Apocalypse yathetsedwa

Choyamba, mawu (aatali kwambiri, koma ofunika kwambiri, omwe ndimagwira mawu achidule):

“Pamene dziko likuloŵa m’nyengo yatsopano, ladzala ndi anthu mofulumirirapo. Chitukuko chofulumira kwambiri chinachitika m'mizinda ikuluikulu monga London, Paris, New York ndi Chicago ... ndi theka la kuwonjezeka kunachitika m'zaka makumi awiri zapitazi. Komabe, pamene anthu ochuluka ameneŵa (limodzi ndi katundu wawo) anasamuka kuchoka kumalo ena kupita ku ena, vuto linabuka. Njira zoyendetsera kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kake , zomwe zikuwopseza chilengedwe komanso thanzi la anthu.

Mukuganiza tikukamba za magalimoto? Palibe chonga ichi. Tikukamba za akavalo... Kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m’ma 200, panali akavalo pafupifupi 17 amene ankagwira ntchito mumzinda wa New York mokha - pafupifupi kavalo mmodzi pa anthu XNUMX alionse.

Matigari okokedwa ndi akavalo ankadzaza m’makwalala, ndipo hatchi ikathyoka mwendo, nthawi zambiri ankaphedwa pomwepo. Izi zinapangitsa kuti achedwenso. Eni mahatchi ambiri anagula inshuwaransi yomwe (kuteteza ku chinyengo) inapereka kupha nyama ndi gulu lina. Izi zinatanthauza kuti mwiniwakeyo anayenera kuyembekezera kuti apolisi, dokotala wa zinyama, kapena ASPCA (American Society Against Cruelty to Animals) afike. Koma ngakhale nyamayo itafa, kusokonekerako sikunathe. “Akavalo akufa anali otopa kwambiri,” analemba motero katswiri wa kasamalidwe ka zinthu Eric Morris. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, osamalira minda yamaluwa nthawi zambiri ankadikirira mpaka mitembo yawola, ndipo kenako ankaicheka n’kuidula mosavuta.

Phokoso la ngolo ndi ziboda zinakwiyitsa kwambiri anthu moti m’mizinda ina ankaletsedwa kukwera mahatchi... Zinali zosavuta kwambiri kugundidwa ndi kavalo kapena ngolo... Mu 1900, anthu 200 a ku New York anamwalira. chifukwa cha ngozi zokhudza akavalo, kapena mmodzi wa anthu 17 zikwi. Mu 2007, New Yorkers 274 adamwalira chifukwa cha ngozi zagalimoto (mmodzi mwa 30). Izi zikutanthauza kuti mu 1900, munthu wa ku New York anali ndi mwayi wofa chifukwa chogundidwa ndi hatchi kuwirikiza kawiri kuposa ngozi ya galimoto lero ...

Mkhalidwe woipa kwambiri unali ndi manyowa. Kavalo wamba amatulutsa pafupifupi ma kilogalamu khumi a manyowa patsiku. Mahatchi 200 sauzande amabala matani oposa zikwi ziwiri. Tsiku lililonse, masiku asanu ndi awiri pa sabata... Manyowa anasefukira m’misewu ya mzindawo ngati chipale chofeŵa. M’chilimwe, kununkhako kunkakwera kumwamba. Pamene nyengo yamvula inafika, mitsinje ya manyowa a akavalo inasefukira m’njira ndi kudzaza zipinda zapansi za nyumba zogonamo... Chimbudzi chomwe chinali m’misewu chinali chovulaza kwambiri thanzi. Zinapereka malo oberekera ntchentche mabiliyoni ambiri zomwe zimafalitsa matenda akupha ambiri. Makoswe adasakaza mapiri a manyowa kuti apeze mbewu za oat osagawika komanso zotsalira za zakudya zina zamahatchi - zomwe, mwa njira, zidali zokwera mtengo kwambiri chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa akavalo komanso kufunika kogwirizanako. Palibe amene ankada nkhawa ndi kutentha kwa dziko panthawiyo, koma zikadachitika, hatchiyo ikanakhala mdani wamkulu wa anthu chifukwa manyowa amatulutsa methane, mpweya wotentha kwambiri.

Zinkawoneka kuti dziko lafika pachimake pamene mizinda sikanakhala ndi akavalo kapena opanda.

Ndipo mwadzidzidzi vutolo linazimiririka. Zimenezi sizinali chifukwa cha zochita za boma kapena kuloŵererapo kwaumulungu. Anthu okhala m’tauni sanali kupanga magulu a magulu a anthu kapena kulimbikitsa kudziletsa, kukana kugwiritsa ntchito mahatchi. Vutoli linathetsedwa pogwiritsa ntchito luso lamakono ... Mahatchi adasowa m'misewu chifukwa cha kubwera kwa tramu yamagetsi ndi galimoto. Njira zonsezi zinasiya zinyalala zochepa kwambiri ndipo zinkagwira ntchito bwino kwambiri. Yotsika mtengo kugula komanso kuyendetsa mosavuta kuposa kavalo, galimotoyo yatamandidwa ngati yopulumutsa chilengedwe. Anthu okhala m'mizinda padziko lonse lapansi adatha kupuma mozama osagwira mphuno ndi zala zawo ndikuyambiranso njira yawo yopita patsogolo.

Nkhaniyi, mwatsoka, simathera pamenepo. Mayankho omwe adapulumutsa dziko lapansi m'zaka za zana la XNUMX adayamba kubweretsa zoopsa m'zaka za zana lotsatira: magalimoto onse ndi ma tramu amagetsi ali ndi zakunja zawo zoyipa. Kutulutsa mpweya wa carbon monoxide kuchokera m'magalimoto opitilira mabiliyoni ndi mafakitole masauzande amagetsi oyaka ndi malasha pazaka XNUMX akutenthetsa mlengalenga wa Dziko Lapansi. Monga momwe zotayira za akavalo panthaŵi ina zinayamba kuwopseza chitukuko, ndimomwemonso zikuchitika chifukwa cha zochita za anthu.

Martin Weitzman, katswiri wa zachuma pa zachilengedwe pa yunivesite ya Harvard, akuyerekezera kuti pali mwayi wa 5 peresenti wakuti kutentha kwa dziko lonse kudzakwera kwambiri moti “kuwononga Dziko Lapansi monga momwe tikudziŵira.” M'magulu ena - mwachitsanzo, m'ma TV, omwe nthawi zambiri amakonda kulankhula za zochitika zina za apocalyptic - malingaliro owopsa amapita patsogolo.

Izi siziyenera kutidabwitsa. Pamene yankho la vuto silili bwino pamaso pathu, timakonda kukhulupirira kuti vutolo lilibe yankho nkomwe. Koma mbiri imatisonyeza nthawi ndi nthawi kuti malingaliro oterowo ndi olakwika.

Anthu ... ali ndi luso lodabwitsa lopeza njira zamakono zothetsera mavuto omwe amawoneka ngati osatheka, ndipo izi zikhoza kuchitika pa nkhani ya kutentha kwa dziko. Mfundo apa sikuti vuto ndi laling'ono kapena lalikulu bwanji. Luntha laumunthu ... likusintha nthawi zonse. Nkhani zolimbikitsa kwambiri ndikuti njira zamakono nthawi zambiri zimakhala zosavuta (... zotsika mtengo) kuposa momwe aneneri a tsoka angaganizire.

...Chodabwitsa n’chakuti, mtengo wa manyowa a akavalo wakweranso, moti eni famu ina ku Massachusetts posachedwapa anatembenukira kupolisi n’kulamula kuti mnzawo wina amene ankatolera manyowa amangidwe m’dera lawo. Malinga ndi nebayo, kusamvetsetsana kumeneku kudachitika chifukwa chakuti mwini famuyo adamulola kutero. Komabe, mwiniwake watsopanoyo sanagwirizane ndi zimenezi ndipo anafuna ndalama zokwana madola 600 pa manyowa otolerawo.

Ndani anakhala mnansi ameneyu - wokonda manyowa? Palibe wina koma a Martin Weizmann, katswiri wazachuma yemwe adaneneratu zowopsa za kutentha kwa dziko.

“Zikomo,” mnzake wina analembera Weizmann nkhaniyo m’nyuzipepala. "Ambiri mwa akatswiri azachuma omwe ndimawadziwa amagulitsa zinthu zopanda pake." Ndipo inu, mwachiwonekere, ndi inu nokha amene mwaitanitsa kunja kwa iwo.”

Steven D. Levitt ndi Stephen J. Dubner "Superfreakonomics" (kalembedwe koyambirira ndi zizindikiro zopumira za womasulira zasungidwa).

Nayi epigraph yolemetsa yochokera kwa katswiri wazachuma pa University of Chicago Steven Levitt.

Apocalypse yathetsedwa. Komabe, monga njira zina zonse za “kutha kwa dziko,” kuyambira ndi kuchulukana kwa anthu ndi kusowa kwa chakudya, ndi kutha ndi kusowa kwa zinthu zachilengedwe kapena madzi akumwa.

Zikuwonekeratu chifukwa chake ma apocalypse achipembedzo akuthetsedwa-madeti awo adakhazikitsidwa nthawi zambiri kotero kuti kulira kotsatira kwa "mmbulu" sikukuvutitsanso aliyense. Panthawiyi, thambo linasiya kukhala thambo, ndipo chifukwa cha "kuphulika kwakukulu" chinakhala chaumulungu. Kukambirana za mutuwu, kwenikweni, ndikoseketsa komanso "kopanda ulemu pang'ono."

Koma ziphunzitso zodziwika za kusowa kwa madzi (ndi "nkhondo zamadzi"), za kutentha kwa dziko (ndi "o, mantha, mantha, aliyense adzapita kumapanga") ndizosangalatsa kwambiri kuzigawa.

Kulakwitsa kwakukulu kwa maulosi onse a sayansi kapena pseudo-scientific apocalyptic ali ndi vuto limodzi lalikulu. Iwo atembenuzidwa.

Panali wasayansi wotero (wabwino ndi wanzeru) - Thomas Malthus. Malingana ndi deta yomwe ali nayo kuchokera ku ZAKA ZAM'mbuyomu, adayika ndondomeko ya FUTURE CENTURIES kuti popeza chiwerengero cha anthu chikuwonjezeka mofulumira kuposa kuchuluka kwa chakudya chopangidwa ndi munthu, ndiye ... zolephera ndi tsoka. (Izi ndizofanana kwambiri ndi "kulakwitsa kwa wopulumuka" pamene deta yosadziwika imanyalanyazidwa ngati kulibe.)

Ngakhale kuti Malthus sanachite china chilichonse m’moyo wake (ndipo anachitadi), tikanayenera kumuyamikira chifukwa cha kulakwa koneneratu kumeneku kokha. Wochenjera (wopanda chisokonezo) Malthus ankakhala pachiyambi cha kusintha kwa mafakitale. Ngakhale, kani, izo zisanayambe. Ndipo sakanatha kudziwiratu za kubwera kwa mathirakitala, kapena feteleza, kapena kuwononga tizilombo, kapena njira zachibadwa zowonjezeretsa kuchuluka kwa chakudya. Pamaso pa Malthus, kwa zaka mazana ambiri ndi zaka zikwizikwi anthu ankalima ndi akavalo ndi feteleza ndi manyowa.

Komabe ... kupita patsogolo kwa sayansi kunali (ndipo) ndipo zolosera za Malthus zinakhala zolakwika, ngakhale kuti maumboni awo akadali otchuka pakati pa "gawo losaphunzira la anthu." Komabe, monga lingaliro lakuti Dzuwa limazungulira dziko lapansi.

Chodabwitsa ndichakuti maulosi onse otsatizanatsa a apocalyptic asayansi, pseudoscientists ndi azachilengedwe amalakwitsa chimodzimodzi. Iwo saganizira vekitala ya chitukuko cha sayansi ndi luso kupita patsogolo.

Zimakhala zovuta kuwaimba mlandu chifukwa cha izi, chifukwa ichi ndi maganizo awo. Koma munthu angaimbidwe mlandu wokwapula chipwirikiti, chofanana kwambiri ndi chipwirikiti chachipembedzo. Ndipo ma hysterics mwachiwonekere sagwirizana ndi asayansi.

Chifukwa chiyani anthu ophunzira, omwe amadziwa za "zolakwika za Malthus" ndipo awona kupita patsogolo kwa sayansi ndi luso lazaka zana zapitazi, ayenera kukwapula? Kodi akatswiri a zachilengedwe amanyansidwa ndi cholinga chotani? Nchiyani chomwe chimayambitsa maulosi awo, kupatulapo nkhani yopezera bajeti ya hysteria yotsatira kapena "malipiro" kuchokera ku makampani?

Choncho. M’zaka za m’ma 20, kutha kwa mchere, kusintha kwa nyengo, ndi kusowa kwa madzi. Maulosi onsewa adawonetsedwa ngati apocalypse.

Chabwino ... ponena za mchere, apocalypse yomwe inakonzedweratu 1970 ... zoloserazo sizinachitikenso. Zonse chifukwa cha "zolakwa zakale" zomwezo zomwe zinali mu mawerengedwe a Malthus. Choyamba, madipoziti atsopano adapezeka ndikupangidwa, njira zatsopano zochotsera zidapangidwa, ndipo zida zopulumutsa mphamvu zidapangidwa. Ndipo lero zikuwonekeratu kuti pali nkhokwe zambiri za mchere kuposa zomwe anthu angafune ... chifukwa amazifuna mochepa. Mababu owunikira amawononga magetsi pang'ono, nyumba ndi mafakitale zikukhala zopatsa mphamvu, ndipo njira zina zopangira mphamvu zikupangidwa mwachangu (dzuwa, mphepo, nyanja, ndi zina). Zinyalalazo zimatumizidwa kuti zibwezeretsedwenso.

Kwenikweni, izi zokha zingakhale zokwanira kuletsa apocalypse yanyengo. Koma izi sizinachitike. Ndipo izi ngakhale kuti nyengo yapadziko lapansi yasintha nthawi zambiri, kutengera momwe dziko lapansi lilili ndi Dzuwa, zochitika za dzuwa, mafunde a m'nyanja, kuyenda kwa mbale za lithospheric, ndi ntchito zamapiri. Zochita za anthu, poyerekeza ndi mphamvu izi, ndizochepa chabe. Munthu, ndithudi, wakhala ndi zotsatira zoipa kwambiri pa chilengedwe m'zaka mazana awiri zapitazi (komabe, zipululu zambiri ku Middle East zinawonekeranso chifukwa cha ntchito zoipa za anthu akale). Komabe ... kusasamala uku kumagwirizanitsidwa ndi gwero la mphamvu, ndipo tsopano zikusintha. Ndipo izi zatchulidwa pamwambapa.

Ndiye chingakhale chanzeru chiyani? Kodi tigwiritse ntchito ndalama pazovuta za asayansi a nyengo ndi akatswiri a zachilengedwe, kapena zingakhale zothandiza kwambiri kupanga magetsi angapo a dzuwa kapena mphepo ndi ndalama izi, kupereka ndalama zothandizira kusintha kwa mafakitale ndi anthu kuchokera ku injini zoyaka moto zamkati kupita kumagetsi amagetsi ndi magalimoto amagetsi? Komabe, ndiye kuti "chilengedwe chachilengedwe" sichidzapeza ndalama.

Mapeto. Sachita chidwi ndi nyengo konse. Iwo ali ndi chidwi ndi ndalama.

Choncho, mwachitsanzo, Elon Musk akuchita zambiri kuti achepetse kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe kuchokera ku zochitika zaumunthu kusiyana ndi onse okonda zachilengedwe pamodzi ndi hysterics omwe adagwirizana nawo.

Mafashoni apocalypse apocalypse ndi am'madzi. Ndipo sizichitikanso. Ndipo chifukwa chake ndi chimodzimodzi. Kupanga, kukhala koyera chifukwa kumapindulitsa kwambiri, kudzawononga madzi pang'ono, mphamvu idzachokera kumalo oyera, malo opangira mankhwala adzakhala amakono, njira zamakono zopulumutsira madzi zidzapangidwa (chifukwa ndizopindulitsa), makina apadera adzaikidwa m'madera ouma. zomwe zimapanga madzi akumwa kuchokera mumlengalenga, m'madera a m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zina zotero. Kuchotsa mchere ndi kuyeretsedwa ndi reverse osmosis, etc. kudzagwiritsidwa ntchito m'madera ... ndipo apocalypse sichidzachitikanso.

Mapeto. Ngati simukupeza hysterical, koma ganizirani ndikuthetsa vutoli, ndiye kuti padzakhala mphamvu zokwanira, madzi, chakudya, nthaka, komanso zonse kwa aliyense. Ndipo padzakhalabe zina. Ndipo chilengedwe chidzakhalanso choyera. Kawirikawiri, "zonse zikhala bwino."

Kwa aliyense amene amawerenga mpaka kumapeto - "Zikomo kwambiri."

Mafanizo: Akrolesta.

PS Okondedwa owerenga, ndikufunsani kuti mukumbukire kuti "Mawonekedwe a polemic ndi ofunika kwambiri kuposa nkhani ya polemic. Zinthu zimasintha, koma masitayilo amapangitsa kuti chitukuko chikhale chitukuko. (Grigory Pomerantz). Ngati sindinayankhe ndemanga yanu, ndiye kuti pali cholakwika ndi kalembedwe kanu.

PS 2. Ndikupepesa kwa aliyense amene analemba ndemanga yomveka, koma sindinayankhe. Ngati mukufunabe kupeza yankho ndikukambirana nkhaniyi, mutha kundilembera uthenga wachinsinsi. Ndimawayankha.

PS 3. Sindinganenenso za mkangano wonena za "kuphatikiza zitsanzo" ngati zongopeka, chifukwa m'nkhani yayikulu kale zitsanzo zingapo zowonjezera sizingakhutiritse otsutsa omwe amadalira mkangano wa "umodzi", monga momwe sanakhudzire. ndi kuchuluka kwa zitsanzo zomwe zili m'nkhaniyi "Monga zolakwika"kapena zitsanzo zambiri zomwe zaperekedwa m'bukuli sizingakhutiritseEconomics ndi ufulu wa anthu"(tsatirani ulalo - chidule chachidule ndi mtundu wamagetsi kuti mutsitse), ngakhale kumbuyo kwa izi zingapo pali mazana ndi masauzande a zitsanzo kuchokera ku ntchito za akatswiri azachuma otchuka omwe atchulidwa m'bukuli.

PS 4. Chonde kambiranani ndi Steven Levitt zotsutsana naye payekha, osati ndi wolemba nkhaniyo. Zambiri zolumikizirana zimapezeka patsamba la University of Chicago. Amaperekanso mikangano yambiri mokomera malingaliro ake m'buku lodziwika bwino la sayansi "Superfreakonomics".

Source: www.habr.com