Nkhani zotsatizanazi zaperekedwa pakuphunzira ntchito yomanga mumzinda waukulu wa Silicon Valley - San Francisco. San Francisco ndi "Moscow" zamakono zamakono za dziko lathu lapansi, pogwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo chake (mothandizidwa ndi deta yotseguka) kuyang'ana chitukuko cha zomangamanga m'mizinda ikuluikulu ndi mizinda ikuluikulu.
Kupanga ma graph ndi kuwerengera kunachitika mkati (pa nsanja ya Kaggle.com).
Zambiri pazilolezo zomanga zopitilira miliyoni (zolemba m'magawo awiri) kuchokera ku dipatimenti yomanga ya San Francisco - zimalola kusanthula osati ntchito yomanga mumzinda, komanso kuganizira mozama zaposachedwa komanso mbiri yachitukuko chamakampani omanga pazaka 40 zapitazi, pakati pa 1980 ndi 2019.
Tsegulani deta imapangitsa kufufuza zinthu zazikulu zomwe zakhudza ndipo zidzakhudza chitukuko cha zomangamanga mu mzinda, kuwagawa iwo kukhala "akunja" (kuchulukira kwachuma ndi zovuta) ndi "zamkati" (chikoka cha maholide ndi kuzungulira kwapachaka).
Zamkatimu
Tsegulani deta ndikuwunikanso magawo oyambira.
Uku sikumasulira kwa nkhaniyi. Ndimalemba pa LinkedIn ndipo kuti ndisapange zithunzi m'zilankhulo zingapo, zithunzi zonse zili mu Chingerezi.
Lumikizani ku gawo lachiwiri:
City of San Francisco Building Permit Data - Kuchokera ku Open Data Portal - . Khomo lili ndi ma dataset angapo pamutu wakumanga. Zigawo ziwiri zotere zimasunga ndikusintha zilolezo zoperekedwa pomanga kapena kukonza zinthu mumzinda:
- (850 mbiri)
- (Zolemba 280, deta imatsitsidwa ndikusinthidwa sabata iliyonse)
Ma dataset awa ali ndi chidziwitso chokhudza zilolezo zomanga zoperekedwa, zokhala ndi mawonekedwe osiyanasiyana a chinthu chomwe chilolezocho chimaperekedwa. Chiwerengero chonse cha zolemba (zilolezo) zolandilidwa mu nthawi 1980-2019 - 1 zilolezo.
Zofunikira zazikulu zapagululi zomwe zidagwiritsidwa ntchito kusanthula:
- tsiku lololeza_kulenga - tsiku lopanga ntchito (kwenikweni, tsiku lomwe ntchito yomanga imayamba)
- kufotokoza - Kufotokozera za ntchito (mawu awiri kapena atatu ofotokozera ntchito yomanga (ntchito) yomwe chilolezocho chinapangidwira)
- mtengo - mtengo woyerekeza (woyerekeza) wa ntchito yomanga
- revised_cost - mtengo wokonzedwanso (mtengo wa ntchito pambuyo powunikiranso, kuwonjezereka kapena kutsika kwa ma voliyumu oyamba akugwiritsa ntchito)
- kugwiritsa_kugwiritsa ntchito - mtundu wa nyumba (imodzi, nyumba ya mabanja awiri, nyumba, maofesi, kupanga, etc.)
- zipcode, location - khodi ya positi ndi makonzedwe a zinthu
Ntchito yomanga pachaka ku San Francisco
Grafu ili m'munsiyi ikuwonetsa magawo mtengo ΠΈ revised_cost zoperekedwa ngati kugawa kwa mtengo wonse wantchito pamwezi.
data_cost_m = data_cost.groupby(pd.Grouper(freq='M')).sum()Kuti muchepetse "zogulitsa kunja" pamwezi, deta ya pamwezi imagawidwa ndi chaka. Ma graph a kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe adayikidwapo pachaka adalandira mawonekedwe omveka bwino komanso osanthula.
data_cost_y = data_cost.groupby(pd.Grouper(freq='Y')).sum()
Kutengera kusuntha kwapachaka kwa kuchuluka kwa ndalama (zilolezo zonse zapachaka) kupita kumizinda Zinthu zachuma zomwe zidakhudzidwa kuyambira 1980 mpaka 2019 zikuwonekera bwino pa chiwerengero ndi mtengo wa ntchito yomanga, kapena zina pa ndalama mu San Francisco real estate.
Chiwerengero cha zilolezo zomanga (chiwerengero cha ntchito zomanga kapena kuchuluka kwa ndalama) pazaka 40 zapitazi zakhala zikugwirizana kwambiri ndi zochitika zachuma ku Silicon Valley.
Chiwongola dzanja choyamba cha ntchito yomanga chinali chogwirizana ndi hype yamagetsi yapakati pa 80s m'chigwachi. Kutsika kwachuma kwamagetsi ndi mabanki mu 1985 kudapangitsa kuti msika wamalo ogulitsa nyumba ukhale pansi pomwe sunabwererenso kwazaka pafupifupi khumi.
Pambuyo pake, nthawi zina ziwiri (mu 1993-2000 ndi 2009-2016) isanagwe kuwira kwa Dotcom ndi ukadaulo wazaka zaposachedwa. Makampani omanga ku San Francisco akumana ndi kukula kwamphamvu kwa masauzande angapo..
Pochotsa nsonga zapakatikati ndikusiya zotsika komanso zotsika mtengo pazachuma chilichonse, zikuwonekeratu momwe kusinthasintha kwakukulu kwa msika kwavutitsa makampani pazaka 40 zapitazi.
Kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa ndalama zomangamanga kunachitika panthawi ya dot-com boom, pamene pakati pa 1993 ndi 2001 $ 10 biliyoni adayikidwa mu kukonzanso ndi kumanga, kapena pafupifupi $ 1 biliyoni pachaka. Ngati tiwerengera masikweya mita (mtengo wa 1 mΒ² mu 1995 ndi $3000), izi ndi pafupifupi 350 m000 pachaka kwa zaka 2, kuyambira 10.
Kukula kwa ndalama zonse zapachaka panthawiyi kunali 1215%.
Makampani amene anachita lendi zipangizo zomangira panthawiyi anali ofanana ndi makampani amene ankagulitsa mafosholo pa nthawi ya golide (mβdera lomwelo chapakati pa zaka za mβma 19). Pokhapokha m'malo mwa mafosholo, m'zaka za m'ma 2000 panali kale ma cranes ndi mapampu a konkire a makampani omanga atsopano omwe ankafuna kupanga ndalama pa ntchito yomanga.
Pambuyo pa zovuta zilizonse zomwe makampani omanga akumana nazo kwazaka zambiri, pazaka ziwiri zotsatira pambuyo pavuto, ndalama (kuchuluka kwa zofunsira zilolezo) zomanga idatsika ndi 50% nthawi iliyonse.
Mavuto akulu kwambiri pantchito yomanga ku San Francisco adachitika m'ma 90s. Kumene, ndi periodicity wa zaka 5, makampani mwina anagwa (-85% mu nthawi 1983-1986), kenako anauka kachiwiri (+ 895% mu nthawi 1988-1992), otsala mawu pachaka 1981, 1986, 1988. , 1993 - pamlingo womwewo.
Pambuyo pa 1993, kutsika konse kotsatira muzomangamanga sikunapitirire 50%. Koma mavuto azachuma akuyandikira (chifukwa cha COVID-19) zitha kubweretsa vuto lalikulu pantchito yomanga mu nthawi ya 2017-2021, kuchepa kwake komwe kale mu nthawi ya 2017-2019 kuli kokwanira kuposa 60%.
Kukula kwa anthu ku San Francisco dynamics mu nthawi ya 1980-1993 komanso adawonetsa kukula kokulirapo. Kulimba kwachuma komanso mphamvu zatsopano za Silicon Valley zinali maziko olimba pomwe ma hyperbole a New Economy, American Renaissance, ndi dot-coms adamangidwira. Unali pachimake cha chuma chatsopano. Koma mosiyana ndi kukwera kwa ndalama zogulitsa nyumba, pambuyo pa chiwonjezeko cha dot-com, chiwerengero cha anthu chinakweradi.
Asanafike pachimake cha dot-com mu 2001, kuchuluka kwa anthu pachaka kuyambira 1950 kwakhala pafupifupi 1% pachaka. Kenako, pambuyo pa kugwa kwa kuwira, kuchuluka kwa anthu atsopano kunachepa ndipo kuyambira 2001 kwakhala 0.2 peresenti pachaka.
Mu 2019 (kwa nthawi yoyamba kuyambira 1950), kukula kwachitukuko kunawonetsa kuchuluka kwa anthu (-0.21% kapena anthu 7000) ochokera mumzinda wa San Francisco.
Chiyembekezo ndi zenizeni pokonzekera kuyerekezera mtengo
M'ma dataset omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito, deta ya mtengo wa chilolezo cha ntchito yomanga imagawidwa mu:
- mtengo woyerekeza woyambirira (mtengo)
- mtengo wa ntchito pambuyo powunikiranso (revised_cost)
Panthawi ya boom, cholinga chachikulu chowunikiranso ndikuwonjezera mtengo woyambira, pomwe wogulitsa (makasitomala omanga) akuwonetsa chidwi atayamba kumanga.
Panthawi yamavuto, amayesa kuti asapitirire ndalama zomwe akuyembekezeka, ndipo zowerengera zoyambira sizisintha (kupatula chivomezi cha 1989).
Malinga ndi graph yomwe idapangidwa pamasiyana pakati pa mtengo wowunikidwanso ndi woyerekeza (revised_cost - predict_cost), zitha kuwoneka kuti:
Kuchulukira kwa mtengo pakuwunikanso kuchuluka kwa ntchito yomanga mwachindunji kumadalira kukwera kwachuma
data_spread = data_cost.assign(spread = (data_cost.revised_cost-data_cost.estimated_cost))
Panthawi ya kukula kwachuma, makasitomala ogwira ntchito (ogulitsa ndalama) amawononga ndalama zawo mowolowa manja, ndikuwonjezera zopempha zawo pambuyo poyambira ntchito.
Makasitomala (wogulitsa ndalama), akudzidalira pazachuma, amafunsa womanga nyumba kapena womanga kuti awonjezere chilolezo chomanga chomwe chaperekedwa kale. Izi zitha kukhala chisankho chowonjezera kutalika kwa dziwe kapena kukulitsa dera lanyumba (pambuyo poyambira ntchito ndikutulutsa chilolezo chomanga).
Pachimake cha nyengo ya dot-com, ndalama "zowonjezera" zoterozo zinafika "zowonjezera" 1 biliyoni pachaka.
Ngati muyang'ana pa tebulo ili kale mu kusintha kwa chiwerengero, ndiye kuti kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa chiwerengero (100% kapena 2 nthawi ya mtengo woyambirira) kunachitika chaka chisanachitike chivomezi chomwe chinachitika mu 1989 pafupi ndi mzindawu. Ndikuganiza kuti chivomezicho chitachitika, ntchito yomanga imene inayamba mu 1988 itatha, chivomezicho chitatha mu 1989, panafunika nthawi yochuluka ndi ndalama zoyendetsera ntchitoyi.
Mosiyana ndi izi, kuwunikanso kutsika kwa mtengo woyerekeza (omwe udachitika kamodzi kokha kuyambira 1980 mpaka 2019) zaka zingapo chivomezi chisanachitike mwina chifukwa chakuti ma projekiti ena omwe adayamba mu 1986-1987 adayimitsidwa kapena ndalama zamapulojekitiwa zidachepetsedwa. pansi. Pa ndandanda pa avareji pa projekiti iliyonse yomwe idayamba mu 1987 - kutsika kwa mtengo wake kunali -20% ya pulani yoyambirira.
data_spred_percent = data_cost_y.assign(spred = ((data_cost_y.revised_cost-data_cost_y.estimated_cost)/data_cost_y.estimated_cost*100))
Kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo woyerekeza woyambira wopitilira 40% kunawonetsa kapena mwina kudabwera chifukwa chakuyandikira kwachuma komanso msika womanga.
Chifukwa chiyani kuchepa kwa kufalikira (kusiyana) pakati pa mtengo woyerekeza ndi kusinthidwa pambuyo pa 2007?
Mwina osunga ndalama anayamba kuyang'ana mosamala manambala (avareji ndalama pa zaka 20 chinawonjezeka $100 zikwi $2 miliyoni) kapena mwina dipatimenti yomanga, kuletsa ndi kuletsa akutuluka thovu mu msika wa nyumba, anayambitsa malamulo atsopano ndi zoletsa kuchepetsa zotheka mpheto. ndi zoopsa zomwe zingabwere m'zaka zamavuto.
Ntchito yomanga malinga ndi nyengo ya chaka
Mwa kuyika zidziwitso m'masabata a kalendala pachaka (masabata 54), mutha kuwona ntchito yomanga mumzinda wa San Francisco kutengera nyengo ndi nthawi yachaka.
Pofika Khrisimasi, mabungwe onse omanga akuyesera kupeza chilolezo cha ntchito zatsopano "zazikulu" munthawi yake. (panthawi yomweyo! chiwerengero! cha zilolezo mβmiyezi yomweyi chili pamlingo wofanana chaka chonse). Otsatsa malonda, akukonzekera kupeza katundu wawo m'chaka chotsatira, amalowa m'miyezi yozizira, akuwerengera kuchotsera kwakukulu (popeza mapangano a chilimwe, makamaka, akufika kumapeto kwa chaka ndipo makampani omangamanga ali ndi chidwi. polandira mapulogalamu atsopano).
Khrisimasi isanachitike, zopempha zambiri zimatumizidwa (kuchokera pa avareji ya 1-1,5 biliyoni pamwezi kufika 5 biliyoni mu December wokha). Pa nthawi yomweyi, chiwerengero chonse cha mapulogalamu pamwezi chimakhalabe pamlingo womwewo (onani m'munsimu gawo: ziwerengero za chiwerengero cha mapulogalamu mwezi ndi tsiku)
Pambuyo pa tchuthi chachisanu, makampani omangamanga akukonzekera mwakhama ndikukhazikitsa malamulo a "Khirisimasi" (popanda kuwonjezeka kwa zilolezo) kuti amasule chuma pakati pa chaka (chisanafike holide ya Ufulu wa Ufulu) chisanafike chatsopano. mafunde a chilimwe makontrakitala amayamba atangotha ββββtchuthi June.
data_month_year = data_month_year.assign(week_year = data_month_year.permit_creation_date.dt.week)
data_month_year = data_month_year.groupby(['week_year'])['estimated_cost'].sum()
Zomwezo peresenti deta (mzere wa lalanje) imasonyezanso kuti makampaniwa amagwira ntchito "mosalala" chaka chonse, koma isanafike kapena pambuyo pa tchuthi, ntchito pa zilolezo zimawonjezeka kufika 150% pakati pa sabata 20-24 (Isanafike Tsiku la Ufulu), ndi amachepetsa mwamsanga pambuyo pa tchuthi mpaka -70%.
Pasanathe Halowini ndi Khrisimasi, ntchito zomanga za San Francisco zimakwera ndi 43% mkati mwa sabata 44-150 (kuchokera pansi mpaka pachimake) kenako zimatsika mpaka ziro patchuthi.
Chifukwa chake, makampaniwa ali m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi, yomwe imasiyanitsidwa ndi tchuthi "Tsiku la Ufulu wa US" (sabata 20) ββndi "Khrisimasi" (sabata 52).
Ndalama zonse zogulitsa nyumba ku San Francisco
Kutengera ndi zomwe zilolezo zomanga mumzindawu:
Ndalama zonse zomanga ku San Francisco kuyambira 1980 mpaka 2019 ndi $ 91,5 biliyoni.
sf_worth = data_location_lang_long.cost.sum()
Mtengo wokwanira wamsika wanyumba zonse zokhala ku San Francisco zoyesedwa ndi misonkho yanyumba (pokhala mtengo woyesedwa wa malo ndi nyumba zonse za San Francisco) .
Ndi madera ati aku San Francisco omwe adayikapo ndalama pazaka 40 zapitazi?
Pogwiritsa ntchito laibulale ya Folium, tiyeni tiwone komwe $ 91,5 biliyoni iyi idayikidwa ndi dera. Kuti tichite izi, kugawa deta ndi zip code, tidzayimira zotsatira pogwiritsa ntchito mabwalo (ntchito ya Circle kuchokera ku laibulale ya Folium).
import folium
from folium import Circle
from folium import Marker
from folium.features import DivIcon
# map folium display
lat = data_location_lang_long.lat.mean()
long = data_location_lang_long.long.mean()
map1 = folium.Map(location = [lat, long], zoom_start = 12)
for i in range(0,len(data_location_lang_long)):
Circle(
location = [data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['lat'], data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['long']],
radius= [data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['cost']/20000000],
fill = True, fill_color='#cc0000',color='#cc0000').add_to(map1)
Marker(
[data_location_mean.iloc[i]['lat'], data_location_mean.iloc[i]['long']],
icon=DivIcon(
icon_size=(6000,3336),
icon_anchor=(0,0),
html='<div style="font-size: 14pt; text-shadow: 0 0 10px #fff, 0 0 10px #fff;; color: #000";"">%s</div>'
%("$ "+ str((data_location_lang_long.iloc[i]['cost']/1000000000).round()) + ' mlrd.'))).add_to(map1)
map1
Zikuwonekeratu kuchokera kumadera kuti Ambiri mwa pie adapita ku DownTown. Popeza tachepetsa kusanjika kwa zinthu zonse ndi mtunda wapakati pa mzindawo komanso nthawi yomwe imatenga kuti mukafike pakatikati pa mzinda (zowona, nyumba zodula zikumangidwanso pagombe), zilolezo zonse zidagawidwa m'magulu 4: 'Downtown' , '<0.5H Downtown', '< 1H Downtown', 'Kunja kwa SF'.
from geopy.distance import vincenty
def distance_calc (row):
start = (row['lat'], row['long'])
stop = (37.7945742, -122.3999445)
return vincenty(start, stop).meters/1000
df_pr['distance'] = df_pr.apply (lambda row: distance_calc (row),axis=1)
def downtown_proximity(dist):
'''
< 2 -> Near Downtown, >= 2, <4 -> <0.5H Downtown
>= 4, <6 -> <1H Downtown, >= 8 -> Outside SF
'''
if dist < 2:
return 'Downtown'
elif dist < 4:
return '<0.5H Downtown'
elif dist < 6:
return '<1H Downtown'
elif dist >= 6:
return 'Outside SF'
df_pr['downtown_proximity'] = df_pr.distance.apply(downtown_proximity)Mwa 91,5 biliyoni omwe adayikidwa mu mzindawu, pafupifupi 70 biliyoni (75% ya ndalama zonse) zomwe zidayikidwa pakukonza ndi kumanga zili pakati pa mzindawu. (malo obiriwira) komanso kudera lamzindawu pamtunda wa 2 km. kuchokera pakati (zone yabuluu).
Avereji ya mtengo wa ntchito yomanga malinga ndi chigawo cha mzinda
Deta yonse, monga momwe ndalama zonse zakhalira, zidagawidwa ndi zip code. Pokhapokha pa avareji (.mean()) mtengo woyerekeza wa kugwiritsa ntchito ndi zip code.
data_location_mean = data_location.groupby(['zipcode'])['lat','long','estimated_cost'].mean()
M'madera wamba a mzinda (kuposa 2 km kuchokera pakati pa mzinda) - pafupifupi mtengo wa ntchito yomanga ndi $50 zikwi.
Avereji ya mtengo wapakati pa mzindawo ndi pafupifupi kuwirikiza katatu ($ 150 zikwi $400 zikwi) kuposa m'madera ena ($ 30-50 zikwi).
Kuphatikiza pa mtengo wa malo, pali zinthu zitatu zomwe zimatsimikizira mtengo wonse womanga nyumba: antchito, zipangizo, ndi malipiro a boma. Zigawo zitatuzi ndizokwera ku California kuposa m'dziko lonselo. Malamulo omanga aku California amaonedwa kuti ndi omveka komanso okhwima kwambiri mdziko muno (chifukwa cha zivomezi ndi malamulo achilengedwe), nthawi zambiri amafuna zida zokwera mtengo komanso ntchito.
Mwachitsanzo, boma limafuna kuti omanga nyumba agwiritse ntchito zipangizo zomangira zapamwamba (mazenera, zotsekereza, zotenthetsera ndi kuzizira) kuti akwaniritse miyezo yapamwamba yamagetsi.
Kuchokera paziwerengero za mtengo wapakati wa pempho la chilolezo, malo awiri akuwonekera:
- Chilumba cha Chuma - chilumba chopanga ku San Francisco Bay. Mtengo wapakati wa chilolezo chomanga ndi $ 6,5 miliyoni.
- Ntchito Bay - (anthu 2926) Avereji ya mtengo wa chilolezo chomanga ndi $1,5 miliyoni.
M'malo mwake, kuchuluka kwapakati pamagawo awiriwa kumakhudzana ndi chiwerengero chochepa cha mapulogalamu a malo awa (145 ndi 3064 motsatana, zomangamanga pachilumbachi ndizochepa), pomwe ma code ena onse - XNUMXndipo nthawi ya 1980-2019 idalandira pafupifupi zofunsira 1300 pachaka (okwana pafupifupi 30 -50 zikwi zofunsira nthawi yonseyi).
Malinga ndi gawo la "chiwerengero cha mapulogalamu", kugawa bwino kwa chiwerengero cha mapulogalamu pa positi mu mzinda wonse kumawoneka.
Ziwerengero za kuchuluka kwa mapulogalamu pamwezi ndi tsiku
Ziwerengero zonse za kuchuluka kwa mapulogalamu mwezi ndi tsiku la sabata pakati pa 1980 ndi 2019 zikuwonetsa kuti Miyezi yabata kwambiri ku dipatimenti yomanga ndi miyezi ya masika ndi yozizira. Nthawi yomweyo, kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zafotokozedwa muzofunsira zimasiyana kwambiri ndipo zimasiyana mwezi ndi mwezi nthawi zina. (onaninso βNtchito yomanga kutengera nyengoβ). Pakati pa masiku a sabata, Lolemba katundu pa dipatimentiyo amakhala pafupifupi 20% poyerekeza ndi masiku ena a sabata.
months = [ 'January', 'February', 'March', 'April', 'May','June', 'July', 'August', 'September', 'October', 'November', 'December' ]
data_month_count = data_month.groupby(['permit_creation_date']).count().reindex(months)
Ngakhale kuti June ndi July ali ofanana mofanana ndi chiwerengero cha ntchito, malinga ndi ndalama zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa, kusiyana kumafika pa 100% (4,3 biliyoni mu May ndi July ndi 8,2 biliyoni mu June).
data_month_sum = data_month.groupby(['permit_creation_date']).sum().reindex(months)
Tsogolo lamakampani omanga ku San Francisco, kuneneratu zochitika ndi machitidwe.
Pomaliza, tiyeni tiyerekeze tchati cha ntchito yomanga ku San Francisco ndi tchati chamtengo wa Bitcoin (2015-2018) ndi tchati chamtengo wagolide (1940 - 1980).
Chitsanzo (kuchokera pa Chingelezi chitsanzo - chitsanzo, chitsanzo) - mu kusanthula luso khola mobwerezabwereza kuphatikiza mtengo, voliyumu kapena chizindikiro deta amatchedwa. Kusanthula kwachitsanzo kumachokera pa imodzi mwa mfundo za kusanthula kwaukadaulo: "mbiri imadzibwereza yokha" - akukhulupirira kuti kuphatikiza mobwerezabwereza kwa data kumabweretsa zotsatira zofanana.
Njira yayikulu yomwe ingawoneke pa tchati cha zochitika zapachaka ndi Iyi ndi njira yosinthira "Mutu ndi Mapewa". Amatchedwa chifukwa tchatichi chimawoneka ngati mutu wa munthu (nsonga) ndi mapewa kumbali (nsonga zazing'ono). Pamene mtengo umathyola mzere wolumikiza mbiya, chitsanzocho chimaonedwa kuti ndi chokwanira ndipo kayendetsedwe kake kakhoza kukhala pansi.
Kusuntha kwa ntchito mumakampani omanga ku San Francisco pafupifupi kumagwirizana kwathunthu ndi kukwera kwa mtengo wa golide ndi bitcoin. Mbiri yakale ya ma chart awa amitengo ndi zochitika zikuwonetsa kufanana kwakukulu.
Kutha kulosera momwe msika womanga ungakhalire mtsogolo, m'pofunika kuwerengera coefficient coefficient ndi chilichonse mwa njira ziwirizi.
Mitundu iwiri yachisawawa imatchedwa correlated ngati mphindi yolumikizana (kapena coefficient coefficient) ndi yosiyana ndi ziro; ndipo amatchedwa kuchuluka kosagwirizana ngati nthawi yolumikizana ndi ziro.
Ngati mtengo wotsatira uli pafupi ndi 0 kusiyana ndi 1, ndiye palibe chifukwa choyankhula za ndondomeko yomveka bwino. Ili ndivuto la masamu lovuta, lomwe lingatengedwe ndi ma comrades achikulire omwe angakhale ndi chidwi ndi mutuwu.
Ngati! zosagwirizana ndi sayansi! yang'anani pa mutu wa chitukuko china cha zomangamanga ku San Francisco: ngati chitsanzocho chikupitiriza kugwirizana ndi mtengo wa Bitcoin, ndiye malinga ndi njira yokayikitsa iyi - kuchoka muvuto la ntchito yomanga ku San Francisco sikudzakhala kosavuta panthawi yamavuto.
Ndi njira yowonjezereka "yachiyembekezo". chitukuko, mobwerezabwereza kukula kwachangu mu ntchito yomanga ndi kotheka ngati ntchito apa ikutsatira "mtengo wa golide" zochitika. Pankhaniyi, mu zaka 20-30 (mwina 10), gawo la zomangamanga lidzakumana ndi kuwonjezeka kwatsopano kwa ntchito ndi chitukuko.
Ndidzayang'anitsitsa magawo apadera a zomangamanga (kukonza madenga, khitchini, kumanga masitepe, zipinda zosambira, ngati muli ndi malingaliro pa mafakitale kapena deta ina - chonde lembani mu ndemanga) ndikuyerekeza kukwera kwa mitengo yamitundu yosiyanasiyana ya ntchito. mitengo yokhazikika yangongole zanyumba ndi phindu la ma bond aboma aku US (Fixed Mortgage Rates & US Treasury Yield).
Lumikizani ku gawo lachiwiri:
Lumikizani ku Jupyter Notebook:
Chonde, kwa iwo omwe ali ndi Kaggle, perekani Notebook kuphatikiza (Zikomo!).
(Ndemanga ndi mafotokozedwe a code zidzawonjezedwa pambuyo pake mu Notebook)
Lumikizani ku mtundu wa Chingerezi:
Ngati mumakonda zomwe ndili nazo, chonde ganizirani zondigulira khofi.
zikomo chifukwa cha thandizo lanu!
Ogwiritsa ntchito olembetsedwa okha ndi omwe angatenge nawo gawo pa kafukufukuyu. chonde.
Kodi tsogolo la ntchito yomanga ku San Francisco liri lotani?
-
66,7%Gawo la zomangamanga ndiloyenera kutsatira njira ya Bitcoin2
-
0,0%Ntchito yomanga ikhoza kutsatira njira yamitengo yagolide0
-
0,0%Gawoli likuyembekeza kukwera kwazaka 10 zikubwerazi
-
33,3%Kukula kwa gawoli sikukuyenda motsatira ndondomeko1
Ogwiritsa ntchito 3 adavota. Ogwiritsa 6 adakana.
Source: www.habr.com