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Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Kusankhidwa: Kwa chitukuko chake cha chiphunzitso cha mgwirizano mu neoclassical economics. Mayendedwe a neoclassical amatanthauza kumveka kwa othandizira azachuma ndipo amagwiritsa ntchito kwambiri chiphunzitso cha mgwirizano wachuma ndi chiphunzitso chamasewera.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Oliver Hart ndi Bengt Holmström.

Mgwirizano. Ndi chiyani? Ndine wolemba ntchito, ndili ndi antchito angapo, ndimawauza momwe malipiro awo adzakhazikitsire. Nanga adzalandira bwanji? Milandu iyi ingaphatikizepo machitidwe a anzawo.

Ndipereka zitsanzo zisanu. Zitatu mwa izo zikusonyeza mmene kuyesa kuloŵererako kunachititsa kuti zinthu ziipireipire.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

1. Ophunzira anawoloka msewu m’malo osiyanasiyana. Magalimoto adatsika pang'onopang'ono, ophunzira adathamanga, magalimoto anali "okonzedwa". Zosokoneza, koma zonse zili bwino, moyo umapitirira.

Zaka zingapo zapitazo panali lamulo loti kunali kofunika kukonza njira imodzi yodutsa anthu oyenda pansi. Pali 200-300 mamita pagawo la msewu. Pali mipanda yozungulira ndipo ophunzira onse amapita ku ndime imodzi iyi. Zotsatira zake, ophunzirawo amatsekereza magalimoto kwa mphindi 25 kuyambira 8:45 mpaka 9:10. Palibe galimoto yomwe ingadutse. Chitsanzo chodziwika bwino cha "mgwirizano wopanda pake".

2. Sindinapeze chitsimikiziro chotsimikizika. Factoid, chinthu chomwe aliyense amadziwa ngati chowonadi, koma kwenikweni sangakhale ndi chitsimikizo.

M’dziko lakum’mawa anayamba kulimbana ndi makoswe. Anayamba kulipira khoswe wophedwayo (“ndalama khumi”). Ndiye zonse zikuwonekeratu, aliyense adasiya ntchito yawo ndikuyamba kuswana makoswe. (Adakuwa kuchokera kwa omvera kuti zomwe zidachitika ku India ndi cobras (Cobra effect).)

3. Panali malonda awiri ogulitsa ma frequency band, ku England ndi Switzerland. Ku England, ndondomekoyi inatsogozedwa ndi Roger Myerson, wopambana mphoto ya Nobel. Analikwanitsa m’njira yakuti mtengo wa kontrakitiyo unali pafupifupi mapaundi 600 kwa Mngelezi aliyense. Ndipo ku Switzerland iwo analephera kotheratu malondawo. Adapanga chiwembu ndipo zidatuluka ma franc 20 munthu aliyense.

4. Sindingathe kulankhula popanda misozi, koma misozi yatha kale. Mayeso a Unified State awononga maphunziro akusukulu. Linapangidwa kuti lithane ndi ziphuphu, kuti zonse zikhale zachilungamo komanso zachilungamo. Momwe zonsezi zinathera, ndinganene kuti m'masukulu ambiri, kupatulapo zabwino kwambiri, pali maphunziro a Unified State Exam, maphunziro aimitsidwa, ndipo maphunziro akuchitika. Aphunzitsi amauzidwa mwachindunji kuti: “Malipiro anu ndi kupezeka kwanu kusukulu zimadalira mmene ophunzira anu amapambana Mayeso a State Ogwirizana.”

N'chimodzimodzinso ndi zolemba ndi scientometrics.

5. Ndondomeko ya msonkho. Pali zitsanzo zambiri zopambana ndi zina zambiri zomwe sizinapambane. Zambiri mwa lipotilo zidzaperekedwa ku nkhaniyi.

Mechinism kupanga

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Ndinawona magulu osiyanasiyana oyenda maulendo, kuphatikizapo akuluakulu - 30-40-50 anthu. Ndi ndondomeko yokonzedwa bwino, iyi ndi gulu lankhondo lomwe limakhala ngati chamoyo chimodzi. Aliyense ali ndi udindo wake, bizinesi yakeyake. Ndipo m’malo ena ndi chisokonezo chomasuka.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Momwe mungathetsere vuto lowongolera ngati pali olamulira ochepa?

Vutoli nthawi zambiri limabwera mosiyanasiyana. Sizinathetsedwe bwino nthawi zonse.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Chitsanzo.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Pali metro yosinthira kupita ku masitima apamagetsi amagetsi. 20 otembenuka ndi mlonda mmodzi. Ndipo kumbali iyi, pafupifupi akalulu 10 ali odzaza pakona. Sitimayo inafika ndipo aliyense akuthamanga ngati walamulidwa. Mlonda atenga imodzi, koma ena onse amathamangira. Ngati tiyang'ana izi kuchokera ku lingaliro la masewera, ndizochitika zomwe pali zochitika ziwiri zosiyana kwambiri.

M'modzi, palibe amene amapita ndipo aliyense amadziwa kuti palibe amene amapita, palibe amene amayesa, izi ndizochitika zokhazokha. Ndi kulinganiza, aliyense akuchita chinthu "choyenera". Ndipo munthu mmodzi amaletsa khamu lonselo.

Koma palinso njira ina. Aliyense akuthamanga. Ngati mukukhulupirira kuti aliyense akuthamanga, ndiye kuti mwayi woti mudzagwidwe ndi 1/15, mutha kukhala pachiwopsezo. Kukhala ndi njira ziwiri ndizovuta kwambiri kwa asayansi amalingaliro amasewera. Mwina theka la chiphunzitso cha masewera ndi lodzipereka pothana ndi zochitika zoterezi. Momwe mungabzalire lingaliro muubongo wa akalulu kuti aziopa "kutsetsereka"?

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Uyu ndi John Nash. Anatsimikizira chiphunzitso chodziwika bwino cha kukhalapo kwa mgwirizano mumasewera omwe ali ndi mayankho olumikizana. Pamene zotsatira zake zimadalira osati pa zisankho zanu, komanso zisankho za ena onse.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Zitsanzo zina za kulinganiza.

Kodi деньги? Muli ndi pepala lachilendo mthumba mwanu. Mwagwira ntchito ndipo mapepala awa (manambala pa akaunti) achuluka. Mwa iwo okha sakutanthauza kanthu. Mutha kuyatsa moto ndikuwotha. Koma inu mukukhulupirira kuti iwo akutanthauza chinachake. Mukudziwa kuti mupita ku sitolo ndipo adzalandiridwa. Iye amene alandira, akhulupiriranso kuti adzalandiranso kwa iye. Chikhulupiriro chapadziko lonse kuti mapepalawa ali ndi phindu ndi chiyanjano cha anthu, chomwe, nthawi ndi nthawi, chimawonongeka pamene hyperinflation imachitika. Ndiye, kuchokera pamene aliyense amakhulupirira ndalama, amasanduka mkhalidwe umene aliyense sakhulupirira ndalama.

Magalimoto kumanja ndi kumanzere. Ndi zosiyana m’maiko ena, koma mumatsatira malamulowa.

Chifukwa chiyani anthu amapita ku physics ndi teknoloji? Chifukwa pali chidaliro chakuti amaphunzitsa bwino kumeneko. Pali chidaliro kuti ophunzira ena amphamvu adzapita kumeneko. Tangoganizani kamphindi kuti gulu lina la ana asukulu amphamvu kwambiri linavomereza mwadzidzidzi ndipo linapita ku yunivesite yofooka. Nthawi yomweyo adzakhala wamphamvu.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Kodi mlonda angachotse bwanji kusalinganika koipa?

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Ndikofunikira kuwerengera akalulu onse mokweza ndikudziwitsa kuti ngakhale atalumpha ndani, agwira yemwe ali ndi nambala yochepa.

Tiyerekeze kuti kampani ina yasankha kudumpha. Ndiye amene ali ndi chiwerengero chochepa akudziwa motsimikiza kuti adzagwidwa ndipo sadzalumpha. Kusamala ndi pamene timalingalira molondola zochita za anthu ena ndi zochita zathu, zomwe ena amalingalira za ife. Mu "mndandanda mokweza", mgwirizano uli ndi katundu wowonjezera wokhazikika. Zimatsutsana ndi "kugwirizanitsa / mgwirizano". Ndiko kuti, mu mgwirizanowu sizingatheke ngakhale kuvomereza kuti panthawi imodzimodziyo chiwerengero cha anthu chidzasintha khalidwe lawo kotero kuti chifukwa chake aliyense adzamva bwino.

Ngati mulemba malamulo ovuta ndipo kampaniyo siyingathe kuwamvetsa, ndiye kuti simungayembekezere kuti azichita mogwirizana ndi Nash equilibrium. Apanga zosankha mwachisawawa.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Tiyerekeze kuti taletsedwa (kuletsedwa kwa mabungwe) kuti "tisalembe mokweza." Njira zathu ziyenera kukhala zofanana (zosadziwika). Koma tikhoza kunena za "ndalama". Ngati chinachake chichitika, ine ndimachita chinthu chimodzi, ngati china chikachitika, ine ndimachita china.

Ntchito yaikulu. Linapangidwa ndi kuphunziridwa zaka 20 zapitazo. Palibe amene ankalipira misonkho. Iwo anayesa kukonza dongosolo motere. Phindu la ziro, ziphuphu ... Akuluakulu amisonkho adatembenukira ku bungwe lomwe ndimagwira ntchito pang'ono, kwa woyang'anira wanga. Tonse tinakonza vuto motere. Pali n mafakitale, aliyense ali ndi woyang'anira wake, koma ena % ya milandu iye coludes. % aliyense amadzisankhira yekha. x1, x2; xn.
x=0 zikutanthauza kuti woyang'anira adaganiza zokhala wowona mtima. x=1 amalandila ziphuphu nthawi zonse.

Ma X amatha kudziwika ndi umboni wosalunjika, koma sitingagwiritse ntchito kukhoti. Kutengera chidziwitsochi, muyenera kupanga njira yotsimikizira.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Zitha kukhala zosavuta kuti pakhale cheke chimodzi chokha, koma ndi chilango chachikulu kwambiri. Ndipo timapereka mwayi ku mayesowa. Mpata wakuti ndidza kwa inu ndi uwu, ndipo kuti ndidzabwera kwa inu ndi uwu. Ndipo izi ndi ntchito zochokera ku Xs. Ndipo kuchuluka kwake sikudutsa imodzi. Ndikoyenera kuti musayang'ane konse nthawi zina ndikuwalonjeza izi.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

p ndi mapu a kyubu ya n-dimensional mu seti ya magawo onse otheka. Ndikofunikira kulembetsa zopambana zawo, kuti mumvetsetse momwe aliyense wa iwo adzalandira akasankha mu% yamilandu kuti atenge ziphuphu.

bi ndi "chiphuphu champhamvu" chamakampani (ngati mutenga chiphuphu m'malo mwa msonkho kulikonse).

Chilangocho chimachotsedwa ku kuthekera komwe kungachitike. Kuchokera kwa uti? Choyamba, m'pofunika kufufuza izo. Koma si zokhazo, chekecho chikhoza kuchitika pamene zonse zinali zoyera. Njira yosavuta, koma zovutazo zimabisika mu "p".

Tili ndi slang zomwe sizipezeka m'nthambi zina za masamu: xi. Ichi ndi gulu la mitundu yonse kupatula yanga. Izi ndi zosankha zomwe aliyense adapanga. Uwu ndi udindo wapagulu.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Tsopano funso ndi ili: Ndi lingaliro lanji la kusamvana lomwe timayembekezera kuti iwo azikhalamo?

M'zaka za m'ma 90 panali chisokonezo chachikulu apa. Okonza zoyenderawo analengeza kwa aliyense kuti anthu ochita zachipongwe kwambiri adzalangidwa. Cheke idzabwera kwa iye.

Kodi zolosera za mkhalidwewu ziwoneka bwanji?

Anthu omwe adapanga malamulowo adaganiza kuti padzakhala kuyanjana kodziyimira pawokha. Chofanana chokha ndikuti zonse ndi zero. Koma m'moyo weniweni zinali 100% Chifukwa chiyani?

Yankho ndiloti mgwirizanowu ndi wosakhazikika pakupangana.

Tinayamba kukanda ma turnips athu.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Chitsanzo chotsogolera ndi udindo wa munthu payekha. Tangoganizirani mkhalidwe woipa: chindapusa chalamulo ndi chocheperapo chindapusa. Ngati insipekitala amagwira ntchito m’mafakitale amafuta kwambiri moti chiphuphu chake n’chokwera kuposa chindapusa, kodi pali chilichonse chimene chingachitike? Chindapusa sichingatengedwe kupitilira kamodzi.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Ndikudziwa kuti woyang'anira adzalipira ndipo adzakhala wakuda. Koma ndingakulonjezani kuti sindidzakuyang'anani ngati mulingo wanu wakatangale suposa 30%. Phindu liti?

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Zakale zakale zinali nazo kale izi.

Katatu kuchuluka kwa ziphuphu kumachepa.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Mwatsatanetsatane mkhalidwe. 4 anthu. Kuchuluka kwa ziphuphu ndi kochepa kuposa chindapusa.

Ngati mudalira makontrakitala pawokha, simudzakhala "zero" aliyense. Koma nditha kufikitsa aliyense pazero ndi njira yogwirira ntchito pamodzi.

Ndimatumizanso chekeyo yokhala ndi mwayi wofanana osati pamlingo waukulu, koma kwa osakhala ziro. Akuba onse omwe alibe ziro peresenti aliyense adzalandira cheke ndi kuthekera kwa 1/4. Sindisinthanso kuthekera kutengera ma X.

Ndiye palibe kufanana kwina koma zero. Ndipo sipangakhale kugwirizananso.

Ndipo ngati palibe chiwembu chokha, komanso kusamutsa ndalama, ndiye kuti chiphunzitso cha masewera chimalephera kwathunthu. Pali umboni wokhwima.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Gulu lonse la njira zakhazikitsidwa zomwe zimayendetsedwa kudzera mu mgwirizano wamphamvu wa Nash womwe umalimbana ndi kugwirizana.

Timayika magawo angapo a kulolerana ndi ziphuphu. z1 - mlingo wololera kwathunthu, ena onse - mlingo wa kusalolera ukuwonjezeka. Ndipo pamlingo uliwonse amawunikira mwayi wotsimikizira. Fomula ikuwoneka motere:

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

λ1 - kuthekera koyang'ana pamlingo woyamba wolekerera - amagawidwa mofanana pakati pa aliyense amene wadutsa, kuwonjezera, λ2 amagawidwa pakati pa aliyense amene wadutsa gawo lachiwiri, ndi zina zotero.

Zaka 15 zapitazo ndinatsimikizira chiphunzitso chotsatira.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Njirayi idagwiritsidwa ntchito pamaso panga ngati njira yogawanitsa ndalama.

Alexey Savvateev: Momwe mungathanirane ndi ziphuphu mothandizidwa ndi masamu (Mphotho ya Nobel mu Economics ya 2016)

Makontrakitala amawononga ndalama. Njira zoyankhulirana zoganiziridwa bwino zimapulumutsa ndalama zambiri, nthawi zina. Sungani nthawi.

Udindo wapagulu ndi wothandiza. Kumangirira munthu pagulu n’kothandiza.

Momwe ndinapangira lipoti ku Unduna wa Zam'kati.

Ndinafika, panali apolisi pafupifupi 40 a magulu osiyanasiyana, anamvetsera, kuyang'ana wina ndi mzake, kunong'onezana, ndiyeno wamkulu anabwera kwa ine nati: "Alexey, zikomo, ndizosangalatsa kumvetsera munthu wokonda kwambiri. za sayansi yake ... koma izi sizikugwirizana ndi zenizeni. ”

Akuluakulu achinyengo aku Russia omwe adawona moyeserera amachita mosiyana ndi aku America omwe adawona. Kodi mukudziwa kusiyana kwake? Munthu wa ku Russia akayamba kulandira ziphuphu, sakhalanso wothandizira pazachuma yemwe amachulukitsa phindu lake. [Mawu]

Munthuyo amayamba kulandira ziphuphu mpaka malire, osakambirana chilichonse. Ayenera kugwidwa ndi kuikidwa m'ndende, ndi zomwe sayansi ikunena.

Zikomo.



Source: www.habr.com

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