Pa January 11, 1914, mawu ochokera kwa Henry Ford anatuluka mu New York Times:
βNdikukhulupirira kuti pakangotha ββchaka tiyamba kupanga galimoto yamagetsi. Sindimakonda kulankhula za chaka chamtsogolo, koma ndikufuna ndikuuzeni zinazake za mapulani anga. Chowonadi ndi chakuti ine ndi Bambo Edison takhala tikugwira ntchito kwa zaka zingapo kuti tipange magalimoto amagetsi otsika mtengo komanso othandiza. Anapangidwa ngati kuyesa ndipo ndife okhutira kuti njira yopita kuchipambano ndiyodziwikiratu. Vuto la magalimoto amagetsi mpaka pano lakhala kupanga batire yopepuka yomwe imatha kugwira ntchito mtunda wautali popanda kuyitanitsa. Bambo Edison akhala akuyesa batire yotere kwa nthawi ndithu.
Koma china chake chalakwika...
Thomas Edison ndi Detroit Electric
Bukuli ndi kupitiriza kwanzeru kwa nkhani yanga yapitayi
parameter ili kuti r zimakhudza kuchuluka kwa kukula kwa msika, popeza ndizomwe zimapangidwira - ndipamwamba kwambiri coefficient iyi, mofulumira teknoloji yatsopano idzagonjetsa msika, i.e. Chaka chilichonse teknoloji iyenera kukhala yosangalatsa kwa anthu ambiri chifukwa cha kuphweka kwake. K coefficient kufotokoza kukula kwa teknoloji yatsopano, i.e. pamtengo wotsika wa K, ukadaulo sungathe kulanda msika wonse, koma utha kugonjetsa gawo la msika momwe lingakhale losangalatsa kwambiri kuposa ukadaulo wakale.
Vutoli ndikupeza magawo ofunikira alogistic equation yomwe imatilola kulosera zakukula kwamakampani amagalimoto amagetsi okwera:
- "Year Zero" ndi chaka chomwe theka la magalimoto okwera omwe amagulitsidwa padziko lonse lapansi adzakhala ndi injini yamagetsi (P0=0,5, t=0);
- kukula kwa msika (r) magalimoto amagetsi.
Pamenepa, tinene kuti:
- Magalimoto amagetsi azichotsa magalimoto okhala ndi injini zoyatsira mkati (ICE) pamsika (K = 1), popeza sindikuwona zomwe zingalole kugawa msika wamagalimoto onyamula anthu.
Msika wa magalimoto olemera ndi zipangizo zapadera sizinaganizidwe polemba chitsanzo, ndipo palibe msika wa magalimoto amagetsi mkati mwa makampaniwa.
- Tsopano tikukhala mu "nthawi yoyipa" (P (t) <0) ndipo mu ntchitoyi tidzagwiritsa ntchito kuchotsera kwa "zero chaka" cha nthawi yathu (t-t0).
Ziwerengero zama voliyumu ogulitsa magalimoto okwera zimatengedwa kuchokera
Ziwerengero zogulitsa magalimoto amagetsi zotengedwa ku
Ziwerengero zisanafike 2012 pa magalimoto amagetsi ndizosowa kwambiri ndipo sizingaganizidwe mu phunziroli.
Zotsatira zake, tili ndi data iyi:
Pulogalamu yopeza Year Zero ndi kukula kwa msika
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math
x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468, 64341693]) # ΠΊΠΎΠ»-Π²ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π»Π΅Π³ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠ½
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247, 1940147]) # ΠΊΠΎΠ»-Π²ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π»Π΅Π³ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»Π΅ΠΉ
y = y2/y1 #Π΄ΠΎΠ»Ρ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»Π΅ΠΉ Π² ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡΠ²Π΅ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»Π΅ΠΉ
ymax=1 #ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΎΡ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ
Gmax=2025 #Π³ΠΎΠ΄ Π΄Π»Ρ Π½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΈΡΠΊΠ° "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°"
rmax=0.35 #Π½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½Ρ
k=1 #ΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΡΡ "1" ΠΈΠ· ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ»ΠΊΠΈ, ΡΡΠΎ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡ Π»Π΅Π³ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ Ρ ΠΠΠ‘
p0=0.5 # ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΠ° Π² "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠΉ Π³ΠΎΠ΄"
for j in range(10): # ΡΠΈΠΊΠ» ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π±ΠΎΡΠ° "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΡΡ
Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ²"
x0=2025+j
r=0.35
for i in range(10): # ΡΠΈΠΊΠ» ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π±ΠΎΡΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° Π² ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠΌ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Ρ"
r=0.25+0.02*i
y4=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))-y
# print(str(x0).ljust(20), str(r).ljust(20), max(abs(y4)))
if max(abs(y4))<=ymax: # ΠΏΠΎΠΈΡΠΊ ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈΠ· ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π²Π½ΡΡΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠ΅ r
ymax=max(abs(y4))
Gmax=x0
rmax=r
print(str(Gmax).ljust(20), str(rmax).ljust(20), ymax) # Π²ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°", ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° r ΠΈ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈΠ· ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ
Chifukwa cha pulogalamuyi, zotsatirazi zidasankhidwa:
Chaka zero ndi 2028.
Kukula kokwanira - 0.37
Kupatuka kwakukulu kwa ziwerengero kuchokera pamtengo wantchito ndi 0.005255.
Chithunzi cha ntchitoyi pakati pa 2012 ndi 2019 chikuwoneka motere:
Chithunzi chomaliza chokhala ndi zolosera mpaka 2050 chikuwoneka motere:
Tchatichi chikuwonetsa kudulidwa kwa 99% ya msika wonse, i.e. Pofika 2040, magalimoto amagetsi adzalowa m'malo mwa magalimoto ndi injini zoyatsira mkati.
Ntchito graphing pulogalamu
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math
x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468, 64341693])
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247, 1940147])
y = y2/y1
k=1
p0=0.5
x0=2028
r=0.37
y1=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))
#Π‘ΡΡΠΎΠΈΠΌ Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΊ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π·ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ 2012 ΠΈ 2019 Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5")
plt.grid()
ax.plot(x, y, 'o', color='tab:brown')
ax.plot(x, y1)
#Π‘ΡΡΠΎΠΈΠΌ Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΊ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π·ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ 2010 ΠΈ 2050 Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ
x = np.linspace(2010, 2050)
y2 = [k*p0*math.e**(r*(i-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(i-x0))-1)) for i in x]
y3 = 0.99+0*x
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5")
ax.set_xlim([2010, 2050])
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
plt.grid()
plt.plot(x, y2, x, y3)
anapezazo
Potsatira mfundo yofanana ndi yomwe ikufotokoza mbiri ya chitukuko cha magalimoto okhala ndi injini zoyaka mkati, ndinayesera kulosera za chitukuko cha makampani oyendetsa magalimoto oyendetsa galimoto pogwiritsa ntchito ziwerengero zomwe zilipo.
Zotsatira zomwe zapezedwa zikuwonetsa kuti pofika chaka cha 2030, theka la magalimoto onyamula anthu padziko lonse lapansi adzakhala ndi injini yamagetsi, ndipo pofika chaka cha 2040, magalimoto onyamula anthu okhala ndi injini zoyatsira mkati adzakhala zinthu zakale.
Inde, pambuyo pa 2030, anthu ena adzayendetsa magalimoto a petulo omwe adagula 2030 isanafike, koma adzadziwa kuti kugula kwawo kudzakhala galimoto yamagetsi.
Kukula kwa magalimoto amagetsi ndi nthawi ya 4 kuposa kukula kwa magalimoto omwe ali ndi injini zoyaka mkati, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti matekinoloje atsopano amalowa m'miyoyo yathu mofulumira, kukhala gawo loletsa moyo wathu watsiku ndi tsiku (pano tikukumbukira mafoni a m'manja) .
M'zaka zikubwerazi, vuto lomwe Edison sanathe kuthana nalo liyenera kuthetsedwa - batire yokwanira yokwanira yomwe ingalole kuti pakhale nthawi yayitali pakati pa malo opangira.
Kuti mupange maukonde a malo opangira mafuta ofanana ndi maukonde omwe alipo a gasi, ndikofunikira kukonzanso ma network omwe alipo m'mizinda ikuluikulu komanso m'misewu yayikulu.
Komanso, kukula kwa malonda a magalimoto amagetsi kudzalephereka
PS
Ngati Edison adatha kuthetsa vuto lomwe adapatsidwa, ndiye kuti "zaka zamafuta" sizikadayamba ...
Ogwiritsa ntchito olembetsedwa okha ndi omwe angatenge nawo gawo pa kafukufukuyu.
Ndi liti pamene aliyense aziyendetsa magalimoto amagetsi?
-
9,5%pofika chaka cha 2030, aliyense adzasinthira ku magalimoto amagetsi, osati theka la 18
-
20,0%Pofika chaka cha 2040, aliyense adzasintha kupita ku magalimoto amagetsi38
-
48,4%palibe kale kuposa 2050
-
22,1%Galimoto yamagetsi sidzalowa m'malo mwa galimoto yamafuta42
Ogwiritsa 190 adavota. Ogwiritsa ntchito 37 adakana.
Source: www.habr.com