa zipinda m'nyumba zogulitsa ndi renti ndizofanana. Tinkayerekezera milandu yotereyi, tikuiika m’magulu malinga ndi nyumba ndi kuchuluka kwa zipinda za m’nyumbamo. Ngati panali zopereka zingapo mu gulu loterolo, mtengo wapakati unawerengedwa. Ngati malo omwe amagulitsidwa ndi kubwerekedwa amasiyana, ndiye kuti mtengo woperekedwawo udasinthidwa molingana kuti madera omwe amafananizidwawo agwirizane. Zotsatira zake, malingalirowo adayikidwa pandandanda. Bwalo lililonse ndi nyumba yomwe imaperekedwa kuti igulidwe ndikubwereketsa nthawi yomweyo. Pamtunda wopingasa timawona mtengo wogula nyumba, ndipo pazitsulo zoyima - mtengo wobwereka nyumba yomweyo. Chiwerengero cha zipinda m'nyumbamo chikuwonekera bwino kuchokera ku mtundu wa bwalo, ndipo kukula kwa malo a nyumbayo, kumakhalanso kokulirapo kwa bwalo. Poganizira zopereka zokwera mtengo kwambiri, ndondomekoyi idakhala motere:
Mukachotsa zotsika mtengo, mutha kuwona mitengo mugawo lazachuma mwatsatanetsatane:
Kusanthula kwamalumikizidwe kukuwonetsa kuti mgwirizano pakati pa mtengo wobwereketsa nyumba ndi mtengo wogula uli pafupi ndi mzere.
Zinapezeka kuti pali chiŵerengero chotsatira pakati pa mtengo wobwereketsa nyumba pachaka ndi mtengo wogula nyumba (musaiwale kuti mtengo wapachaka ndi 12 pamwezi):
Nambala ya zipinda:
Chiŵerengero cha mtengo wa lendi yapachaka ya nyumba ndi mtengo wopezera nyumba:
1-chipinda
5,11%
2-chipinda
4,80%
3-chipinda
4,94%
okha
4,93%
Analandira chiwongola dzanja cha 4,93% pachaka chifukwa chobwereketsa nyumba mopitilira kukwera kwa mitengo. Ndizosangalatsanso kuti nyumba zotsika mtengo zachipinda chimodzi ndizopindulitsa kwambiri kubwereka. Tidayerekeza mtengo wopereka, womwe muzochitika zonse ziwiri (kubwereketsa ndi kugula) ndi wokwera pang'ono, kotero palibe kusintha komwe kumafunikira. Komabe, zosintha zina zimafunikira: nyumba zobwereketsa nthawi zina zimafunika kukonzedwa bwino, zimatenga nthawi kuti mupeze munthu wobwereka nyumba ndipo nyumbazo zilibe kanthu, nthawi zina zolipira zothandizira sizikuphatikizidwa mumtengo wobwereketsa pang'ono kapena zonse, ndipo pamenepo. ndikutsikanso pang'ono kwa nyumba m'zaka zapitazi.
Poganizira zosintha, kuchokera kubwereketsa nyumba zokhalamo, mutha kukhala ndi ndalama zokwana 4,5% pachaka (kupitilira kuti katunduyo satsika mtengo). Ngati zokolola zotere ndizosangalatsa, Sberbank ili ndi zotsatsa zambiri pa DomClick.
Kusanthula kwakale kwa mitengo ya depositi
Ndalama za ruble ku Russia pazaka zingapo zapitazi zakwera kwambiri kuposa kukwera kwa mitengo. Koma osati ndi 4,5%, monga malo ogulitsa nyumba, koma, pafupifupi, ndi 2%.
Pachithunzi chomwe chili pansipa, tikuwona mphamvu zofananiza mitengo ya depositi ndi kukwera kwa mitengo.
Ndiwona nthawi yoti ndalama zochokera ku depositi zimaposa kukwera kwa mitengo yamphamvu kuposa momwe zilili pamwambapa pazifukwa izi:
- Mutha kukonza chiwongola dzanja pa ma depositi owonjezeredwa panthawi yabwino kwa miyezi ingapo pasadakhale
- Kuyika ndalama pamwezi, zomwe zimadziwika ndi zopereka zambiri zomwe zimaphatikizidwa muzowerengera, zimawonjezera phindu chifukwa cha chiwongola dzanja chowirikiza
- Pamwambapa adaganiziranso mitengo ya mabanki apamwamba 10 malinga ndi chidziwitso cha Bank of Russia, kunja kwa 10 apamwamba mungapeze mitengo yokwera pang'ono.
Ponena za madipoziti mu madola ndi ma euro, ndinganene kuti amamenya kukwera kwamitengo mu madola ndi ma euro, motero, ofooka kuposa ruble amamenya kukwera kwa inflation.
Kusanthula kwakale kwa msika wamasheya
Tsopano tiyeni tiwone msika wosiyanasiyana komanso wowopsa wa masheya aku Russia. Kubweza kwa ndalama m'matangadza sikukhazikika ndipo kumatha kusiyana kwambiri. Komabe, ngati musinthanitsa katundu ndikuyika ndalama kwa nthawi yayitali, mutha kutsata chiwongola dzanja chapakati pachaka chomwe chikuwonetsa kupambana pakuyika ndalama mu stock portfolio.
Kwa owerenga omwe ali kutali ndi mutuwo, ndinena mawu ochepa okhudza ma indices a stock. Ku Russia, pali ndondomeko ya Moscow Exchange, yomwe imasonyeza mphamvu ya mtengo wa ruble wa mbiri yomwe ili ndi 50 yaikulu kwambiri ya Russia. Kapangidwe ka index ndi gawo la magawo a kampani iliyonse zimatengera kuchuluka kwa ntchito zamalonda, kuchuluka kwa bizinesi, kuchuluka kwa magawo omwe amagawidwa. Tchati chomwe chili pansipa chikuwonetsa momwe Moscow Exchange index (i.e. mbiri yakale) yakula m'zaka zaposachedwa.
Eni ake am'matangadza ambiri amalipidwa nthawi ndi nthawi zomwe zitha kubwezeretsedwanso m'matangadza omwe adapeza ndalama. Misonkho imaperekedwa pamapindu omwe mwalandira. The Moscow Exchange Index sichimaganizira zokolola zamagulu.
Choncho, tidzakhala ndi chidwi kwambiri ndi Moscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR), yomwe imaganizira zopindula zomwe talandira ndi msonkho wochotsedwa ku magawowa. Tiyeni tiwone pa tchati chomwe chili pansipa momwe index iyi yasinthira zaka zaposachedwa. Kuphatikiza apo, timaganizira za inflation ndikuwona momwe index iyi idakulira pamitengo yamakono:
Grafu yobiriwira ndi mtengo weniweni wa mbiri yakale pamitengo yamakono, ngati mumagwiritsa ntchito Moscow Exchange index, nthawi zonse mubwereze zopindula ndikulipira misonkho.
Tiyeni tiwone kukula kwa index ya MCFTR pazaka 1,2,3,…,11 zapitazi. Iwo. Kodi kubweza kwathu kukanakhala chiyani ngati titagula magawo molingana ndi index iyi ndikubwezanso magawo omwe alandilidwa m'magawo omwewo:
Zaka
Kunyumba
Конец
Mtengo wa MCFTR
molawirira Ndi
poganizira
infl.
Mtengo wa MCFTR
con. Ndi
poganizira
infl.
Coeff.
kukula
Chaka ndi chaka
kokwanira
kukula
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2020
3835,52
5095,54
1,328513
1,152612
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2020
3113,38
5095,54
1,636659
1,178472
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2020
3115,30
5095,54
1,635650
1,130896
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2020
2682,35
5095,54
1,899655
1,136933
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2020
2488,07
5095,54
2,047989
1,126907
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2020
2497,47
5095,54
2,040281
1,107239
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2020
2634,99
5095,54
1,933799
1,085929
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2020
3245,76
5095,54
1,569907
1,051390
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
2847,81
5095,54
1,789284
1,059907
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2020
2223,17
5095,54
2,292015
1,078318
Tikuwona kuti, titagulitsa zaka zingapo zapitazo, tikadapambana kukwera kwa mitengo ya 5-18% pachaka, kutengera kupambana kwa malo olowera.
Tiyeni tipange tebulo linanso - osati phindu pazaka zonse za N zomaliza, koma phindu panyengo iliyonse yomaliza ya chaka cha N:
Год
Kunyumba
Конец
Mtengo wa MCFTR
molawirira Ndi
poganizira
infl.
Mtengo wa MCFTR
con. Ndi
poganizira
infl.
Chaka ndi chaka
kokwanira
kukula
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2019
3835,52
4697,47
1,224728
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2018
3113,38
3835,52
1,231947
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2017
3115,30
3113,38
0,999384
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2016
2682,35
3115,30
1,161407
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2015
2488,07
2682,35
1,078085
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2014
2497,47
2488,07
0,996236
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2013
2634,99
2497,47
0,947810
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2012
3245,76
2634,99
0,811825
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2011
2847,81
3245,76
1,139739
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2010
2223,17
2847,81
1,280968
Tikuwona kuti si zaka zonse zomwe zinali zopambana, koma zaka zosapambana zinatsatiridwa ndi zaka zopambana, zomwe "zinakonza chirichonse".
Tsopano, kuti timvetsetse bwino, tiyeni tingoyang'ana mlozerawu ndikuyang'ana chitsanzo cha masheya enaake, zotsatira zake zingakhale zotani ngati mutaikapo ndalama mu stock iyi zaka 15 zapitazo, mutabwezanso zopindula ndikulipira misonkho. Tiyeni tiwone zotsatira zake poganizira za inflation, i.e. pamitengo yapano. Pansipa pali chitsanzo cha gawo wamba la Sberbank. Chithunzi chobiriwira chikuwonetsa mphamvu za mtengo wamtengo wapatali, womwe poyamba unali ndi gawo limodzi la Sberbank pamitengo yamakono, poganizira kubwezeretsedwa kwa zopindula. Kwa zaka 15, kukwera kwa mitengo kwatsika ruble ndi 3.014135 nthawi. Gawo la Sberbank pazaka zapitazi lakwera mtengo kuchokera ku ma ruble 21.861. mpaka 218.15 rubles, i.e. mtengo wakwera ndi 9.978958 nthawi kupatula kukwera kwa inflation. Pazaka izi, mwiniwake wa gawo limodzi adalipidwa nthawi zosiyanasiyana magawo, ukonde wa misonkho, mu kuchuluka kwa ma ruble 40.811613. Kuchuluka kwa magawo omwe amalipidwa akuwonetsedwa pa tchati ngati timitengo tofiira molunjika ndipo samatchula tchati chomwe, momwe zopindula ndi kubwezanso kwawo zimaganiziridwanso. Ngati nthawi zonse zopindulazi zidagwiritsidwanso ntchito kugula magawo a Sberbank kachiwiri, ndiye kumapeto kwa nthawi yomwe mwiniwakeyo alibe kale, koma magawo 1.309361. Poganizira za kubwezeretsedwa kwa malipiro ndi kutsika kwa mitengo, mbiri yakale yawonjezeka pamtengo wa 4.334927 nthawi pa zaka 15, i.е. idakwera mtengo ndi 1.102721 nthawi pachaka. Ponseponse, gawo wamba la Sberbank linabweretsa eni ake pafupifupi 10,27% pachaka kuposa kukwera kwa inflation pazaka 15 zapitazi:
Monga chitsanzo china, tiyeni titenge chithunzi chofanana ndi mphamvu zamagawo okondedwa a Sberbank. Gawo lokondedwa la Sberbank linabweretsa eni ake mochulukira, 13,59% pachaka kuposa kukwera kwa inflation pazaka 15 zapitazi:
Zotsatira izi zidzakhala zotsika pang'ono pochita, chifukwa pogula magawo muyenera kulipira komisheni yaying'ono yobwereketsa. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, zotsatira zake zikhoza kukhala zabwino kwambiri ngati mutagwiritsa ntchito Individual Investment Account, yomwe imakulolani kuti mulandire msonkho wochokera ku boma pamtengo wochepa. Ngati simunamvepo izi, ndiye kuti mufufuze chidule cha "IIS". Tisaiwalenso kunena kuti IIS ikhoza kutsegulidwa ku Sberbank.
Chifukwa chake, talandila kale kuti ndizopindulitsa kwambiri kuyika ndalama m'masheya kuposa malo ndi ma depositi. Zosangalatsa, apa pali kugunda kwamasheya apamwamba 20 omwe akhala akugulitsa pamsika kwazaka zopitilira 10, zomwe zapezedwa chifukwa cha kusanthula kwa data. M'gawo lomaliza, tikuwona kuchuluka kwa masheya omwe amakula pafupifupi chaka chilichonse, poganizira za kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kubwezeredwa kwa zopindula. Tikuwona kuti masheya ambiri akugunda kutsika kwa mitengo ndi 10%:
Kutsatsa
Kunyumba
Конец
Coeff. kukwera kwa mitengo
Kuyambira mtengo
Con. mtengo
Kutalika
manambala
magawo
pomalipira
kubwezeretsa-
masiteshoni
divi-
dendov,
nthawi
chomaliza
wapakati
pachaka
kukula, nthawi
Lenzoloto
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1267,02
17290
2,307198
1,326066
NKNKH ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
5,99
79,18
2,319298
1,322544
MGTS-4ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
339,99
1980
3,188323
1,257858
Chithunzi cha 3ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
72,77
538,8
2,037894
1,232030
MGTS-5ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
380,7
2275
2,487047
1,230166
Akron
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
809,88
5800
2,015074
1,226550
Lenzol. pamwamba
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
845
5260
2,214068
1,220921
NKNK JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
14,117
92,45
1,896548
1,208282
Lenerg-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
25,253
149,5
1,904568
1,196652
GMKNorNik
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
4970
19620
2,134809
1,162320
Surgnfgz-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
13,799
37,49
2,480427
1,136619
IRKUT-3
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
8,127
35,08
1,543182
1,135299
Tatnft 3ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
146,94
558,4
1,612350
1,125854
Novatek JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
218,5
1080,8
1,195976
1,121908
SevSt-AO
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
358
908,4
2,163834
1,113569
Klaseb awo
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
3,25
7,07
2,255269
1,101105
Mtengo wa CHTPZ JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
55,7
209,5
1,304175
1,101088
Sberbank-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
56,85
203,33
1,368277
1,100829
PIK JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
108,26
489,5
1,079537
1,100545
LUKOIL
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1720
5115
1,639864
1,100444
Tsopano, pokhala ndi deta yotsitsa, tidzathetsa mavuto angapo pamutu wa zomwe zikuyenera kuyikapo ndalama, ngati tikukhulupirira kuti zochitika za nthawi yayitali pamtengo wa magawo ena zidzapitirira. Zikuwonekeratu kuti sikuli koyenera kuneneratu za mtengo wamtsogolo molingana ndi tchati cham'mbuyomo, koma tidzayang'ana opambana pakuikapo ndalama kwa nthawi zakale m'magulu angapo.
Ntchito. Pezani masheya omwe amaposa malo ogulitsa nyumba (CAGR 1.045 kuposa inflation) kuchuluka kwanthawi zonse muzaka 10 zapitazi za chaka chimodzi chomwe masheya adagulitsidwa.
M'ntchito izi ndi zotsatirazi, tikutanthauza chitsanzo chapamwambachi ndikubwezeretsanso zopindula ndi kuwerengera ndalama za inflation.
Nawa opambana m'gululi malinga ndi kusanthula kwathu deta. Zogulitsa zomwe zili pamwamba pa tebulo zimayenda bwino chaka ndi chaka popanda dips. Pano Chaka 1 ndi 30.07.2019/30.07.2020/2-30.07.2018/30.07.2019/XNUMX, Chaka XNUMX ndi XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX-XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX, ndi zina zotero:
Kutsatsa
Chiwerengero
kupambana
kwatha
nyumba ndi zomangidwa
dinani-
st
kwa
pambuyo-
masiku
Zaka 10
Chaka cha 1
Chaka cha 2
Chaka cha 3
Chaka cha 4
Chaka cha 5
Chaka cha 6
Chaka cha 7
Chaka cha 8
Chaka cha 9
Chaka cha 10
Chithunzi cha 3ap
8
0,8573
1,4934
1,9461
1,6092
1,0470
1,1035
1,2909
1,0705
1,0039
1,2540
MGTS-4ap
8
1,1020
1,0608
1,8637
1,5106
1,7244
0,9339
1,1632
0,9216
1,0655
1,6380
Mtengo wa CHTPZ JSC
7
1,5532
1,2003
1,2495
1,5011
1,5453
1,2926
0,9477
0,9399
0,3081
1,3666
SevSt-AO
7
0,9532
1,1056
1,3463
1,1089
1,1955
2,0003
1,2501
0,6734
0,6637
1,3948
NKNK JSC
7
1,3285
1,5916
1,0821
0,8403
1,7407
1,3632
0,8729
0,8678
1,0716
1,7910
MGTS-5ao
7
1,1969
1,0688
1,8572
1,3789
2,0274
0,8394
1,1685
0,8364
1,0073
1,4460
Gazpromneft
7
0,8119
1,3200
1,6868
1,2051
1,1751
0,9197
1,1126
0,7484
1,1131
1,0641
Tatnft 3ao
7
0,7933
1,0807
1,9714
1,2109
1,0728
1,1725
1,0192
0,9815
1,0783
1,1785
Lenerg-p
7
1,3941
1,1865
1,7697
2,4403
2,2441
0,6250
1,2045
0,7784
0,4562
1,4051
NKNKH ap
7
1,3057
2,4022
1,2896
0,8209
1,2356
1,6278
0,7508
0,8449
1,5820
2,4428
Surgnfgz-p
7
1,1897
1,0456
1,2413
0,8395
0,9643
1,4957
1,2140
1,1280
1,4013
1,0031
Tikuwona kuti ngakhale atsogoleri sanapambane malo okhudzana ndi phindu chaka chilichonse. Kudumpha kwamphamvu pamlingo wopindulitsa m'zaka zosiyanasiyana kukuwonetsa kuti ngati mukufuna kukhazikika, ndikwabwino kusinthanitsa katundu, ndikuyika ndalama mu index.
Tsopano tikupanga ndi kuthetsa vuto lotere kuti tifufuze deta. Kodi ndi koyenera kuganiza pang'ono, nthawi iliyonse mukugula masheya masiku M lisanafike tsiku lolipira magawo ndi kugulitsa magawo N patatha masiku atatu tsiku lobwezera lisanafike? Kodi ndi bwino kukolola zopindula ndi "kutuluka m'sitolo" kusiyana ndi "kukhala m'matangadza" chaka chonse? Tiyerekeze kuti palibe zotayika pa komishoni kuchokera pakutuluka kotereku. Ndipo kusanthula deta kudzatithandiza kupeza malire a M ndi N corridor, yomwe m'mbiri yakale yakhala yopambana kwambiri pakukolola zopindula m'malo mokhala ndi magawo kwa nthawi yaitali.
Nayi anecdote yochokera ku 2008.
John Smith, yemwe adalumpha kuchokera pawindo la 75th floor ku Wall Street, atagunda pansi, adalumpha mamita 10, zomwe zinamuthandiza kubwerera m'mawa.
Momwemonso ndi zopindula: timaganiza kuti mu kayendetsedwe ka msika pafupi ndi tsiku la malipiro a magawo, kuwonetseredwa kwakukulu kwa msika kumawonekera, i.e. pazifukwa zamaganizidwe, msika ukhoza kugwa kapena kuwuka kuposa kuchuluka kwa magawo omwe amafunikira.
Ntchito. Yerekezerani kuchuluka kwa kubweza kwa magawo pambuyo popereka zopindula. Kodi ndikwabwino kulowa m'masiku oyambilira kubweza ngongole ndikutuluka pakapita nthawi kuposa kukhala ndi masheya chaka chonse? Ndi masiku angati kuti malipiro agawidwe asanabwezedwe ndiyenera kulowa m'masheya ndipo ndi masiku angati mutapereka gawoli ndiyenera kusiya katunduyo kuti ndipeze phindu lalikulu?
Mtundu wathu wawerengera kusiyanasiyana konseku m'lifupi kwa dera lozungulira masiku olipira magawo m'mbiri yonse. Zoletsa zotsatirazi zidavomerezedwa: M<=30, N>=20. Chowonadi ndi chakuti tsiku ndi kuchuluka kwa malipiro sizidziwika nthawi zonse kuposa masiku 30 musanapereke malipiro. Komanso, zopindula sizimabwera ku akaunti nthawi yomweyo, koma mochedwa. Tikukhulupirira kuti zimatenga masiku osachepera 20 kuti titsimikizidwe kuti tilandila zopindula muakaunti ndikubwezanso. Ndi zoletsedwa izi, chitsanzocho chinapanga yankho lotsatirali. Nthawi yabwino yogulira masheya ndi masiku 34 tsiku lolipira magawo lisanafike ndikugulitsa patatha masiku 25 kuchokera tsiku lolipira. Pansi pazimenezi, kukula kwapakati pa 3,11% panthawiyi kunapezedwa, zomwe zimapereka 20,9% pachaka. Iwo. ndi chitsanzo cha ndalama zomwe zimaganiziridwa (ndi kubwezeredwa kwa zopindula ndikuganizira za kukwera kwa mitengo), ngati mutagula gawo masiku 34 lisanafike tsiku la malipiro a gawo ndikuligulitsa patatha masiku 25 pambuyo pa tsiku la malipiro, ndiye kuti tili ndi 20,9% pachaka pamwamba pa inflation. mlingo. Izi zimatsimikiziridwa ndi chiwongolero pazochitika zonse za malipiro a magawo kuchokera ku database yathu.
Mwachitsanzo, pagawo lokondedwa la Sberbank, njira yotulutsira yotereyi ingapangitse kukula kwa 11,72% kuposa kuchuluka kwa inflation paulendo uliwonse wotuluka pafupi ndi tsiku lolipira magawo. Izi zikufikira 98,6% pachaka kuposa kuchuluka kwa inflation. Koma ichi, ndithudi, ndi chitsanzo cha mwachisawawa mwayi.
Kutsatsa
pakhomo
Tsiku lagawo
Tulukani
Coeff. kukula
Sberbank-p
10.05.2019
13.06.2019
08.07.2019
1,112942978
Sberbank-p
23.05.2018
26.06.2018
21.07.2018
0,936437635
Sberbank-p
11.05.2017
14.06.2017
09.07.2017
1,017492563
Sberbank-p
11.05.2016
14.06.2016
09.07.2016
1,101864592
Sberbank-p
12.05.2015
15.06.2015
10.07.2015
0,995812419
Sberbank-p
14.05.2014
17.06.2014
12.07.2014
1,042997818
Sberbank-p
08.03.2013
11.04.2013
06.05.2013
0,997301095
Sberbank-p
09.03.2012
12.04.2012
07.05.2012
0,924053861
Sberbank-p
12.03.2011
15.04.2011
10.05.2011
1,010644958
Sberbank-p
13.03.2010
16.04.2010
11.05.2010
0,796937418
Sberbank-p
04.04.2009
08.05.2009
02.06.2009
2,893620094
Sberbank-p
04.04.2008
08.05.2008
02.06.2008
1,073578067
Sberbank-p
08.04.2007
12.05.2007
06.06.2007
0,877649005
Sberbank-p
25.03.2006
28.04.2006
23.05.2006
0,958642001
Sberbank-p
03.04.2005
07.05.2005
01.06.2005
1,059276282
Sberbank-p
28.03.2004
01.05.2004
26.05.2004
1,049810801
Sberbank-p
06.04.2003
10.05.2003
04.06.2003
1,161792898
Sberbank-p
02.04.2002
06.05.2002
31.05.2002
1,099316569
Chifukwa chake, chiwonetsero chamsika chomwe tafotokoza pamwambapa chikuchitika, ndipo m'masiku olipira omwe amagawika, zokolola zakhala zokwera pang'ono kuposa momwe amagawana chaka chonse.
Tiyeni tiyike chitsanzo chathu ntchito inanso yosanthula deta:
Ntchito. Pezani masheya okhala ndi mwayi wopeza nthawi zonse potuluka pa tsiku lolipira. Tiwunika kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zagawika zomwe zidapangitsa kuti zitheke kupeza ndalama zoposa 10% pachaka kuposa kuchuluka kwa inflation, ngati mutalowa m'sitolo masiku 34 zisanachitike ndikutuluka masiku 25 kuchokera tsiku lolipira.
Tikambirana zamasheya omwe padali milandu 5 yolipira magawo. Zotsatira za hit parade zikuwonetsedwa pansipa. Dziwani kuti zotsatira zake zimakhala zamtengo wapatali pokhapokha pakuwona vuto la kusanthula deta, koma osati monga chitsogozo chothandizira pakuyika ndalama.
Kutsatsa
Chiwerengero cha
milandu yopambana
kuposa 10% pachaka
pamwamba pa inflation
Chiwerengero cha
milandu
malipiro
zopindula
Gawani
milandu
chigonjetso
Avereji ya coefficient kukula
Lenzoloto
5
5
1
1,320779017
IDGC SZ
6
7
0,8571
1,070324870
Rollman-p
6
7
0,8571
1,029644533
Rosseti pa
4
5
0,8
1,279877637
Kubanenr
4
5
0,8
1,248634960
Mtengo wa magawo LSR JSC
8
10
0,8
1,085474828
Malingaliro a kampani ALROSA JSC
8
10
0,8
1,042920287
FGC UES JSC
6
8
0,75
1,087420610
NCSP JSC
10
14
0,7143
1,166690777
KuzbTK JSC
5
7
0,7143
1,029743667
Kuchokera pakuwunika kwa msika wamasheya, titha kunena izi:
- Zatsimikiziridwa kuti kubweza kwa magawo omwe amalengezedwa muzinthu za broker, makampani oyika ndalama ndi magulu ena achidwi ndi apamwamba kuposa madipoziti ndi malo ogulitsa nyumba.
- Kusasunthika kwa msika wamsika ndikokwera kwambiri, koma ndizotheka kuyika ndalama kwa nthawi yayitali ndikusiyana kwakukulu kwa mbiriyo. Pofuna kuchotsera msonkho wowonjezera 13% poika ndalama ku IIS, ndibwino kuti mutsegule nokha msika ndipo izi zitha kuchitika, kuphatikiza ku Sberbank.
- Kutengera kusanthula kwa zotsatira za nthawi zam'mbuyo, atsogoleri adapezeka potsata phindu lalikulu lokhazikika komanso phindu lolowera mozungulira pafupi ndi tsiku lolipira magawo. Komabe, zotsatira zake siziri zomveka ndipo simuyenera kutsogoleredwa ndi iwo okha mu ndalama zanu. Izi zinali zitsanzo za ntchito zosanthula deta.
Chiwerengero
Ndi bwino kusunga mbiri ya katundu wanu, komanso ndalama zomwe mumapeza ndi ndalama zomwe mumawononga. Zimathandiza pakukonzekera ndalama. Ngati mumatha kusunga ndalama, ndiye kuti pali mwayi woyika ndalamazo pamtengo wapamwamba kuposa inflation. Kusanthula deta kuchokera Sberbank deta nyanja anasonyeza kuti madipoziti pachaka kubwerera 2%, yobwereka nyumba - 4,5%, ndi magawo Russian - pafupifupi 10% pamwamba kukwera kwa inflation ndi zoopsa kwambiri.
Wolemba: Mikhail Grichik, katswiri wa akatswiri a Sberbank SberProfi DWH/BigData.
Gulu la akatswiri a SberProfi DWH/BigData ali ndi udindo wopanga maluso m'malo monga Hadoop ecosystem, Teradata, Oracle DB, GreenPlum, komanso zida za BI Qlik, SAP BO, Tableau, ndi zina zambiri.
Source: www.habr.com