CAGR ngati temberero la akatswiri, kapena zolakwika pakulosera njira zakutsogolo

Mwa iwo amene akuwerenga lemba ili, ndithudi, pali akatswiri ambiri. Ndipo, ndithudi, aliyense amadziwa bwino m'madera awo ndipo ali ndi chidziwitso chabwino cha chiyembekezo cha matekinoloje osiyanasiyana ndi chitukuko chawo. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, mbiri yakale (yomwe "imaphunzitsa kuti sichiphunzitsa kanthu") imadziwa zitsanzo zambiri pamene akatswiri adapanga molimba mtima maulosi osiyanasiyana ndikuphonya ndi malire aakulu kwambiri: 

• “Foni ili ndi zofooka zambiri kotero kuti sizingaganizidwe mozama ngati njira yolumikizirana. Chipangizochi n’chopanda phindu kwa ife,” analemba motero akatswiriwo. Western Union, ndiye kampani yaikulu kwambiri ya telegraph mu 1876. 
• “Wailesi ilibe tsogolo. Ndege zolemera kuposa ndege sizingatheke. Ma X-ray adzakhala ngati zabodza, "adatero William Thomson Lord Kelvin mu 1899, ndipo wina akhoza, ndithudi, nthabwala kuti asayansi a ku Britain anali akugwedeza kumbuyo m'zaka za zana la XNUMX, koma tidzakhala tikuyesa kutentha kwa Kelvin kwa nthawi yaitali, ndipo palibe chifukwa chokayikira kuti mbuye wolemekezeka anali wabwino. wasayansi. 
• "Ndani gehena akufuna kumva zisudzo akulankhula?" adatero za talkies Harry Warner, amene anayambitsa Warner Brothers mu 1927, mmodzi wa akatswiri otsogola kwambiri a mafilimu panthawiyo. 
• "Palibe chifukwa chomwe aliyense amafunikira kompyuta yakunyumba," Ken Olson, woyambitsa Digital Equipment Corporation mu 1977, atangotsala pang'ono kuchotsedwa makompyuta apanyumba ...
• Masiku ano, palibe chomwe chasintha: "Palibe mwayi woti iPhone ipeza gawo lalikulu pamsika," CEO wa Microsoft adalemba ku USA Today. Steve Ballmer mu Epulo 2007 kusanachitike kukwera kopambana kwa mafoni a m'manja.

Wina akhoza kuseka mosangalala maulosi awa ngati wantchito wanu wodzichepetsa, mwachitsanzo, sanalakwitse kwambiri m'munda mwake. Ndipo ngati sindinawone kuchuluka kwake, akatswiri ambiri akulakwitsa. Mwambiri, pali gulu lachikale "izi sizinachitikepo, ndipo izi zachitikanso." Ndipo kachiwiri. Ndipo kachiwiri. Komanso, akatswiri ndi akatswiri kuweruzidwa ku zolakwa Nthawi zambiri. Makamaka zikafika pamachitidwe owopsa aja. 

O mai, wowonetsa uyu

Vuto loyamba ndi ma exponential process ndikuti ngakhale kudziwa momwe amakulira mwachangu m’lingaliro la masamu (panthawi yomweyi magawo awo amasintha nthawi yomweyo), pamlingo watsiku ndi tsiku ndizovuta kwambiri kulingalira kukula kotere. Chitsanzo chapamwamba: ngati tiyenda sitepe imodzi patsogolo, ndiye kuti mu masitepe 30 tidzayenda mamita 30, koma ngati sitepe iliyonse ikukula mofulumira, ndiye kuti mu masitepe 30 tidzazungulira dziko lonse lapansi maulendo 26 ("Nthawi makumi awiri ndi zisanu ndi chimodzi, Karl !!! ”) m'mphepete mwa equator:

Source: Momwe Mungaganizire Mwachidule Ndiponso Bwino Kuneneratu Zam'tsogolo

Funso kwa opanga mapulogalamu: Kodi timakweza mphamvu zotani pankhaniyi?

YankhaniChokhazikika ndi chofanana ndi 2, i.e. kuwirikiza pa sitepe iliyonse.
Pamene ndondomeko ikukula mofulumira, imabweretsa kusintha kwakukulu kofulumira komwe kumawoneka bwino ndi maso. Chitsanzo chabwino kwambiri chaperekedwa ndi Tony Seba. Mu 1900, pa Fifth Avenue ku New York, zinali zovuta kuona galimoto imodzi yokha pakati pa ngolo zokokedwa ndi akavalo:

Ndipo patangopita zaka 13, mumsewu womwewo, simungathe kuwona ngolo imodzi yokha yokokedwa ndi kavalo pakati pa magalimoto:

Timawona chithunzi chofanana, mwachitsanzo, ndi mafoni a m'manja. История Nokia, yomwe idakwera funde limodzi ndipo inali mtsogoleri kwa nthawi yayitali ndi malire, koma sanathe kulowa mumtsinje wotsatira ndipo pafupifupi nthawi yomweyo idataya msika (onani wamkulu makanema ndi atsogoleri amsika ndi chaka) ndiwophunzitsa kwambiri.

Akatswiri onse apakompyuta amadziwa Lamulo la Moore, zomwe zidapangidwira ma transistors ndipo zakhala zowona kwa zaka 40. Ma comrades ena amachipanga kukhala vacuyumu machubu ndi zida zamakina ndipo amati chidagwira ntchito kwa zaka 120. Ndikosavuta kuwonetsa njira zofotokozera ndi sikelo ya logarithmic, pomwe imakhala (pafupifupi) mzere ndipo zikuwonekeratu kuti kuphatikizika koteroko kuli ndi ufulu kukhalapo:

Gwero: Izi ndi ma graph awiri otsatirawa kuchokera Lamulo la Moore Pazaka 120  

M'mizere ya mzere, kukula kumawoneka motere:

Ndipo apa tikufika pang'onopang'ono kubisala kwachiwiri kwa njira zowonetsera. Ngati kukula kwakhala motere kwa zaka 120, kodi izi zikutanthauza kuti chiwerengero chathu chowonjezereka chidzakhala chofanana kwa zaka zina 10?

M'machitidwe likukhalira kuti ayi. Mu mawonekedwe ake oyera, kukula kwa makompyuta kwakhala kukucheperachepera kwa zaka zingapo, zomwe zimatilola kulankhula za "imfa ya lamulo la Moore":

Source:  Pamene Lamulo la Moore likutha, kupititsa patsogolo kwa hardware kumatenga gawo lalikulu

Komanso, n'zochititsa chidwi kuti phirilo silingangowongoka, komanso likukwera ndi mphamvu zatsopano. Wantchito wanu wodzichepetsa anafotokoza mwatsatanetsatane mmene zimenezi zingachitikire. Inde, padzakhala mawerengedwe ena (olakwika a neural network), koma pamapeto pake, ngati ma calculator olakwika ndi makina owerengera akulitsa sikelo mpaka zaka 120, ndiye kuti ma neural accelerators ndi oyenera pamenepo. Komabe, sizolondola.

Ndikofunika kumvetsa zimenezo Kukula kokulirapo kumatha kuyima chifukwa chaukadaulo, thupi, zachuma komanso chikhalidwe (mndandandawu ndi wosakwanira). Ndipo ichi ndi chachiwiri chachikulu chobisalira njira zowonetsera - kulosera molondola nthawi yomwe mapindikidwe akuyamba kuchoka pa exponential. Zolakwa mbali zonse ziwiri ndizofala kwambiri pano.

Chiwerengero:

• Chobisalira choyamba cha kukula kwachidziwitso ndikuti chizindikirocho chikukula mosayembekezereka ngakhale kwa akatswiri. Ndipo kupeputsa exponential ndi kulakwitsa kwachikhalidwe kobwerezedwa mobwerezabwereza. Monga momwe akatswiri okhwima enieni adanenera zaka 100 zapitazo: "Akasinja, njonda, ndi mafashoni, koma okwera pamahatchi ndi osatha!"
• Vuto lachiwiri ndi kukula kwachidziwitso ndiloti panthawi ina (nthawi zina pambuyo pa zaka 40 kapena 120) imatha, komanso sikophweka kufotokoza molondola nthawi yomwe idzatha. Ndipo ngakhale lamulo la Moore, pomwe atolankhani ambiri aukadaulo adasiya ziboda zawo atamwalira, akhoza kubwerera ku ntchito ndi mphamvu zatsopano. Ndipo siziwoneka zokwanira! 

Njira zowonetsera komanso kulanda msika

Ngati tilankhula za kusintha kowoneka kozungulira ife ndi msika, ndizosangalatsa kuona momwe matekinoloje osiyanasiyana adagonjetsa msika. Ndikosavuta kuchita izi pogwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo cha United States, komwe kwa zaka zoposa 100 mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya ziwerengero zamsika yasungidwa molondola: 

Source: Ndi Zomwe Mumawononga 

Ndizosangalatsa komanso zophunzitsa kuwona momwe gawo la nyumba zokhala ndi matelefoni amawaya limakulirakulira pang'onopang'ono, ndikutsika kwambiri ndi kotala pazaka. Kupsinjika Kwakukulu. Gawo la nyumba zokhala ndi magetsi linakulanso, koma linagwa mochepa kwambiri: anthu sanali okonzeka kusiya magetsi, ngakhale pamene panalibe ndalama zokwanira. Ndipo kufalikira kwa wailesi yakunyumba sikunamve vuto lalikulu lazachuma nkomwe; aliyense anali ndi chidwi ndi nkhani zaposachedwa. Ndipo, mosiyana ndi telefoni, magetsi kapena galimoto, wailesi ilibe ndalama zogwiritsira ntchito. Mwa njira, kukwera kwa magalimoto amunthu, komwe kunasokonezedwa ndi Kukhumudwa Kwakukulu, kunabwezeretsedwanso patatha zaka 20, matelefoni apamtunda adabwezeretsedwa pambuyo pa zaka 10, ndi magetsi a nyumba - pambuyo pa 5.

Zikuwonekeratu kuti kufalikira kwa ma air conditioners, mavuni a microwave, makompyuta ndi mafoni a m'manja kunali kofulumira kwambiri kuposa kufalikira kwa matekinoloje atsopano kale. Kuchokera pagawo la 10% mpaka 70%, kukula kunachitika m'zaka 10 zokha. Ukadaulo wosinthika wazaka zana nthawi zambiri umatenga zaka zopitilira 40 kuti akwaniritse kukula komweku. Imvani kusiyana!

Chinachake choseketsa kwa wolemba payekha. Ganizirani momwe makina ochapira ndi zowumitsira zovala zakula bwino kuyambira zaka za m'ma 60s. Ndizoseketsa kuti omalizawa ndi pafupifupi osadziwika pakati pathu. Ndipo ngati ku USA, kuyambira nthawi ina, nthawi zambiri amagulidwa awiriawiri, ndiye alendo athu nthawi zambiri amafunsa funso: "N'chifukwa chiyani mukufunikira makina awiri ochapira?" Muyenera kuyankha mozama kuti yachiwiriyo yasungidwa, ngati yoyamba yathyoka. 

Komanso tcherani khutu ku gawo lakugwa la makina ochapira. Panthawiyo, zochapira zapagulu zidafalikira kwambiri, komwe mumatha kubwera, kunyamula zochapira mu makina, kuchapa ndikuchoka. Zotsika mtengo. Zinthu ngati zimenezi zikadali zofala kwambiri ku United States. Ichi ndi chitsanzo cha zochitika zomwe mtundu wabizinesi wamsika wina umasintha kuchuluka kwaukadaulo waukadaulo ndi kapangidwe ka malonda (makina okwera mtengo owononga owononga amagulitsa bwino).

Kuthamanga kwa njira kumawonekera makamaka m'zaka zaposachedwa, pamene kulowetsedwa kwaumisiri kunakhala "nthawi yomweyo" ndi miyezo ya kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 20 (zaka 5-7):

Source: Kuthamanga Kwambiri kwa Technological Adoption (Zojambula pa ulalo ndizochita!)

Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kukwera kofulumira kwa teknoloji imodzi nthawi zambiri kumakhala kugwa kwa wina. Kukwera kwawailesi kumatanthauza kukakamizidwa pamsika wamanyuzipepala, kukwera kwa uvuni wa microwave kunachepetsa kufunikira kwa uvuni wamagesi, ndi zina zambiri. Nthaŵi zina mpikisanowo unali wachindunji, mwachitsanzo, kukwera kwa zojambulira makaseti kunachepetsa kwambiri kufunika kwa malekodi a vinyl, ndipo kukwera kwa ma CD kunachepetsa kufunika kwa makaseti. Ndipo mtsinje unawapha onse ndi kukula kwa digito yogawa nyimbo, ndalama zamakampani zidatsika kuposa nthawi za 2 (chithunzicho chazunguliridwa ndi chimango chakuda chachisoni):

Source: Imfa Yeniyeni Ya Kampani Yanyimbo 

Momwemonso, chiwerengero cha zithunzi zojambulidwa chikukula kwambiri, komanso, posachedwapa ndi kusintha kwa digito, kukula kwawonjezeka kwambiri. Chifukwa chake, "imfa" ya zithunzi za analogue inali "nthawi yomweyo" malinga ndi mbiri yakale:

Source: https://habr.com/ru/news/t/455864/#comment_20274554 

Zodzaza ndi sewero mbiri ya Kodak, yomwe inatulukira modabwitsa kamera ya digito ndipo inaphonya kukwera kowonjezereka kwa kujambula kwa digito, ndi yophunzitsa kwambiri. Koma chinthu chachikulu chimene mbiri imaphunzitsa n’chakuti sichiphunzitsa kalikonse. Choncho, mkhalidwewo udzabwereza mobwerezabwereza. Ngati mukukhulupirira ziwerengero - ndi mathamangitsidwe.

Chiwerengero: 

• Zopindulitsa zambiri zolosera zitha kupezeka powerenga mathamangitsidwe ndi kutsika kwamisika m'zaka 100 zapitazi.
• Kuchuluka kwazinthu zatsopano kukuwonjezeka pafupifupi, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti chiwerengero cha maulosi onyenga chidzawonjezeka. Samalani…

Tiyeni tizichita

Inu, ndithudi, mukuganiza kuti zonsezi ndi zophweka, zomveka, ndipo, kawirikawiri, kuganizira zonsezi muzoneneratu sikovuta kwambiri. Ndinu pachabe... Tsopano zosangalatsa zikuyamba… Kumanga mmwamba?

Posachedwapa, Igor Sechin, mkulu wa bungwe la Rosneft, analankhula pa msonkhano wa mayiko wa St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, kumene makamaka anati: “Zotsatira zake, zopereka za mphamvu zina ku mphamvu yapadziko lonse lapansi zidzakhalabe zazing'ono: pofika 2040 zidzawonjezeka kuchokera pa 12 mpaka 16%" Kodi pali amene amakayikira kuti Sechin ndi katswiri pantchito yake? Ine ndikuganiza ayi. 

Nthawi yomweyo, m'zaka zaposachedwa, gawo la mphamvu zina lakula pafupifupi 1% pachaka, ndipo kukula kwagawo kukukulirakulira: 

Source: Statista: Kugawana mphamvu zongowonjezwwdzw pakupanga mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi (njira yowerengerayi idasankhidwa - yopanda mphamvu yamadzi yayikulu, chifukwa izi zimabweretsa 12%).

Ndiyeno - vuto 3 kalasi. Pali mtengo womwe mu 2017 unali wofanana ndi 12% ndipo ukukula ndi 1% pachaka. Idzafika 16% mchaka chiti? Mu 2040? Waganiza bwino, bwenzi langa? Dziwani kuti poyankha "mu 2021" tikulakwitsa kwambiri kulosera zam'mbali. Zimakhala zomveka kuganizira za momwe ntchitoyi ikuyendera ndikupanga maulosi atatu apamwamba: 

1. "chiyembekezo" chifukwa cha kufulumira kwa chitukuko, 
2. "avareji" - kutengera lingaliro lakuti kuchuluka kwa kukula kudzakhala kofanana ndi chaka chabwino kwambiri m'zaka 5 zapitazi 
3. ndi "zopanda chiyembekezo" - kutengera lingaliro lakuti kuchuluka kwa kukula kudzakhala pafupifupi mofanana ndi chaka choipitsitsa m'zaka 5 zapitazi. 

Kuphatikiza apo, ngakhale malinga ndi zomwe zanenedweratu, 16.1% ikwaniritsidwa kale mu 2020, i.e. chaka chamawa:

Gwero: kuwerengera kwa wolemba 

Kuti timvetsetse bwino (za njira zofotokozera), timapereka ma graph omwewo pamlingo wa logarithmic:  

Akuwonetsa kuti zochitika zamtunduwu ndizokhazikika, ngakhale mutayang'ana kuyambira 2007. Pazonse, mtengo womwe wanenedweratu wa 2040 ukhoza kukwaniritsidwa chaka chamawa, kapena kuposa chaka chimodzi.

Kunena chilungamo, Sechin si yekhayo amene "akulakwitsa" motere. Mwachitsanzo, ogwira ntchito pamafuta a BP (British Petroleum) amaneneratu zapachaka, ndipo akutsogozedwa kale kuti, popeza akhala akulosera kwa zaka zambiri, mobwerezabwereza samaganizira za kuchuluka kwa ntchitoyo (“Derivative? Ayi, simunamve!”). Chifukwa chake, amayenera kukweza zolosera zawo chaka chilichonse kwa zaka zambiri:

Source: Kulephera Kuneneratu / Chifukwa chiyani osunga ndalama ayenera kusamalira zolosera zamakampani amafuta mosamala

Pafupi ndi zolosera za Sechin International Energy Agency (maphwando okhala ndi antchito olemera kwambiri, yang'anani mapaipi omwe ali pamizu ya gawo la Russia la malowa). Iwo, kwenikweni, samaganizira za momwe zimakhalira, zomwe zimatsogolera dongosolo la zolakwika zazikulu kwa zaka 7, ndipo amabwereza cholakwika ichi mwadongosolo:

Source: Zolosera zathu sizinachitike ndipo malonjezo athu ndi osadalirika (tsamba lomwe renen.ru, chabwino, chabwino)

Zolosera zawo zimawoneka zoseketsa kwambiri ndi zomwe zachitika posachedwa (mumawerenganso "chabwino, adzayima liti !!!" m'makhota awo?):

Source: Kukula kwa Photovoltaic: zenizeni motsutsana ndi zomwe International Energy Agency

Izi ndizotsutsana kwenikweni, koma polosera njira zambiri, zimakhala zogwira mtima kwambiri kuti musaganizire zolosera zam'mbuyo za nthawi yapitayi komanso osati zowonetseratu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pazomwe zikuchitika, koma kusintha kwa liwiro la ndondomekoyi. Izi zimapereka zotsatira zolondola kwambiri zamachitidwe ofanana:

Source: The AI ​​Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence 

M'mabuku a chilankhulo cha Chingerezi, makamaka pakusanthula bizinesi, chidule cha CAGR chimagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zonse (Mtengo Wochulukitsa Wapachaka - ulalo umaperekedwa kwa wiki ya chilankhulo cha Chingerezi, ndipo ndizodziwika kuti palibe nkhani yofananira mu Wikipedia yachilankhulo cha Chirasha). CAGR ikhoza kumasuliridwa kuti "chiwopsezo chakukula kwapachaka." Imawerengedwa motsatira ndondomeko
 

kumene t0 - chaka choyamba, tn - chaka chomaliza, ndi V (t) - mtengo wa parameter, mwina kusintha malinga ndi lamulo lachidziwitso. Mtengo umafotokozedwa ngati peresenti ndipo umatanthauza kuti ndi zingati peresenti ya mtengo wina (kawirikawiri msika wina) umakula m'chaka.

Pali zitsanzo zambiri pa intaneti za momwe mungawerengere CAGR, mwachitsanzo, mu Google Docs ndi Excel:

• Momwe Mungawonjezere Fomula ya CAGR ku Google Sheets Spreadsheets
• Fomula ya CAGR mu Excel (zolemba za Chirasha zoyenera CAGR: chizindikiro ichi ndi chiyani komanso momwe mungawerengere)

Tiyeni tiyendetse kalasi lalifupi la ambuye pansi pa mawu akuti "tiyeni tithandize Sechin", kutenga deta kuchokera ku kampani ya mafuta BP (monga kuyerekezera kochepa). Kwa iwo omwe ali ndi chidwi, deta yokhayo ili mu google doc iyi, mukhoza kukopera nokha ndikuwerengera mosiyana. Padziko lonse lapansi, kupanga zongowonjezwdwa kukukulirakulira:

Gwero: Apa ndi kupitilira pazithunzi zakuda, kuwerengera kwa wolemba malinga ndi BP 

Kukula kwake ndi logarithmic, ndipo zikuwonekeratu kuti madera onse ali ndi kukula kwakukulu (izi ndizofunikira!), Ambiri omwe ali ndi mathamangitsidwe a exponential. Monga zikuyembekezeredwa, atsogoleriwo ndi China ndi oyandikana nawo, atadutsa North America ndi Europe. Ndizosangalatsa kuti malo omaliza - Middle East - ndi amodzi mwa madera omwe amapanga mafuta kwambiri padziko lapansi, ndipo ali ndi CAGR yapamwamba kwambiri pakati pa onse (44% pazaka 5 zapitazi (!)). N'zosadabwitsa kuona dongosolo la kukula kwa zaka 6, ndi kuweruza ndi zonena za akuluakulu awo, iwo apitiriza chimodzimodzi. Mtumiki wakale wa mafuta ku Saudi Arabia anachenjeza mwanzeru anzake a OPEC mmbuyomo mu 2000 kuti: "Nyengo ya Stone Age sinathe chifukwa panalibe miyala," ndipo zikuwoneka kuti analingalira malingaliro anzeruwa zaka 10 zapitazo. CIS (CIS), monga tikuonera, ili pamalo otsiriza. Mlingo wa kukula, komabe, ndi wabwino kwambiri. 

CAGR ikhoza kuwerengedwa m'njira zosiyanasiyana. Mwachitsanzo, tiyeni timange CAGR ya chaka chilichonse kuyambira 1965, kwa zaka 5 zapitazi komanso zaka 10 zapitazi. Mupeza chithunzi chosangalatsa ichi (chokwanira padziko lonse lapansi):

Zitha kuwoneka bwino kuti, pa avareji, kukula kwachulukidwe kumachulukira kenako ndikuchepa. "Moskovsky Komsomolets" ndi ma TV ena achikaso pankhaniyi nthawi zambiri amalemba kuti "Chuma cha China chikutsika," kutanthauza "chiwopsezo chakukula kwachuma cha China chikucheperachepera" ndikusalankhula mwanzeru kuti akucheperachepera. liŵiro loterolo kuti ena amangodziŵa maloto okha. Chilichonse ndi chofanana kwambiri pano.

Tiyeni tiyese kuneneratu za kupanga mu 2018 kutengera deta mpaka 2010, kutenga CAGR'1965, CAGR'10Y, CAGR'5Y ndi zolosera zam'mbali kuyambira 2010 wachibale mpaka 2009 komanso wachibale mpaka 2006. Timapeza chithunzi chotsatirachi:

	Linear'1Y	Linear'4Y	CAGR ya 1965	CAGR'10Y	CAGR'5Y
Kupanga zongowonjezwdwa mu 2018, kulosera zochokera deta mpaka 2010	1697	1442	1465	2035	2429
Maganizo pa zenizeni mu 2018	0,68	0,58	0,59	0,82	0,98
Zolakwika zamtsogolo	32%	42%	41%	18%	2%

Mfundo zamakhalidwe - palibe zolosera zomwe zidakhala zabwino kwambiri, i.e. pansi paliponse. Muzochitika zabwino kwambiri ndi CAGR ya 15,7%, kuperewera kunali 2%. Zolosera zam'mbali zidapereka cholakwika cha 30-40% (nthawi idatengedwa mwapadera pomwe, chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa kukula, cholakwika chawo chinali chocheperako). Tsoka ilo, sikunali kotheka kuwonjezera chitsanzo cha Sechin, chifukwa sikutheka kubwezeretsa mawonekedwe ake. 

Monga homuweki, yesani kubweza posewera ndi ma CAGR osiyanasiyana. Mapeto ake adzakhala odziwikiratu: njira zowonetsera zimanenedweratu bwino ndi zitsanzo za exponential.

Ndipo monga chitumbuwa pa keke, apa pali kulosera kwa BP yemweyo, amene ("Chenjezo, akatswiri akugwira ntchito!") exponent amapereka njira kukula liniya mu kulosera: 

Source: Zowonjezedwanso gawo lamagetsi opangira mphamvu ndi gwero (kuchokera ku BP)

Chonde dziwani kuti samawerengera mphamvu ya hydropower konse, yomwe imayikidwa ngati gwero lamphamvu longowonjezera. Chifukwa chake, kuyerekezera kwawo ndikokhazikika kwambiri kuposa kwa Sechin, ndipo amapereka 12% yokha ya 2020. Koma ngakhale mazikowo atatsitsidwa ndipo kukula kokulirapo kuyima mu 2020, mu 2040 ali ndi gawo 29%. Sizikuwoneka ngati Sechin's 16% ... Ndi vuto linalake ...

Zikuwonekeratu kuti Sechin ndi munthu wanzeru. Ndine katswiri wa masamu ndi ntchito, osati injiniya wamagetsi, kotero sindingathe kupereka yankho loyenerera ku funso lokhudza chifukwa cha zolakwika zazikuluzikulu zomwe Sechin analosera. Mwachidziwikire, chowonadi ndichakuti izi zimamveka ngati kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta. Ndipo sitima yathu yaikulu yamafuta (yemwe sanamvere nyimbo iyi ya Semyon Slepakov, yang'anani) chifukwa chosadziwika bwino, pali mlingo wokhazikika wa kugulitsa mafuta osakanizidwa kunja, osati mafuta oyeretsedwa. Ndipo ngati mupotoza kwambiri kulosera, ndiye kuti izi zimachotsa (kwa kanthawi, wina angaganize) mafunso osasangalatsa. Koma monga katswiri wa masamu, ndingakonde kuwona cholakwika mwadongosolo pamlingo wa njonda zochokera ku BP omwe sanamvepo zotengera. Sindisamala, ndili m'sitima yomweyo.

Chiwerengero:

• Monga momwe akuluakulu onse amadziwira, muzochitika zankhondo mtengo wa nthawi zonse π (chiŵerengero cha kuzungulira kwa bwalo mpaka m'mimba mwake) umafika 4, ndipo mwapadera - mpaka 5. Choncho, pamene kuli kofunikira, kuneneratu kwa akatswiri amawonetsa ZINTHU ZONSE zofunidwa ndi aboma. Ndikoyenera kukumbukira izi.
• Njira zowonetsera zimanenedweratu bwino pogwiritsa ntchito kuchuluka kwapachaka, kapena CAGR.
• Zoneneratu za Sechin pa Msonkhano Wadziko Lonse wa Zachuma ku St. Petersburg zitha kuonedwa ngati kusalemekeza omvera monyanyira kapena ngati kusokoneza koopsa. Kuti tisankhepo. Tiyerekeze kuti padzakhala anthu olimba mtima amene adzafunsa mafunso osasangalatsa. Mwachitsanzo, chifukwa chiyani mafuta a petrochemicals padziko lonse lapansi ndi opindulitsa kwambiri, koma makampani a boma la Russia amagulitsa mabiliyoni ambiri mu "chitoliro" ndi kutumiza kunja kwa zipangizo, osati mmenemo? 
• Ndipo potsiriza, Ndikufuna ndikuyembekeza kuti mmodzi wa owerenga kupanga tsamba za CAGR mu Russian Wikipedia. Ndi nthawi, ndikuganiza.

mphamvu ya dzuwa

Tiyeni tiphatikize mutu wa njira zofotokozera. Tchati chaposachedwa cha BP chikuwonetsa momwe gawo la "dzuwa" lidalumphira kwambiri mu 2020, ndipo ngakhale BP yokhazikika imakhulupirira zamtsogolo. Chochititsa chidwi n'chakuti, ndondomeko yowonjezereka imawonedwanso kumeneko, yomwe, monga lamulo la Moore, yakhala ikuchitika kwa zaka zoposa 40 ndipo imatchedwa Swenson's Law:

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson’s_law 

Tanthauzo lake ndi losavuta - mtengo wa gawoli ukutsika kwambiri ndipo kupanga kukukulirakulira. Chotsatira chake, ngati zaka 40 zapitazo inali teknoloji yokhala ndi cosmic (m'lingaliro lililonse) mtengo wamagetsi, ndipo inali yabwino kwambiri yopangira ma satellites, ndiye lero mtengo wa watt wagwa kale pafupifupi nthawi 400 ndipo ukupitiriza kugwa ( posachedwa 3 malamulo). CAGR wapakati pamtengo ndi pafupifupi 16% ndikuwonjezeka mpaka 25% pazaka 10 zapitazi, zomwe sizichitika kawirikawiri.

Chotsatira chake, izi zimabweretsanso kukula kwachidziwitso cha mphamvu zokhazikitsidwa ndi kupanga:

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics 

Kukula ndi ka 10 pazaka 7-8 ndizovuta kwambiri (werengerani CAGR nokha, mudzapeza 33-38% (!)). Ndizoseketsa, koma ngati siziyimitsidwa, ndiye kuti mphamvu yadzuwa yokhayo ipanga 100% yamagetsi padziko lapansi pazaka 12. Izi ziyenera kuthetsedwa mwachangu. Kuti mwanjira ina achedwetse manyaziwa ku United States, Trump chaka chatha adayambitsa ntchito yayikulu (yamisika ina) 30% pantchito yoitanitsa ma solar. Koma a Chinese otembereredwa pofika kumapeto kwa chaka adachepetsa mitengo ndi 34% (pachaka!), Osangochotsa ntchitozo, komanso kupanga kugula kuchokera kwa iwo kukhala kopindulitsanso. Ndipo akupitiriza kumanga mafakitale a robotic ndi kupanga makumi a gigawatts a mabatire pachaka, mobwerezabwereza kuchepetsa mitengo ndi kuonjezera mavoti opanga. Ndi mtundu wamaloto owopsa, mungavomereze.

Kutsika kwa mtengo wa mabatire ndi kotero kuti m'zaka zaposachedwa sanakhale opikisana popanda thandizo, koma malire a ntchito yawo yotsika mtengo akuyenda mofulumira kumpoto kumpoto kwa dziko lapansi, kuphimba mpaka mazana a makilomita pachaka. Komanso, dzulo chabe kunali kofunika kutsogolera mabatire pa ngodya yabwino ndi zonsezo. Zaka 3-4 zimadutsa, ndipo pamtengo womwewo malo okulirapo a mabatire atha kukhazikitsidwa pamawonekedwe akum'mwera. Inde, sizothandiza kwenikweni, koma zimafunikira kutsukidwa pafupipafupi komanso zosavuta kuziyika. Ndipo pamtengo woyika womwewo, kuchepetsa mtengo wa umwini ndikofunikira kwambiri. 

Apanso, chidendene cha Achilles cha mphamvu ya dzuwa ndichopanga magetsi osagwirizana, makamaka m'mikhalidwe yomwe kusungirako bwino kumakhala kutali ndi 100%. Ndiyeno zikuoneka kuti ndi mlingo wotere wa kuchepa kwa mtengo kupanga megawati imodzi, posachedwapa osati otsika ndi pafupifupi dzuwa la kusungirako ataphimbidwa (ndiko kuti, akhoza kusungidwa mochepa imayenera, koma njira yotsika mtengo) , komanso mtengo woyika mabatire (ndiko kuti, kwa ndalama zomwezo, sitingathe kuyika ma megawati ambiri am'badwo, komanso ma megawati ambiri osungira "mwaulere", omwe amasintha kwambiri zinthu).

Chiwerengero:

• Lamulo la Swenson ndilofanana ndi Lamulo la Moore potengera kuvomerezeka, ngakhale CAGR ndiyocheperako. Koma ndendende m'zaka khumi zikubwerazi zotsatira zake zidzawonekera kwambiri.
• Uwu ndi mutu wosiyana kotheratu, koma chifukwa chakukula mwachangu kwa dzuwa ndi mphepo, mabiliyoni ena openga adayikidwa m'makina osungira mphamvu zamafakitale mzaka zitatu zapitazi. Mwachibadwa, Tesla ali pano kutsogolo ndi PowerPack yanu, zomwe zinasonyeza zotsatira zabwino ku Australia. Ogwira ntchito gasi nkhawa. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, zosangalatsa sizinayambe, popeza matekinoloje angapo akuwopseza kuti atenge Li-Ion pamtengo wosungira. Komabe, iyi ndi nkhani yosiyana kwambiri, tidzakhala ndi chidwi ndi CAGR yawo m'zaka zingapo (tsopano ndizabwino, koma izi zotsatira zotsika).

Magalimoto amagetsi

Akatswiri ozama analemba m’magazini olemekezeka kwambiri a Scientific American kalelo mu 1909 kuti: “Chenicheni chakuti galimoto yafika polekezera kukula kwake chikutsimikiziridwa ndi chenicheni chakuti m’chaka chapitacho sipanakhalepo masinthidwe amtundu waukulu.” Chaka chatha panalibe kusintha kwakukulu kwa magalimoto amagetsi mwina. Izi zimapereka zifukwa zotsimikizira ndi chidaliro chonse kuti galimoto yamagetsi yafika kale pachimake cha chitukuko chake. 

Chofunikira kwambiri, pali vuto la "nkhuku ndi dzira" mumatekinoloje ambiri. Mpaka kupanga kwakukulu kufika pamlingo wina, ndizokwera mtengo kwambiri kuyambitsa zatsopano zingapo, ndipo, m'malo mwake, mpaka zitayambitsidwa, kugulitsa kumachepetsedwa. Iwo. Kuti mugonjetse "matenda aubwana" kupanga kochuluka kumafunika. Ndipo apa ndikosavuta kuyesa matekinoloje atsopano ndi kuchuluka kwa kupanga kwamunthu aliyense:

Source: Magalimoto amagetsi ndi "mafuta apamwamba". Choonadi mu chitsanzo

Sindine katswiri ndipo sindikudziwa momwe magalimoto amagetsi adzasinthira zaka 15 zikubwerazi. Koma izi ndithudi ndi mankhwala apamwamba kwambiri, ndipo amasintha mofulumira. Ndipo mlingo wa magalimoto amakono amagetsi ndi mlingo wa magalimoto omwe ali ndi injini zoyaka mkati mwa 1910 ndi mlingo wa mafoni a m'manja mu 1983. Kusintha kwabwino (kwa ogula) m'zaka zotsatira za 15 zidzakhala zodabwitsa. Ndipo ndipamene zosangalatsa zimayamba. 

Nthawi zambiri, magalimoto amagetsi amakankhidwira patsogolo ndi zinthu zitatu:

• Mukakwera gasi, mumawulukira kutsogolo, ngati mugalimoto yamasewera, ndipo mtengo wake ndi wotsika kwambiri kuposa wagalimoto yamasewera. Ndipo magalimoto amagetsi amawapeza panjira zazifupi (Tesla X adadutsa Lamborghini, Tesla 3 idutsa Ferrari, mwachitsanzo, pachifukwa ichi Tesla amagula apolisi) Ndi wapolisi uti waku Russia waku America yemwe sakonda kuyendetsa galimoto mwachangu?
• Kubwezeretsanso ndikotsika mtengo kwambiri, ngati sichoncho. Roman Naumov amakhala ku Canada (@siti) zimayambitsa kupsa mtima, kufotokoza momwe iye, matenda, adayendetsa makilomita 600 kunja kwa mzindawo, akugwiritsa ntchito $ 4 pa mafuta (kapena sanagwiritse ntchito konse). Elon Musk, ndikukumbukira, adadandaula kuti eni ake ambiri olemera a Teslas okwera mtengo amayendetsa ku Supercharger yaulere, freebie yotembereredwa. Mwachidule, mafuta atsala pang'ono kuchotsedwa kuzinthu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito.
• Ndipo akatswiri onse amanena mogwirizana kuti matenda a ana akachira, galimoto yamagetsi imakhala yotsika mtengo kwambiri kuisamalira. IZI zikhala zotsika mtengo kwambiri. Iwo amati matayala okha ndi amene amayenera kusinthidwa pafupipafupi, amatha...

Ndipo, ndithudi, chakuti galimotoyo ikhoza, makamaka, kuimbidwa kulikonse kumene kuli kotulukira - uku ndikusintha. Ndiko kuti, ngati magetsi afika kwa agogo anu kumudzi, mukhoza kubwera kwa iye ndikuwonjezeranso, ngakhale motalika. Inde, simungathe kuyendetsa mpikisano wa dziko, koma 99. (9)% ya anthu amabwera kumudzi, ndiyeno galimotoyo imakhalapobe. Ndipo mawa sichidzangoyima, koma kuwononga magetsi pamtengo wotsika mtengo wamudzi. 

Zachidziwikire, pali ma charger ochepa, makamaka othamanga, koma ... tiyeni tiwone graph:

Source: Ma E-Car Charging Infrastructure Amakhala Akuluakulu

Chani? Exponential process kachiwiri? Ndi chiyani! Funso likufunsidwa motere: kodi zinthu zidzasintha bwanji ngati zaka 10 zikubwerazi chiwerengero cha malo opangira mafuta chikuwonjezeka nthawi 1000 ("Chikwi, Karl!")? (Iyi ndi CAGR=100%, mwachitsanzo kuwirikiza kawiri pachaka) Pepani, ndinalakwitsa. Chotsatira Zaka 8 1000 nthawi! (Iyi ndi CAGR = 137%, mwachitsanzo, mwachangu kuposa kuwirikiza kawiri pachaka). Ndipo zaka ziwiri za 8 izi zatsala pang'ono kutha ... Ndipo anthu ochokera ku mafakitale amanena kuti m'zaka zotsatira za 8 kukula sikudzakhala 3 maulamuliro a ukulu, koma mofulumira, makamaka ndi mbadwo watsopano wa mafoloko. Kuti mumvetse momwe zidzawonekere, muyenera kubwera ku China. M’malo mwake, m’malo ambiri oimikapo magalimoto muli malo ogulitsiramo magetsi ndipo amamera ngati bowa mvula ikagwa m’nyengo yofunda. Ndipo ngakhale anthu okhala m'nyumba zazitali adzawonjezera sabata paulendo wa Lamlungu kupita ku sinema kapena malo ogulitsira (kumene galimotoyo idayimitsidwa ndikudikirira kwa maola angapo). Ndipo malo ogulitsa ndi malo odyera adzamenyana ndi alendo omwe ali ndi magalimoto amagetsi (akumenyana kale ku China).

Inde, mtengo wamagalimoto amagetsi ndiwokwera tsopano. Koma batire imapereka gawo lalikulu pamenepo, ndipo mtengo wake umatsika motere: 

Source: Kuseri kwa Zochitika Tengani Mitengo ya Batri ya Lithium-ion

Inde, anavomera! Iyi ndi njira yowonetsera! Ndipo pafupifupi CAGR ndi -20,8%, yomwe, monga tikudziwira, ndiyokwera KWAMBIRI. Ngati 5% ndi ka 2 m’zaka 15, koma 20% ndi ka 10 m’zaka 12 (“Kakhumi, Karl!”):

Ndizoseketsa kuti pamlingo uwu, m'zaka 3-4, m'malo mwa batri imodzi yagalimoto yanu, mutha kugula awiri pamtengo womwewo. Yendetsani yachiwiri mu garaja, ndipo idzakupatsani inu supercharger yanu. Mumabwera kunyumba ndikuwonjezera mafuta. Ndipo pa mlingo wa usiku. Ndipo nyumba yonse idzadyetsedwa pamtengo wausiku. Ndipo kuzima kwa magetsi m'mudzi wa kanyumba sikudzakhalanso nkhawa. Ndipo (kukumbukira CAGR ya "dzuwa") - zidzatheka kukhazikitsa ma solar panel padenga. Kumeneko kuli ndalama zabwino, choncho anthu ambiri anganene kuti: “Zabwino! Nditenga! Malizitsani! (kwambiri mu Europe и United States, Ndithudi).

Ndi chinthu chodabwitsa, pambuyo pake, njira zofotokozera izi. M'zaka zikubwerazi za 10, tidzawonadi kupita patsogolo kwakukulu pamagalimoto amagetsi ndipo magalimoto amakono amagetsi adzawoneka ngati ovuta kwambiri komanso omvetsa chisoni. Palibe kusungirako mphamvu, palibe autopilot, muyenera kunyamula gulu la adaputala ... Zitsanzo zoyambirira, mwachidule.

Chiwerengero:

• Magalimoto amagetsi adagulitsidwa ku China mu theka loyamba la 2019 66% kuposa theka loyamba la 2018. Nthawi yomweyo, kugulitsa magalimoto okhala ndi injini zoyatsira mkati kunatsika ndi 12%. Si belu, ndi goli. 
• Odziwika kwambiri pakati pa magalimoto amagetsi ndi, ndithudi, Tesla. Koma ndikukopa chidwi chanu kwa Achitchaina BYD. Mwina amaoneka kwambiri kulonjeza.
• Ku China, ziphaso zamagalimoto zamagalimoto amagetsi ndizobiriwira. Akuluakulu akulonjeza kuti posachedwa pamasiku a utsi “wofiira” adzasiya kulola magalimoto onse kupatula magetsi apakati pa Beijing. Makampani a taxi akugula magalimoto amagetsi ndi masauzande ambiri. Wolembayo adakwera taxi yotere, zikuwoneka zochititsa chidwi. 

Kodi chikuchitika ndi chiyani mu IT?

Lamulo la Moore lidadziwika bwino chifukwa lidakhala ndi CAGR yayikulu pafupifupi 41% kwa zaka pafupifupi 40. Ndi zitsanzo zina ziti za CAGR yabwino zomwe zili mu IT? Pali ambiri aiwo, mwachitsanzo, kukula kwachuma kwa Google ndi CAGR ya 43% pazaka 16:

Source:  Zotsatsa za Google kuyambira 2001 mpaka 2018 (madola mabiliyoni aku US)

Kuyang'ana pa graph iyi, anthu ena (makamaka omwe mapulogalamu awo adaletsedwa ku Google Play Store) sanamve bwino. Pali zambiri zoti muganizire pano. Mlungu watha, ndikuyendetsa galimoto, foni yamakono inayamba kupitiriza kusonyeza kusintha kwa Google navigation, ngakhale kuti ndinali ndikuyenda kale ndi Yandex.Navigator. Mwina alibenso kukula kwa msika wokwanira, koma akuyenera kukweza ndalama, ndimaganiza. Ndipo ndinaganizanso za izo.

Komabe, palinso ma graph omwe ali ndi chiyembekezo chaukadaulo, mwachitsanzo, owonetsedwa pamlingo wa logarithmic, kutsika kwa mtengo wa malo a disk komanso kuchuluka kwa liwiro la ma intaneti pofika chaka cha 2019:

Source: Kugwa Kwambiri Pamtengo Kukulimbitsa Kusintha Kwina Kwamakompyuta 

Ndikosavuta kuzindikira kuti pali chizolowezi chofikira kumtunda, i.e. kukula kumachepa. Komabe, iwo anakula bwino kwa zaka zambiri. Mukayang'ana ma hard drive mwatsatanetsatane, mutha kuwona kuti kubwereranso kotsatira kwa exponent nthawi zambiri kumatsimikiziridwa ndiukadaulo wotsatirawu:

Source: Technologies Storage Lero ndi Mawa  

Chifukwa chake tikudikirira ma SSD kuti apeze ma HDD ndikuwasiya kutali.

Komanso, ndi CAGR yabwino kwambiri ya 59%, mtengo wa ma pixel a makamera a digito unagwa nthawi imodzi (lamulo la Handy): 

Source: Chilamulo cha Hendy

Zaka 10 zapitazi zawonanso kuchepa kwakukulu kwa kukula kwa pixel ya kamera.  

Komanso, ndi CAGR yabwino pafupifupi 25% (ka 10 m'zaka 10), mtengo wa pixel wa chiwonetsero chodziwika bwino wakhala ukutsika kwa zaka pafupifupi 40, pomwe kuwala ndi kusiyana kwa ma pixel zikuchulukiranso (ie, apamwamba kwambiri). amaperekedwa pamtengo wotsika). Mwambiri, opanga sakudziwanso komwe angayike ma pixel. Ma TV a 8K ndi otsika mtengo kale, koma zomwe mungawonetse pa iwo ndi funso labwino. Nambala iliyonse ya ma pixel imatha kuyamwa ndi autostereoscopy, koma pali zovuta zomwe sizinathetsedwe pamenepo. Komabe, iyi ndi nkhani yosiyana. Mulimonsemo, kutsika kosangalatsa kwa mtengo wa pixel kumabweretsa autostereoscopy pafupi.

Kuphatikiza apo, kufalikira kwakukulu kwa ntchito zambiri zamapulogalamu:

Source: Mapulatifomu Aukadaulo Ogwiritsa Ntchito Biliyoni 

Mwachitsanzo, AppleTV kapena Facebook. Ndipo, monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, makamaka chifukwa cha malo ochezera a pa Intaneti, kuthamanga kwa kufalitsa kwatsopano kumawonjezeka. 

Chiwerengero: 

• Makamaka chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwazaka 20 zapitazi, makampani a IT adasamutsa ena pamndandanda wamakampani akulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Ndipo alibe cholinga choimitsa (Chilichonse chomwe akutanthauza).
• Kusintha kwa matekinoloje ambiri mu IT ndikokulirapo. Kuphatikiza apo, zokhotakhota zowoneka ngati S, pomwe ukadaulo umodzi umalowa m'malo mwa wina, nthawi iliyonse kupangitsa kuti wina abwererenso kumlingo wokulirapo.

Neural network 

Ma Neural network akhala otchuka kwambiri posachedwa. Tiyeni tiwone kuchuluka kwa ma patent pazaka zaposachedwa:

Damn ... Zikuwoneka ngati wowonetsanso (ngakhale kuti nthawiyo ndi yochepa kwambiri). Komabe, ngati tiyang'ana zoyambira kwa nthawi yayitali, chithunzicho chimakhala chofanana (nthawi 14 pazaka 15 ndi CAGR ya 19% - yabwino kwambiri):

Source: AI index, Novembala 2017 (inde, inde, ndikudziwa zomwe zili m'zaka zitatu zikubwerazi) 

Nthawi yomweyo, ma neural network m'malo ambiri amawonetsa zotsatira zabwinoko kuposa munthu wamba:

Source: Kuyeza Kukula kwa Kafukufuku wa AI

Ndipo chabwino, zotsatira zake zikakhala pa ImageNet (ngakhale zotsatira zake zachindunji ndi m'badwo watsopano wa maloboti amakampani), koma pakuzindikira mawu chithunzi chomwecho:

Source: Kuyeza Kukula kwa Kafukufuku wa AI

M'malo mwake, ma neural network angopambana kwambiri kuposa anthu wamba pakuzindikira zolankhula ndipo akuyenda bwino kwambiri m'zilankhulo zonse wamba. Momwemo, monga tidalembera, kukula kwa liwiro la neural network accelerators kuyenera kukhala kokulirapo. 

Pamene akuseka pamutuwu, si kale lomwe tinaganiza kuti: inde, posachedwa ma robot adzatha kuchita zamatsenga pamlingo wa nyani, ndipo ankaganiza kuti ndi kutali kwambiri ndi msinkhu wa munthu wopusa, ndipo makamaka. Einstein:

Source: The AI ​​Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence 

Koma mwadzidzidzi zidapezeka kuti mulingo wa munthu wamba wafika kale (ndipo ukupitilizabe kufikitsidwa) m'madera ambiri), komanso pamlingo waukadaulo wosowa (monga mpikisano ndi munthu mu chess ndi Go adawonetsa) mtundawu unakhala wocheperako kuposa momwe amayembekezera:

Source: Kuyeza Kukula kwa Kafukufuku wa AI

Mu chess, anthu odziwika bwino adagwidwa pafupifupi zaka 15 zapitazo, ku Go - zaka zitatu zapitazo, ndipo zomwe zikuchitika ndizodziwikiratu:

Source: The AI ​​Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence 

Monga wodziwika bwino wamkulu wa General Electric a Jack Welch adanenapo kuti, "Ngati kusintha kwakunja kuli kwakukulu kuposa kusintha kwamkati, mapeto ali pafupi." Iwo. Ngati kampani sikusintha mwachangu kuposa momwe zinthu zimasinthira, ili pachiwopsezo chachikulu. Tsoka ilo, adasiya ntchito zaka 18 zapitazo, ndipo chuma cha GE chafika poipa kuyambira pamenepo. GE sikuyenda ndi zosintha.

Kukumbukira zoneneratu za telefoni ndi akatswiri a Western Union, kulosera kwa Lord Kelvin, kuyerekezera kwa msika kwa makompyuta apanyumba a Digital Equipment ndi mafoni a m'manja a Microsoft, motsutsana ndi zomwe Sechin analosera, ndakhala ndikudandaula. Chifukwa mbiri imadzibwereza yokha. Ndipo kachiwiri. Ndipo kachiwiri. Ndipo kachiwiri.

Akatswiri ambiri, ataphunzira gawo lawo kusukulu / kuyunivesite, amasiya kupita patsogolo. Ndipo kulosera kumapangidwa pogwiritsa ntchito matekinoloje azaka zapitazi (m'lingaliro lililonse). M'zaka zaposachedwa, ndakhala ndikuzunzidwa ndi funso: Kodi ma neural network asintha bwanji akatswiri omwe sadziwa kugwiritsa ntchito CAGR? Ndipo ine ndikungofuna kwenikweni kupanga kulosera, ndipo ine ndikuwopa kulakwitsa. Kufikira pansi, monga mukumvetsetsa.

Koma mozama, kufulumira kwa kusintha kuli ngati mphepo. Ngati mukudziwa kuyika zombo moyenera (ndipo bwato likugwirizana), ndiye kuti ngakhale mphepo yamkuntho sikudzakulepheretsani kupita patsogolo, ngakhale ndi mphepo yamkuntho, komanso CAGR yaikulu !!!

Wodala CAGR kwa aliyense amene wamaliza kuwerenga!

DUP
Habraeffect ikugwirabe ntchito! Patsiku lomwe nkhaniyi idasindikizidwa, nkhani idatuluka CAGR mu Russian Wikipedia! Chitsanzo sichinamasuliridwebe, koma chiyambi chapangidwa kale. Tsopano inu mukhoza kuwona ndi za ndalama kapena apa za matekinoloje okhala ndi zinthu zopusitsa osunga ndalama

ZothokozaNdikufuna kuthokoza moona mtima:

• Laboratory of Computer Graphics VMK Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov chifukwa cha thandizo lake pakupanga zithunzi zamakompyuta ku Russia ndi kupitirira apo,
• panokha Konstantin Kozhemyakov, yemwe adachita zambiri kuti nkhaniyi ikhale yabwino komanso yomveka bwino,
• ndipo potsiriza, zikomo kwambiri kwa Kirill Malyshev, Egor Sklyarov, Ivan Molodetskikh, Nikolai Oplachko, Evgeny Lyapustin, Alexander Ploshkin, Andrey Moskalenko, Aidar Khatiullin, Dmitry Klepikov, Dmitry Konovalchuk, Maxim Velikanov, Alexander Yakovenko wa chiwerengero chachikulu cha Evgeny Kukuptsov ndemanga ndi zosintha zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mawuwa akhale abwino kwambiri!

Source: www.habr.com