Mfalansa Fabrice Grinda wakhala akukonda kuyika pachiwopsezo - adayikapo ndalama m'makampani mazana ambiri: Alibaba, Airbnb, BlaBlaCar, Uber komanso analogue yaku Russia ya Booking - ntchito ya Oktogo. Ali ndi chibadwa chapadera pazochitika, zomwe zidzachitike m'tsogolo.
Monsieur Grinda sanangoikapo ndalama m'mabizinesi a anthu ena, komanso adapanga ake. Mwachitsanzo, gulu la mauthenga a pa intaneti la OLX, lomwe limagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi anthu mamiliyoni mazana ambiri, ndilo ubongo wake.
Kuonjezera apo, nthawi zina amathera nthawi yolemba zolemba ndikulemba zolemba zotsutsana koma zosangalatsa. Za chomwe chiri ndi chomwe chidzakhala. Iye ali ndi chidwi m'tsogolo - monga Investor ndi wamasomphenya.
Zaka zingapo zapitazo, adayankhulana ndi magazini ya Alliancy yokambirana za dziko mu 2030.
Magazini ya Alliancy: Kodi mukuwona kusintha kwakukulu kotani pazaka 10?
Fabrice: Zinthu za intaneti, mwachitsanzo, mafiriji omwe amayitanitsa chakudya ikatha, kutumiza ma drone ndi zina zotero. Zonse zikubwera. Kuphatikiza apo, ndikuwona zopambana zofunika m'mbali zisanu: magalimoto, kulumikizana, mankhwala, maphunziro ndi mphamvu. Tekinoloje ilipo, tsogolo lafika kale, sizili zofanana kulikonse. Kutumiza kwakukulu kumafuna ndalama zotsika komanso zosavuta kugwiritsa ntchito.
Magalimoto adzakhala "ogawana". Mpaka pano, magalimoto odziyendetsa okha ayenda kale makilomita mamiliyoni ambiri popanda chochitika. Koma ngati galimoto yanthawi zonse ku United States imawononga ndalama zosakwana $20.000, ndiye kuti dongosolo lomwe limakupatsani mwayi kuti musinthe kukhala galimoto yodziyendetsa nokha limawononga pafupifupi 100.000. Kuchokera pamalingaliro azachuma, kugwiritsa ntchito wamba sikuthekabe. Palibenso maziko alamulo, popeza mβpofunika kusankha amene adzakhale ndi mlandu pakagwa ngozi.
Nanga bwanji phindu?
Magalimoto ndi gwero lachiwiri la ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito panyumba, ngakhale pafupifupi 95% ya nthawi yomwe imakhala yopanda ntchito. Anthu akupitiriza kugula magalimoto chifukwa ndi otchipa kusiyana ndi kugwiritsa ntchito Uber ndi dalaivala, ndipo galimotoyo imapezeka nthawi iliyonse, makamaka m'madera omwe muli anthu ochepa.
Koma mtengo wa madalaivala ukatha ndipo magalimoto amakhala odziyimira pawokha, mtengo wake waukulu udzakhala kutsika kwazaka zingapo. Galimoto "yogawana", yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito 90% ya nthawiyo, idzakhala yotsika mtengo - kotero pamagulu onse, kukhala ndi galimoto sikudzakhalanso zomveka. Mabizinesi amagula magalimoto angapo ndikuwapatsa mabizinesi ena omwe angawagwiritse ntchito, monga Uber, yokhala ndi dongosolo lokwanira kuti galimoto ipezeke pakatha mphindi zingapo, kuphatikiza m'malo omwe mulibe anthu ambiri. Izi zidzasokoneza kwambiri anthu chifukwa kuyendetsa galimoto ndiye gwero lalikulu la ntchito ku United States. Ogwira ntchito ambiri adzamasulidwa, ndipo mtengo woyendetsa galimoto udzatsika.
Kodi pakhala kusintha kosiyanasiyana pakulankhulana?
Ayi. Chida chofala kwambiri, popanda zomwe zimakhala zovuta kulingalira moyo, foni yam'manja, idzatha kwathunthu. M'malo mwake, tapita patsogolo kwambiri "kuwerenga ubongo" ndipo tili pamlingo womwewo monga kuzindikira mawu kunali zaka 15 zapitazo. Ndiyeno, kaamba ka zifuno zimenezi, munafunikira khadi lapadera lamphamvu ndi maola ophunzitsidwa bwino kuti liwu lanu lizindikirike bwino lomwe. Masiku ano, mwa kuvala chisoti chokhala ndi maelekitirodi 128 pamutu panu ndi maola omwewo akuphunzitsidwa, mutha kuphunzira kuwongolera m'maganizo mwanu cholozera pakompyuta ndikuyendetsa ndege. Mu 2013, kulumikizana kwaubongo ndi ubongo kudapangidwanso; wina, pogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu yamalingaliro, adatha kusuntha dzanja la munthu wina ...
Mu 2030, tidzagwira ntchito komwe tikufuna, nthawi yomwe tikufuna komanso kwautali womwe tikufuna.
Kodi tikuyembekezera chiyani?
Ndizotheka kwathunthu kuti m'zaka 10 tidzakhala ndi maelekitirodi owonekera komanso osawoneka muubongo wathu, zomwe zimatilola kugwiritsa ntchito malingaliro athu kutumiza malangizo ku kompyuta yaying'ono kuti atiwonetse maimelo, zolemba zogwiritsa ntchito ma laser pamagalasi omwe aziwonetsa. retina kapena kugwiritsa ntchito magalasi anzeru.
Tidzakhala ndi mtundu wa "telepathy yabwino", tidzasinthana zambiri m'maganizo: Ndikuganiza kuti mawu, ndikutumiza kwa inu, mumawerenga pa retina kapena pamagalasi. Sitidzafunikanso chipangizo chovala chokhala ndi kansalu kakang'ono komanso mutu wathu nthawi zonse umakhala wopendekera kwa icho, zomwe zimatisokoneza ndi kuchepetsa gawo lathu lakuwona. Koma ngakhale zaka 10 izi zidzakhala chiyambi chabe. Ma laser omwe amatha kutumiza zithunzi ku retina alipo, koma magalasi akadali otsika. Kuwerenga m'maganizo kukadali koyerekeza ndipo kumafuna kompyuta yayikulu yokhala ndi maelekitirodi 128. Mu 2030, chofanana ndi makina apamwamba kwambiri oterowo chidzawononga $ 50. Zingatenge zaka 20-25 kuti mupange maelekitirodi ang'onoang'ono komanso ogwira mtima, komanso mapulogalamu ofanana. Komabe, mafoni a m'manja adzatha.
Nanga bwanji za mankhwala?
Masiku ano, madokotala asanu akhoza kupereka mitundu isanu ya matenda omwe ali ndi matenda omwewo chifukwa anthu sali odziwa bwino matenda. Chifukwa chake, Watson, makompyuta apamwamba kwambiri ochokera ku IBM, ndiwabwino kuposa madokotala pozindikira mitundu ina ya khansa. Pali zomveka mu izi, chifukwa zimatengera micron iliyonse ya zotsatira za MRI kapena X-ray, ndipo dokotala amayang'ana zosaposa mphindi zingapo. Mu zaka 5, diagnostics adzakhala kupezeka kwa makompyuta okha, mu zaka 10, tidzakhala ndi chilengedwe diagnostic chipangizo onse matenda wamba, kuphatikizapo chimfine, HIV ndi ena.
Pa nthawi yomweyi, kusintha kudzachitika pa opaleshoni. Dokotala wa robot "Da Vinci" wachita kale maopaleshoni mamiliyoni asanu. Opaleshoni idzapitilirabe kukhala ya robotic kapena yodzichitira okha, ndikuchepetsa kusiyana kwa zokolola pakati pa maopaleshoni. Kwa nthawi yoyamba, mtengo wamankhwala uyamba kutsika. Kuonjezera apo, mapepala onse ndi kusagwira ntchito bwino kwa kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kabwino kake. Mu zaka 10 tidzakhala ndi diagnostics ndi ndemanga nthawi zonse zimene tiyenera kuchita pankhani ya zakudya, mankhwala, opaleshoni kwambiri ogwira ndi mtengo wotsika kwambiri zachipatala.
Kusintha kwina - maphunziro?
Ngati tikanati tinyamule Socrates kumka kunthaΕ΅i yathu, sakanamvetsetsa kalikonse kusiyapo mmene ana athu amaphunzirira: aphunzitsi osiyanasiyana amalankhula ndi kalasi ya ophunzira 15 mpaka 35. Palibe chifukwa chopitirizira kuphunzitsa ana athu momwemonso zaka 2500 zapitazo, chifukwa wophunzira aliyense ali ndi luso ndi zofuna zosiyana. Tsopano popeza dziko likusintha mofulumira kwambiri, lingalirani mmene kuliri koseketsa kuti maphunziro ali ndi nthaΕ΅i yochepa ndipo amasiya akamaliza sukulu kapena kuyunivesite. Maphunziro ayenera kukhala opitilira, ochitika moyo wonse, komanso ogwira mtima.
NB kuchokera kwa mkonzi: Ndikhoza kulingalira momwe Socrates angadabwire ataona momwe athu . Ngati kuchulukirachulukira kwapaintaneti mliri wa coronavirus usanachitike kunali kofananako ndi maphunziro akale (holo yophunzirira, aphunzitsi olankhula, ophunzira pamagome, m'malo mwa miyala yadongo kapena gumbwa, ma laputopu ndi mapiritsi, m'malo mwa "maieutics" kapena "Socratic irony" kapena ndi zochitika zothandiza), zomwe sizinasinthe kwambiri mu zida kuyambira nthawi yakale, ndiye nkhani kudzera pa Zoom, chipinda chosuta fodya ndi kulankhulana pa Telegalamu, mawonedwe ndi mavidiyo ojambulidwa a makalasi mu akaunti yanu ... Ndithudi, Socrates sakanamvetsa izi. . Chifukwa chake tsogolo lafika kale - ndipo sitinazindikire. Ndipo mliri wa coronavirus watikakamiza kuti tisinthe.
Kodi izi zidzasintha bwanji luso lathu?
Pamasamba ngati Coursera, mwachitsanzo, pulofesa wabwino kwambiri pamakampani ake amapereka maphunziro apa intaneti kwa ophunzira 300.000. Ndizomveka kuti mphunzitsi wabwino aphunzitse ophunzira ambiri! Ndi okhawo amene akufuna kupeza digirii omwe amalipira kuti alembe mayeso. Izi zimapangitsa kuti dongosololi likhale labwino kwambiri.
Nanga masukulu a pulaimale ndi sekondale?
Pakadali pano, masukulu ena akuyesa makina ophunzitsira okha. Apa mphunzitsi salinso makina olankhulira, koma mphunzitsi. Maphunzirowa amachitika pogwiritsa ntchito mapulogalamu, omwe amafunsa mafunso ndipo amatha kutengera ophunzira. Ngati wophunzira alakwitsa, pulogalamuyo imabwereza mfundozo mβnjira zina, ndipo pokhapokha wophunzirayo akamvetsa zonse mβpamene imapita ku siteji yotsatira. Ophunzira a mβkalasi imodzi amapita pa liwiro lawo. Uku sikumapeto kwa sukulu, chifukwa kuwonjezera pa chidziwitso, muyenera kuphunzira kulankhulana ndi kuyanjana, chifukwa cha izi muyenera kuzunguliridwa ndi ana ena. Anthu ali ngati zolengedwa zina.
Chinachake?
Kupambana kwakukulu kudzakhala kupitilira maphunziro. Zofunikira zikusintha kwambiri, pakugulitsa zaka zingapo zapitazo kunali kofunikira kudziwa momwe mungakulitsire mawonekedwe anu mumainjini osakira (SEO). Lero, muyenera kumvetsetsa kukhathamiritsa kwa sitolo ya app (ASO). Mwadziwa bwanji? Tengani maphunziro pamasamba ngati Udemy, mtsogoleri pagawoli. Amapangidwa ndi ogwiritsa ntchito ndipo amapezeka kwa aliyense $ 1 mpaka $ 10 ...
NB kuchokera kwa mkonzi: Kunena zoona, ine sindiri wotsimikiza kuti maphunziro opangidwa ndi ogwiritsa ntchito osati akatswiri ndi lingaliro labwino. Dziko lapansi tsopano ladzaza ndi mabulogu oyenda komanso okongola. Ngati aphunzitsi-olemba mabulogu adzazidwanso ndi madzi osefukira, zidzakhala zovuta kupeza zofunikira komanso zaukadaulo mu mulu wazinthu. kupanga maphunziro othandiza kwenikweni chimodzimodzi , yozikidwa osati mβmabuku ndi nkhani, koma pa nkhani zoyeserera ndi zoyesedwa. Chabwino, ndipo paulendo womwe mumakumana nawo - mukadakhala kuti popanda iwo pantchito yanu ndikuzindikira zida zatsopano.
Mwachidule, kodi dziko logwira ntchito lisintha?
Zakachikwi (obadwa pambuyo pa 2000) amadana ndi kugwira ntchito kuyambira 9 mpaka 18, kugwira ntchito kwa abwana, abwana mwiniwake. Pakali pano tikuwona kukula kwakukulu kwa bizinesi ku US, kulimbikitsidwa ndi kupezeka kwa mapulogalamu angapo omwe akufunika. Theka la ntchito zomwe zidapangidwa kuyambira kugwa kwachuma kwa 2008 ndi anthu omwe amadzigwirira ntchito kapena omwe amagwira ntchito ku Uber, Postmates (kutumiza chakudya kunyumba), Instacart (kutumiza chakudya kuchokera kwa oyandikana nawo).
Izi ndi ntchito zamunthu zomwe zimapezeka mukapempha ...
Ntchito za cosmetologist, manicure, kumeta tsitsi, zoyendera. Ntchito zonsezi zatsegulidwanso ndi kusinthasintha kwakukulu. Malingaliro awa amagwiranso ntchito pamapulogalamu, kusintha, ndi ntchito zamapangidwe. Ntchito ikucheperachepera ndipo imafuna nthawi yochepa. Zaka 2030 zimagwira ntchito usana ndi usiku sabata yoyamba ndipo kenako maola asanu otsatira. Ndalama kwa iwo ndi njira yopezera chidziwitso cha moyo. Mu XNUMX iwo adzakhala theka la anthu ogwira ntchito.
Kodi tidzakhala osangalala mu 2030?
Osati kwenikweni, popeza anthu amasintha msangamsanga kusintha kwa malo awo, njira yotchedwa hedonic adaptation. Komabe, tidzakhalabe ambuye a tsogolo lathu. Tidzagwira ntchito mochuluka kapena pang'ono momwe tikufunira. Pa avareji, anthu adzakhala ndi thanzi labwino ndi maphunziro. Mtengo wa zinthu zambiri udzakhala wotsika, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti moyo ukhale wabwino kwambiri.
Ndiye sipadzakhala kusiyana pakati pa anthu?
Pakambidwa za kufalikira kwa kusalingana, koma zoona zake nβzakuti pali kugwirizana kwa magulu a anthu. Mu 1900, anthu olemera anapita kutchuthi, koma osati osauka. Lero wina akuwulukira pa jeti payekha, wina pa EasyJet, koma onse amakwera ndege ndi kupita kutchuthi. 99% ya anthu osauka a ku America ali ndi madzi ndi magetsi, ndipo 70% mwa iwo ali ndi galimoto. Mukayang'ana zinthu monga kufa kwa makanda ndi kutalika kwa moyo, kusalingana kukugwa.
Nanga bwanji za kusintha kwa nyengo ndi mtengo wamagetsi, kodi zingakhudze izi?
Nkhaniyi idzathetsedwa popanda kuwongolera komanso kulowererapo kwa boma. Tikupita ku chuma chopanda malasha, koma pazifukwa zachuma. Megawati imodzi ya mphamvu yadzuwa tsopano ikuwononga ndalama zosakwana dola imodzi, poyerekeza ndi $100 mu 1975. Izi zinali zotsatira za njira zopangira bwino komanso zokolola. Kugwirizana kwa mtengo wamagetsi adzuwa kwapezekanso m'madera ena komwe nyumba zopangira magetsi ndizokwera mtengo. Mu 2025, mtengo wa kilowatt wa solar udzakhala wocheperapo mtengo wa kilowatt yamakala popanda thandizo. Izi zikachitika, mabiliyoni mabiliyoni a madola adzayikidwa mu ndondomekoyi. Mu 2030, kuyambika kofulumira kwa mphamvu ya dzuwa kudzayamba. Mtengo wa megawati udzakhala wotsika kwambiri, zomwe zidzachepetsa mtengo wa zinthu zina zambiri ndikuwongolera moyo wabwino. Ndili ndi chiyembekezo.
Ogwiritsa ntchito olembetsedwa okha ndi omwe angatenge nawo gawo pa kafukufukuyu. chonde.
Kodi mukukhulupirira zolosera za Fabrice Grinde?
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28,9%Inde, ndikukhulupirira28
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18,6%Ayi, izi sizingachitike18
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52,6%Ndinalipo kale, Doc, sizili choncho.51
Ogwiritsa 97 adavota. Ogwiritsa ntchito 25 adakana.
Source: www.habr.com