Lamulo la Moore linapangidwa zaka zoposa makumi asanu zapitazo. Pa nthawi yonseyi, anakhalabe wachilungamo nthawi zambiri. Ngakhale lero, pochoka ku njira yaukadaulo kupita ku ina, kachulukidwe ka transistors pa chip pafupifupi kuwirikiza mu kukula. Koma pali vuto - liwiro la chitukuko cha njira zatsopano zamakono akuchepa.
Mwachitsanzo, Intel idachedwetsa kupanga mapurosesa ake a 10nm Ice Lake kwa nthawi yayitali. Pomwe chimphona cha IT chidzayamba kutumiza zida mwezi wamawa, kulengeza kwa zomangamanga kunachitika mozungulira awiri ndi theka zaka zapitazo. Komanso mu Ogasiti watha, wopanga dera lophatikizika GlobalFoundries, yemwe adagwira ntchito ndi AMD, anasiya chitukuko Njira zaukadaulo za 7-nm (zambiri pazifukwa za chisankhochi zomwe takambirana mu blog yathu pa Habre).
Atolankhani ΠΈ atsogoleri amakampani akuluakulu a IT Papita zaka zambiri kuchokera pamene akhala akulosera za imfa ya lamulo la Moore. Ngakhale Gordon mwini kamodzi ananenakuti lamulo lomwe adapanga lisiya kugwira ntchito. Komabe, lamulo la Moore si njira yokhayo yomwe ikutaya kufunika kwake komanso omwe opanga mapurosesa akutsatira.
Lamulo lokulitsa la Dennard
Idapangidwa mu 1974 ndi mainjiniya komanso wopanga kukumbukira kwamphamvu DRAM Robert Dennard, pamodzi ndi anzawo aku IBM. Lamulo likuyenda motere:
"Pochepetsa kukula kwa transistor ndikuwonjezera liwiro la wotchi ya purosesa, titha kuwonjezera magwiridwe ake mosavuta."
Lamulo la Dennard lidakhazikitsa kuchepetsedwa kwa makulidwe a conductor (njira yaukadaulo) ngati chizindikiro chachikulu chakupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo waukadaulo wa microprocessor. Koma lamulo lokulitsa la Dennard linasiya kugwira ntchito chakumapeto kwa 2006. Chiwerengero cha ma transistors mu tchipisi chikupitilira kukula, koma izi sichimapereka kuwonjezeka kwakukulu ku magwiridwe antchito.
Masiku ano, mainjiniya akugwira ntchito paukadaulo watsopano womwe ungathetse vutoli ndikuwonjezera magwiridwe antchito a microcircuits. Mwachitsanzo, akatswiri ochokera ku Australia kulitsa transistor yachitsulo-to-air yomwe imakhala ndi mafupipafupi mazana angapo a gigahertz. Transistor imakhala ndi maelekitirodi awiri achitsulo omwe amakhala ngati kukhetsa ndi gwero ndipo amakhala pamtunda wa 35 nm. Amasinthanitsa ma electron wina ndi mzake chifukwa cha zochitikazo zotulutsa zamagetsi zamagetsi.
Malinga ndi omangawo, chipangizo chawo chidzapangitsa kuti asiye "kuthamangitsa" kuti achepetse njira zamakono ndikuyang'ana kwambiri pakupanga mapangidwe apamwamba a 3D okhala ndi ma transistors ambiri pa chip.
Kumi Rule
Wake zopangidwa mu 2011 ndi pulofesa wa Stanford Jonathan Koomey. Pamodzi ndi anzawo aku Microsoft, Intel ndi Carnegie Mellon University, iye anasanthula zambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pamakompyuta apakompyuta kuyambira ndi kompyuta ya ENIAC yomangidwa mu 1946. Zotsatira zake, Kumi adafika pamalingaliro awa:
"Kuchuluka kwa computing pa kilowatt ya mphamvu yomwe ili pansi pa static load ikuwonjezeka chaka chilichonse ndi theka."
Mu 2015, Kumi anabwerera ku ntchito yake ndikuwonjezera phunzirolo ndi deta yatsopano. Anaona kuti zimene ananenazo zayamba kuchepa. Avereji ya tchipisi pa kilowati iliyonse ya mphamvu yayamba kuwirikiza kawiri pafupifupi zaka zitatu zilizonse. Zomwe zidasintha chifukwa cha zovuta zomwe zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi tchipisi tozizira (tsamba 4), popeza kukula kwa transistor kumachepa, kumakhala kovuta kuchotsa kutentha.
Tekinoloje zatsopano zoziziritsa za chip zikupangidwa pano, koma palibe zonena za kukhazikitsidwa kwawo kwakukulu. Mwachitsanzo, opanga mayunivesite ku New York adakonza ntchito Makina osindikizira a laser 3D ogwiritsira ntchito wosanjikiza wowonda wowongolera kutentha wa titaniyamu, malata ndi siliva pa kristalo. Kutentha kwazinthu zoterezi ndikwabwinoko ka 7 kuposa kaphatikizidwe kawo kotentha (phala lotentha ndi ma polima).
Ngakhale zili choncho malinga ndi Kumi, malire amphamvu ongoyerekeza akadali kutali. Iye anatchula kafukufuku wa katswiri wa sayansi ya zakuthambo Richard Feynman, amene ananena mu 1985 kuti mphamvu zopanga mapurosesa zidzawonjezeka nthaΕ΅i 100 biliyoni. Pa nthawi ya 2011, chiwerengero ichi chinawonjezeka 40 zikwi.
Makampani a IT adazolowera kukula mwachangu pamagetsi apakompyuta, kotero mainjiniya akufunafuna njira zowonjezera Lamulo la Moore ndikuthana ndi zovuta zomwe zimakhazikitsidwa ndi malamulo a Coomey ndi Dennard. Makamaka, makampani ndi mabungwe ofufuza akuyang'ana m'malo mwaukadaulo wakale wa transistor ndi silicon. Tidzakambirana za njira zina zomwe zingatheke nthawi ina.