Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe

Nthawi zina, kuti muthe kuthetsa vuto, muyenera kungoyang'ana mbali ina. Ngakhale pazaka zapitazi za 10 zovuta zofananazo zathetsedwa mofanana ndi zotsatira zosiyana, sizowona kuti njira iyi ndi imodzi yokha.

Pali mutu ngati kasitomala churn. Chinthucho ndi chosapeŵeka, chifukwa makasitomala a kampani iliyonse akhoza, pazifukwa zambiri, kusiya kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala kapena ntchito zake. Zachidziwikire, kwa kampani, churn ndi yachilengedwe, koma sichofunikira kwambiri, kotero aliyense amayesa kuchepetsa kuchulukiraku. Kupitilira apo, neneratu za kuthekera kwa kuchulukira kwa gulu linalake la ogwiritsa ntchito, kapena wogwiritsa ntchito, ndikuwonetsa njira zina zowasunga.

M'pofunika kusanthula ndi kuyesa kusunga kasitomala, ngati n'kotheka, pazifukwa zotsatirazi:

  • kukopa makasitomala atsopano ndi okwera mtengo kuposa njira zosungira. Kuti mukope makasitomala atsopano, monga lamulo, muyenera kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama (zotsatsa), pamene makasitomala omwe alipo akhoza kutsegulidwa ndi kupereka kwapadera ndi zinthu zapadera;
  • Kumvetsetsa zifukwa zomwe makasitomala amasiya ndiye chinsinsi chowongolera zinthu ndi ntchito.

Pali njira zingapo zodziwira churn. Koma pa imodzi mwampikisano wa AI, tidaganiza zoyesa kugawa kwa Weibull pa izi. Amagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zambiri pakuwunika kupulumuka, kulosera zanyengo, kusanthula masoka achilengedwe, uinjiniya wamafakitale ndi zina zotero. Kugawa kwa Weibull ndi ntchito yapadera yogawa yomwe ili ndi magawo awiri Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe и Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe.

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe
Wikipedia

Kawirikawiri, ndi chinthu chochititsa chidwi, koma kuwonetseratu kutuluka, komanso mu fintech kawirikawiri, sikugwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zambiri. Pansi pa odulidwawo tidzakuuzani momwe ife (Data Mining Laboratory) tinachitira izi, nthawi imodzi ndikugonjetsa golide pa Artificial Intelligence Championship mu gulu la "AI mu Banks".

About churn ambiri

Tiyeni timvetsetse pang'ono zomwe kasitomala churn ndi chifukwa chake ndi yofunika kwambiri. Makasitomala ndiofunikira kubizinesi. Makasitomala atsopano amabwera pamalowa, mwachitsanzo, ataphunzira za chinthu kapena ntchito kuchokera ku malonda, amakhala kwakanthawi (gwiritsani ntchito zinthuzo mwachangu) ndipo pakapita nthawi asiye kuzigwiritsa ntchito. Nthawi imeneyi imatchedwa "Customer Lifecycle" - mawu omwe amafotokoza magawo omwe kasitomala amadutsa akaphunzira za chinthu, kupanga chisankho chogula, kulipira, kugwiritsa ntchito ndikukhala wogula wokhulupirika, ndipo pamapeto pake amasiya kugwiritsa ntchito malondawo. pazifukwa zina. Chifukwa chake, churn ndi gawo lomaliza la moyo wa kasitomala, pamene kasitomala amasiya kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito, ndipo kwa bizinesi izi zikutanthauza kuti kasitomala wasiya kubweretsa phindu kapena phindu lililonse.

Makasitomala akubanki aliyense ndi munthu amene amasankha khadi lakubanki limodzi kapena lina kuti akwaniritse zosowa zake. Ngati mumayenda pafupipafupi, khadi yokhala ndi mailosi idzakuthandizani. Amagula zambiri - moni, khadi yobweza ndalama. Amagula zambiri m'masitolo apadera - ndipo pali kale pulasitiki wapadera wothandizira izi. Inde, nthawi zina khadi limasankhidwa potengera "ntchito yotsika mtengo kwambiri". Kawirikawiri, pali zosiyana zokwanira pano.

Ndipo munthu amasankhanso banki yokha - ndi chiyani chosankha khadi kuchokera ku banki yomwe nthambi zake zili ku Moscow ndi dera, pamene mukuchokera ku Khabarovsk? Ngakhale khadi lochokera ku banki yotere ndilopindulitsa kwambiri 2 nthawi, kukhalapo kwa nthambi za banki pafupi ndizomwe zimakhala zofunikira kwambiri. Inde, 2019 yafika kale ndipo digito ndi chilichonse chathu, koma nkhani zingapo ndi mabanki ena zitha kuthetsedwa munthambi. Kuphatikiza apo, gawo lina la anthu limakhulupirira banki yakuthupi kuposa kugwiritsa ntchito foni yamakono, izi ziyeneranso kuganiziridwa.

Zotsatira zake, munthu akhoza kukhala ndi zifukwa zambiri zokanira zinthu zakubanki (kapena banki yokha). Ndinasintha ntchito, ndipo mtengo wa khadi unasintha kuchoka ku malipiro kupita ku "Kwa anthu wamba," zomwe zimakhala zopindulitsa kwambiri. Ndinasamukira mumzinda wina kumene kulibe nthambi za mabanki. Sindinakonde kuyanjana ndi wogwira ntchito wosayenerera panthambi. Ndiye kuti, pakhoza kukhala zifukwa zambiri zotsekera akaunti kuposa kugwiritsa ntchito malonda.

Ndipo kasitomala sangathe kufotokoza momveka bwino cholinga chake - kubwera kubanki ndikulemba mawu, koma kungosiya kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala popanda kuthetsa mgwirizano. Anaganiza zogwiritsa ntchito kuphunzira pamakina ndi AI kuti amvetsetse zovuta zotere.

Kuphatikiza apo, kusintha kwamakasitomala kumatha kuchitika m'makampani aliwonse (telecom, opereka intaneti, makampani a inshuwaransi, nthawi zonse, kulikonse komwe kuli makasitomala ndi zochitika zanthawi zonse).

Tachita chiyani

Choyamba, kunali koyenera kufotokoza malire omveka bwino - kuyambira nthawi yomwe timayamba kuganizira kuti kasitomala asiya. Kuchokera kumalingaliro a banki yomwe idatipatsa chidziwitso cha ntchito yathu, momwe kasitomala amagwirira ntchito anali wachiphamaso - ali wokangalika kapena ayi. Panali mbendera ya ACTIVE_FLAG patebulo la "Zochita", mtengo wake ukhoza kukhala "0" kapena "1" ("Inactive" ndi "Active" motsatana). Ndipo zonse zikhala bwino, koma munthu ndi woti amatha kuzigwiritsa ntchito kwa nthawi yayitali, kenako ndikutuluka pamndandanda wokangalika kwa mwezi umodzi - adadwala, adapita kutchuthi kudziko lina, kapena kupita kukayezetsa. khadi lochokera ku banki ina. Kapena mwinamwake patapita nthawi yaitali osagwira ntchito, yambani kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito za banki kachiwiri

Chifukwa chake, tidaganiza zotcha nthawi yosagwira ntchito nthawi ina yopitilira pomwe mbendera yake idakhazikitsidwa kukhala "0".

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe

Makasitomala amachoka kufooka kupita kukakhala wotanganidwa pakapita nthawi zosagwira ntchito zautali wosiyanasiyana. Tili ndi mwayi wowerengera kuchuluka kwa mtengo wamtengo wapatali "kudalirika kwa nthawi zosagwira ntchito" - ndiko kuti, mwayi woti munthu ayambenso kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu za banki pambuyo pa kusagwira ntchito kwakanthawi.

Mwachitsanzo, chithunzichi chikusonyeza kuyambiranso kwa ntchito (ACTIVE_FLAG=1) yamakasitomala patatha miyezi ingapo osachita chilichonse (ACTIVE_FLAG=0).

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe

Apa tikufotokozerani pang'ono ma data omwe tidayamba nawo kugwira ntchito. Chifukwa chake, banki idapereka zidziwitso zophatikizidwa kwa miyezi 19 pamatebulo otsatirawa:

  • "Zochita" - zochitika zamakasitomala pamwezi (ndi makadi, kubanki yapaintaneti ndi kubanki yam'manja), kuphatikiza malipiro ndi chidziwitso chazotuluka.
  • "Makhadi" - zambiri za makhadi onse omwe kasitomala ali nawo, okhala ndi ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali.
  • "Mapangano" - zambiri za mapangano a kasitomala (onse otseguka ndi otsekedwa): ngongole, madipoziti, etc., kusonyeza magawo a aliyense.
  • "Makasitomala" - kuchuluka kwa anthu (jenda ndi zaka) komanso kupezeka kwa zidziwitso.

Kuti tigwire ntchito timafunikira matebulo onse kupatula "Mapu".

Panali vuto lina apa - mu deta iyi banki sanasonyeze mtundu wa ntchito zomwe zinachitika pa makhadi. Ndiko kuti, titha kumvetsetsa ngati panali zochitika kapena ayi, koma sitinathenso kudziwa mtundu wawo. Choncho, sizinali zodziwikiratu ngati kasitomala akuchotsa ndalama, kulandira malipiro, kapena kuwononga ndalamazo pogula. Tidalibenso zambiri zamabanki muakaunti, zomwe zikanakhala zothandiza.

Chitsanzo chokhacho chinali chopanda tsankho - mu chitsanzo ichi, pa miyezi 19, banki sinayesetse kusunga makasitomala ndikuchepetsa kutuluka.

Choncho, za nthawi zosagwira ntchito.

Kuti mupange tanthauzo la churn, nthawi yosagwira ntchito iyenera kusankhidwa. Kupanga chiwonetsero cha churn panthawi yake Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe, muyenera kukhala ndi mbiri yamakasitomala osachepera miyezi itatu pakapita nthawi Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe. Mbiri yathu inali ya miyezi 19 yokha, choncho tinaganiza zokhala osagwira ntchito kwa miyezi 6, ngati ilipo. Ndipo kwanthawi yochepa ya kulosera kwapamwamba, tidatenga miyezi itatu. Tinatenga ziwerengero kwa miyezi 3 ndi 3 mozama kutengera kusanthula kwa machitidwe a kasitomala.

Tinapanga tanthauzo la churn motere: mwezi wa kasitomala churn Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe uno ndi mwezi woyamba wokhala ndi ACTIVE_FLAG=0, pomwe kuyambira mwezi uno pali ziro zosachepera zisanu ndi chimodzi zotsatizana mugawo la ACTIVE_FLAG, mwa kuyankhula kwina, mwezi womwe kasitomala sanagwire ntchito kwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi.

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe
Chiwerengero chamakasitomala omwe adachoka

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe
Nambala yamakasitomala otsala

Kodi churn imawerengedwa bwanji?

M'mipikisano yotereyi, komanso pochita zambiri, kutuluka kunja nthawi zambiri kumanenedweratu motere. Makasitomala amagwiritsa ntchito zinthu ndi ntchito nthawi zosiyanasiyana, zomwe zimagwirizana ndi iye zimayimiridwa ngati vekitala ya mawonekedwe a kutalika kokhazikika n. Nthawi zambiri chidziwitsochi chimaphatikizapo:

  • Deta yodziwika ndi ogwiritsa ntchito (chiwerengero cha anthu, gawo la malonda).
  • Mbiri yakugwiritsa ntchito zinthu zamabanki ndi ntchito (izi ndizochitika zamakasitomala zomwe nthawi zonse zimalumikizidwa ndi nthawi kapena nthawi yanthawi yomwe tikufuna).
  • Deta yakunja, ngati kunali kotheka kuipeza - mwachitsanzo, ndemanga zochokera pamasamba ochezera.

Ndipo pambuyo pake, amapeza tanthauzo la churn, losiyana pa ntchito iliyonse. Kenako amagwiritsa ntchito makina ophunzirira makina, omwe amalosera mwayi woti kasitomala angachoke Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe kutengera vekitala ya zinthu Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe. Kuphunzitsa ma aligorivimu, imodzi mwamadongosolo odziwika bwino opangira ma ensembles amitengo yosankha imagwiritsidwa ntchito, XGBoost, Mtengo wa GBM, Zithunzi za CatBoost kapena zosintha zake.

Algorithm yokhayo siyoyipa, koma ili ndi zovuta zingapo zikafika pakulosera churn.

  • Alibe zomwe zimatchedwa "memory". Kulowetsa kwachitsanzo ndi chiwerengero chodziwika cha zinthu zomwe zimagwirizana ndi nthawi yamakono. Pofuna kusunga zambiri zokhudza mbiri ya kusintha kwa magawo, m'pofunika kuwerengera zinthu zapadera zomwe zimasonyeza kusintha kwa magawo pakapita nthawi, mwachitsanzo, chiwerengero kapena kuchuluka kwa ndalama za banki pa miyezi 1,2,3, XNUMX, XNUMX. Njirayi ingawonetsere pang'ono za kusintha kwakanthawi.
  • Zolosera zokhazikika. Mtunduwu umatha kulosera zakusintha kwamakasitomala kwanthawi yodziwikiratu, mwachitsanzo, zoneneratu mwezi umodzi pasadakhale. Ngati kulosera kumafunika kwa nthawi yosiyana, mwachitsanzo, miyezi itatu, ndiye kuti muyenera kumanganso maphunzirowo ndikubwezeretsanso chitsanzo chatsopano.

Njira yathu

Tidaganiza nthawi yomweyo kuti sitigwiritsa ntchito njira zofananira. Kuwonjezera pa ife, anthu enanso 497 analembetsa nawo mpikisano, aliyense wa iwo anali ndi chidziwitso chambiri pambuyo pawo. Choncho kuyesa kuchita chinachake motsatira ndondomeko yanthawi zonse m’mikhalidwe yotero sikuli bwino.

Ndipo tinayamba kuthetsa mavuto omwe amakumana ndi mtundu wamagulu a binary poneneratu za kugawa kwanthawi kwamakasitomala. Njira yofananayo ingawonekere apa, kumakupatsani mwayi wodziwiratu churn mosinthika ndikuyesa malingaliro ovuta kwambiri kuposa momwe mumayendera. Monga banja la magawo omwe akuwonetsera nthawi yotuluka, tinasankha kugawa Weibull chifukwa chogwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pofufuza zamoyo. Khalidwe la kasitomala likhoza kuwonedwa ngati mtundu wa kupulumuka.

Nazi zitsanzo za magawo a Weibull probability density kutengera magawo Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe и Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe:

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe

Uku ndiye kuchuluka kwamakasitomala amakasitomala atatu osiyanasiyana pakapita nthawi. Nthawi imaperekedwa m'miyezi. M'mawu ena, chithunzichi chikuwonetsa nthawi yomwe kasitomala angayambe kugwedezeka m'miyezi iwiri ikubwerayi. Monga mukuwonera, kasitomala yemwe ali ndi gawo ali ndi kuthekera kwakukulu konyamuka kuposa makasitomala omwe ali ndi Weibull(2, 0.5) ndi Weibull (3,1) magawo.

Zotsatira zake ndi chitsanzo chomwe, kwa kasitomala aliyense, kwa aliyense
mwezi amalosera magawo a kugawa kwa Weibull, zomwe zimawonetsa bwino kupezeka kwa kuthekera kwa kutuluka kwa nthawi. Mwatsatanetsatane:

  • Zomwe tikuyembekezera pamaphunzirowa ndi nthawi yomwe yatsala kuti ifike mwezi umodzi kwa kasitomala wina.
  • Ngati palibe chiwongola dzanja cha kasitomala, timaganiza kuti nthawi yosinthira ndi yayikulu kuposa kuchuluka kwa miyezi kuyambira mwezi wapano mpaka kumapeto kwa mbiri yomwe tili nayo.
  • Chitsanzo chogwiritsidwa ntchito: neural network yokhazikika yokhala ndi LSTM layer.
  • Monga ntchito yotayika, timagwiritsa ntchito zolakwika za log-likelibility pakugawa kwa Weibull.

Nazi ubwino wa njirayi:

  • Kugawa zotheka, kuphatikizapo kuthekera koonekeratu kwa magulu a binary, kumalola kulosera kosinthika kwa zochitika zosiyanasiyana, mwachitsanzo, ngati kasitomala adzasiya kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito za banki mkati mwa miyezi 3. Komanso, ngati kuli kofunikira, ma metric osiyanasiyana amatha kugawidwa pagawoli.
  • LSTM recurrent neural network ili ndi kukumbukira ndipo imagwiritsa ntchito bwino mbiri yonse yomwe ilipo. Pamene nkhaniyo ikukulitsidwa kapena kukonzedwa, kulondola kumawonjezeka.
  • Njirayi imatha kukulitsidwa mosavuta pogawa nthawi kukhala zazing'ono (mwachitsanzo, pogawa miyezi kukhala masabata).

Koma sikokwanira kupanga chitsanzo chabwino; muyeneranso kuunika bwino mtundu wake.

Kodi ubwino unayesedwa bwanji?

Tinasankha Lift Curve ngati metric. Amagwiritsidwa ntchito mu bizinesi pamilandu yotere chifukwa cha kutanthauzira kwake momveka bwino, kumafotokozedwa bwino apa и apa. Ngati mungafotokoze tanthauzo la metric iyi m'chiganizo chimodzi, zitha kukhala "kodi ndi kangati ma aligorivimu amalosera bwino m'mawu oyamba? Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe% kuposa mwachisawawa."

Zitsanzo zophunzitsira

Mikhalidwe ya mpikisano sinakhazikitse ma metric apamwamba omwe mitundu yosiyanasiyana ndi njira zitha kufananizidwa. Kuphatikiza apo, tanthauzo la churn litha kukhala losiyana ndipo lingadalire mawu amavuto, omwe, nawonso, amatsimikiziridwa ndi zolinga zabizinesi. Chifukwa chake, kuti timvetsetse njira yabwinoko, tidaphunzitsa mitundu iwiri:

  1. Njira yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pamagulu a binary pogwiritsa ntchito njira yophunzirira makina amtundu wa ensemble (Mtengo wa GBM);
  2. Chithunzi cha Weibull-LSTM

Mayeserowa anali ndi makasitomala 500 omwe adasankhidwa kale omwe sanali m'gulu la maphunziro. Ma Hyper-parameters adasankhidwa kuti apange chitsanzo pogwiritsa ntchito kutsimikiziridwa kwa mtanda, wosweka ndi kasitomala. Magawo omwewo adagwiritsidwa ntchito pophunzitsa mtundu uliwonse.

Chifukwa chakuti chitsanzocho chilibe kukumbukira, zida zapadera zinatengedwa kwa izo, kusonyeza chiŵerengero cha kusintha kwa magawo kwa mwezi umodzi ku mtengo wapakati wa magawo m'miyezi itatu yapitayi. Zomwe zimadziwika ndi kuchuluka kwa kusintha kwamitengo m'miyezi itatu yomaliza. Popanda izi, mtundu wa Random Forest ungakhale wopanda mwayi wachibale wa Weibull-LSTM.

Chifukwa chiyani LSTM yokhala ndi kugawa kwa Weibull ndiyabwino kuposa njira yamtengo wosankha

Chilichonse chikuwonekera bwino apa muzithunzi zingapo.

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe
Kuyerekeza kwa Lift Curve kwa classical algorithm ndi Weibull-LSTM

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe
Kuyerekeza kwa metric ya Lift Curve mwezi ndi mwezi kwa classical algorithm ndi Weibull-LSTM

Nthawi zambiri, LSTM ndi yapamwamba kuposa yachikalekale ya algorithm pafupifupi nthawi zonse.

Kusintha kulosera

Chitsanzo chotengera neural network yokhazikika yokhala ndi ma cell a LSTM okhala ndi Weibull yogawa imatha kuneneratu zachurn pasadakhale, mwachitsanzo, kulosera zakusintha kwamakasitomala m'miyezi yotsatira ya n. Ganizirani za n = 3. Pankhaniyi, mwezi uliwonse, neural network iyenera kudziwa molondola ngati kasitomala achoka, kuyambira mwezi wotsatira mpaka mwezi wa nth. Mwanjira ina, iyenera kudziwa molondola ngati kasitomala atsalira pakadutsa miyezi n. Izi zitha kuonedwa ngati zoneneratu pasadakhale: kulosera nthawi yomwe kasitomala atangoyamba kuganiza zochoka.

Tiyeni tifanizire Lift Curve ya Weibull-LSTM 1, 2 ndi 3 miyezi isanatuluke:

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe

Talemba kale pamwambapa kuti zoneneratu zomwe zimapangidwira makasitomala omwe sakugwiranso ntchito kwa nthawi yayitali ndizofunikanso. Chifukwa chake, apa tiwonjeza pazitsanzo ngati kasitomala wochokayo sanagwire ntchito kwa mwezi umodzi kapena iwiri, ndikuwonetsetsa kuti Weibull-LSTM imayika molondola milandu ngati churn. Popeza milandu yotereyi inalipo pachitsanzo, tikuyembekeza kuti netiweki izizigwira bwino:

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe

Kusungidwa kwamakasitomala

Kwenikweni, ichi ndiye chinthu chachikulu chomwe chingachitike, kukhala ndi chidziwitso m'manja kuti makasitomala otere akukonzekera kusiya kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwalawa. Ponena za kumanga chitsanzo chomwe chingapereke chinthu chothandiza kwa makasitomala kuti awasunge, izi sizingatheke ngati mulibe mbiri yoyesera yofanana yomwe idzatha bwino.

Tinalibe nkhani yoteroyo, choncho tinaganiza motere.

  1. Tikupanga chitsanzo chomwe chimazindikiritsa zinthu zosangalatsa kwa kasitomala aliyense.
  2. Mwezi uliwonse timayendetsa gulu ndikuzindikira makasitomala omwe angathe kusiya.
  3. Timapereka makasitomala ena malonda, molingana ndi chitsanzo kuchokera pa mfundo 1, ndipo kumbukirani zochita zathu.
  4. Pambuyo pa miyezi ingapo, tikuwona kuti ndi ati mwa awa omwe atha kusiya makasitomala omwe adatsala ndi omwe adatsalira. Choncho, timapanga chitsanzo cha maphunziro.
  5. Timaphunzitsa chitsanzocho pogwiritsa ntchito mbiri yomwe yapezeka mu sitepe 4.
  6. Mwachidziwitso, timabwereza ndondomekoyi, ndikuchotsa chitsanzo kuchokera pa sitepe 1 ndi chitsanzo chomwe chinapezedwa mu sitepe 5.

Kuyesa kwamtundu wa kusungidwa kotereku kutha kuchitika poyesa A/B pafupipafupi - timagawa makasitomala omwe atha kuchoka m'magulu awiri. Timapereka zinthu kwa wina kutengera mtundu wathu wosungira, ndipo kwa winayo sitipereka chilichonse. Tinaganiza zophunzitsa chitsanzo chomwe chingakhale chothandiza kale pa mfundo 1 ya chitsanzo chathu.

Tinkafuna kuti gawolo limasuliridwe momwe tingathere. Kuti tichite izi, tinasankha zinthu zingapo zomwe zingatanthauzidwe mosavuta: chiwerengero chonse cha zochitika, malipiro, ndalama zonse za akaunti, zaka, jenda. Zomwe zili pa tebulo la "Mapu" sizinaganiziridwe ngati zopanda chidziwitso, ndipo zomwe zili mu tebulo 3 "Makontrakitala" sizinaganiziridwe chifukwa cha zovuta zowonongeka pofuna kupewa kutayika kwa deta pakati pa ndondomeko yovomerezeka ndi maphunziro.

Kuphatikizika kunachitika pogwiritsa ntchito mitundu yosakanikirana ya Gaussian. Dongosolo lachidziwitso la Akaike lidatilola kudziwa 2 optima. Kukwanira koyamba kumafanana ndi gulu limodzi. Yachiwiri yabwino, yocheperako, imafanana ndi masango 1. Kutengera chotsatirachi, titha kunena izi: ndizovuta kwambiri kugawa deta m'magulu popanda chidziwitso choperekedwa ndi priori. Kuti muphatikize bwino, mufunika data yomwe imafotokozera kasitomala aliyense mwatsatanetsatane.

Chifukwa chake, vuto la maphunziro oyang'aniridwa lidaganiziridwa kuti apatse kasitomala aliyense chinthu chosiyana. Zogulitsa zotsatirazi zidaganiziridwa: "Term deposit", "Credit card", "Overdraft", "Consumer loan", "Car loan", "Mortgage".

Detayo idaphatikizanso mtundu wina wazinthu: "Akaunti Yamakono". Koma sitinachiganizire chifukwa chochepa kwambiri. Kwa ogwiritsa ntchito omwe ali makasitomala a banki, i.e. sanasiye kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala ake, chitsanzo chinamangidwa kuti chidziwike kuti ndi mankhwala ati omwe angakhale nawo chidwi. Kubwereranso kwadongosolo kunasankhidwa kukhala chitsanzo, ndipo mtengo wa Lift wa ma percentiles 10 oyambirira unagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati metric yoyesa khalidwe.

Ubwino wa chitsanzo ukhoza kuyesedwa mu chithunzi.

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe
Zotsatira zamawonekedwe opangira makasitomala

Zotsatira

Njirayi idatibweretsera malo oyamba mu gulu la "AI in Banks" pa mpikisano wa RAIF-Challenge 2017 AI.

Momwe tidaneneratu kuti titha kuyandikira ngati tsoka lachilengedwe

Mwachiwonekere, chinthu chachikulu chinali kuyandikira vutoli kuchokera kumbali yosagwirizana ndi kugwiritsa ntchito njira yomwe nthawi zambiri imagwiritsidwa ntchito pazinthu zina.

Ngakhale kutuluka kwakukulu kwa ogwiritsa ntchito kungakhale tsoka lachilengedwe la ntchito.

Njirayi ikhoza kuganiziridwa kudera lina lililonse komwe kuli kofunikira kuganizira kutuluka, osati mabanki okha. Mwachitsanzo, tinagwiritsa ntchito kuwerengera zotuluka zathu - mu nthambi za Siberia ndi St. Petersburg za Rostelecom.

"Data Mining Laboratory" kampani "Search portal "Sputnik"

Source: www.habr.com

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