Pali njira zingapo zodziwira churn. Koma pa imodzi mwampikisano wa AI, tidaganiza zoyesa kugawa kwa Weibull pa izi. Amagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zambiri pakuwunika kupulumuka, kulosera zanyengo, kusanthula masoka achilengedwe, uinjiniya wamafakitale ndi zina zotero. Kugawa kwa Weibull ndi ntchito yapadera yogawa yomwe ili ndi magawo awiri и .
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Kawirikawiri, ndi chinthu chochititsa chidwi, koma kuwonetseratu kutuluka, komanso mu fintech kawirikawiri, sikugwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zambiri. Pansi pa odulidwawo tidzakuuzani momwe ife (Data Mining Laboratory) tinachitira izi, nthawi imodzi ndikugonjetsa golide pa Artificial Intelligence Championship mu gulu la "AI mu Banks".
Ndipo munthu amasankhanso banki yokha - ndi chiyani chosankha khadi kuchokera ku banki yomwe nthambi zake zili ku Moscow ndi dera, pamene mukuchokera ku Khabarovsk? Ngakhale khadi lochokera ku banki yotere ndilopindulitsa kwambiri 2 nthawi, kukhalapo kwa nthambi za banki pafupi ndizomwe zimakhala zofunikira kwambiri. Inde, 2019 yafika kale ndipo digito ndi chilichonse chathu, koma nkhani zingapo ndi mabanki ena zitha kuthetsedwa munthambi. Kuphatikiza apo, gawo lina la anthu limakhulupirira banki yakuthupi kuposa kugwiritsa ntchito foni yamakono, izi ziyeneranso kuganiziridwa.
Zotsatira zake, munthu akhoza kukhala ndi zifukwa zambiri zokanira zinthu zakubanki (kapena banki yokha). Ndinasintha ntchito, ndipo mtengo wa khadi unasintha kuchoka ku malipiro kupita ku "Kwa anthu wamba," zomwe zimakhala zopindulitsa kwambiri. Ndinasamukira mumzinda wina kumene kulibe nthambi za mabanki. Sindinakonde kuyanjana ndi wogwira ntchito wosayenerera panthambi. Ndiye kuti, pakhoza kukhala zifukwa zambiri zotsekera akaunti kuposa kugwiritsa ntchito malonda.
Ndipo kasitomala sangathe kufotokoza momveka bwino cholinga chake - kubwera kubanki ndikulemba mawu, koma kungosiya kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala popanda kuthetsa mgwirizano. Anaganiza zogwiritsa ntchito kuphunzira pamakina ndi AI kuti amvetsetse zovuta zotere.
Apa tikufotokozerani pang'ono ma data omwe tidayamba nawo kugwira ntchito. Chifukwa chake, banki idapereka zidziwitso zophatikizidwa kwa miyezi 19 pamatebulo otsatirawa:
"Zochita" - zochitika zamakasitomala pamwezi (ndi makadi, kubanki yapaintaneti ndi kubanki yam'manja), kuphatikiza malipiro ndi chidziwitso chazotuluka.
"Makhadi" - zambiri za makhadi onse omwe kasitomala ali nawo, okhala ndi ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali.
"Mapangano" - zambiri za mapangano a kasitomala (onse otseguka ndi otsekedwa): ngongole, madipoziti, etc., kusonyeza magawo a aliyense.
"Makasitomala" - kuchuluka kwa anthu (jenda ndi zaka) komanso kupezeka kwa zidziwitso.
Panali vuto lina apa - mu deta iyi banki sanasonyeze mtundu wa ntchito zomwe zinachitika pa makhadi. Ndiko kuti, titha kumvetsetsa ngati panali zochitika kapena ayi, koma sitinathenso kudziwa mtundu wawo. Choncho, sizinali zodziwikiratu ngati kasitomala akuchotsa ndalama, kulandira malipiro, kapena kuwononga ndalamazo pogula. Tidalibenso zambiri zamabanki muakaunti, zomwe zikanakhala zothandiza.
Chitsanzo chokhacho chinali chopanda tsankho - mu chitsanzo ichi, pa miyezi 19, banki sinayesetse kusunga makasitomala ndikuchepetsa kutuluka.
Choncho, za nthawi zosagwira ntchito.
Kuti mupange tanthauzo la churn, nthawi yosagwira ntchito iyenera kusankhidwa. Kupanga chiwonetsero cha churn panthawi yake , muyenera kukhala ndi mbiri yamakasitomala osachepera miyezi itatu pakapita nthawi . Mbiri yathu inali ya miyezi 19 yokha, choncho tinaganiza zokhala osagwira ntchito kwa miyezi 6, ngati ilipo. Ndipo kwanthawi yochepa ya kulosera kwapamwamba, tidatenga miyezi itatu. Tinatenga ziwerengero kwa miyezi 3 ndi 3 mozama kutengera kusanthula kwa machitidwe a kasitomala.
Tinapanga tanthauzo la churn motere: mwezi wa kasitomala churn uno ndi mwezi woyamba wokhala ndi ACTIVE_FLAG=0, pomwe kuyambira mwezi uno pali ziro zosachepera zisanu ndi chimodzi zotsatizana mugawo la ACTIVE_FLAG, mwa kuyankhula kwina, mwezi womwe kasitomala sanagwire ntchito kwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi.
Chiwerengero chamakasitomala omwe adachoka
Nambala yamakasitomala otsala
Kodi churn imawerengedwa bwanji?
M'mipikisano yotereyi, komanso pochita zambiri, kutuluka kunja nthawi zambiri kumanenedweratu motere. Makasitomala amagwiritsa ntchito zinthu ndi ntchito nthawi zosiyanasiyana, zomwe zimagwirizana ndi iye zimayimiridwa ngati vekitala ya mawonekedwe a kutalika kokhazikika n. Nthawi zambiri chidziwitsochi chimaphatikizapo:
Deta yodziwika ndi ogwiritsa ntchito (chiwerengero cha anthu, gawo la malonda).
Ndipo pambuyo pake, amapeza tanthauzo la churn, losiyana pa ntchito iliyonse. Kenako amagwiritsa ntchito makina ophunzirira makina, omwe amalosera mwayi woti kasitomala angachoke kutengera vekitala ya zinthu . Kuphunzitsa ma aligorivimu, imodzi mwamadongosolo odziwika bwino opangira ma ensembles amitengo yosankha imagwiritsidwa ntchito, XGBoost, Mtengo wa GBM, Zithunzi za CatBoost kapena zosintha zake.
Algorithm yokhayo siyoyipa, koma ili ndi zovuta zingapo zikafika pakulosera churn.
Alibe zomwe zimatchedwa "memory". Kulowetsa kwachitsanzo ndi chiwerengero chodziwika cha zinthu zomwe zimagwirizana ndi nthawi yamakono. Pofuna kusunga zambiri zokhudza mbiri ya kusintha kwa magawo, m'pofunika kuwerengera zinthu zapadera zomwe zimasonyeza kusintha kwa magawo pakapita nthawi, mwachitsanzo, chiwerengero kapena kuchuluka kwa ndalama za banki pa miyezi 1,2,3, XNUMX, XNUMX. Njirayi ingawonetsere pang'ono za kusintha kwakanthawi.
Ndipo tinayamba kuthetsa mavuto omwe amakumana ndi mtundu wamagulu a binary poneneratu za kugawa kwanthawi kwamakasitomala. Njira yofananayo ingawonekere apa, kumakupatsani mwayi wodziwiratu churn mosinthika ndikuyesa malingaliro ovuta kwambiri kuposa momwe mumayendera. Monga banja la magawo omwe akuwonetsera nthawi yotuluka, tinasankha kugawa Weibull chifukwa chogwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pofufuza zamoyo. Khalidwe la kasitomala likhoza kuwonedwa ngati mtundu wa kupulumuka.
Nazi zitsanzo za magawo a Weibull probability density kutengera magawo и :
Uku ndiye kuchuluka kwamakasitomala amakasitomala atatu osiyanasiyana pakapita nthawi. Nthawi imaperekedwa m'miyezi. M'mawu ena, chithunzichi chikuwonetsa nthawi yomwe kasitomala angayambe kugwedezeka m'miyezi iwiri ikubwerayi. Monga mukuwonera, kasitomala yemwe ali ndi gawo ali ndi kuthekera kwakukulu konyamuka kuposa makasitomala omwe ali ndi Weibull(2, 0.5) ndi Weibull (3,1) magawo.
Zotsatira zake ndi chitsanzo chomwe, kwa kasitomala aliyense, kwa aliyense
mwezi amalosera magawo a kugawa kwa Weibull, zomwe zimawonetsa bwino kupezeka kwa kuthekera kwa kutuluka kwa nthawi. Mwatsatanetsatane:
Zomwe tikuyembekezera pamaphunzirowa ndi nthawi yomwe yatsala kuti ifike mwezi umodzi kwa kasitomala wina.
Ngati palibe chiwongola dzanja cha kasitomala, timaganiza kuti nthawi yosinthira ndi yayikulu kuposa kuchuluka kwa miyezi kuyambira mwezi wapano mpaka kumapeto kwa mbiri yomwe tili nayo.
Chitsanzo chogwiritsidwa ntchito: neural network yokhazikika yokhala ndi LSTM layer.
Monga ntchito yotayika, timagwiritsa ntchito zolakwika za log-likelibility pakugawa kwa Weibull.
Nazi ubwino wa njirayi:
Kugawa zotheka, kuphatikizapo kuthekera koonekeratu kwa magulu a binary, kumalola kulosera kosinthika kwa zochitika zosiyanasiyana, mwachitsanzo, ngati kasitomala adzasiya kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito za banki mkati mwa miyezi 3. Komanso, ngati kuli kofunikira, ma metric osiyanasiyana amatha kugawidwa pagawoli.
Koma sikokwanira kupanga chitsanzo chabwino; muyeneranso kuunika bwino mtundu wake.
Kodi ubwino unayesedwa bwanji?
Tinasankha Lift Curve ngati metric. Amagwiritsidwa ntchito mu bizinesi pamilandu yotere chifukwa cha kutanthauzira kwake momveka bwino, kumafotokozedwa bwino apa и apa. Ngati mungafotokoze tanthauzo la metric iyi m'chiganizo chimodzi, zitha kukhala "kodi ndi kangati ma aligorivimu amalosera bwino m'mawu oyamba? % kuposa mwachisawawa."
Zitsanzo zophunzitsira
Mikhalidwe ya mpikisano sinakhazikitse ma metric apamwamba omwe mitundu yosiyanasiyana ndi njira zitha kufananizidwa. Kuphatikiza apo, tanthauzo la churn litha kukhala losiyana ndipo lingadalire mawu amavuto, omwe, nawonso, amatsimikiziridwa ndi zolinga zabizinesi. Chifukwa chake, kuti timvetsetse njira yabwinoko, tidaphunzitsa mitundu iwiri:
Njira yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pamagulu a binary pogwiritsa ntchito njira yophunzirira makina amtundu wa ensemble (Mtengo wa GBM);
Chithunzi cha Weibull-LSTM
Mayeserowa anali ndi makasitomala 500 omwe adasankhidwa kale omwe sanali m'gulu la maphunziro. Ma Hyper-parameters adasankhidwa kuti apange chitsanzo pogwiritsa ntchito kutsimikiziridwa kwa mtanda, wosweka ndi kasitomala. Magawo omwewo adagwiritsidwa ntchito pophunzitsa mtundu uliwonse.
Chifukwa chakuti chitsanzocho chilibe kukumbukira, zida zapadera zinatengedwa kwa izo, kusonyeza chiŵerengero cha kusintha kwa magawo kwa mwezi umodzi ku mtengo wapakati wa magawo m'miyezi itatu yapitayi. Zomwe zimadziwika ndi kuchuluka kwa kusintha kwamitengo m'miyezi itatu yomaliza. Popanda izi, mtundu wa Random Forest ungakhale wopanda mwayi wachibale wa Weibull-LSTM.
Chifukwa chiyani LSTM yokhala ndi kugawa kwa Weibull ndiyabwino kuposa njira yamtengo wosankha
Chilichonse chikuwonekera bwino apa muzithunzi zingapo.
Kuyerekeza kwa Lift Curve kwa classical algorithm ndi Weibull-LSTM
Kuyerekeza kwa metric ya Lift Curve mwezi ndi mwezi kwa classical algorithm ndi Weibull-LSTM
Nthawi zambiri, LSTM ndi yapamwamba kuposa yachikalekale ya algorithm pafupifupi nthawi zonse.
Kusintha kulosera
Chitsanzo chotengera neural network yokhazikika yokhala ndi ma cell a LSTM okhala ndi Weibull yogawa imatha kuneneratu zachurn pasadakhale, mwachitsanzo, kulosera zakusintha kwamakasitomala m'miyezi yotsatira ya n. Ganizirani za n = 3. Pankhaniyi, mwezi uliwonse, neural network iyenera kudziwa molondola ngati kasitomala achoka, kuyambira mwezi wotsatira mpaka mwezi wa nth. Mwanjira ina, iyenera kudziwa molondola ngati kasitomala atsalira pakadutsa miyezi n. Izi zitha kuonedwa ngati zoneneratu pasadakhale: kulosera nthawi yomwe kasitomala atangoyamba kuganiza zochoka.
Tiyeni tifanizire Lift Curve ya Weibull-LSTM 1, 2 ndi 3 miyezi isanatuluke:
Talemba kale pamwambapa kuti zoneneratu zomwe zimapangidwira makasitomala omwe sakugwiranso ntchito kwa nthawi yayitali ndizofunikanso. Chifukwa chake, apa tiwonjeza pazitsanzo ngati kasitomala wochokayo sanagwire ntchito kwa mwezi umodzi kapena iwiri, ndikuwonetsetsa kuti Weibull-LSTM imayika molondola milandu ngati churn. Popeza milandu yotereyi inalipo pachitsanzo, tikuyembekeza kuti netiweki izizigwira bwino:
Tikupanga chitsanzo chomwe chimazindikiritsa zinthu zosangalatsa kwa kasitomala aliyense.
Mwezi uliwonse timayendetsa gulu ndikuzindikira makasitomala omwe angathe kusiya.
Timapereka makasitomala ena malonda, molingana ndi chitsanzo kuchokera pa mfundo 1, ndipo kumbukirani zochita zathu.
Pambuyo pa miyezi ingapo, tikuwona kuti ndi ati mwa awa omwe atha kusiya makasitomala omwe adatsala ndi omwe adatsalira. Choncho, timapanga chitsanzo cha maphunziro.
Timaphunzitsa chitsanzocho pogwiritsa ntchito mbiri yomwe yapezeka mu sitepe 4.
Mwachidziwitso, timabwereza ndondomekoyi, ndikuchotsa chitsanzo kuchokera pa sitepe 1 ndi chitsanzo chomwe chinapezedwa mu sitepe 5.
Kuyesa kwamtundu wa kusungidwa kotereku kutha kuchitika poyesa A/B pafupipafupi - timagawa makasitomala omwe atha kuchoka m'magulu awiri. Timapereka zinthu kwa wina kutengera mtundu wathu wosungira, ndipo kwa winayo sitipereka chilichonse. Tinaganiza zophunzitsa chitsanzo chomwe chingakhale chothandiza kale pa mfundo 1 ya chitsanzo chathu.
Tinkafuna kuti gawolo limasuliridwe momwe tingathere. Kuti tichite izi, tinasankha zinthu zingapo zomwe zingatanthauzidwe mosavuta: chiwerengero chonse cha zochitika, malipiro, ndalama zonse za akaunti, zaka, jenda. Zomwe zili pa tebulo la "Mapu" sizinaganiziridwe ngati zopanda chidziwitso, ndipo zomwe zili mu tebulo 3 "Makontrakitala" sizinaganiziridwe chifukwa cha zovuta zowonongeka pofuna kupewa kutayika kwa deta pakati pa ndondomeko yovomerezeka ndi maphunziro.
Kuphatikizika kunachitika pogwiritsa ntchito mitundu yosakanikirana ya Gaussian. Dongosolo lachidziwitso la Akaike lidatilola kudziwa 2 optima. Kukwanira koyamba kumafanana ndi gulu limodzi. Yachiwiri yabwino, yocheperako, imafanana ndi masango 1. Kutengera chotsatirachi, titha kunena izi: ndizovuta kwambiri kugawa deta m'magulu popanda chidziwitso choperekedwa ndi priori. Kuti muphatikize bwino, mufunika data yomwe imafotokozera kasitomala aliyense mwatsatanetsatane.